# Will evacuations become mandatory after Katrina? What else will change in the future? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 1, 2005, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634 "2005-09-01T21:04:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/21 "2005-09-03T03:30:18Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > School buses would be driven by school bus drivers, and my WAG would be the school bus drivers weren’t trained into the city’s disaster evacuation plan. Also, in many school systems, school bus drivers are moderately paid independent contactors, not municipal employees, and more often than not are middle aged or older. I’m thinking these people (on a practical level) are not likely to be willing to risk life and limb to stick around and provide driving services when a killer storm is brewing. ---
**Author:** ![Kiminy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Kiminy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiminy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/22 "2005-09-03T05:40:08Z")
> [@carlotta](#): > > Well, I would hope that we’ve learned it’s better to provide free evacuation services to those unable to evacuate themselves than to wait until after the disaster strikes. I agree completely. Everytime I’ve mentioned to someone that there was a “mandatory” evacuation ordered of New Orleans, they point out that there were many people who simply didn’t have the money to evacuate. Now they (the refugees AND the relief organizations AND the government) are paying more to evacuate people that should have left the area in the first place. However, even “mandatory” evacuation orders seem to have had little effect on people who simply chose to ride out the storm, regardless of the consequences, and who are now complaining vocally about how poorly the consequences are being remediated. I have to say that when the weather reports happily declared that the eye of Hurricane Katrina was going to the east of New Orleans proper, my first and only thought was of the catastrophe that was going to result of all that Gulf water being _pushed_ against the NO levies from the storm surge and the wind. If the eye had simply passed over NO or even to the west of NO, maybe the damage would have been less, since there would have been that much less battering of the fortress that kept the water out. Now, I keep thinking about how the local, state, and federal governments will react when there is a truly unpredictable catastrophic occurrence, like a big earthquake in the Midwest or in California. For hurricanes, we DO have the ability to predict to some degree where they will hit, and what level of damage is likely, so evacuation orders can be put in place. For tornadoes in the Midwest, the damage is usually very local–it might be devastating for the locality hit, but it isn’t a disaster at the same level as a hurricane. Even then, those of us in tornado-prone areas generally have a good idea of when tornado-friendly weather is imminent, and we can usually find refuge. For earthquakes, though, we still have no reliable means to predict earthquake events at all, much less their severity. What would LA look like one week after a catastrophic earthquake, with the impact that Hurricane Katrina has had on New Orleans? (The [1906 earthquake](http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/info/1906/casualties.html) in San Francisco was devastating. The [1989 earthquake](http://www.sfmuseum.org/1906/89.html) had a serious impact, but only in very localized areas.) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/23 "2005-09-03T08:34:34Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > What about the elderly? The disabled? People who need oxygen generators? Single parents with small children/infants? What about them? We’d already excluded them. We’re talking about the fit and healthy. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/24 "2005-09-03T08:50:46Z")
> [@astro](#): > > I’m thinking these people (on a practical level) are not likely to be willing to risk life and limb to stick around and provide driving services when a killer storm is brewing. Then give the keys to the people who are willing to take the chance. Driving a bus generally requires a CDL, but it’s not rocket science. Of course fuel would be a problem, but some of them could have gotten full range away from the low land level. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/25 "2005-09-03T09:49:37Z")
If you really want to use school buses, keep in mind that the buses don’t belong to the government, they belong to private companies. So, you’ll have to work out a deal with them that you can commandeer them on short notice. Then you need drivers you know are trained & qualified and can be counted on to show up. For that, the best thing would be to budget for it, and train a bunch of National Guardsmen as bus drivers. It would take a lot of money, planning & coordination, which I gather, Louisiana and New Orleans aren’t known to be very good at. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/26 "2005-09-03T22:28:48Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > If you really want to use school buses, keep in mind that the buses don’t belong to the government, they belong to private companies. So, you’ll have to work out a deal with them that you can commandeer them on short notice. No, that was already covered in the Evacuation Order: “2. In order to effectuate the mandatory evacuation, at the direction of the Mayor, the Chief Administrative Officer, the Director of Homeland Security for the City of New Orleans or any member of the New Orleans Police Department, the City **may commandeer any private property** , including, but not limited to, buildings that may be designated as refuges of last resort and **vehicles that may be used to transport people out the area**.” This does say that “the City” can do this, not just any private citizen. But if you did so, and successfully evacuated a sizable number of people, I doubt you would face any serious penalties. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/27 "2005-09-03T22:44:31Z")
> [@astro](#): > > I’m thinking these people (on a practical level) are not likely to be willing to risk life and limb to stick around and provide driving services when a killer storm is brewing. My proposal was to call for the evacuation about 15-18 hours earlier, which would have put it at 3 – 6 p.m. Sasturday afternoon. The storm track had been focused on a SE LA landfall since 4 p.m. Friday. Had the buses been on the road Saturday night, there would have been no “storm brewing” to contend with. Severe weather did not come to the New Orleans area until early Monday morning. ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/28 "2005-09-03T23:28:15Z")
