# Will Hillary Clinton be the next U.S. President? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 4, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557 "2015-10-04T23:04:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/381 "2015-11-03T20:21:51Z")
The Vegas Odds put the probability of a Hillary Presidency at .95 against a Trump .2 The reasons are simple: The phony scandals are only believed by the far right - they are not potential Dem voters The Republican governance history is abysmal - Bush did not keep us safe, militarily or financially The Obama administration has achieved steady, substantial progress for seven years Clinton has the experience and skill to govern The odds makers are correct - It’s going to be Mrs. President! Crane ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/382 "2015-11-03T20:27:17Z")
Out of curiosity, can you link to your source of “Vegas Odds”? Most places I’ve seen have Clinton favored, but not that degree. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/383 "2015-11-03T20:29:39Z")
[Here’s some.](http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/384 "2015-11-03T20:32:24Z")
That doesn’t have Clinton anywhere near 0.95. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/385 "2015-11-03T20:35:17Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > That doesn’t have Clinton anywhere near 0.95. I can’t see the link, but that .95 sounded like odds to win the nomination, not the general election (contrary to the post that first mentioned it). So my guess is a misunderstanding of what the number is for. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/386 "2015-11-03T20:35:25Z")
She’s actually at 58% right now. 81% chance of winning the nomination. [https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President](https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/387 "2015-11-03T20:36:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > She’s actually at 58% right now. 81% chance of winning the nomination. > > [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President) Oddly I’d put her chance at the nomination at considerably higher (close to 95%), with her chance at the general at about 55% right now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/388 "2015-11-03T20:38:08Z")
What’s hard to predict is how Sanders wins in Iowa and NH would change things. Nate Silver seems to think that he can win those two and then lose everywhere else, but history tells us that winning IA and NH means a huge bump in support. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/389 "2015-11-03T20:40:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What’s hard to predict is how Sanders wins in Iowa and NH would change things. Nate Silver seems to think that he can win those two and then lose everywhere else, but history tells us that winning IA and NH means a huge bump in support. That’s hard to predict, but his chances at Iowa seem pretty low based on recent polling. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/390 "2015-11-03T20:53:34Z")
Three things. 1. I’m not sure I trust PredictIt yet. It’s still in beta and its smaller volume makes it susceptible to more noise and more it’s more easily influenced by a handful of big bettors. I prefer PredictWise, but it uses a combination of polls and real money betting data. 2. You are computing your probabilities incorrectly by failing to account for a small vig at PredictIt. The difference is small, but it is a difference. 3. Possible losses in IA and NH are already baked in to the probabilities derived from prediction markets. That’s how prediction markets work. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/391 "2015-11-03T22:09:15Z")
The odds vary and perhaps I calculated the probability incorrectly: 5/6 to win the Presidency, I calculated as a probability of .83 -245 to win the Presidency I calculated as a probability of .95 In any case Clinton is the strong favorite with the odds makers. The current chaos in the Republican Party does not bode well for their candidates. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/392 "2015-11-03T22:29:37Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > 5/6 to win the Presidency, I calculated as a probability of .83 If I’m understanding this right, this gives an implied probability of 55% without adjusting for vig. (6/(5+6) > [@Crane](#): > > -245 to win the Presidency I calculated as a probability of .95 The implied probability here is 71% (also no vig). (245/(100+245)) I’d still like to see where these numbers came from. In particular the 71% is higher than I’ve seen anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/393 "2015-11-03T22:51:09Z")
Lance, Couldn’t find the -245. Here is a similar link: > **[USA Presidential Election: 2016 Odds](https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures)** > > Looking for odds and analysis on the upcoming election? Click Here Using your equation puts Fiorina (1000) at .90. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/394 "2015-11-03T23:01:59Z")
-x gives the implied probability x/(100 + x). +x gives the implied probabilty 100/(100 + x). I’ll work this out below for the dem nomination for clarity. For those who don’t care feel free to skip this post. From the linked page at present we have: Hillary Clinton -1200 Bernie Sanders +600 These yield implied probabilities: Hillary Clinton: 1200/(100 + 1200) ~ 0.923076923 Bernie Sanders: 100/(100 + 600) ~ 0.142857143 Note that the sum of these is greater than one so we normalize to correct for the vig: Hillary Clinton: 0.923076923/(0.923076923 + 0.142857143) ~ 87% Bernie Sanders: 0.142857143/(0.923076923 + 0.142857143) ~ 13% ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/395 "2015-11-03T23:12:32Z")
And since I’m bored, here’s what we get for president from the linked OddsShark page (with intermediate steps omitted). ```auto Hillary Clinton -110 48.2% Donald Trump +500 15.3% Marcio Rubio +600 13.1% Bernie Sanders +1000 8.4% Jeb Bush +1200 7.1% Ted Cruz +3300 2.7% Carly Florina +4000 2.2% Chris Christie +5000 1.8% John Kasich +7500 1.2% ``` ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/396 "2015-11-03T23:25:38Z")
Lance, Thanks. Using your equations: Clinton .43 Bush, Trump, Rubio .14 Fiorina .05 That makes sense. Thanks again, Crane ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/397 "2015-11-03T23:33:10Z")
Lance, I used older numbers. Your equation converges on .5. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/398 "2015-11-03T23:42:53Z")
Lance, -110 means that the bet is on the favorite and will return $1.10 for a $1.00 bet. That’s odds of 10:1 or a probability of .9. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/399 "2015-11-04T00:50:28Z")
Crane, -110 means you have to bet $110 to win $100 (plus getting your original $110 back). See [here](http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds). Although many sites will tell you the same thing. Search for the phrase, “Converting ‘minus’ moneyline odds into implied probability formula.” ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/400 "2015-11-04T01:16:49Z")
Lance, Oh, I see. The + values converge on 50% and the - values diverge. Thanks, Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=21)