# Will I see drastic effects of climate change in my lifetime? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 14, 2011, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610 "2011-10-14T06:59:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/1 "2011-10-14T06:59:49Z")
I’m 30 years old and I already live in an area that’s a little too hot. Should I be planning to retire in Maine? Curious about what the current consensus is on this. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/2 "2011-10-14T07:05:13Z")
there was a signficant cooling from 1991-1992 caused by the mount pinatubo eruption. climactic changes have different cycles. depends on what cycle your talking about. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/3 "2011-10-14T07:08:15Z")
I’m asking if anthropogenic global climate change will significantly impact my day-to-day life, assuming I live another 50 spins or so. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/4 "2011-10-14T07:56:12Z")
from just one source, the average increase from 1850 to 2005 was 0.76 degrees centigrade and much of that happened in the last 50 years. that’s what most people are trying to correlate with anthropogenic climate change. so another 50 years might possible bring that average up by another 0.38 degrees. > **[Global Temperature - Global Greenhouse Warming](http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/global-temperature.html)** > > Global temperature is forecast to rise 4°C (7.2°F) toward the end of the 21st century. but then, we already see moves to reduce emmisions so it might not be that bad. an average increase of 5 degrees will kill all humans. less than that and humans will continue to kill each other. ---
**Author:** ![Da\_Mikster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/bb73d2/32.png) [@Da\_Mikster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Da_Mikster)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/5 "2011-10-14T08:22:40Z")
Depends upon which ‘drastic effects’ you’re looking for… Energy prices going through the roof? Probably.— Florida underwater? Probably not.— Political football played with folks livelihoods? Yes. — Continued screwy weather patterns? Maybe. — Hypocrites that talk green, yet produce carbon footprints bigger than most everyone else? Of course. — Another movie by AlGore or Michael Moore? Do you have to ask? — Much less tolerance for small casual polluters? Probably — Much more lobbying cash spent by huge polluters to let them keep doing so? Absolutely. — Intrusive, feel good laws and regs that do absolutely nothing to actually address the issues? Pretty much a guarantee… :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/6 "2011-10-14T09:11:37Z")
We don’t really know. The problem is that the paleontological evidence is that climate change can be very fast when a tipping point is reached. If we reach such a point you could see drastic increases over just a few years. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/7 "2011-10-14T10:06:21Z")
Yes, it will, definitely, in a 50-year window, but not necessarily just based on where you live. Maybe the cost of fish at the store as the oceans are denuded, maybe overall security issues with climate change refugees, maybe the return of tropical diseases to places they’ve been eradicated, _maybe_ more violent weather in places (and _if_ that’s the case, an increase in hurricanes able to make it up the E-Coast means Maine is not a safe bet), _maybe_ rising seas, it all depends on how people react to it and then also on where you live. And it’s not just climate change, it’s the other (inter)related effects humans have on the environment, like water issues, species loss, alien invasives, etc. et-bloody-cetera. But overall, moving from a currently hotter to a colder place is not an adequate reaction. Just make sure you live in a modern country that has some infrastructure in place to handle things, and you should be fine. But I wouldn’t stay in Florida or the Gulf States if I had a choice, know what I’m saying? ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/8 "2011-10-14T13:55:08Z")
> [@mac\_bolan00](#): > > an average increase of 5 degrees will kill all humans. That sounds like scare talk. There’d probably be some serious climatic and ecological distruptions, but I doubt it would mean the end of the human race. You haven’t been hanging around with a robot named Bender, have you? ---
**Author:** ![Yorikke](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yorikke/32/4335_2.png) [@Yorikke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yorikke)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2011, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/9 "2011-10-14T21:54:47Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > We don’t really know. The problem is that the paleontological evidence is that climate change can be very fast when a tipping point is reached. If we reach such a point you could see drastic increases over just a few years. I have a pit in my stomach feeling that this is coming much faster than we think. Joe ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2011, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/10 "2011-10-15T01:21:03Z")
Talk of _anything_ killing _all_ humans is scare talk. I’m hard-pressed to think of anything short of the death of the Sun that could do that-- We’re just too numerous and too widely-spread to be easily eradicated. But that shouldn’t distract from the fact that even if we can’t kill _all_ of us, we certainly can end up killing a very large number of people. And we should strive to avoid that. