# Will Finland join NATO? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [March 11, 2022, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912 "2022-03-11T17:52:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/1 "2022-03-11T17:52:00Z")
Finland has long taken a neutral position, particularly during the Cold War. Things might be changing as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: > [@](#): > > Meanwhile, a [recent poll](https://yle.fi/news/3-12337202) by public broadcaster Yle found 53 percent of Finns now support joining NATO, a dramatic rise from merely 19 percent five years ago. > > And a citizens’ petition on holding a [referendum](https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-nato-membership-sanna-marin-ukraine-russia/) on Finland’s NATO bid gathered the 50,000 signatures needed for parliament to debate it in less than a week. > **[Finland mulls joining NATO after Russia’s war in Ukraine](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/11/finland-considers-joining-nato-after-russias-war-in-ukraine)** > > As the war in Ukraine rages on, another country with a storied history and long border with Russia is growing concerned. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/2 "2022-03-11T17:59:38Z")
I wonder if Putin even considered his actions would drive more neighbors to join NATO? He seems to have been impervious to logical thought of late. I think Finland will probably will ask to join and be welcomed. * * * Checked some facts before continuing to post. So they are EU already and have been part of the NATO Response Force and NATO Partnership for Peace. While their standing army is small {34,700}, all males do get training in either armed service or a civilian non-armed service. So they could mobilized a decent defensive army fairly quick. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/3 "2022-03-11T20:56:24Z")
Didn’t Putin already make veiled threats about Finland joining NATO? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/4 "2022-03-11T21:05:36Z")
Yes. But he’s also sent tanks and rockets into Ukraine. I think that tends to change the balance of the conversation. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/5 "2022-03-11T21:07:15Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > NATO Partnership for Peace. So has Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/6 "2022-03-11T21:22:59Z")
and Ukraine ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/7 "2022-03-11T21:27:17Z")
Finland maintained neutrality throughout the entirety of the Cold War, but the invasion of Ukraine represents the first time since WW2 that a European nation state has invaded another. So it’s understandable why the conversation has begun. I suspect what the Finns ultimately decide to do will depend at least in part on how the current conflict gets resolved. Strategically, Russia’s position is weaker today than it was a month ago. It may be that if Russia loses a good deal more hardware, the level of threat they pose to their neighbors the next decade or so will be rather diminished and the perceived need to join NATO less. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/8 "2022-03-11T21:33:33Z")
Maybe a more likely result at this point is that there will be regime change in Russia which could lead to an overall reset of the perceived threat level depending on who takes power. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/9 "2022-03-11T21:41:13Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > While their standing army is small {34,700}, all males do get training in either armed service or a civilian non-armed service. So they could mobilized a decent defensive army fairly quick. I would not fancy being in any army that attacked Finland on home turf. And on current performance I would definitely not want to be in the _Russian_ army and try to attack Finland. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/10 "2022-03-11T22:11:41Z")
This is _dripping_ awesomeness: > **[Finland hits back at Russia threatening them not to join NATO with sniper meme](https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/finland-hits-back-russia-threatening-26348652)** > > A meme depicting A snowy wilderness and urging web surfers to spot an invisible sniper appears to be a come and get it message to Russia, with a nod to Finland's military victory over their neighbour ---
**Author:** ![Seanette](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/seanette/32/9139_2.png) [@Seanette](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seanette)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/11 "2022-03-11T22:18:04Z")
They are, after all, the people who produced probably the top sniper of all time. > **[Simo Häyhä](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > Simo Häyhä (Finnish: \[ˈsimo ˈhæy̯hæ\] (listen); 17 December 1905 – 1 April 2002), often referred to by his nickname, The White Death (Finnish: Valkoinen kuolema; Russian: Белая смерть, romanized: Belaya smert’), was a Finnish military sniper in World War II during the 1939–1940 Winter War against the Soviet Union. He used a Finnish-produced M/28-30 (a variant of the Mosin–Nagant rifle) and a Suomi KP/-31 submachine gun. He is believed to have ki... ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/12 "2022-03-11T22:49:17Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Didn’t Putin already make veiled threats about Finland joining NATO? Russia also made promises it wouldn’t invade Ukraine. Finland and other countries are undoubtedly thinking there’s no point in trying to secure their country by making an agreement with Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/13 "2022-03-17T14:01:18Z")
