# Will Hillary Clinton be the next U.S. President? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 4, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557 "2015-10-04T23:04:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/341 "2015-10-27T16:48:15Z")
Things are looking good for Hillary in Iowa. Let me move this over from the Jeb! thread: > [@Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/281): > > First let’s see if she can win IA and/or NH. Biden’s exit from the race doesn’t seem to have improved her standing in the two states that are actually paying attention. > [@Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/290): > > OK, let’s look at Iowa. [Three polls have been taken in Iowa](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html) since Biden dropped out: CBS/YouGov, Quinnipiac, and Des Moines Register. All three also polled Iowa in the last 10 days of August and/or the first 10 days of September. Let’s compare (Hillary’s numbers first, then Bernie’s, in all cases): > > CBS then: 33-43. Now: 46-43. Hillary goes from -10 to +3. > Q then: 40-41. Now: 51-40. Hillary goes from -1 to +11. > DMR then: 37-30. Now: 48-41. Hillary stays at +7. > > Looks like an improvement to me. > > [In NH](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html), there’s been only one post-Biden poll, also by CBS/YouGov, and they polled NH in early September also. > > CBS then: 30-52. Now: 39-54. Hillary goes from -22 to -15. > > That also looks like an improvement. > > And before you say the obvious “Hillary’s still behind by 15 in NH,” she’s really not, except for this one poll. No other poll since the beginning of July had Bernie up by more than 16 in NH, so CBS was an outlier for having Bernie up by 22. And the other polls now in RCP’s NH average have Hillary and Bernie essentially tied there, even with Biden in all the numbers, so once again CBS is an outlier. > > Anyway, as best as we can tell, Biden’s exit seems to have helped Hillary in Iowa and NH. She’s got a clear lead in Iowa, and is competitive in NH. And the effects of her _Benghazi!_ testimony have yet to affect the polls. > > Not sure why we’re discussing this in the Jeb! thread, but whatever. > [@Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/303): > > New Monmouth poll of Iowa Dems has [Hillary absolutely crushing it](http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf), 65-24. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/342 "2015-10-27T18:39:12Z")
And a Loras (no, not Lora **x** , but it ought to be!) College poll has Hillary up in [Iowa](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html), 62-24. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/343 "2015-10-27T21:02:56Z")
It is like I foretold **adaher** , the Biden supporters were more likely to go to Clinton and I have to blame the media for doing the sandbagging. Whereas a candidate might run, you guys in the media should not add a candidate to the polling until he or she is officially running. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2015, 9:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/344 "2015-10-28T09:39:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The point is that we already know SNL’s biases. We knew they were anti-Hillary in 2008(most of the liberal media was once they fell in love with Obama), and now they are pro-Hillary because she’s the best Democrat available. > > They are the palace guard. OK, where did “palace guard” come from? **Tea Party Command Center Blogger Spo** t [had this on 9/20/15](http://teapartyorg.ning.com/forum/topics/get-lost-you-main-stream-media-palace-guard-creeps): > [@](#): > > As the week ended, Obama’s palace guard in the American media were demanding that every other Republican candidate distance himself from Donald Trump’s failure to correct, among thousands of attendees at his events, one who apparently is under the reprehensible illusion that the President is a Muslim… And it goes on. I doubt this is the earliest reference–Google indicates the phrase is all over the Right Wing Echo Chamber. Rather confusing to one with knowledge of Roman History–the Pretorian Guard could be quite pro-active against the Emperor. In other news, Ms Clinton appeared on Stephen Colbert’s show last night. (He’s had several presidential candidates already.) I missed the first couple of minutes but she seemed to do quite well. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2015, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/345 "2015-10-29T10:31:42Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Neither of those statements (and there were others) square with what they were telling the American people at the time. Perhaps one of the Benhazi critics can answer a simple question. What is the actual charge, in straightforward ordinary words, against Hillary? What was her mischievous or selfish intent? I’d wanted to ask this question, but couldn’t bare admit that I’d spent only the tiniest fraction of the hundreds of hours junkies commit to the intricacies of Benghazi-gate. But just now I see that Rolling Stone has addressed the matter. [QUOTE=Matt Taibbbi] …The overriding implication of the Benghazi hearing seemed to be that Hillary Clinton was so crass, unfeeling and politically self-involved as to not care if members of her State Department were massacred. Again, Hillary has a lot of flaws, but we’re supposed to believe that she doesn’t have a problem with dead Americans? Seriously? This is the same kind of abject stupidity we saw in the 9/11 Truth movement, which believed unquestioningly that a whole bund of Bush administration officials was willing to see Americans murdered en masse in order to further some convoluted world domination scheme. Gowdy went to places like this over and over again Thursday. At one point, he was giving Hillary a hard time for responding too quickly to an email from Huma Abedin pointing out that the Libyan people “needed medicine, gasoline, diesel and milk.” “Do you know how long it took you to answer that email?” Gowdy ranted. “Well, I responded very quickly,” Hillary replied. “Yeah, four minutes,” Gowdy chirped. “My question, and I think it’s a fair one, is the Libyan people had their needs responded to in four minutes. And there’s no record of our security folks ever making it to your inbox.” The look on Gowdy’s face at this moment was priceless. He was proud, like a 3-year-old who went potty all by himself. But what was he even talking about? That Hillary Clinton cares more about the lives of Libyan strangers than she does her own employees? Was that seriously the idea? [/QUOTE] So, **D’Anconia** and others: Does Mr. Taibbi have it wrong? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2015, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/346 "2015-10-29T14:19:30Z")
Hillary for President: “Not Insane!” 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/347 "2015-10-31T18:59:36Z")
Thought I’d bump this to see if, by chance, **D’Anconia** had figured out how to understand the timeline. ---
