# Will efficiency and new sources compensate for peak oil ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 15, 2013, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368 "2013-08-15T23:44:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/21 "2013-08-17T21:18:08Z")
What I expect is that the bottom half or more of the population in the U.S. and a lot higher in the third world will be in a lot of economic pain. This not only because of peak oil, but also climate change, banking system based on a house of cards, exploding health care costs, baby boomer retirement… ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/22 "2013-08-17T21:21:43Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > If you mean “is there enough for us to use it at the same rate we do now over those decades”, then I suppose there’s some question there (not sure if it is “big” but whatever). If you mean that there won’t even be enough to actually provide the power to build that “huge new infrastructure”, leaving us just collapsing into a Dark Ages for want of power, then you are talking nonsense. Hmm… will it, won’t it ? … don’t know - what’s the math here ? It’s a science problem, there should be a numerical proof. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/23 "2013-08-17T22:55:48Z")
I’m pretty certain that in less than a hundred years, you’ll be able to put water and powdered coal in a fermentation tank, add a culture of genetically engineered bacteria, and after a few weeks draw off a liquid hydrocarbon equivalent to kerosene or diesel fuel. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/24 "2013-08-18T00:31:35Z")
I’m pretty certain that in less than a hundred years, we’ll all be dead. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DrFidelius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drfidelius/32/3447_2.png) [@DrFidelius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrFidelius)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/25 "2013-08-18T01:09:50Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m pretty certain that in less than a hundred years, we’ll all be dead. 😉 Speak for yourself, John. Give me immortality. or give me death! ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/26 "2013-08-18T01:38:01Z")
It will never be efficient to move a half ton of metal approximately 50 miles at a high speed on a daily basis. No matter what the source of energy, that is a massive undertaking. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/27 "2013-08-18T02:24:33Z")
I think solar power is going to really take off in the near future- see it’s dramatic drop in price in[this chart.](http://www.resilience.org/articles/General/2013/04_Apr/disruptive-solar.png) As others have pointed out though, our infrastructure, especially for transportation, is built around oil. It will take a long time before that changes, but eventually it will happen. ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/28 "2013-08-18T04:49:16Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > This is possibly not correct. Should someone figure out how to economically synthesise oil hydrocarbons - that’s ab initio, and not using something like the Fischer-Tropp process - then there will be no peak oil. Unless you invent some form of Perpetual motion machine there will still need to be some even more massive source of energy to synthesize them. Where does that energy come from? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/29 "2013-08-18T07:00:48Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > Unless you invent some form of Perpetual motion machine there will still need to be some even more massive source of energy to synthesize them. > > Where does that energy come from? Most likely nuclear power. But where it comes from is irrelevant. Oil’s great advantage is that it’s an easily portable store of energy whereas electricity isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Ken001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/43a26b/32.png) [@Ken001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ken001)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/30 "2013-08-18T10:28:41Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Most likely nuclear power. But where it comes from is irrelevant. Oil’s great advantage is that it’s an easily portable store of energy whereas electricity isn’t. Yes and that is the core problem. At present we can fill a can with enough easily released energy to destroy a house. And the can isn’t heavy - you can wander down the road with it. The beauty and the curse of oil is that it is wonderful stuff just brim full of latent energy and we harness it is so many ways. Plastics are so common that we throw them away but they only exist through the gift of oil. Food is produced through using fertilisers and much fertiliser comes from oil. So far there is no substitute which comes close for low cost production, easy safe portability, and the wide range of uses oil/gas/coal gives us. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 10:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/31 "2013-08-18T10:47:34Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I think solar power is going to really take off in the near future- see it’s dramatic drop in price in[this chart.](http://www.resilience.org/articles/General/2013/04_Apr/disruptive-solar.png) > > As others have pointed out though, our infrastructure, especially for transportation, is built around oil. It will take a long time before that changes, but eventually it will happen. Wait a minute, that chart, what are the axes measuring and why is oil at 40-50 all the way along ? Oil dollars/gigajoule should be way up by 2010. I go here for an easy data set on such things [http://www.earth-policy.org/data\_center/C23](http://www.earth-policy.org/data_center/C23) ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/32 "2013-08-18T15:34:10Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Most likely nuclear power. But where it comes from is irrelevant. Oil’s great advantage is that it’s an easily portable store of energy whereas electricity isn’t. It would most likely be more efficient to deliver the electricity directly to the transportation method vs convert it into complex hydrocarbons. One gallon of gasoline is equal to about 34Kwh of electricity. Even if they could do 100% efficiency that would put the cost of production at about the cost of gas per gallon right now (assuming 11 cents/kWh). Also note that 80% of consumption is on local roads and highways, those local trips do not require the huge power densities provided by hydrocarbon fuel. Cite [http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/energy/uses/transportation.php](http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/energy/uses/transportation.php) ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/33 "2013-08-18T17:28:37Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > Wait a minute, that chart, what are the axes measuring and why is oil at 40-50 all the way along ? > > Oil dollars/gigajoule should be way up by 2010. > > I go here for an easy data set on such things [http://www.earth-policy.org/data\_center/C23](http://www.earth-policy.org/data_center/C23) I’m having trouble finding a chart of the cost of solar power over time on that site. [This](http://i0.wp.com/cleantechnica.com/files/2011/06/solar-pv-cost-trend.png) is a good depiction. I can’t see why solar won’t undermine other forms of generation on cost in the next few years- in some places it already has. [Here](http://chartsbin.com/view/oau) is an historical oil price chart. It is not specifically in gigajoules, but you can see the trend. It just makes sense that when gas gets too expensive relative to electricity, people will want to make the transition, regardless of whether there is an actual physical oil shortage. Oil is certainly more convenient to work with, but that doesn’t matter once you can’t afford it. As for nuclear, I think it is simply going to be too expensive. Factor in the fact that we are entering a period of potentially catastrophic water shortages thanks to fracking and the water demands of nuclear make it look that much more undesirable. And we still have no plan for dealing with the waste. Now, when someone says anything negative about the prospects of nuclear power on this board, sooner or later someone will be along to accuse you of some kind of political bias or personal fault. Me, I just don’t see the numbers adding up. And compare: Nuclear: Not In My Back Yard! Solar: I’ll pay to install it in my back yard. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/34 "2013-08-18T19:36:44Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I’m having trouble finding a chart of the cost of solar power over time on that site. [This](http://i0.wp.com/cleantechnica.com/files/2011/06/solar-pv-cost-trend.png) is a good depiction. I can’t see why solar won’t undermine other forms of generation on cost in the next few years- in some places it already has. > > [Here](http://chartsbin.com/view/oau) is an historical oil price chart. It is not specifically in gigajoules, but you can see the trend. It just makes sense that when gas gets too expensive relative to electricity, people will want to make the transition, regardless of whether there is an actual physical oil shortage. Oil is certainly more convenient to work with, but that doesn’t matter once you can’t afford it. > > As for nuclear, I think it is simply going to be too expensive. Factor in the fact that we are entering a period of potentially catastrophic water shortages thanks to fracking and the water demands of nuclear make it look that much more undesirable. And we still have no plan for dealing with the waste. Now, when someone says anything negative about the prospects of nuclear power on this board, sooner or later someone will be along to accuse you of some kind of political bias or personal fault. Me, I just don’t see the numbers adding up. And compare: > > Nuclear: Not In My Back Yard! > Solar: I’ll pay to install it in my back yard. The good thing about those charts is they show exponential growth - which is a very trendy topic, Kurzweil and all that. Also why he says solar will be dominant and providing all power by 2020. Agree with nuclear, Fukushima isn’t over yet. I’d like to see solar succeed in a big way, not least because some of the poorest places have some of the best sunshine. The US is lucky in this respect too because it’s got big deserts and sub tropical regions. But it would have to not only be cheaper than the current $100 plus oil, it would have to be cheaper than pre 2008 oil too. As it stands a lot of advanced countries see stagnant or falling wages and rising energy costs as well as rising debt which is a recipe for failure. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/35 "2013-08-18T20:59:06Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > I’d like to see solar succeed in a big way, not least because some of the poorest places have some of the best sunshine. The US is lucky in this respect too because it’s got big deserts and sub tropical regions. > > But it would have to not only be cheaper than the current $100 plus oil, it would have to be cheaper than pre 2008 oil too. It looks like it will get there- prices for solar seem to be dropping exponentially. It is just a matter of time before it reaches just about any given price point (maybe it will max out at a penny per watt or something, we’ll see). > [@](#): > > As it stands a lot of advanced countries see stagnant or falling wages and rising energy costs as well as rising debt which is a recipe for failure. Right. It depends on what kind of peak oil scenario we see, if any. If peak oil just isn’t happening soon, alternatives like solar can replace fossil fuels at their own pace (aside from global warming considerations). If peak oil takes the form of price pressure, the switch will probably be messy and involve a lot of suffering because a lot of people won’t be in a financial position to, say, buy a new car or home, or even afford inflated prices for staple goods. If it takes the form of physical shortages, before a new way of doing things is put in place there will probably be huge chaotic problems with massive poverty, unemployment, famine, unrest and so on- kind of like our world today, only with less fuel. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/36 "2013-08-18T21:03:04Z")
