# Will Egypt Have an Iran-Style Revolution? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 30, 2011, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520 "2011-01-30T16:48:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2011, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/61 "2011-02-01T21:07:38Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Except that they have the bridge logs and after action reports from the Vincennes, which goes into the details of the incident, how it transpired and the events leading up to it. > > Other than that, no…there is no way to ‘prove’ that the US didn’t deliberately do it. No way to prove that it wasn’t an Iranian plot that took over control of a US missile cruiser and fired the missiles to make the US look bad. Or that it was actually space aliens that did it. Just like it’s impossible to ‘prove’ that the US wasn’t directly involved in 9/11, and that bringing down the twin towers wasn’t a government conspiracy. > > However, the preponderance of evidence is that it was an accident caused by the heightened tensions and errors in judgment all around. And that doesn’t even get into the dispute about whether the IFF was received and believed, or some of the other more controversial issues involved in the incident. > > -XT Not to mention that the incident did far more to hurt the US and help the Iranian government than the opposite. You’ll notice that Dick doesn’t even provide a reason why the US would want to do this and what they thought they might gain from it. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/62 "2011-02-02T18:09:30Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Like I said, if you think there is only one proper way to spell Alawite using the Roman alphabet you don’t understand how the transliteration of Arabic words works. > > That said, the fact that I typed “Aliwite” rather that “Alawite” was a typo. > > I never said that. I’m merely pointing out that I’ve read what Khomeini actually wrote and spoke whereas you’ve given no indication that you have. > > You seem to be ignoring the fact that spreading the Islamic revolution throughout the Middle East was one of the founding principals of the Iranian regime. > > I believe you’ve gotten the timeline confused. You seem to be implying that the taking of hostages occurred following the start of the Iran-Iraq War. > > In fact, the Iran-Iraq War started nearly a year after the hostage crisis while Iran still had hundreds of American hostages. > > So, once again, claiming that the US’ support for the Iran-Iraq War was anger over the overthrow of the Shah as opposed to the US supporting the attack on a country holding 52 Americans hostages is ridiculous. > > Beyond that, I’m a bit shocked that you think invading an Embassy and taking “a few hostages”(52 is a few) is a good thing. > > Actually yes, much of what’s happened does bother me. As for the Shah, yes I think he was horrible and my father hated him, but the Shah’s government wasn’t remotely as horrible as the Mullahs who followed him. > > Also, the Shah was not an “imposed dictator” but a “twice imposed dictator”. The first time he was imposed was during WWII because his father wouldn’t play ball with the British and let them use his country to supply the Russians. > > Whenever I bring this up to people furious over the overthrow of Mossadegh and then ask them how outraged they are by that coup they usually get looks on their faces similar to that of a bull being turned into a steer and they start sputtering about how the UK had to do “whatever was necessary” to fight against the Nazis. > > What they fail to recognize is that the people who got rid of Mossadegh thought the same thing. They were convinced that Mossadegh would become an ally of the Soviet Union similar to Nasser(though Nasser publicly denied being one) and that this would give the Soviets a huge strategic advantage. > > Now obviously, I opposed both coups, and I assume you opposed both coups as well, but I can certainly see why others don’t. > > I could explain my own personal feelings regarding the Iranian government in greater detail but that would take far too long and this is an extremely complex subject. > > You seem genuinely concerned about the issue for which I do salute you, but you also seem to want to see it as a simple black and white issue which it most certainly is not. > > I find the idea that the Bush administration was behind 9/11 to be far more plausible. > > Moreover, you’re right, I can’t prove that the US didn’t deliberately shoot down the airliner. I can’t prove a negative. > > I also can’t prove that the Illuminati didn’t kill JFK or the Pope. > > I’m not sure how many Sunni and Christian Lebanese view Hezbollah as freedom fighters. > > I’m also not sure why you think of people who blow up Jewish community centers in Argentina are “freedom fighters”. > > If the people who blow up Jewish community centers in Argentina are “freedom fighters” does that also mean that Jewish community centers in the US are acceptable targets as well? I know Khomeini wanted to see Islamic revolutions all over the Middle East. But all extremist movements set out grand goals and just do what they can towards achieving them. Al Quaeda want to aee a Sunni ummah. The IRA wanted a united Ireland with a classical Trotskyist government. Khomeini and the Iranian 1980s Iranian