**Author:** ![sweepkick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/87869e/32.png) [@sweepkick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweepkick)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2015, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/348 "2015-10-31T22:40:28Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Thought I’d bump this to see if, by chance, **D’Anconia** had figured out how to understand the timeline. It’s not nice to play with your food. ---
**Author:** ![inscrutable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a88e4f/32.png) [@inscrutable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/inscrutable)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/349 "2015-11-01T01:21:56Z")
Hillary should have been elected in '08, and the DNC should have saved the bozo we ended up with for '16. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/350 "2015-11-01T01:24:44Z")
> [@inscrutable](#): > > Hillary should have been elected in '08, and the DNC should have saved the bozo we ended up with for '16. What do you think would have happened differently in the last 6 1/2 years? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/351 "2015-11-01T03:31:04Z")
The public would have been eager for Obama because they wanted change and an end to politics as usual, rather than disillusioned because he was actually no different from the rest. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/352 "2015-11-01T10:24:54Z")
Are you kidding? Obama’s been a breath of fresh air after Bush. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/353 "2015-11-01T10:46:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The public would have been eager for Obama because they wanted change and an end to politics as usual, rather than disillusioned because he was actually no different from the rest. How was he ‘no different from the rest’? He couldn’t have done more than he did to try to govern in a bipartisan manner, other than abandon Democratic policy goals altogether and join the Republican Party. It takes two to tango. If you try to reach across the aisle to work together with the other party, and the other party tells you to fuck off, then that doesn’t mean you were “no different from the rest.” It means Obama attempted to prove that drawing the Republicans into working cooperatively was politically possible, but wound up definitively disproving that theory for the foreseeable future. So from the Dem perspective, the only workable approach left on the table is that of disempowering the GOP. For that, we need a skilled fighter who will take them on, and make them look small and silly in the process of doing so, so that voters will find them equal parts dangerous and ridiculous, and vote against them on those grounds. In Hillary, we’ve got the right candidate for that. But it was Republican intransigence that necessitated that we Democrats go this route. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/354 "2015-11-01T10:55:23Z")
The problem with the BUsh administration wasn’t that it wasn’t bipartisan enough. When voters wanted change, they wanted an end to the stale old politics, as Obama put it. They didn’t get that, so now they are searching for another candidate who might actually bring about change. Besides, fighting is futile for Democrats. They don’t have the power anymore and holding the White House won’t change that. Republicans have the bulk of the power where laws actually get passed, as in federal and state legislatures. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/355 "2015-11-01T11:28:03Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Are you kidding? Obama’s been a breath of fresh air after Bush. The Obama administration has [failed miserably](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/03/barack_obama_promised_transparency_the_white_house_is_as_opaque_secretive.html) in his pledge to improve transparency. Instead we get government dragging their feet on FOIA requests and [waiting for a judge’s order](http://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2013/12/judge-orders-obama-foreign-aid-order-released-179799) before reluctantly releasing information. That is actually [worse than the Bush administration](http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/156227/obama-administrations-foia-record-worse-than-bushs/). Just business as usual in Washington. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/356 "2015-11-01T12:34:00Z")
Not to mention the lying, the lack of accountability, the spin, the used car salesman act. I understand why the Clintons don’t like him. Everything they said about him in 2008 was 100% true. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/357 "2015-11-01T12:58:04Z")
Latest numbers from Predictwise: White House 57% Hillary 16% Rubio 7% Sanders 7% Trump 4% Bush 3% Cruz 2% Christie 2% Carson 1% Fiorina 1% Kasich (With only a few exceptions, November predictions depend little on nominees! Multiply above by 2.75 to estimate chance player wins nomination if GOP, by 1.55 if Democrat. Exceptions: Carson’s nomination chance (9%) is much more than 2.75\*2%; Huckabee’s nomination chance is much more than Kasich’s. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/358 "2015-11-01T14:15:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not to mention the lying, the lack of accountability, the spin, the used car salesman act. I understand why the Clintons don’t like him. Everything they said about him in 2008 was 100% true. I wonder if you recognize how much your personal views of Obama might cloud your view of his politics and achievement. This is just throwing right-wing-fantasy darts at the dartboard. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/359 "2015-11-01T15:12:10Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Thought I’d bump this to see if, by chance, **D’Anconia** had figured out how to understand the timeline. [“There are none so blind as those who will not see.”](http://www.actualfreedom.com.au/richard/abditorium/nonesoblind.htm) -John Heywood, 1546 ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/360 "2015-11-01T15:12:12Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > The Obama administration has [failed miserably](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/03/barack_obama_promised_transparency_the_white_house_is_as_opaque_secretive.html) in his pledge to improve transparency. Instead we get government dragging their feet on FOIA requests and [waiting for a judge’s order](http://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2013/12/judge-orders-obama-foreign-aid-order-released-179799) before reluctantly releasing information. That is actually [worse than the Bush administration](http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/156227/obama-administrations-foia-record-worse-than-bushs/). > > Just business as usual in Washington. The only thing worse than the Bush administration was the Nixon administration, except possibly the Reagan administration. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=19)