# Will Democrats ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2014, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925 "2014-11-06T21:14:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/121 "2014-11-10T22:00:28Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > (post shortened) > > How many dedicated democrats actually watch FOX? Are you suggesting that many potential Democrat voters didn’t bother going to the polls because FOX news convinced not to go? I find that difficult to believe. It couldn’t be because the potential Democrat voters knew what the issues were (including your 1-pony show) and simply aren’t buying what the Democrats are selling? > > Wasn’t MSNBC/DNC available to present the opposing viewpoint? Couldn’t they convince the potential Democrat voters to go to the polls and vote? Of course you need to learn to not shorten quotes because you them miss the point: > [@](#): > > Science does not change just because you want to ignore it, it does affect the bottom line, and the wackiness of what many Republicans do think and want to do as a result was ignored a lot, not just by many Democrats, but by the important independent and moderate Republican voters. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/122 "2014-11-10T22:07:44Z")
Ran out of edit time: In this election and in many others it was the missed information and sometimes the manufactured one that misled many of the ones that counted the most. In an election with depressed Democratic voters the important independent and moderate Republican voters were very important. Most democrats IMHO had no enthusiasm as many important issues like this one was not in the front and as Bill Moyers showed, this issue was a good test to see how other wackiness like denial of evolution and other science matters remains a problem for most of the current Republican crop. It is clear to me (after seeing many posts from moderate Republicans or independents in the SDMB) that many moderate Republicans or independents do remain ignorant about what they just voted for. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/123 "2014-11-10T22:55:15Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Heh. Heh heh. > > I know the leadership has declared this, but there is a significant wing of their party that is going to be hair-on-fire pissed if all of those things don’t happen. And they can’t just hand wave them away. > > This is going to be good. Heh. The Tea Party didn’t have a majority even back then, they don’t now. What they did have was the loyalty of the base and the establishment feared the base. This election was a win for the establishment and they hold the cards now. All they have to do to avoid shutdowns is to let Democrats vote with them. And they probably won’t even need to do that. Ted Cruz is about the only guy still interested in those kinds of tactics. And that’s because he doesn’t care about the party, he just wants to be President. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/124 "2014-11-11T00:47:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Tea Party didn’t have a majority even back then, [Snip] And still they got to humiliate the speaker and other leaders on several occasions, the reality is that it is not just the Tea Party; many other conservatives are acting unreasonably. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/125 "2014-11-11T00:52:50Z")
And many are learning. Rand Paul supported the shutdown, now thinks it was a dumb idea. Same for Mike Lee. I’m sure many others who aren’t willing to diss Ted Cruz publicly agree. There will be no shutdown, no impeachment, no debt default threats. The crazy will be limited to actually passing bills that the President will sign or veto + rejecting many of his nominees. So, you’d better have a plan for 2016 that doesn’t revolve around portraying Republicans as fanatical extremists. Because that was the strategy this year. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/126 "2014-11-11T01:02:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And many are learning. Rand Paul supported the shutdown, now thinks it was a dumb idea. Same for Mike Lee. I’m sure many others who aren’t willing to diss Ted Cruz publicly agree. “Rarely is the question asked: Is our partiers learning?” (Paraphrasing Bush the lesser) 🙂 > [@adaher](#): > > There will be no shutdown, no impeachment, no debt default threats. The crazy will be limited to actually passing bills that the President will sign or veto + rejecting many of his nominees. > > So, you’d better have a plan for 2016 that doesn’t revolve around portraying Republicans as fanatical extremists. Because that was the strategy this year. Not really as I pointed before, but I do agree that the abortion angle was not a very useful one, but I expect the Republicans to make moves that will make many moderates flinch at what the Republicans will attempt to make on that issue. And no, as you were wrong by assuming that just because the Tea Party was not a majority that that is why the Republicans did behave. Indeed there was no need for them to be a majority to make a lot of damage. As for the crazy being limited, it is clear that you are aware of the problem, they will create plenty of examples of their nuttiness with the reasons that they will find to pass useless and “vetoed on arrival” legislation and the reasons they will use to reject his nominees. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/127 "2014-11-11T01:09:18Z")
That’s still the Republicans’ big weakness, but even if they perform as expected in that regard, it will take more to beat them than the messaging the Democrats came up with in 2014. The GOP from 2011-2012 was uniquely nutty and did some rather unprecedented things which the Democrats were able to capitalize on. The GOP from 2015-2016 can be expected to behave more like the GOP we’ve all grown to know and love, which the Democrats have had a harder time beating, although they still do it often enough with good candidates and good messaging. In other words, we’re not just going to give you the rope to hang us with anymore. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/128 "2014-11-11T01:11:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And many are learning. Rand Paul supported the shutdown, now thinks it was a dumb idea. Same for Mike Lee. I’m sure many others who aren’t willing to diss Ted Cruz publicly agree. Speaking of the leaders with more power now, and what are they learning actually: This Tweet was just reported on the Pit: ““Net Neutrality” is Obamacare for the Internet; the Internet should not operate at the speed of government.” - Ted Cruz :rolleyes: > [@adaher](#): > > In other words, we’re not just going to give you the rope to hang us with anymore. Oh, Really? As one commenter in Tweeter puts it: “If the internet ran at the speed of @SenTedCruz we’d all still be on dial-up.” 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/129 "2014-11-11T01:14:38Z")
