# Will Hillary Clinton be the next U.S. President? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 4, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557 "2015-10-04T23:04:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/121 "2015-10-15T12:31:33Z")
So, what have those great predictors, the betting markets, been saying yesterday and today? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/122 "2015-10-15T13:31:10Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Well I’m pretty sure the key democrats have already nominated her. The primarys are just a game to keep democratic activists busy. Clinton wrapped up the [“invisible primary”](http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/0923/Clinton-crushed-invisible-primary.-Will-that-matter) long ago. > [@](#): > > Sanders people are going to be upset when they find out but he will make a long speech about how awesome Hillary is and they will support her lock step. Not sure about the lock step part, considering the deep and irrational personal antipathy many bear for her, but on the whole, yes. > [@](#): > > Its just how politics work especially with democrats. Why that last clause? The Sheldon Adelson Primary and the Koch Brothers Primary are how the Republicans got Romney and McCain, or any of the other “it’s his turn” nominees they come up with, and it’s why Jeb Bush is still considered viable. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/123 "2015-10-15T13:51:14Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Clinton wrapped up the [“invisible primary”](http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/0923/Clinton-crushed-invisible-primary.-Will-that-matter) long ago. Wow, that “invisible primary” is an eye opener and dead on. So really it doesnt matter what the average democrat on the street campaigning for Sanders wants does it? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/124 "2015-10-15T14:23:25Z")
Not as long as the nominee is a good one. W2!'s invisible-primary win on the GOP side has done nearly nothing for _him_. Don’t be shocked to learn there’s an insider’s game in electoral politics, please. Just also remember that the nominee has to be electable, and re-electable, and does have to get the support of The People. The insiders are \*not \*the enemy. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/125 "2015-10-15T16:37:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > So, what have those great predictors, the betting markets, been saying yesterday and today? [PredictWise](http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination), which uses a combination of real money betting markets and polling data, has her at 77% as of this posting. She had been hovering at around 70% for a couple months prior to the first debate. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/126 "2015-10-15T23:35:06Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > So really it doesnt matter what the average democrat on the street campaigning for Sanders wants does it? I think the Sanders campaign will be successful at pushing the Democratic agenda, whoever the candidate is, from centrist positions toward progressive positions. This is what Democratic constituents want. The system works. Similarly Trump is successfully moving GOP from obsessive-compulsive disorder and paranoia toward mania-depression and sociopathy. This is what GOP constituents want. The system works. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/127 "2015-10-16T03:20:24Z")
If the Democrats llose Pennsylvania of course, that will be evidence that the system is broken: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/128 "2015-10-16T11:46:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If the Democrats llose Pennsylvania of course, that will be evidence that the system is broken: > > [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) Yeah, the Dems might llose their llama, but they’re not gonna lose Pensylvania unless it’s a rout anyway. Republicans always think they have a shot at PA, and they never get anywhere. I continue to be not worried. And the answer to the question in the thread title is: Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/129 "2015-10-16T18:53:23Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, the Dems might llose their llama, but they’re not gonna lose Pensylvania unless it’s a rout anyway. Republicans always think they have a shot at PA, and they never get anywhere. True dat. PA’s gone Democrat the last 6 elections, and if any trend can be discerned it’s only getting bluer. > **[Pennsylvania Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/states/Pennsylvania)** > > Information on how the residents of Pennsylvania have voted in presidential elections. Includes trends and polls for the 2024 election, as well as a Pennsylvania voting history and narrative. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/130 "2015-10-16T19:19:14Z")
Similar story in Ohio, although not as pronounced. Florida is getting that way, too. The Republican candidate needs all three, but is more likely to get none. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/131 "2015-10-16T19:43:34Z")
In a close election. That is the catch. If a GOP nominee wins by 4 or 5 percent, maybe even 3 percent, in the general popular vote then they will carry all the states they need. Not sure that a rout is required, just a solid win. No I do not think that such is likely this cycle. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/132 "2015-10-16T22:49:56Z")
The GOP can’t get it without the Hispanic vote. A Clinton/Castro ticket will (pardon the expression) trump anything the Republicans can put together. As a Cuban, Rubio is not well respected by all Hispanics. Cruz is political poison. Bush might have a chance. but who’d you pair him with? Clinton/Castro is the likely ticket and likely to be the winning ticket. Crane ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/133 "2015-10-17T03:02:36Z")
