Will Electric Cars Be The Norm In Near Future?

[Balthisar]

@Keweenaw

The Volt will do 100 mph in electric mode. When it’s within it’s 25-50 mile electric mode range, it’s operating as an EV.

Not necessarily:

The fourth and controversial state commences when the vehicle reaches speeds of 70 mph while in extended range mode.

As in EV mode the ring gear is decoupled from the case by the clutch and the smaller electric motor is once again allowed to operate in parallel with the large motor, increasing the system’s efficiency. The difference here is that the smaller motor is still being turned by the engine and not electricity. Thus the engine becomes coupled with both electric motors and all three work together to turn the driveshaft. Thus the gas engine participates in turning the wheels mechanically although indirectly. The generator is decoupled from the ring gear again when speeds drop back below 70 mph.

(cite)

[Evil_Captor]

@Cheesesteak

I consider the Volt an ICE car, because it has an ICE, which frees it from the most limiting aspects of pure electric cars, range.

In order for electric cars to command a majority of the market, they will need to sufficiently cover 95+% of the average person’s driving needs, at prices comparable to ICE cars. If I need a second car to cover trips to Grandma’s house, or our vacation to the Jersey Shore, then 50% of the market is going to be ICE. I can see electric car owners renting a car once or twice a year to cover long trips, but no more often than that.

I don’t see this happening until the range goes up maybe 4 fold over the Leaf, ~400 miles on a charge. With that kind of range, you can make moderately long trips without having to worry about on the road recharging.

Stopping mid trip to recharge is a non-starter. It takes too long to recharge, you’ll need large numbers of high voltage high current charging stations which are tied up a half hour+ at a time, and which most people will avoid using because it’s cheaper to do at home. At best, one could hope to have charging capability at your destination, to do an overnight charge for your return trip. For instance, a hotel can set up charging spaces for guests, paid on their room account.

nah, they’ll just figure out a way to swap out the batteries about as quickly and easily as you tank up for gas.

[Magiver]

The Volt is an extended range hybrid. It’s primary function is to provide enough battery power for someone living close enough to work to average a round trip on battery alone. Due to the current cost of batteries it is not a financially viable car and will not sell enough to justify the investment.

It’s essentially a reworked Prius platform using the same type of transmission but the gear mix is configured to favor a more powerful electric motor (149 hp) through the full range of normal driving. Reprogramming a Prius won’t have the same effect because there isn’t enough hp for the electric motors alone so it really won’t function the same as a Volt.

It’s a good idea that won’t be viable until the cost of batteries comes down and the recharge time improves. GM should have waited until technology catches up to reality.

[Keweenaw]

@Balthisar

Not necessarily:

(cite)

Extended range mode occurs when the battery state of charge drops below a set level. After the 25-50 mile electric range is exhausted.

From your same page you cited.

The third state of the system occurs when the battery state of charge drops to a 20 to 25% state of charge, and extended range or charge-sustaining operation commences. There is still a buffer in the battery used to handle the dynamic responses of the vehicle in this mode.

The operation state you reference in your post is in extended range mode.

In the Chevy Volt thread, Magiver posted a link to this word document that explain the different operation modes well.

Opel | Stellantis

[dotchan]

I hope there’s an option to have it still sound like a car. I’m sure that would help in overcoming some of the stigma that an electric car is somehow “wimpy” just because it doesn’t purr the same way an internal combustion engine does.

(Plus, being able to hear a car coming is very very important, not just people with vision problems.)

[Cheesesteak]

@Evil_Captor

nah, they’ll just figure out a way to swap out the batteries about as quickly and easily as you tank up for gas.

Not going to happen, not with anything resembling today’s technology.

The only swap service of any note today is 20lb propane tanks. This service survives due to a few factors.
Fuel cost is comparable to tank cost ($15 fuel vs $30 tank)
Refueling is not a DIY process while swaps are
Swaps are infrequent
Swaps require no technology beyond a cage with a padlock

With current/near future battery technology
Energy cost is about 1/10% of battery cost ($5 worth of energy* vs $5,000 batteries)
Recharging is a DIY process, swapping is not
Swaps need to be frequent to justify the
Significant technology necessary to manage a quick and easy swap

You need people willing to trade out their brand new $5,000 batteries for used batteries in order to get $5 worth of electricity. You need to set up large service stations with huge battery inventories, and technology to manage the swap, in order to sell $5 refills. Refills that anyone with half a brain would do at home as often as possible.

Your entire business model depends on people swapping out batteries for long holiday/vacation trips.
*Assuming 100 mile range, and electricity being 1/2 the cost of current gasoline prices/technology. 30mpg = 3.33 gallons of $3.00 gas = $10 of gas, or $5 electricity

[aceplace57]

First they have to figure out how to sell electricity for fill ups.

Put one million electric cars on the road. I doubt the malls and merchants will appreciate all those cars plugging in. What about theft? Most houses have outside plugs on their patio. Maybe your neighbor wants a free charge late one night?

There’s a lot to figure out to make it work. How would you even calculate the kilowatts needed to charge a million cars?

[BrotherCadfael]

So we have a car with a 100 mile range. OK, I drive twenty miles to work, so my daily commute (40-50 miles, typically) is well within that range.

Is it still in range at 20 below?

[TimeWinder]

@BrotherCadfael

So we have a car with a 100 mile range. OK, I drive twenty miles to work, so my daily commute (40-50 miles, typically) is well within that range.

Is it still in range at 20 below?

Too early to tell, they’re not selling them (the Volt) anyplace cold for the first year or two.