Yeah, it’s not the smartest tweet ever made, but I tend to tentatively side with the GOP on this one. I support net neutrality in theory, but I’m just not convinced that we should be introducing major government regulation into the internet on the pretext of keeping it free. When an actual problem arises, then I’ll be convinced that the government should get involved. Right now, I just think Democrats are trying to seize on fear to justify the government regulating the internet. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/130 "2014-11-11T01:16:27Z")
Normally I do not post stuff from the pit, but **elucidator** said something that is appropriate here: > [@Stupid Republican idea of the day](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-republican-idea-of-the-day/490897/17833): > > Ted is gonna be the gift that keeps on giving. Mitch McConnell will age ten years in the next six months. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/131 "2014-11-11T01:19:40Z")
Heh. I just responded to it as well. I’ll summarize here: Mitch has forgotten more about politics than Ted will ever know. Mitch has the savvy, the numbers, and the power. Ted squandered most of his political capital already. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/132 "2014-11-11T01:23:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Heh. I just responded to it as well. I’ll summarize here: > > Mitch has forgotten more about politics than Ted will ever know. Mitch has the savvy, the numbers, and the power. Ted squandered most of his political capital already. I would agree if it wasn’t for the fact that he got more supporters _in the house_ now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/133 "2014-11-11T02:26:43Z")
Not really. The bigger majority actually makes things easier for Boehner. He doesn’t need Tea Partiers or Democrats to pass bills anymore. McConnell still does, thus his promise to allow unlimited amendments. That gets enough Democrats on board to pass bills that otherwise might not pass thanks to Cruz. Or if they don’t bite, maybe Tea Partiers will get some minor things they want. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/134 "2014-11-11T03:03:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not really. The bigger majority actually makes things easier for Boehner. He doesn’t need Tea Partiers or Democrats to pass bills anymore. Again, that is not supported by what has happened before… when less Tea Partiers and very conservative guys where present. > [@adaher](#): > > McConnell still does, thus his promise to allow unlimited amendments. That gets enough Democrats on board to pass bills that otherwise might not pass thanks to Cruz. Or if they don’t bite, maybe Tea Partiers will get some minor things they want. Now on the senate side, so far this is hypothetical, we will see. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/135 "2014-11-11T04:15:27Z")
Will Marshall with an outstanding(at least IMO) analysis of where it all went wrong and how it can be better for Democrats: > **[How Democrats Can Recover](https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-democrats-can-recover)** > > Time for new leadership and bolder ideas that appeal to the rest of America. How progressives can start working now to create a post-Obama party that can win. He must have been reading my posts.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/136 "2014-11-11T04:36:15Z")
BTW, a snippet from this article should provide a lesson that Democrats need to stop assuming that the Republicans will be crazy. It screws up their negotiating strategy: [http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/midterm-disaster-rips-apart-awkward-ties-between-obama-and-senate-democrats/2014/11/05/5bdd257a-650e-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d\_story.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/midterm-disaster-rips-apart-awkward-ties-between-obama-and-senate-democrats/2014/11/05/5bdd257a-650e-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.html) > [@](#): > > ``` > Many Democrats figured that once the cliff had been jumped [that is, once taxes automatically rose for everyone on the expiration of the Bush tax cuts--RP], all the leverage would be in their hands and they could extract even deeper concessions from Republicans, particularly on across-the-board spending cuts that they wanted to nix. > > Reid and McConnell engaged in some brief talks — talks that included a key mistake by Democrats: They made an offer on the tax levels, and Republicans actually accepted it. There were other key issues to resolve, but once that central issue was settled, the momentum headed toward resolution. > > At that point, McConnell called Biden and famously asked: “Does anyone down there know how to make a deal?” > > Reid, Schumer and other leaders and their advisers then waited to see the final details, furious that the deal was being made. > > ``` This is why I don’t usually give Obama much credit for his supposed attempts to reach across the aisle. It’s easy to look like you’re doing it when you know they’ll say no and then you can claim you tried. But on this particular issue, the Republicans surprised by saying, “Yes” and the Democrats were completely caught off guard. ---
**Author:** ![sinjin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@sinjin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sinjin)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/137 "2014-11-11T05:03:54Z")
If you had read Nate Silver starting about 9 months ago you would not be surprised at the election results. The fundamentals were against Dems this cycle. They will be with Dems next cycle. So it goes. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/138 "2014-11-11T05:20:14Z")
The fundamentals are not with either party yet because they are unknown. The President’s approval rating and the state of the economy are very important factors. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/139 "2014-11-11T11:44:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The fundamentals are not with either party yet because they are unknown. We know that [more Senate Republican incumbents](http://www.periodicalpress.senate.gov/reelection-2016/) will be exposed than Democrats. That will not change. That was a major factor in 2014, and it will be a major factor in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925/140 "2014-11-11T14:43:18Z")
That’s not really a “fundamental” in the sense of Silver’s model though. It’s just pure arithmetic. you’re right that the map favors Democrats in 2016, but the governors’ map favored Democrats in 2014 and the Senate map favored Republicans in 2012. In both cases the side with the more favorable map lost ground. If the fundamentals like the state of the economy and OBama’s popularity are poor in 2016, the Democrats will have major problems. And if he’s popular and the economy is good, they’ll do very well. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-democrats-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/703925.md?page=8)