# Will Kavanaugh be affirmed - yes or no? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 28, 2018, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126 "2018-09-28T18:25:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/181 "2018-10-02T17:02:53Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > All but a very few Senators have made up their minds already. In that environment, I’m not sure what “meaningful debate” means. There will not be time to have much debate, meaningful or otherwise. I don’t know that Flakes and the other fence sitters need debate in order make up their minds. I guess they can voice that concern if they have any. If the term “meaningful debate” confuses you, let me put it this way: Should the Senate read the FBI report, and allow Senators to express their conclusions based on that evidence? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/182 "2018-10-02T17:05:54Z")
Friday is the last day they can report. For all we know, they could come back tomorrow and say “we are done”. That would make a confirmation vote by the weekend. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/183 "2018-10-02T17:06:49Z")
Lindsay Graham has gone bananas. Now he says that if the vote falls short, then Kavanaugh should simply be re-nominated. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/184 "2018-10-02T17:08:18Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Friday is the last day they can report. For all we know, they could come back tomorrow and say “we are done”. That would make a confirmation vote by the weekend. I predict the FBI report won’t come out until Friday. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/185 "2018-10-02T17:10:31Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Lindsay Graham has gone bananas. Now he says that if the vote falls short, then Kavanaugh should simply be re-nominated. He must have heard something about the votes that are on the fence, or the information being discovered by the FBI. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/186 "2018-10-02T17:15:55Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > He must have heard something about the votes that are on the fence, or the information being discovered by the FBI. Or he wants that AG job bad, when he replaces Sessions during the lame duck session. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/187 "2018-10-02T17:20:46Z")
Or the Republicans will have the votes after the mid-terms. Flake will be gone, and they very well may pick up extra Senate seats. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/188 "2018-10-02T17:29:02Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Or he wants that AG job bad, when he replaces Sessions during the lame duck session. That makes sense. Trump may have promised that to him if he gets Kavanaugh over the line. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/189 "2018-10-02T17:30:05Z")
For some reason the Republicans seem to be Kavanaugh or bust. No idea why. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/190 "2018-10-02T18:31:40Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [McConnell said there would be a vote this week.](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/409340-mcconnell-senate-will-hold-kavanaugh-vote-this-week) Do you believe him? I think it’s likely. I hope McConnell will file for cloture something like today or tomorrow, let the FBI finish their investigation, and vote shortly after that, perhaps Friday afternoon / evening or on Saturday. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/191 "2018-10-02T18:53:07Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think it’s likely. I hope McConnell will file for cloture something like today or tomorrow, let the FBI finish their investigation, and vote shortly after that, perhaps Friday afternoon / evening or on Saturday. Should Senators be allowed to express their conclusions drawn from the FBI evidence before a vote is taken? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/192 "2018-10-02T19:03:23Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Should Senators be allowed to express their conclusions drawn from the FBI evidence before a vote is taken? Their vote is an expression of their conclusions. If that’s not sufficient, I suppose each one can issue a statement to the press outlining their feelings on the matter. Or tweet about it. I’m not sure if each Senator needs floor time to reiterate their positions. As noted, ~95 or so of them have already made up their mind. What good is accomplished by them restating their intention to vote for or against the nominee again? This sounds like just another attempt to delay the vote, but I’m open to hearing from you why it’s something more noble / worthy than that. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/193 "2018-10-02T19:08:51Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > If the term “meaningful debate” confuses you… It doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/194 "2018-10-02T19:53:59Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > For some reason the Republicans seem to be Kavanaugh or bust. No idea why. I see a few reasons: (1) The GOP has a kind of honor culture such that losing this fight shames them and they believe their voters will punish them for it; (2) Kavanaugh has now outed himself as an extreme partisan, likely a more solid vote for the GOP on the Supreme Court than Hardiman or ACB; (3) Most of these dudes genuinely sympathize with Kavanaugh and see themselves in him and so emotionally want him. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/195 "2018-10-02T19:59:15Z")