[Keweenaw]

@TimeWinder

Too early to tell, they’re not selling them (the Volt) anyplace cold for the first year or two.

This is ordering information from the Chevrolet Volt site:

Only Chevrolet Participating Volt Dealers will receive Volt vehicles. We will launch Volt in seven markets, in limited quantities: California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan and Washington D.C. Retail sales will begin in late 2010 in California, the New York Metropolitan Area, Washington DC and Austin, TX. Michigan and the balance Texas, New York State, New Jersey and Connecticut, are scheduled to begin receiving Volts in March of 2011.

I think that covers some cold places.
I just saw that they released the EPA label for the Volt finally too.

Range of 35 miles electric. Then another 344 miles on gas. 93 mpg equivalent.

[Magiver]

@BrotherCadfael

So we have a car with a 100 mile range. OK, I drive twenty miles to work, so my daily commute (40-50 miles, typically) is well within that range.

Is it still in range at 20 below?

Tests on the Volt show that 27 miles would be a realistic distance so figure 67 miles in winter for a car that gets 100 in good weather.

[Magiver]

@Keweenaw

This is ordering information from the Chevrolet Volt site:
Only Chevrolet Participating Volt Dealers will receive Volt vehicles. We will launch Volt in seven markets, in limited quantities: California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan and Washington D.C. Retail sales will begin in late 2010 in California, the New York Metropolitan Area, Washington DC and Austin, TX. Michigan and the balance Texas, New York State, New Jersey and Connecticut, are scheduled to begin receiving Volts in March of 2011.
I think that covers some cold places.

That caught me by surprise. I would like to be a fly on the wall of that marketing decision. I suspect dealerships will have to invest heavily in maintenance support of the car before they can sell them.

This makes me question GE’s statement that they are going to buy 12,000 of them. Do they really have 12,000 executives who get cars to drive and are they located in the areas listed?

[TimeWinder]

@Keweenaw

I think that covers some cold places.

Interesting – when I first saw that list, I must have missed Michigan, which is moderately impressive.

The message I was responding to specifically mentioned 20 below. That’s pretty cold even for Michigan. When I said “anyplace cold,” I meant Northern Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, much of western Canada – the sort of place where -20 (F) isn’t out of the question in a given winter, and electrical starting can be an issue even for well-maintained vehicles.

[Evil_Captor]

@Cheesesteak

Not going to happen, not with anything resembling today’s technology.

The only swap service of any note today is 20lb propane tanks. This service survives due to a few factors.
Fuel cost is comparable to tank cost ($15 fuel vs $30 tank)
Refueling is not a DIY process while swaps are
Swaps are infrequent
Swaps require no technology beyond a cage with a padlock

With current/near future battery technology
Energy cost is about 1/10% of battery cost ($5 worth of energy* vs $5,000 batteries)
Recharging is a DIY process, swapping is not
Swaps need to be frequent to justify the
Significant technology necessary to manage a quick and easy swap

You need people willing to trade out their brand new $5,000 batteries for used batteries in order to get $5 worth of electricity. You need to set up large service stations with huge battery inventories, and technology to manage the swap, in order to sell $5 refills. Refills that anyone with half a brain would do at home as often as possible.

Your entire business model depends on people swapping out batteries for long holiday/vacation trips.
*Assuming 100 mile range, and electricity being 1/2 the cost of current gasoline prices/technology. 30mpg = 3.33 gallons of $3.00 gas = $10 of gas, or $5 electricity

I’m pretty sure battery costs will have to come down an order of magnitude or so before swapping makes snese. And I’m pretty sure they will. Making the swap DIYable is also likely. We’re at the dawn of this tech. We’re like the ones who wondered how roads would be kept clean because the cars we’ve got now spill oil out instead of recycling it, and and shouldjnt you have a horse hitched up to the back of the car just in case?

[drastic_quench]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see recharging lanes on interstates becoming common in thirty years. I envision stretches a few miles long of special lanes with a lower speed limit (more time in the lane) that have wireless charging gizmos buried beneath the macadam.

[Cheesesteak]

@Evil_Captor

We’re at the dawn of this tech.

No, we’re not. Batteries and battery powered cars have been around for over 100 years. The technology has slowly progressed (like all mature techs) and is now at the point where it is viable to power a car with batteries. There’s no reason to think that cutting the cost or weight by an order of magnitude is on the horizon. Anyway, if cost and weight came down like that, the Leaf would be built with a 600 mile range, and who would need to swap out batteries if the car can go that far on a charge?

[Keweenaw]

@Magiver

That caught me by surprise. I would like to be a fly on the wall of that marketing decision. I suspect dealerships will have to invest heavily in maintenance support of the car before they can sell them.

This makes me question GE’s statement that they are going to buy 12,000 of them. Do they really have 12,000 executives who get cars to drive and are they located in the areas listed?

I think that GE announcement was X number of cars was over 5 years.

[Magiver]

@Evil_Captor

I’m pretty sure battery costs will have to come down an order of magnitude or so before swapping makes snese. And I’m pretty sure they will. Making the swap DIYable is also likely. We’re at the dawn of this tech. We’re like the ones who wondered how roads would be kept clean because the cars we’ve got now spill oil out instead of recycling it, and and shouldjnt you have a horse hitched up to the back of the car just in case?

Nobody is going to spend $41,000 for the privilege of swapping batteries. Maybe a business with short haul trucks and a forklift but it’s not going to happen with production cars. That would be like changing a tire every time someone goes to work.