regime wanted ideally revolutions everywhere, but even the most starry-eyed Shiite revolutionary couldn’t have looked at the Lebanese civil war and thought that there was any chance of establishing an Islamic government there. So they did what they could to further their geostrategic position, which was to create as much trouble for America and the Zionist entity as they possibly could. America wanted to overthrow the Iranian regime and encouraging Saddam to invade and getting their local clients to support him was a good way of furthering _their_ geostrategic aims. I don’t think taking hostages was a good thing to do but after decades of US-backed tyranny and then the Great Satan refusing to hand over the Shah for trial, totally understandable. I didn’t live under either Iranian government so couldn’t comment on who is worse. While the vast majority of Iranian youth are against the current regime, and understandably so, it does still have a lot of support from older Iranians. I’d say they’re in the minority but that the current regime still has far more support than the Shah did circa 1979. I know they Shah was imposed twice but the second time was because Mossadeq nationalised Iran’s oil. Britain actually asked Truman to support a coup in 1951 when Iran nationalised their oilfields but Truman said no. It was only in 1953 that Eisenhower took office and agreed to overthrow Iran and a bunch of other governments who were running resource-rich countries followed over the next few years. The threat of Mossadeq becoming an ally of the USSR was the reason given over the years for the coup but Kermit Roosevelt, Teddy’s grandson and the CIA agent in charge of the coup made the motivations for the whole thing public in later years from the Brits starting the ball rolling in 1951 to the actual coup. Like everything else we were doing in the region at the time and for the half century before, it’s all about the oil baby. I don’t think the Bush administration were behind 9/11 and I don’t know who shot JFK. I don’t believe any conspiracy theories but I don’t believe America accidentally shot down a civilian airliner. It doesn’t matter how it made America look. The Middle East is mainly going to believe we shot it down on purpose anyway, the US public the opposite, but when has America ever given a shit about Middle Eastern public opinion? Lots of Sunni and Christian Lebanese think that the mighty Hezbollah are freedom fighters. There was a huge outpouring of love all over the Middle East for Hezbollah after they kicked the Zionist entity out of Lebanon for a second time in 2006 but especially in Lebanon : - The stakes are high for Hizbullah, but it seems it can count on an unprecedented swell of public support that cuts across sectarian lines.According to a poll released by the Beirut Center for Research and Information, 87 percent of Lebanese support Hizbullah’s fight with Israel, a rise of 29 percent on a similar poll conducted in February. More striking, however, is the level of support for Hizbullah’s resistance from non-Shiite communities. Eighty percent of Christians polled supported Hizbullah along with 80 percent of Druze and 89 percent of Sunnis. Lebanese no longer blame Hizbullah for sparking the war by kidnapping the Israeli soldiers, but Israel and the US instead. The latest poll by the Beirut Center found that 8 percent of Lebanese feel the US supports Lebanon, down from 38 percent in January.\* > **[Israeli strikes may boost Hizbullah base](https://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0728/p06s01-wome.html/%28page%29/2)** > > Hizbullah support tops 80 percent among Lebanese factions. After it was all over Sheik Nasrallah was the most popular leader in the Middle East by a country mile. And not only in the Middle East. I was in Amsterdam during the conflict with my girlfriend and in the student areas around the university the amount of Hezbollah and Palestinian flags hanging out of the windows was amazing. Lots of shops were selling flags and yellow Hezbollah T-shirts. And yes we both bought one. Also Hezbollah deny blowing up any community centres. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/63 "2011-02-02T18:28:55Z")
Standard fact checking: [ > [@](#): > > BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — A Hezbollah militant has been identified as the suicide bomber who flattened a Jewish community center in 1994, killing 85 people in Argentina’s worst terrorist attack, prosecutors said Wednesday. > > Prosecutors said the breakthrough in the 11-year-old case came when investigators traveled to Detroit, where friends and relatives identified Ibrahim Hussein Berro, a Lebanese citizen, in a photograph. > > Hussein Berro, a 21-year-old Lebanese citizen who “belonged to Hezbollah,” was driving the van packed with explosives July 18, 1994, when it exploded outside the Argentine Israeli Mutual Aid Association, prosecutor Alberto Nisman alleged. > > The blast leveled the seven-story building, a symbol of Argentina’s more than 200,000-strong Jewish population. ]([http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9983810/ns/world\_news-terrorism/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9983810/ns/world_news-terrorism/)) And a bit on Hezbollah and and their lunatic leader, Nashrallah (readers can ponder, for themselves, why people support an organization like