# Will GOP Super-PACs give up on the House and focus on the Senate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 27, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225 "2018-04-27T15:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/1 "2018-04-27T15:58:07Z")
In the AZ-8 thread there was a little discussion about how the series of GOP special election shellackings despite sometimes unprecedented (and fairly unmatched) GOP-Super PAC spending may impact GOP Super-PAC fundraising and spending going into mid-terms. One perspective was that fear of losing their gains may motivate even heavier investment by those deep pockets. But as I [speculated](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20927003&postcount=48) there, another possibility is that they give up on the House this cycle and go all in on defending potentially at risk Senate seats (which _could_ include some currently considered “likely R” if special elections do accurately portend). What think you? Will they double down on House races that they previously would have taken for granted? Or accept the House as a lost cause that is not much worse being big lost or not as big lost and instead reduce the risk of what is still considered an unlikely Democratic majority in the Senate as well. Where will they place their chips? ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/2 "2018-04-27T16:18:55Z")
Well, it takes BOTH houses to pass a bill and get it to the president. So, even though senators are far more important than reps because there are far fewer, the practical reality it that they hold equal importance in terms of controlling legislation. I think they’ll fight for everything they can. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/3 "2018-04-27T16:38:48Z")
The Senate votes on SCOTUS nominees all by its lonesome. Losing the sure path to getting an even more solidly conservative majority in place that will pass rulings they like for decades? That they do not want to risk. Googling finds me [some support](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/04/after-ryans-exit-big-money-donors-turn-to-war-for-senate.html) for the speculation. > [@](#): > > “I’ve gotten a couple emails,” Dan Eberhart, an energy executive and an increasingly higher-profile GOP fundraiser, told me on Wednesday morning. He paused. “I mean, I think the House is gone. The focus is going to, more and more, be on the Senate.” … > > … Many heard new appeals to help Republican leaders keep the Senate, for the sake of Trump and McConnell’s missions to reshape the judiciary. … ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2018, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/4 "2018-04-30T20:20:48Z")
Well, there’s at least one district the Republicans don’t have to worry about; I just got my sample ballot, and in California’s 5th district, there are no Republicans running (that I know of) - just the incumbent Democrat, a Green, and two “decline to state.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/5 "2018-05-01T01:55:39Z")
I would be careful about predicting the demise of the Republicans and the “Blue Wave”. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/6 "2018-05-01T02:10:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I would be careful about predicting the demise of the Republicans and the “Blue Wave”. Agreed. The Democratic Party has a habit of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. > [@Jasmine](#): > > Well, it takes BOTH houses to pass a bill and get it to the president. So, even though senators are far more important than reps because there are far fewer, the practical reality it that they hold equal importance in terms of controlling legislation. I think they’ll fight for everything they can. Except for a replacement Vice-President the Senate alone gives advice & consent to presidential appointments. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/7 "2018-05-01T02:38:07Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I would be careful about predicting the demise of the Republicans and the “Blue Wave”. The question of the thread is NOT whether or not there will be, or predicting a House Blue wave. The question is whether or not GOP donors are convinced (correctly _or not_) that such is the case for the House, whether or not they feel theSenate is at any risk, and if so if that impacts their spending choices moving forward. And what follows from that if so. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/8 "2018-05-01T02:47:22Z")
Meanwhile [Senate race PACs](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2018/04/20/wealthy-donors-spend-millions-to-boost-top-super-pac-supporting-senate-democrats-filings-show/?utm_term=.b6d6006b8870)are getting big donations on both sides. Democratic side $22.1 million this year and $43 million for the 2018 cycle. GOP Senate race PACs side $28.7 million so far this cycle. RNC outraising the DNC as have been the House PACs. Individual D candidates outraising the R ones. Will those shift moving forward based on current perceptions? That’s the question of the thread. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/9 "2018-05-01T12:25:45Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > Except for a replacement Vice-President the Senate alone gives advice & consent to presidential appointments. Replacement Veep is different. Requires majority vote of both Houses. See the 25th Amendment, section 2. > **[Twenty-fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution)** > > The Twenty-fifth Amendment (Amendment XXV) to the United States Constitution deals with presidential succession and disability. > It clarifies that the vice president becomes president if the president dies, resigns, or is removed from office through impeachment, and establishes how a vacancy in the office of the vice president can be filled. > It also provides for the temporary transfer of the president's powers and duties to the vice president, either on the initiative of the president alone or ... ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/10 "2018-05-01T16:57:31Z")
Losing the House does lead to Nancy Pelosi being two hearbeats away. I’m having a tough time believing donors are willing to let that happen without a fight. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2018, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/11 "2018-05-01T17:03:01Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Losing the House does lead to Nancy Pelosi being two hearbeats away. I’m having a tough time believing donors are willing to let that happen without a fight. Because of the numerous times the Speaker has become President? ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2018, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/12 "2018-05-02T13:55:48Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Because of the numerous times the Speaker has become President? True, but it’s not an unthinkable scenario - Trump resigns (I know, we’ve been saying that since Jan 2017), Pence takes over, and the now Democratic House rejects every VP candidate he sends them, keeping Nancy in the number 2 spot. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2018, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/13 "2018-05-02T14:15:36Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > True, but it’s not an unthinkable scenario - Trump resigns (I know, we’ve been saying that since Jan 2017), Pence takes over, and the now Democratic House rejects every VP candidate he sends them, keeping Nancy in the number 2 spot. It would have to be a Democratic Senate (possible but less likely). ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/14 "2018-05-02T18:39:15Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > It would have to be a Democratic Senate (possible but less likely). A replacement VP has to be approved by a majority of both houses of Congress - [25th Amendment](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv). So either house can keep the VP office vacant indefinitely. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2018, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-gop-super-pacs-give-up-on-the-house-and-focus-on-the-senate/813225/15 "2018-05-02T22:30:10Z")
Technically, there was one Speaker who became President: James K. Polk. But that was through election, not succession.