Here’s my take on the situation. Senator Flake has already said he is a no if the FBI investigation shows that Kavanaugh lied under oath. It seems more and more likely that the FBI will find that to be the case. The question then is if Flake will stick to his word on this, and if he does will he be able to convince either Collins or Murkowski to join him in voting no. I expect that none of the Democrats will vote yes unless they already know that all the Republicans are a yes. I don’t think a 50/50 vote with Flake as the lone Republican no is likely, however, so IMHO at this point it seems that Collins and Murkowski are the swing votes. As far as knowing which way Collins and Murkowski are leaning, however, I wouldn’t even know where to start. I’ve always seen them as just a little to the left of Flake, but in this particular situation I just don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/196 "2018-10-02T20:13:11Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > … It seems more and more likely that the FBI will find that [Kavanaugh lied under oath] to be the case. … I think this is mostly wishful thinking on your part. > [@Biden](#): > > The FBI explicitly does not in this or any other case reach a conclusion. Period. They say he said, she said, and they said, period. So when people wave an FBI report before you, understand they do not, they do not, they do not reach conclusions. They do not make recommendations. I guess we’ll know for sure later this week though. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/197 "2018-10-02T20:16:42Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > For some reason the Republicans seem to be Kavanaugh or bust. No idea why. Two reasons, one wrapped in the other; first, because he’s an extreme partisan. As he himself let show, he isn’t an impartial judge; if the matter before him is a political question that pits Republican against Democrat, he will side with the Republicans, no matter what the law says. Secondly, but a part of that, is that Trump desperately wants him because he will make rulings that shield Trump from legal action. That is a result of point 1, above. Kavanaugh doesn’t REALLY think that Presidents should be protected from legal action; he thinks Republican Presidents should be protected from legal action. Trump, for obvious reasons, wants that on the Court, and so he’s on Congress’s back to make it happen. The reason it’s confusing is that if you just wanted a conservative justice, there’s lots of them just as smart as Brett Kavanaugh who’d probably be hostile to abortion rights or Muslims or whatever. Kavanaugh is special because he’ll shield Trump from his crimes. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/198 "2018-10-02T20:31:43Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think this is mostly wishful thinking on your part. > > I guess we’ll know for sure later this week though. Could be, but from what I’ve read the initial order from Trump was to conduct that sort of investigation but then Flake insisted that it be a true investigation. Maybe I’m just interpreting those reports in the best possible light, but I think Flake wanted a serious investigation and not just a he said she said report, and that he was leaning toward voting no if the results were of that type. OTOH I seriously doubt he wants to be the only Republican no. If Collins and Murkowski vote yes, he will probably also vote yes to avoid that, and we will probably never know if he really wanted to vote no and was unable to convince Collins and Murkowski, or if he really wanted to vote yes. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/199 "2018-10-02T20:45:17Z")
Here’s what the FBI will “report”. The FBI will give summaries of the all witnesses’ interviews (called a 302) to the White House, who presumably will give them to the Senate. It’s not a transcript (the interviews are not even recorded which is a separate debatable issue), but a summary of the interview by the FBI agent. It’s very common to leave unimportant/non-material matters out of the 302. The Senate should have time to read and draw their own conclusions from the all the 302’s. The Senators could reasonably draw different conclusions from the same 302 or all of them collectively (just like I could watch Kavanaugh’s testimony and think one thing, and someone else could reasonable think something different). Practically speaking, only a few Senators will read the 302’s to actually inform themselves and proceed to make a up/down vote based on the information - whether it be did Kav commit the alleged assualt(s), or did Kav lie - you can use the information in any way you want. The rest of the Senators will use them to convince those select few Senators and for talking points, etc. There’s no expectation the public would see the 302’s (especially if the witness said they’d prefer it remain confidential which is their right). Here’s how the NYT describes it: > [@](#): > > Will the F.B.I. figure out the truth? > That will be difficult. The allegations are decades old, and the key witness to Dr. Blasey’s account, Mr. Judge, has also denied it. Memories have faded, and documents or other information might not exist anymore. And not everyone tells the F.B.I. the truth. > > But Robert Cromwell, a former agent who oversaw these types of investigations, which are known at the bureau as special presidential inquiries, said he would expect the F.B.I. to follow every lead. “They will report what the results are — whether they are exculpatory or not,” he said. “The results will stand on their own.” > > The F.B.I. interview summaries, called 302s after the number of the form that agents fill out, are likely to be dry and factual. Some agents could note any changes in witness behavior if they find them meaningful. Any material contradictions would be noted in the summary of an interview. That information would ultimately be provided to the White House. > > [https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/us/politics/kavanauagh-fbi-background-check.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/us/politics/kavanauagh-fbi-background-check.html) I’d also expect FBI Director Wray to add a memo qualifying the investigation and putting into context what the FBI did, and did not do. I’ll be reading this part with a close eye to determine how much was left undone, if anything. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2018, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/200 "2018-10-02T21:01:15Z")
Every time a Trump fan mentions delaying the vote we should all just reply “Merrick Garland” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=11)