that): [ > [@](#): > > "If they (Jews) all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide. (Daily Star, Oct. 23, 2002) " > > “If we searched the entire world for a person more cowardly, despicable, weak and feeble in psyche, mind, ideology and religion, we would not find anyone like the Jew. Notice, I do not say the Israeli. (New Yorker, Oct. 14, 2002)” ]([Hassan Nasrallah: In His Own Words | CAMERA](http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=7&x_issue=11&x_article=1158)) [ > [@](#): > > Hezbollah has been at the vanguard of this shift toward frank anti-Semitism, and its leaders frequently resort to epidemiological metaphors in describing the role of Jews in world affairs. Ibrahim Mussawi, the urbane and scholarly-seeming director of English-language news at Al Manar, called Jews “a lesion on the forehead of history.” A biochemist named Hussein Haj Hassan, a Hezbollah official who represents Baalbek in the Lebanese parliament, told me that he is not anti-Semitic, but he has noticed that the Jews are a pan-national group “that functions in a way that lets them act as parasites in the nations that have given them shelter.” ]([In the Party of God | The New Yorker](http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2002/10/14/021014fa_fact4?currentPage=all)) [ > [@](#): > > Mr el Batal was invited to Geneva by IHEU at our expense to speak about human rights abuse by Hezbollah in Lebanon before, during and since the conflict with Israel. > > At the beginning of his presentation, Mr el Batal made clear that he did not support Israel, had no dealings with Israel and condemned all human rights abuse wherever or by whoever it was committed. Certainly, some of the statements made by Al-Akhbar as having been made by Mr el Batal are accurate because he was reporting known facts, such as the teaching of hatred of the Jews to children as young as five years of age in Lebanon, and attacks by Hezbollah on civilians in Lebanon. ]([Humanists International](http://www.iheu.org/node/2390)) [ > [@](#): > > One might think that wide-screen images of the aliens’ annihilation of the White House, Manhattan and Los Angeles in less than 15 minutes of gory celluloid would exhilarate America’s foreign enemies. But Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite Muslim radicals who accuse the ‘‘great Satan’’ of fomenting conspiracies against Arabs and Muslims throughout the Middle East, despises the film almost as much as it does America. > > Last fall, Hezbollah, or the Party of God, issued a statement calling the film ‘‘propaganda for the so-called genius of the Jews and their alleged concern for humanity.’’ Warning Muslim believers to boycott the movie, which was directed by Roland Emmerich, who is not Jewish but German, Hezbollah reminded fellow Muslims that paying money to see the the film would ‘‘reward the bloodsuckers of Qana,’’ a reference to Israel (which bombed Qana, a U.N. camp in Lebanon), and Israel’s protector, the United States. ]([http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C07E7DB1F3BF935A15752C0A961958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all](http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C07E7DB1F3BF935A15752C0A961958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all)) ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/64 "2011-02-02T18:47:25Z")
No suspects have been convicted of the bombing and there have been many allegations made, including those blaming the government of Iran.[_[citation needed](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)_] These investigations were marred by incompetence;[_[citation needed](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)_] former [President](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Argentina) [Nestor Kirchner](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestor_Kirchner) called them a “national disgrace” in 2005. In 1999 an arrest warrant was issued against Hezbollah member [Imad Mugniyah](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imad_Mugniyah) in connection with the attack.[[16]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing#cite_note-15) Argentine justice accused Tehran in 2006 of being behind the attacks, allegedly because of Buenos Aires’ decision to suspend a nuclear material delivery and technology transfer.[_[citation needed](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)_] **[[edit](http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1994_AMIA_bombing&action=edit§ion=4)] Ibrahim Hussein Berro** Israeli diplomatic sources who read the “final” report by SIDE on the attack said in 2003 that the attack was a [suicide bombing](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_bombing) carried out by [Ibrahim Hussein Berro](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Hussein_Berro), a 29-year-old Muslim who has been honored with a plaque in southern Lebanon for his martyrdom on July 18, 1994, the date of the bombing. SIDE and the U.S. [Federal Bureau of Investigation](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Bureau_of_Investigation) confirmed this in November 2005.[[17]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing#cite_note-16) Berro’s two brothers, however, had denied this version in April 2005 before a US prosecutor, stating that Berro had died on September 9, 1994 during combat in Lebanon. No proper [autopsies](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopsy) or [DNA](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA) tests were done. The police had dumped a head, thought to be that of the bomber, into a bin.