> [@fifty-six](#): > > I hope you are kidding. > > This is america. We dont shoot thieves. What if they are steeling water and food and diapers and floatation devices? Even a theft of a plasma screen tv doent warrant the death penalty. I personally wouldn’t shoot a woman taking water or baby food, and I doubt militia would. In an emergency situation, because of the value of deterring further looting and trying to maintain some public order, I sure as hell would shoot someone stealing a tv (after 1 warning). > [@](#): > > We are worse at it now than before. How does the one case of NO prove this blanket statement? > [@](#): > > It is not the fault of the survivors in the streets. Athority and civil disorder is not being defied because it does not exist. Whose fault is it? By your logic, if I kill someone unobserved, burn the body completely to ashes and dispose of the ashes tracelessly, a crime has not been committed. My turn to say, “I hope you are kidding.” “…civil disorder is not being defied because it does not exist.” Are you a distant relative of the Chicago Daley clan? > [@Kiminy](#): > > I have to say that when the weather reports happily declared that the eye of Hurricane Katrina was going to the east of New Orleans proper, my first and only thought was of the catastrophe that was going to result of all that Gulf water being _pushed_ against the NO levies from the storm surge and the wind. If the eye had simply passed over NO or even to the west of NO, maybe the damage would have been less, since there would have been that much less battering of the fortress that kept the water out. No, you have it backwards. On the east side of the hurricane the winds are heading north. So if it passed west of NO, the wind would have pushed far more water into NO. My own non-expert opinion, based on the one harrowing warning the NWS issued, is that NO would have been completely leveled, Superdome and all. No survivors. ---
**Author:** ![medstar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f07891/32.png) [@medstar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/medstar)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2005, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/29 "2005-09-04T00:33:59Z")
From what I’ve seen on TV and what I’ve read in the Washington Post newspaper and the numerous threads here, I think that local and state officials should get serious about designing and implementing disaster plans that include everyone. Next time, there will be someone who is designated as a co-ordinator of directing help offered from other states and foreign countries. Every major employer, every health care venue, every school, every place of worship, etc. will have someone designated to co-ordinate instructions about evacuations, emergency locations and supplies, etc. When mandatory evacuations are ordered, convoys of buses will run special routes designed to give everyone a good chance to escape. I’m sure I’ve left out lots of details but I’m hoping that this tragedy teaches a badly needed lesson. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2005, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/30 "2005-09-04T02:12:03Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > What about them? We’d already excluded them. We’re talking about the fit and healthy. When did we exclude them? Are you suggesting they be exlcuded from the evacuation and only fit and healthy people be provided assistace leaving? ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2005, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/31 "2005-09-04T04:55:30Z")
According to the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Evacuation & Sheltering Plan public transportation was supposed to be used for those without means and hospitals/nursing homes were supposed to have a plan to evacuate their patients as part of their license. There are many other provisions that weren’t followed very well. One hole I see in the plans is that the local Parrish is responsible for the last resort refuge (in this case the Superdome) but makes no mention of providing food, water, waste removal, etc. [Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Evacuation & Sheltering Plan](http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/plans/EOPSupplement1a.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![antechinus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@antechinus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antechinus)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2005, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/32 "2005-09-04T10:43:49Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Walked. The TV images I saw a few days ago showed most of the people stranded being frail or obese. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2005, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/33 "2005-09-04T23:10:01Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > No, that was already covered in the Evacuation Order: > > “2. In order to effectuate the mandatory evacuation, at the direction of the Mayor, the Chief Administrative Officer, the Director of Homeland Security for the City of New Orleans or any member of the New Orleans Police Department, the City **may commandeer any private property** , including, but not limited to, buildings that may be designated as refuges of last resort and **vehicles that may be used to transport people out the area**.” > > This does say that “the City” can do this, not just any private citizen. But if you did so, and successfully evacuated a sizable number of people, I doubt you would face any serious penalties. So the city can commandeer the school buses. Who’s got the keys? Who made sure they were gassed up & operational? Who’s driving them? Didn’t 20% of the police force desert? According to this [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina) article, > [@](#): > > Additionally, supporters note that drivers of the school buses must own and maintain an A, B, or C class commercial license for vehicles over 26,000 pounds, and D for commercial vehicles less than 26,000 pounds. School buses filled with children often weigh over 26,000 pounds. To safely operate these buses when filled with adults, drivers would require special licensing and additional training. > > Some evacuees report that the drive from New Orleans to Baton Rouge took anywhere from 5 hours to 9 hours; this drive usually took up to an hour. Reports from the Associated Press state that 80% of the near 500,000 had evacuated safely from New Orleans prior to the hurricane’s landfall. Many supporters note that even if licensed drivers had been available and the available buses had been used to evacuate the remaining approximately 150,000 people, they may not have made it to safety before landfall. Plus, even if you could round up drivers, who’s coordinating which routes these buses will take? Which neighborhood do I drive through? Even if I drive through the neighborhood, who’s checking each house to make sure there isn’t an elderly or infirm person in there, who can’t make it out to the bus? Who’s providing security when a mob rushes the bus? ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2005, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/34 "2005-09-05T01:49:45Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > So the city can commandeer the school buses. Who’s got the keys? Who made sure they were gassed up & operational? Who’s driving them? Didn’t 20% of the police force desert? According to this [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina) article, > > Plus, even if you could round up drivers, who’s coordinating which routes these buses will take? Which neighborhood do I drive through? Even if I drive through the neighborhood, who’s checking each house to make sure there isn’t an elderly or infirm person in there, who can’t make it out to the bus? Who’s providing security when a mob rushes the bus? All of those details should have been put in place by the city of NO and the state of Louisiana. Just like making sure that once they declared a last resort shelter (superdome) that plans should have included food, water and waste disposal for extended stays. Seems like their Official Evacuation Plan was lacking in many areas. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2005, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/35 "2005-09-05T14:20:34Z")
Actually, it seems like the Official Evacuation Plan was pretty solid. The only thing they forgot was to actually use the plan. The governor declared a state of emergency, and the mayor said that everyone had to leave, but beyond that everyone was left to their own devices. The plan was completely ignored. ---
**Author:** ![TwistofFate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@TwistofFate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TwistofFate)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2005, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/36 "2005-09-05T19:45:10Z")
It doesn’t really matter about the facts of the situation. in Daily Mail World, people will happily toodle pip in orderly fashion at the first sign of a stiff breeze, and anyone who doesn’t is a potential troublemaker. Anyone looting obviously deserves to die, as OUR TAXES will have to pay for it all, don’t you know… ---
**Author:** ![yo\_no\_se](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b487fb/32.png) [@yo\_no\_se](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yo_no_se)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2005, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/37 "2005-09-05T20:05:27Z")
Mandatory evacuations? If they come to pass, I can only imagine how the economics would work. A quick google indicates Louisianna’s 2005-06 Budget is at about $18 billion in total revenues and all of it is marked for expenditure. They don’t have surplus. How much does it cost to have the kinds of measures mentioned here? Not just in somebody’s plan, but through contractual agreements and obligations that can realistically be met. Is it feasible that increased taxes at the state and local levels (perhaps the fed kicks in as well?) could meet such a pricetag of evacuating and temporarily relocating the whole area each time a hurricane threatens? Perhaps the cold, hard reality is that there is not much more that could have been done beforehand. And, from an economic standpoint, perhaps there is not a whole hell of a lot that can be realistically done to guarantee a more effective/efficient response in the future. In my opinion. ---
**Author:** ![kniz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/c37758/32.png) [@kniz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kniz)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2005, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/38 "2005-09-05T20:08:46Z")
> [@nyctea scandiaca](#): > > **Massive refugee camps should have been set up ahead of time.** > [@jimmmy](#): > > Lets do a timeline: 8/27 Katrina is across Florida and in the Gulf and strengthens to a Category 2. Bush declares a State of Emergency in LA and MS, 8/28 after it has strengthened to Category 5 New Orleans Mayor orders the Mandatory Evacuation 8/28 10AM CDT, Katrina makes landfall in LA at 6:10 AM CDT on the 29th. So let’s be clear here it is not like these folks ignored weeks and weeks of warnings… So, how could _massive refugee camps_ ber organized and set in two days? Refugee camps are built using tents which cannot withstand high winds. There were hurricane force winds as far north as Hattisburg, MS and near hurricane force winds in Jackson, MS. People living in the central and eastern parts of NO were told to go north and only those in western NO were instructed to head west. So where could these camps been built that the people could get to them and be safe? One of the heroes is a young black boy who stole a school bus and crowded people into it and headed to Houston. He made it. As to getting everyone out, please watch the news concerning all the people that still refuse to leave. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![cornflakes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9d8465/32.png) [@cornflakes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cornflakes)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2005, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634/39 "2005-09-06T04:57:02Z")
Effective evacuations can’t be done. I can’t find an evacuation map for New Orleans, but it will take [twenty nine hours](http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/evac_map/gifs/galveston.gif) to evacuate Galveston, Texas if a Category 5 hurricane threatens landfall. Given a slowly moving hurricane (10mph), evacuation would have to start when the hurricane is in the middle of the Gulf. Few will leave until it looks like the storm is at least heading for their state, and it would be political suicide for the local officials to order evacuations for every hurricane. That 29 hour figure is for a called but voluntary evacuation. A house to house search would take much longer, probably weeks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-evacuations-become-mandatory-after-katrina-what-else-will-change-in-the-future/319634.md?page=1)