The Latino vote doesn’t matter. It’s the African-American vote that’s key. If turnout is lower than in the last two elections or African-Americans vote 11% or more for the GOP then the GOP candidate probably wins. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/134 "2015-10-17T03:13:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Latino vote doesn’t matter. It’s the African-American vote that’s key. If turnout is lower than in the last two elections or African-Americans vote 11% or more for the GOP then the GOP candidate probably wins. Again, claiming that the Latino vote does not matter is really silly. > **[Donald Trump Is Killing the Republican Party](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-is-killing-the-republican-party_b_8037868)** > > Being anti-immigrant is no longer the Trump brand, it's now the Republican brand and will be inescapable for the Republican nominee. > [@](#): > > Donald Trump is destroying the Republican Party’s chance to win the presidency and it is probably too late for them to do anything about it. His just announced immigration policy is just the beginning of the GOP’s problems. To understand why, we need to go back a few years. > > \*\*In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney despite improving but still high unemployment, a broken website during the roll out of the Affordable Care Act, and Obama’s less than ideal approval numbers. And it wasn’t close. Obama carried the Electoral College 332 to 206, and would have still won easily if he had not scored victories in historic bellwethers Ohio and Michigan – which he did. For a second time, Obama’s new electoral victory map included Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. These are all states Republicans used to win and all states with substantial or growing Latino electorates. > \*\* > Following this national electoral debacle, the Republican National Committee held what was widely called an “autopsy” – a top to bottom review of their campaign to figure out why they lost. Of their 7 findings, number 2 concluded that the Republican Party could never again be seen as anti-immigrant and specifically anti-Latino. While George W Bush won approximately 40 percent of the Latino vote, Mitt Romney won only 27 percent. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/135 "2015-10-17T03:15:31Z")
It doesn’t matter. The GOP can lose 100% of the Latino vote and still win the election. They would have to win 70% of the Latino vote to gain any electoral votes. Since the likely result is between 30-45% of the vote, it makes no difference. A Republican can do as well as Bush did, or as poorly as Romney did, and it won’t matter in the electoral vote. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/136 "2015-10-17T03:20:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It doesn’t matter. The GOP can lose 100% of the Latino vote and still win the election. They would have to win 70% of the Latino vote to gain any electoral votes. You never tire of looking at items that would only work if they were taken individually? It does matter. Specially for the battleground states that were mentioned and since this is not happening in a vacuum, the woman’s vote will make a big difference too. > [@adaher](#): > > Since the likely result is between 30-45% of the vote, it makes no difference. Not likely as for now as Trump and Carson are ahead. > [@adaher](#): > > A Republican can do as well as Bush did, or as poorly as Romney did, and it won’t matter in the electoral vote. Romney did lose. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/137 "2015-10-17T03:21:37Z")
Romney lost because of the African-American vote. Historically high turnout and didn’t get the Republicans’ usual 10%. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/138 "2015-10-17T03:26:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Romney lost because of the African-American vote. Historically high turnout and didn’t get the Republicans’ usual 10%. Again you are just looking as if a single item is key, no wonder you get so many things wrong in presidential elections. > **[Latino vote key to Obama’s re-election | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2012/11/09/politics/latino-vote-key-election/)** > > The sleeping giant has awoken: Latinos not only helped Obama win in key battleground states, but they made up 10% of the electorate for the first time ever. > [@](#): > > The sleeping giant has awoken: Latinos not only helped Obama win in key battleground states, but they made up 10% of the electorate for the first time ever. > > Latinos, the fastest growing minority, making up 16% of the nation’s population, made their mark on election night as they voted for President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney 71% to 27%, a lower percentage than Republican candidates have received in in the last three elections. > > At 27% this year, Romney’s Latino support is dramatically lower than former President George W. Bush’s support in 2004, which was 44%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain’s 31% in 2008, according to exit polls. The lowest percentage of Latino voters won by a Republican was in 1996, when Bob Dole garnered only 21% of Latinos compared with then-President Bill Clinton’s record 72%. > > In 2008, Obama received 67% of the Latino vote. Latinos made up 9% of the electorate in 2008 with 19.5 million people eligible to vote. Today, there are nearly 24 million Hispanics eligible to vote. The number of registered Latinos has increased by 26% in the last four years to 12.2 million, according a report by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/139 "2015-10-17T03:29:15Z")
As for Hillary and the back vote: > **[Hillary Clinton Is Overwhelmingly Popular Among Black Americans](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-black-voters_n_55ca47f6e4b0f73b20bad91a)** > > Nobody else even comes close. > [@](#): > > Hillary Clinton Is Overwhelmingly Popular Among Black Americans > Nobody else even comes close. > [@](#): > > Black Americans view Hillary Clinton far more favorably than they do any other presidential contender, according to a Gallup survey released Monday. > > Eighty percent of black adults have a favorable impression of the Democratic front-runner and former secretary of state. Even when taking into account the percentage who view Clinton unfavorably, she still has a 68 percent net favorability rating among black Americans, a group that analysts at the Cook Political Report have called the “overlooked key to 2016.” > > Clinton’s favorability rating among black Americans eclipses those of the other Democratic hopefuls. The next highest rating belongs to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is running for president as a Democrat and has a net 23 percent favorability rating among black adults. Sanders’ relationship with the black community has come under heightened scrutiny since the start of his presidential campaign. Black Lives Matters activists recently shut down a Seattle rally where the senator was scheduled to speak. > > Black Americans aren’t as enthusiastic about the Republican field. Almost all of the GOP candidates have negative net favorability ratings among black poll respondents. The lone exception is retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has a 4 percent net favorability rating in that group. > > Real estate mogul Donald Trump and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are viewed least favorably among blacks, with net favorability ratings of negative 48 percent and negative 31 percent, respectively. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557/140 "2015-10-17T03:31:43Z")
Your article makes no claim about the electoral college. Romney would have lost in 2012 if he’d won the Latino vote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-hillary-clinton-be-the-next-u-s-president/733557.md?page=8)