[[6]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing#cite_note-La_Naci.C3.B3n_October_2006-5)[[18]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing#cite_note-BBC_November_2005-17) > **[AMIA bombing |](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AMIA_bombing#Juan_Jos.C3.A9_Galeano.27s_investigations)** > > Federal judge Juan José Galeano followed investigations concerning the "local connection", which included members of the Policía Bonaerense (Buenos Aires Provincial Police). He quickly arrested Carlos Telleldín, alleged to have provided the van used in the bombing, and some 20 officers from the Bonaerense. But a video broadcast on Argentine TV showed him offering Telleldín $400,000, in return for evidence, which led to Galeano's removal from the case in 2003, and his impeachment in August 2005.\[5... ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/65 "2011-02-02T18:53:40Z")
Colbert had Samer Shehata, a Georgetown professor and an Egyptian, on a couple night ago. He claims the “Muslim Brotherhood” is poorly named and is not as religious or strident as most westerners think. He sees them as more middle of the roaders who want Mubarak out. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/66 "2011-02-02T19:51:03Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > **Khomeini and the Iranian 1980s Iranian regime wanted ideally revolutions everywhere, but even the most starry-eyed Shiite revolutionary couldn’t have looked at the Lebanese civil war and thought that there was any chance of establishing an Islamic government there.** So they did what they could to further their geostrategic position, which was to create as much trouble for America and the Zionist entity as they possibly could. Umm… what makes you so sure. The Shia were the largest group in Lebanon, were persecuted and were looking to get revenge for how they’d been treated. Beyond that the Iranian regime does lots of things that are extremely irrational. > [@](#): > > I didn’t live under either Iranian government so couldn’t comment on who is worse. While the vast majority of Iranian youth are against the current regime, and understandably so, it does still have a lot of support from older Iranians. I’d say they’re in the minority but that the current regime still has far more support than the Shah did circa 1979. Saying that the Shah was less popular than the current regime is hardly evidence that the Shah was worse. Lots of people who backed the overthrow of the Shah wound up finding out the hard way that the Mullahs were much worse. Also, the claim that the rule of the Ayatollahs is more brutal than the Shah is an objectively true statement. The Iranian regime has executed far more people and kept far more political prisoners than the Shah. The Iranian regime has also gone to much greater lengths to control the population in its daily lives(I.E. banning ties and short sleeved shirts for men and requiring women to wear the Chador). Moreover the treatment of religious minorities in Iran, Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians has gotten far worse. As for the Bahai, they’re “unpersons” as far as the Iranian government is concerned. They’re not allowed to hold property or have any recognized rights. In fact, the killing of a Bahai is not even technically murder in Iran. I’m sorry, but the idea that it’s subject to debate whether the Shah’s government was worse is ridiculous. > [@](#): > > The threat of Mossadeq becoming an ally of the USSR was the reason given over the years for the coup but Kermit Roosevelt, Teddy’s grandson and the CIA agent in charge of the coup made the motivations for the whole thing public in later years from the Brits starting the ball rolling in 1951 to the actual coup. What are you talking about. Kermit Roosevelt always insisted that overthrowing Mossadegh was because they thought he’d become a Soviet ally. He actually wrote a book proclaiming this called\* Countercoup\* in which he argued that. Now, whether or not he’s right is a different story, but he never deviated from that claim. > [@](#): > > Like everything else we were doing in the region at the time and for the half century before, it’s all about the oil baby. That’s an extremely short-sighted statement. If it was “all about the oil baby” we certainly wouldn’t have supported the UN partition plan and the creation of Israel and we wouldn’t be giving massive amounts of aid to Israel for the last several decades. > [@](#): > > Lots of Sunni and Christian Lebanese think that the mighty Hezbollah are freedom fighters. There was a huge outpouring of love all over the Middle East for Hezbollah after they kicked the Zionist entity out of Lebanon for a second time in 2006 but especially in Lebanon : Have you ever actually been to Lebanon? Yes, many Christians and Sunnis were happy with the Hezbollah when they fought against Israel in 2006, but both before and afterwards most Christians and Sunnis didn’t like them because Hezbollah has made it clear that they’re about the Shia over both. You might as well claim many Shia like the Amal. Lebanon is a much more complicated place than people