> [@rat\_avatar](#): > > Also note that 80% of consumption is on local roads and highways, those local trips do not require the huge power densities provided by hydrocarbon fuel. The highways don’t but the local roads will. The cost of electrifying all those roads will be phenomenal. And how far will an electric car go off-road? I’ve yet to read of any effective electric farm vehicles. Where are the electric combine harvesters? And where are the electric tipper trucks? Cherry-pickers? Aeroplanes? ---
**Author:** ![rat\_avatar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rat_avatar/32/255_2.png) [@rat\_avatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rat_avatar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/37 "2013-08-18T21:27:35Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The highways don’t but the local roads will. The cost of electrifying all those roads will be phenomenal. And how far will an electric car go off-road? I’ve yet to read of any effective electric farm vehicles. Where are the electric combine harvesters? And where are the electric tipper trucks? Cherry-pickers? Aeroplanes? Strawman but those are far smaller consumers of energy and could use bio fuel or Ammonia over electric. But those needs are tiny compared to the transportation needs to get Joe to the mall or Sally to the office. Plus it is Joe and Sally which will be hit the hardest by the rise in energy prices and are the ones who will find cheaper options out of need. They will not have the economic resources to do so with an incredibly inefficient synthetic “oil”. ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/38 "2013-08-18T21:41:08Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > It looks like it will get there- prices for solar seem to be dropping exponentially. It is just a matter of time before it reaches just about any given price point (maybe it will max out at a penny per watt or something, we’ll see). > Right. It depends on what kind of peak oil scenario we see, if any. If peak oil just isn’t happening soon, alternatives like solar can replace fossil fuels at their own pace (aside from global warming considerations). If peak oil takes the form of price pressure, the switch will probably be messy and involve a lot of suffering because a lot of people won’t be in a financial position to, say, buy a new car or home, or even afford inflated prices for staple goods. If it takes the form of physical shortages, before a new way of doing things is put in place there will probably be huge chaotic problems with massive poverty, unemployment, famine, unrest and so on- kind of like our world today, only with less fuel. Well, I haven’t looked for a while, but usually the date for peak oil is given at around 2006. So are we in the early stages of that scenario already ? Certainly I’ve had to change my lifestyle to accomodate oil prices, but they are manipulated heavily beyond rises in production cost. Places that have peaked are definitely going to see problems - Egypt, Mexico etc ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/39 "2013-08-18T21:45:35Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > The highways don’t but the local roads will. The cost of electrifying all those roads will be phenomenal. And how far will an electric car go off-road? I’ve yet to read of any effective electric farm vehicles. Where are the electric combine harvesters? And where are the electric tipper trucks? Cherry-pickers? Aeroplanes? The first things I would want to see are electric ambulances, tractors, public transport. Trains have been successfully electric for years, no problem there. Get the essentials done and think about cars later. I don’t live in the US though, and that might be too much like communism for Americans. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2013, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368/40 "2013-08-18T23:27:52Z")
I think that even if Q appeared and decided to instantly remove all the remaining deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas from the ground, while also removing all the nuclear power plants and all the potential fuel for same, we’d still recover and rebuild a high-tech civilisation built around solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, and (unfortunately) hydroelectric sources. We’d have to conserve on plastic and be sure to recycle it carefully; and we’d end up using a lot more wood and metal. But we could bootstrap our way up: harnessing a wind farm to power a factory to make more turbines and blades; using a solar array to build more solar panels; etc. It would be a huge shock and be turbulent, and most people would have to go without power for a few years. Lots of famine and unrest. But I firmly believe we’d emerge from it with a high-tech world with an impressive level of carefully designed efficiency built in. Since Q is not real, of course, it will happen differently and perhaps not be as carefully designed a system, but the transition will surely be less painful even if more prolonged. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-efficiency-and-new-sources-compensate-for-peak-oil/666368.md?page=3)