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2011, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/11 "2011-10-15T03:05:42Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Yes, it will, definitely, in a 50-year window, but not necessarily just based on where you live. Maybe the cost of fish at the store as the oceans are denuded, maybe overall security issues with climate change refugees, maybe the return of tropical diseases to places they’ve been eradicated, _maybe_ more violent weather in places (and _if_ that’s the case, an increase in hurricanes able to make it up the E-Coast means Maine is not a safe bet), _maybe_ rising seas, it all depends on how people react to it and then also on where you live. And it’s not just climate change, it’s the other (inter)related effects humans have on the environment, like water issues, species loss, alien invasives, etc. et-bloody-cetera. > > But overall, moving from a currently hotter to a colder place is not an adequate reaction. Just make sure you live in a modern country that has some infrastructure in place to handle things, and you should be fine. > > But I wouldn’t stay in Florida or the Gulf States if I had a choice, know what I’m saying? Indeed, BTW **Cisco** , while most of the politicians from Arizona also deny that there is a problem with global warming, there was a fascinating piece on NPR recently that showed that Arizona planners working with irrigation and water resources listen more to the scientists than to the politicians, and there are already projects underway to deal with the expected shortages with water precipitation and heat increases on the South West. Where I should be worried is items like problems with the crops in Russia and elsewhere that were made (as things stand now) [a bit more likely](http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/) worse by the increased warming (and that crop failure was one of the factors causing the Arab unrest). It is very likely that surprises like that are coming and increasing in magnitude. The globalization of the economy tells me that even if the bad effects of AGW are mostly showing up elsewhere, it will affect us too. > **[Positives and negatives of global warming](https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-intermediate.htm)** > > \The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.\ Still, if we were planning and starting to ween ourselves of fossil fuels, then our descendants will have an easier time, but who could had thought that we would mostly ignore what the scientists have told us for decades now? As things stand, future generations that will suffer the brunt of it will have to deal with not only the results of a doubling of the PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere, but a tripling. > **[Is it safe to double atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over a 200 year period?](https://skepticalscience.com/Is-it-safe-to-double-atmospheric-Carbon-Dioxide-over-200-year-period.html)** > > We are on track to double pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In assessing the risk, the above question is much more fundamental than asking how much the climate warmed over the 20th century. So what’s the answer? ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2011, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/12 "2011-10-15T04:50:05Z")
> [@mac\_bolan00](#): > > an average increase of 5 degrees will kill all humans. nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2011, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/13 "2011-10-16T06:21:03Z")
> [@mac\_bolan00](#): > > an average increase of 5 degrees will kill all humans. Given that humans live in places that differ in average annual temperature by at least 50 F, that’s ridiculous. If a 5 degree rise would be enough to kill everyone who currently lives in arctic areas, by this reasoning anyone who lives in the temperate zone or the tropics should already be dead, since they are already 5 degrees warmer. ---
**Author:** ![XRaeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/f14d63/32.png) [@XRaeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XRaeth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2011, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/14 "2011-10-16T06:34:51Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Given that humans live in places that differ in average annual temperature by at least 50 F, that’s ridiculous. If a 5 degree rise would be enough to kill everyone who currently lives in arctic areas, by this reasoning anyone who lives in the temperate zone or the tropics should already be dead, since they are already 5 degrees warmer. I’m fairly certain hes not saying that the increase in temperature is whats going to kill people. An average increase of 5 degrees worldwide would result in a much larger increase at the poles, which could cause significant melting of the polar ice caps. this would not only potentially raise water levels worldwide, causing mass flooding, but adds large amounts of fresh water into the ocean which would supposedly screw everything up. (I’m not remotely an expert on the topic but apparently it wouldn’t be good) Will it be enough to destroy all humans? I highly doubt it. But it would certainly have drastic consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Icerigger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icerigger/32/432_2.png) [@Icerigger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icerigger)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2011, 10:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-i-see-drastic-effects-of-climate-change-in-my-lifetime/599610/15 "2011-10-16T10:19:11Z")
I believe drastic effects are now seen in my area of the country North Western PA on the shores of Lake Erie. Climate projections show this area is to receive more rain and snow especially because of the “Lake Effect”. Warmer air temperatures and lack of ice coverage cause more of the Lake’s water to be absorbed into clouds and turn into wet heavy snow then dumped on my head. In fact it was common for the entire lake to be ice covered in Winter, people would walk from Erie to Canada across frozen Lake Erie. Now the Lake really never completely freezes. Near Erie where I live seven the top 10 heaviest snow falls of all time have happened within the past 20 years.