think. Remember when Israel invaded Lebanon back in the early 80s they were quite literally greeted by crowds of Shia throwing flowers, just as Hezbollah got lots of Christian and Sunni support in 2006. Neither lasted for the same reasons. > [@](#): > > I don’t think the Bush administration were behind 9/11 and I don’t know who shot JFK. I don’t believe any conspiracy theories but I don’t believe America accidentally shot down a civilian airliner. It doesn’t matter how it made America look. I notice you’re refusing to give any evidence to support this conspiracy theory of yours. > [@](#): > > Also Hezbollah deny blowing up any community centres. And OJ insists he didn’t kill his wife. > [@](#): > > No suspects have been convicted of the bombing and there have been many allegations made, including those blaming the government of Iran.[citation needed] These investigations were marred by incompetence;[citation needed] former President Nestor Kirchner called them a “national disgrace” in 2005. In 1999 an arrest warrant was issued against Hezbollah member Imad Mugniyah in connection with the attack.[16] Argentine justice accused Tehran in 2006 of being behind the attacks, allegedly because of Buenos Aires’ decision to suspend a nuclear material delivery and technology transfer.[citation needed] > [edit] Ibrahim Hussein Berro > > Israeli diplomatic sources who read the “final” report by SIDE on the attack said in 2003 that the attack was a suicide bombing carried out by Ibrahim Hussein Berro, a 29-year-old Muslim who has been honored with a plaque in southern Lebanon for his martyrdom on July 18, 1994, the date of the bombing. SIDE and the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed this in November 2005.[17] > Berro’s two brothers, however, had denied this version in April 2005 before a US prosecutor, stating that Berro had died on September 9, 1994 during combat in Lebanon. No proper autopsies or DNA tests were done. The police had dumped a head, thought to be that of the bomber, into a bin.[6][18] > [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994\_AM...investigations](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_AM...investigations) Wikipedia is not a reliable source. There’s a reason most college professors either don’t let their students cite it or strongly discourage it’s use. That’s especially true of any wikipedia page strewn with as many “citation needed” as that one is. > [@](#): > > After it was all over Sheik Nasrallah was the most popular leader in the Middle East by a country mile. And not only in the Middle East. I was in Amsterdam during the conflict with my girlfriend and in the student areas around the university the amount of Hezbollah and Palestinian flags hanging out of the windows was amazing. Lots of shops were selling flags and yellow Hezbollah T-shirts. And yes we both bought one. Since you’ve made it clearly you’re a staunch opponent of bigotry why would you possible want to support an organization that used to allow on it’s website the downloading of _The Protocols of the Elders of Zion_? Why would you want to support such an obviously bigoted organization or do you not consider treating _The Protocols of the Elders of Zion_ as a valid historical document as being anti-Semitic. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/67 "2011-02-02T19:54:44Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Colbert had Samer Shehata, a Georgetown professor and an Egyptian, on a couple night ago. He claims the “Muslim Brotherhood” is poorly named and is not as religious or strident as most westerners think. He sees them as more middle of the roaders who want Mubarak out. I like the idea that the words “Muslim” and “Brotherhood” are somehow crazy inflammatory. I mean, it’s not like they are called the “Scourge of Doom” or something. It’s funny that the very word “Muslim” is enough to give us the heebie-jeebies. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/68 "2011-02-02T20:00:51Z")
That’s hardly fair. Some of us have heard of the Muslim Brotherhood before this week. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/69 "2011-02-02T20:06:22Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > I like the idea that the words “Muslim” and “Brotherhood” are somehow crazy inflammatory. I mean, it’s not like they are called the “Scourge of Doom” or something. It’s funny that the very word “Muslim” is enough to give us the heebie-jeebies. I’d get the ‘heebie-jeebies’ over any organization whose official goal is to institute a theocracy, no matter what religion they were advocating for - even if it officially opposes violence, and those advocating violence have to form splinter groups. > [@](#): > > The Brotherhood’s stated goal is to instill the Qur’an and Sunnah as the “sole reference point for … ordering the life of the Muslim family, individual, community … and state” > **[Muslim Brotherhood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood)** > > Non-state allies: > Affiliated militant groups only: If they were called the “Christian Brotherhood” or “Jewish Brotherhood”, I’d like them no better. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/70 "2011-02-02T20:47:11Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I’d get the ‘heebie-jeebies’ over any organization whose official goal is to institute a theocracy, no matter what religion they were advocating for - even if it officially opposes violence, and those advocating violence have to form splinter groups. [The Fifteen Priniciples of the Islamic Brotherhood](http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=813) > [@](#): > > **15 Principles for Agreement** > > the following 15 principles can be considered a compendium for the democratic principles which we call for. We have declared these principles in public and invited all the political parties and powers in Egypt to support them as a “National Charter”. Also, it was included in my political program for the general elections which took place in Nov., 1995. > > **First:** To confirm unequivocally that people are the source of all power so that it is not permissible for anyone individual, party, group, or institution to claim the right to authority, or to continue in power except with the consent of the people. > > **Second:** Total commitment to, and the respect of, the principle of power exchange through free and fair general elections. > > **Third:** To confirm the freedom of personal conviction (religious conviction). > > **Fourth:** To confirm the freedom of establishing religious rites for all the known heavenly religions. > > **Fifth:** To confirm the freedom of opinion and the right to publicize it, and to call, peacefully, to it, within the limitations of the moral values of society that are detailed in the first section of the constitution. An important consideration in ensuring the above is the freedom of owning and using the different mass media outlets (television, radio, video tapes and equipment, fax machines, newspapers, magazines, books and newsletters). > > **Sixth:** To confirm the right of forming political parties and that no administrative body should have right of restricting or stopping the application of this right. An independent judicial authority should be the only source in confirming what falls outside the ideals and standards of society, or that which can be thought of as a rejection of peaceful political participation. > > **Seventh:** To confirm the right to public gatherings, the invitation to them, and participation in them, all within the limitations of public of public safety, so long as the usage of violence or arms or the threat of doing so is not included. > > **Eighth:** to confirm the right of peaceful demonstrations. > > **Ninth:** To confirm the importance of representing the people through a parliamentary council elected through a free and fair elections, and for a limited period, after which elections are held again. > > **Tenth:** The right of every citizen (man or woman) to take part in parliamentary elections. > > **Eleventh:** The right of every citizen to become a member of parliament through elections. > > **Twelfth:** Ensuring the independence of the judicial system at all levels while taking all the necessary steps and laying down all the conditions to ensure that it is safe from any source fear or manipulation, and that no one is to be tried except by a qualified judge. That all exceptional courts are cancelled, and jurisdiction of the military courts are restricted to cases involving military crimes and violations only. > > **Thirteenth:** separation between the prosecution and investigation authorities, and that the public defense authority should be independent from the minister of justice. Furthermore, whoever it (public defense authority) condemns to imprisonment should the right of appeal to a judicial authority against that decision. > > **Fourteenth:** The army must stay clear of politics, concentrating only on protecting the country"s external security, and that it should not be used, neither directly nor indirectly, by the governing authority in enforcing its wishes and control, or in prohibiting the people"s rights. > > **Fifteenth:** The police and all other security services must protect the security of the nation and as a whole, and that its utilization in maintaining the government or as a means of crushing opposition opinion should be prohibited. A system overlooks its work and leadership, and ensures the above, should be imposed; more specifically, it (security forces) must not be allowed to intervene in political activities and general elections. Let’s see, government by the consent of the governed; participation in free and fair elections and a representative parliment (four times!); freedom of religion (twice!); freedom of speech, and of the press; freedom to form political parties; an independent judiciary; freedom of peaceful assembly and peaceful demonstration; and civilian control of the military and police. Yeah that’s some pretty radical stuff. Better send in Blackwater to exterminate them before it spreads. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/71 "2011-02-02T20:54:28Z")