And in that, they are wise. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/14 "2022-03-17T14:17:46Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Finland maintained neutrality throughout the entirety of the Cold War, but the invasion of Ukraine It may be that if Russia loses a good deal more hardware, the level of threat they pose to their neighbors the next decade or so will be rather diminished and the perceived need to join NATO less. In WWII the Soviet Union lost a tremendous amount of military hardware to the Nazi invasion but managed to replenish it fairly quickly (with help from the Allies). If Russia decides to markedly ramp up military spending again, it will have all the toys it needs to terrorize its neighbors. The Finns have ample experience with what happens when a small but dedicated army goes up against overwhelming Russian might. Having NATO backing would be a major deterrent to aggression. Incidentally, Russia could make the same argument vis-a-vis Finland that it has with Ukraine - that Finland was a “historic” part of the Russian Empire and should be again. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/15 "2022-03-17T14:23:21Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > In WWII the Soviet Union lost a tremendous amount of military hardware to the Nazi invasion but managed to replenish it fairly quickly (with help from the Allies). If Russia decides to markedly ramp up military spending again, it will have all the toys it needs to terrorize its neighbors. In WWII, the Soviets got a truly staggering amount of material from the allies…including most of their trucks, jeeps, and other logistics transport. They also got literal boatloads of food, steel, rubber, clothing, and everything else…including money. They were able to build all of that stuff in no small part because they were receiving so much. I don’t see a similar situation today. Where is Russia going to get all the stuff they need to build more toys? They were having trouble keeping up before their invasion and the new round of sanctions. I doubt China is going to (openly) be selling them all the stuff they need to build a modern weapons system. And while India has also penned a new agreement with Russia to buy their oil (at a steep discount), I don’t see them selling them anything on the sanction list…much of which Russia would need to build out those toys. Hell, I’m not sure Russia will have the materials to upgrade more of their old crap with the current sanctions regime…where are they going to get the money from?? > [@Jackmannii](#): > > Incidentally, Russia could make the same argument vis-a-vis Finland that it has with Ukraine - that Finland was a “historic” part of the Russian Empire and should be again. I’m sure they will do just that. They have already threatened Finland for even considering this. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/16 "2022-03-17T15:32:00Z")
> [@XT](#): > > In WWII, the Soviets got a truly staggering amount of material from the allies…including most of their trucks, jeeps, and other logistics transport. They also got literal boatloads of food, steel, rubber, clothing, and everything else…including money. They were able to build all of that stuff in no small part because they were receiving so much. Agreed, Allied aid was massive and dramatically aided the Soviet war effort. However, the Soviets were able to rev up their own production markedly, moving entire factories east to get out of range of the Germans. Their tank production had approximately tripled by 1944 compared to 1941; aircraft production increased by about two and a half times. The effort required there and in other industrial sectors depended on war mobilization of the citizenry to an extent likely impossible today. Still, I doubt Russian leadership’s current imperialist dreams will be foiled by a prolonged shortage of military hardware. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/17 "2022-03-17T15:47:14Z")
But one of the differences from WWII is that production of war materials is much different now. Other posters in other threads have commented that putting together modern war equipment takes a lot longer than it did in WWII, when it was relatively easy to re-tool industries from peace production to war production. It’s much more specialised and takes longer to produce the material. There’s also the issue of the inter-connectedness of the world markets, especially for some vital components like semi-conductor chips. For instance, if Russia is cut off from sophisticated chips, that cuts down on their ability to make modern war equipment. Here’s an interesting article about chips and Russia. It suggests that they could still get chips from China, but that due to existing US sanctions on Chine/Huawei, those chips aren’t the same top-level quality as the ones available to the West. > **[Four things to consider as the U.S. imposes chip sanctions on Russia](https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/russia-ukraine-chip-sanctions)** > > The U.S. announced chip sanctions against Russia Thursday in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Here’s what it means for the sector, which has already endured two years of supply problems. And as interesting example of the inter-connectedness of the world supply chains, the article notes that the war in Ukraine will likely affect chip-manufacturing generally: 1. Neon is an essential component used in making chips; 2. There is a relatively small world-wide supply of neon; 3. One of the major sources of neon is Russia, where it is a by-product of their steel manufacturing process; 4. Russian neon is then refined in Ukraine, to reach the standards necessary for chip-making; 5. Last crisis in Ukraine triggered a seven-fold increase in neon prices worldwide. I don’t think comparisons to the industrial processes of WWII, ie technology 80 years ago, really provides much guidance. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/18 "2022-03-17T19:05:59Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Neon is an essential component used in making chips; Sorry for the hijack but how is neon ‘consumed’ by the lithography process? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/19 "2022-03-17T19:12:01Z")
All I know is what’s in the linked article: > [@](#): > > The raw material gathering the most attention is neon, which is used in a part of chip fabrication called lithography, where a tool uses a narrow beam of light to draw features onto silicon wafers. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2022, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912/20 "2022-03-17T19:22:18Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Hell, I’m not sure Russia will have the materials to upgrade more of their old crap with the current sanctions regime… How can you tell a Russian nuclear submarine crew? They glow in the dark. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-finland-join-nato/960912.md?page=2)