I think the big question is how much Israel can target the leadership of Hamas as opposed to its agents.
If Israel can only eliminate agents, then the leadership will replace those agents with new ones and Hamas will continue to exist. If Israel can eliminate the leadership, then Hamas will cease to exist as an organization. As several people, including myself, have noted the elimination of Hamas won’t be a permanent resolution. Eventually a different organization will rise up and replace Hamas. But that process will give Israel a period of peace.
I think a big piece of it is how Israel’s government thinks about responsibility.
One approach is the “All Palestinian civilian deaths are Hamas’s fault”. I think this is an abdication of moral responsibility–and, what’s more, totally nonpersuasive to anyone already 100% on Israel’s government’s side. As terrible as Hamas’s approach of hiding behind civilians is (and it’s fucking awful), Hamas’s use of a horrific strategy doesn’t absolve Israel of moral responsibility for foreseeable deaths of Palestinian civilians.
A different approach is the “We mourn every civilian death, and we strive to do better, and we’ll help Palestinians recover from the horrors of this war.” As I understand it, there are plenty of Israelis who take this approach (although it’s really goddamned hard right now–just as, after 9/11, I spoke with Americans who wanted to turn the entire Middle East into glass). It’ll mean continuing with measures to minimize civilian deaths, but also instituting new measures. It’ll absolutely mean not putting Gaza under a starvation-inducing siege, as has (I believe) been suggested. It’ll mean major nation-building, and it’ll mean serious negotiating with those who may stridently disagree with the government but who, at a bare minimum, acknowledge Israel’s right to exist.
None of that means not killing Hamas. The terrorists must be eliminated, even as every measure is taken to not inspire a new generation of terrorists.
I am unconvinced Netanyahu’s government has any interest in the second path, beyond the barest lip service. I do believe that others in Israel are interested in that path.
(FWIW, I’ve also seen some truly repellent think-pieces from folks who suggest that Hamas’s actions are the inevitable result of years of Israel repression, blaming all Israeli civilian deaths on the Israeli government. This abdication of Hamas’s responsibility is grotesque).
Edit: I am far from certain of the stuff I said above. It’s my best attempt at making sense of a terrible situation, but obviously I’m nowhere near an expert, and I’m open to having my mind changed.
Hamas is a terrorist organization. They are bad guys.
Palestine is not Hamas, altho Hamas does have a part in the leadership.
I have talked about the unending cycle of Terrorist rocket attack/Israel retaliation/ Terrorist retaliation for the retaliation/ and so on Hard to pin blame in that cycle. But that’s not what is going on here.
Imagine a mexican drug cartel going into Texas, killing about 1000 Americans, wounding another couple thousand, and adding rape, looting and kidnapping. America would go apeshit, and rightly so.
AIUI, this was the plan when Israel pulled out of Gaza, but it fell apart when Hamas took power. If Hamas is wiped out – and I do mean “if,” since doing so without wiping out hundreds of thousands of civilians will be exceedingly difficult – why would the new effort fare any better than the previous one?
Al Qaeda lured us into a two-decade war with 9/11. We spent trillions, and the Taliban still runs Afghanistan. Who won?
AIUI (this acronym should be understood to precede all my posts), Israel made the decision to accept Hamas’s power-grab, rather than say Oh Fuck No, based on some belief that Oh Fuck No would have created more problems than it would solve.
In retrospect, that might have been the wrong decision, and Israel might say, “Palestinians, choose your own leadership, but if you choose leadership that won’t explicitly recognize our right to exist, you’re literally choosing for your government to be at war with our government. Like, ‘we will bomb your government’ at war. So maybe there’s a different leadership you want to choose?”
Well, they won’t be getting a substantial amount of money any more, at least for a while:
The European Union’s Commission is suspending all Palestinian funding until further review following the Hamas attack on Israel, an official said Monday.
…
As the biggest donor for the Palestinians, the European Commission is putting its full development portfolio under review, which is worth a about 691 million euros ($728 million) he said. This included:
All payments are immediately suspended.
All projects are put under review.
All new budget proposals, including for 2023, are postponed until further notice.
Comprehensive assessment of the whole portfolio is being conducted.
One has to wonder just how much previous support for the Palestinians has been eradicated, or a least heavily damaged, bu their horrifying actions.
This, as well as during numerous past conflicts between 07 and now deciding not to commit to rooting out and replacing Hamas. There was perhaps a sense of complacency that they couldn’t do anything worse that shoot some skeet rockets for Iron Dome to practice on.
So rather than commit to a costly invasion, Israel just blew up a couple Hamas outposts whenever Hamas started shooting rockets. The hope was that Hamas would eventually mellow out and come to the negotiating table. Clearly, that was a huge mistake.
By the by, guess who was in Israel’s driver’s seat for almost all the years that Hamas festered and radicalized Gaza?
This. When an enemy does something that looks completely counterproductive, the right reponse is not to go, “Ha! Stupid enemy,” but to ask, “What am I missing?”
Hezbollah appears to be gearing up to go into Israel. Iran may have its own plans for more michief. And of course, all of this diverts attention, money and weaponry away from Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal says that this attack was supported, planned, and approved by Iran. They also aren’t stupid.
A big problem with war is that it often triggers opportunistic wars elsewhere. That’s the reason behind the U.S. “Two front” strategy. I worry that we’ve just seen another front open on a larger, global war against the west. Coups have also been going on in Africa almost unnoticed.
Bringing this around to what Israel does about this, I suspect what they will do is pacify Gaza to the extent it can be, then turn their attention to the people who fund and arm those terrorists. Primarily Iran. Take away the money and the supply of arms, and Hamas is toast.
And that is why you should never deal with terrorists. They have learned all they have to do is kidnap people to get their way, so they kidnap. Instead- rescue the victims if you can, otherwise, break the cycle.
Which would seem like a smart course of action – but not necessarily compatible with nation-building. Palestinians might not feel like they have much of a nation if their neighbor is telling them how to vote.
(Not meaning to criticize Israel here … it’s just that I can’t imagine a future course here that isn’t bleak.)
I’m not saying Hamas will successfully replicate Al Qaeda’s results – just that they have that model to to go by.
First off, that quote is from an “official” who had no authority to make such statements, and the EU has disavowed it. (Which is not to say that it won’t be accurate in a day or two, but as of now the EU has taken no action in response to the invasion)
Secondly, my great fear is that Israel’s response is going to be so disproportionate they will actually manage to lose the moral high ground in a fight against people who kidnap dementia patients in wheelchairs. No doubt they now have the world’s sympathy to a greater extent than they have in decades, and showing a bit of restraint here might dramatically shift world public opinion about the conflict.
It is going to be an extremely difficult decision for Israel. Remember, not too long ago they traded a thousand terrorists for ONE Israeli soldier. Rescuing any significant number of the hostages is likely going to be impossible, as they have presumably been dispersed throughout Gaza, and would certainly be killed as soon as Israeli forces were seen in their vicinity.
I don’t see any practical solution other than for Israel to sacrifice the hostages and proceed as though they weren’t there, but that will go against deeply held national values. But the alternative of agreeing to a ceasefire, doing the prisoner swap and allowing Hamas to come out of this looking stronger is equally unthinkable.