Well, all that sounds grand, but you didn’t quote this part: > [@](#): > > THE PRINCIPLES OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD > > The call of the Muslim Brotherhood was based on two key pillars: > > 1-The introduction of the Islamic Shari`ah as the basis controlling the affairs of state and society. > 2-Work to achieve unification among the Islamic countries and states, mainly among the Arab states, and liberating them from foreign imperialism. > [@](#): > > FIRST: As for the first pillar, about 97% of the Egyptian people are Muslims, the majority of the Egyptian people are Muslims, the majority of whom perform the rites of worship enjoined by Islam. They abide by the Islamic ethics and apply to themselves to most of the rules whose enforcement does not require any government intervention or license. But legislation, the judiciary and economic and social dealings are founded on non-Islamic bases, thus creating a state of alienation between the people"s creed, on the one side, and their forms of activity which are governed by rules that contradicted their creed, on the other. The lack of any connection between the policies of the authorities in power and the legislations, on the one hand, and the Islamic Shari`ah on the other, led to the emergence of many social, economic, and political practices that are invalid under the Islamic shari`ah. It was incumbent on the Muslim Brotherhood in such a situation to adopt a system for sound Islamic education and the spreading of Islamic principles and ethics as well as the education of the Muslim individual, family, and society into commitment to Islamic ethics and principles. For a state with its government that is committed to Islam cannot be established without a popular base that believes in the Islamic system and is aware of its main ideas. > [@](#): > > SECOND: for the liberation of Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has contributed in an effective strong manner to the struggle against the British imperialist armies occupying Egypt and to the achievement of their evacuation from many Arab and Islamic countries. I don’t think that the IB is the boogie man, and they seem less radical than some, but you need to really look at ALL of their proposals, and then you need to put them in context of the time and the region. They aren’t the Founding Fathers, looking for a mostly secular solution to their countries ills…they are a group of educated and intelligent guys (and I use that term literally) who are working within the context of their religion, and their religious believes. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/72 "2011-02-02T21:07:15Z")
People who worship Hassan Al-Banna and Sayyid Qutb are lots of things, but they’re not moderates. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/73 "2011-02-02T21:14:50Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I’d get the ‘heebie-jeebies’ over any organization whose official goal is to institute a theocracy, no matter what religion they were advocating for - even if it officially opposes violence, and those advocating violence have to form splinter groups. > > If they were called the “Christian Brotherhood” or “Jewish Brotherhood”, I’d like them no better. That’s fine, but this has nothing to do with what **gonzomax** posted. Anyway, if your goal is " the most important thing is that every government in the Middle East shall be entirely secular," you are fighting a long, losing, and ultimately counter-productive battle. Political secularism, frankly, is not a universally shared value and you are not going to sell it to people who don’t value it. The people of some regions overwhelming support a role for religion in the government. I’m an agnostic and as uncomfortable with religion as you are, but clearly many people in Egypt are not. The question becomes, “how can you have a religiously grounded government that still ensures basic human rights.” This is not an impossible task. Every religion is a matter of interpretation. There is nothing in the Quran that is permanently, irreconcilably at odds with providing a level of human rights that are, say, above those of China. Of course there will probably be things we object to- but there is a difference between an obnoxious law on dancing and stoning rape victims to death. A state that is okay with keeping it at the former really wouldn’t be much worse than any of the countless less-than-perfectly-idea-to-our-sensibilities states out there. Personally, I would love to see the creation of a modern, relatively equal, relatively free Islamic state that could act as a model for others. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/74 "2011-02-02T22:00:28Z")
From what I have read of the demonstrators they seem to want less poverty and a better job market. These are secular desires. Unfortunately, there is no way a government can easily decree a better economy. The per capita gross domestic product in Egypt is much lower than in the United States. [https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg®ionCode=af&rank=136#eg](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg®ionCode=af&rank=136#eg) There is also less economic inequality. [https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg®ionCode=af&rank=90#eg](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg®ionCode=af&rank=90#eg) Consequently, there is not very much wealth that a left wing alternative to Mubarak could spread around. Those on the right maintain that all one needs to achieve a prosperous economy is cut taxes and reduce the size of government. Nevertheless, countries with lower taxes and less government than the United States nearly always have lower standards of living. > **[Forbes Misery And Happiness Indexes](https://www.forbes.com/2007/05/03/forbes-misery-data-oped-cx_ja_0503data.html)** > > The burden of taxes and the size of pay envelopes in more than 60 nations at various income levels. Those who expect a secure, satisfying, and well paying job to result from the overthrow of Mubarak will almost certainly be disappointed. Fanaticism, whether it is political or religious, is the cry of pain of those who want what they cannot have. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/75 "2011-02-02T22:07:50Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [The Fifteen Priniciples of the Islamic Brotherhood](http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=813)Let’s see, government by the consent of the governed; participation in free and fair elections and a representative parliment (four times!); freedom of religion (twice!); freedom of speech, and of the press; freedom to form political parties; an independent judiciary; freedom of peaceful assembly and peaceful demonstration; and civilian control of the military and police. > > Yeah that’s some pretty radical stuff. Better send in Blackwater to exterminate them before it spreads. Yeah, 'cause being wary of those advocating a theocracy is exactly the same as calling for their extermination. Methinks that judging the group entirely by a document such as this is a trifle naive. Look for example at the title preceeding the “15 terms” in your link: > [@](#): > > TERMS ALLEGED BY WESTERN MEDIA In short, the “15 terms” are provided expressly as a counter to the charge, in the Western media, that the MB are extremist fanatics. Not so, they say - look at our “15 terms”. Why, we are as democratic and secular-friendly as any Washington! How this meshes with creating a sharia state and a universal caliphate is, of course, an interesting question. One is reminded of: > **[1936 Constitution of the Soviet Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_Soviet_Constitution)** > > The 1936 Constitution of the Soviet Union, also known as the Stalin Constitution, was the constitution of the Soviet Union adopted on 5 December 1936. > The 1936 Constitution was the second constitution of the Soviet Union and replaced the 1924 Constitution, with 5 December being celebrated annually as Soviet Constitution Day from its adoption by the Congress of Soviets. This date was considered the "second foundational moment" of the USSR, after the October Revolution in 1917. The 1936 Constitu... See, how can Stalin be a bad guy? He’s guaranteed democracy and all sorts of freedoms and rights! ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/76 "2011-02-02T22:11:51Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > That’s fine, but this has nothing to do with what **gonzomax** posted. > > Anyway, if your goal is " the most important thing is that every government in the Middle East shall be entirely secular," you are fighting a long, losing, and ultimately counter-productive battle. Political secularism, frankly, is not a universally shared value and you are not going to sell it to people who don’t value it. The people of some regions overwhelming support a role for religion in the government. I’m an agnostic and as uncomfortable with religion as you are, but clearly many people in Egypt are not. > > The question becomes, “how can you have a religiously grounded government that still ensures basic human rights.” This is not an impossible task. Every religion is a matter of interpretation. There is nothing in the Quran that is permanently, irreconcilably at odds with providing a level of human rights that are, say, above those of China. Of course there will probably be things we object to- but there is a difference between an obnoxious law on dancing and stoning rape victims to death. A state that is okay with keeping it at the former really wouldn’t be much worse than any of the countless less-than-perfectly-idea-to-our-sensibilities states out there. > > Personally, I would love to see the creation of a modern, relatively equal, relatively free Islamic state that could act as a model for others. I’m not of the opinion that it is an impossibility, but I am of the opinion that being wary of those advocating a universalist theocracy isn’t exactly without legitimate basis. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/77 "2011-02-02T22:13:58Z")
Whatever government comes next in Egypt, it is going to want that $1.3 billion a year in U.S. aid to continue, which will be contingent on playing nice with Israel. How much Islamism can they **afford?** ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/78 "2011-02-02T22:33:34Z")
Ever read Tuchman’s _March of Folly_? Governments don’t always act in their own interest. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/79 "2011-02-02T22:35:27Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Whatever government comes next in Egypt, it is going to want that $1.3 billion a year in U.S. aid to continue, which will be contingent on playing nice with Israel. How much Islamism can they **afford?** Well, it may be more in the interests of the individuals involved to be in power without the country having that $1.3 billion, than to be out of power. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2011, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520/80 "2011-02-02T22:43:45Z")
Again I stress, Islamist parties have been elected in Iraq and Afghanistan, even in Jordan, I don’t see what the big deal is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-egypt-have-an-iran-style-revolution/569520.md?page=5)