# Will Kavanaugh be affirmed - yes or no? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 28, 2018, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126 "2018-09-28T18:25:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/41 "2018-09-29T08:46:13Z")
{quick simple stupid hijack} I’m totally ignorant to how these things work (I do remember the iconic John McCain “thumbs down” that was a made-for-TV-moment), but these Senators’ yay/nay votes in regards to Kavanaugh - they’re totally transparent, right? There’s nothing “anonymous” about it, correct? I’d hate to think that some of these “on the fence” Senators could cast an anonymous vote and not have to answer to it or defend it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/42 "2018-09-29T08:48:26Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > {quick simple stupid hijack} > > I’m totally ignorant to how these things work (I do remember the iconic John McCain “thumbs down” that was a made-for-TV-moment), but these Senators’ yay/nay votes in regards to Kavanaugh - they’re totally transparent, right? There’s nothing “anonymous” about it, correct? I’d hate to think that some of these “on the fence” Senators could cast an anonymous vote and not have to answer to it or defend it. Yes, they are all public. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 9:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/43 "2018-09-29T09:04:03Z")
thank you **Velocity** , I appreciate you “fighting my ignorance” on that one. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/44 "2018-09-29T11:59:58Z")
No. (1) The FBI investigation is pretty damn unlikely to come back clean. Most probably, it will give the whipped cowards on the fence enough cover for a No vote. (2) Only a couple of Regressives, and there are enough already, need to understand that confirming him means losing the Senate as well as the House for a generation to come. The world is changing, and they’re on the wrong side. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/45 "2018-09-29T13:16:09Z")
He should have been immediately withdrawn when it came out that he was a Vince Foster-conspiracy nutter. That was immediately disqualifying. Then, he lied right to the senators faces about the meaning of boof, devil’s triangle, FFFFourth of July, the Renate club, his own propensity to get sick from drinking and to have blackouts. Then, he lied right to their faces about what his own friends said and in what form they said it – for example, Judge never said in some sworn statement under “penalty of felony” that there was no such party. He didn’t sign anything, in fact. So, yes, of course he’ll be confirmed. Jeff Flake will fold as usual, the two R senators who are women will say they’re satisfied when he told them Roe is settled law and that he didn’t try and rape anyone, and in he goes. They can seat him right next to the other lying sex offender on the court. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/46 "2018-09-29T13:32:10Z")
I wouldn’t say 100% he’s definitely not going to be confirmed, but I’m leaning towards no. They don’t have the votes right now, there are enough Republicans wavering. Some of them might still be yes votes after the investigation and use the fact that there was an investigation as cover that everything is going along procedure, but it only takes two to still feel uneasy and vote no. Also I don’t know if any new bombshells will come up, but the FBI investigators will be able to conduct questioning for more than 5 minutes at a time, unlike how the Democratic senators were allowed. And at the hearing the senators only questioned Kavanaugh and Ford, while if anyone has information they can go to an FBI field office right now to give them that info. Maybe no new bombshells will come up, but I can imagine people coming in with info that clears up some details and confirms that Judge isn’t the straight A choirboy who would drink the occasional beer that he tried to sound like in the hearing. The FBI will question Mark Judge, who wasn’t subpoenaed for the hearing. He had submitted a letter regarding the assault, but from what I understand since it was a letter through his lawyer and signed by him, then it’s not exactly under penalty of perjury, while lying to the FBI would have more consequences, but someone correct me if I’m wrong about that. Also, Kavanaugh definitely lied about multiple things during the hearing, including the Maryland drinking age at the time, his drinking, Renate Alumnus, Boofed, Devil’s Triangle, Ralphing, and other things. The FBI will be able to dig in more to prove that those are obvious lies, and lay out what else he was lying about. So even if there is no absolute proof that he attacked Dr. Ford, his repeated lying alone should be enough to keep him off the court. This isn’t a criminal trial where there is presumption of innocence, this is a job interview, and his lying should show that he’s unfit. I can imagine a Senator not feeling comfortable calling him a rapist for certain but comfortable pointing at his lying showing that he’s unfit to confirm. Also a week in delaying allows more time for people to call their Senators and/or visit them. No elevator is safe from women stopping it and telling their stories. The week also allows more time for the Senators to look at the polls, [and the trend for support for Kavanaugh is downward.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republican-women-support-kavanaugh/) > [@Fair\_Rarity](#): > > Each day that passes decreases the chance it will happen. They don’t have the votes now. If they did, Mitch would have continued the metaphor by forcing this on us. A week of FBI and press investigations, plus any tantrums “Bart” throws aren’t going to help his case. This investigation might not hurt him further, but it’s not going to help. > > If this week goes the way I expect, with more accusations, more evidence, more witnesses, more withdrawals of support, it makes it harder for the moderate Rs and red state Ds to vote yes. They think they can vote for him with a clear conscience pretense for their voters if an investigation is done, that they can say “Look, we had hearings and the FBI found no proof. Advise and consent.” But the I don’t think they’re reading the room right. Maybe none of the undecided votes are up for re-election in a few weeks, but they will be soon. And unlike Trump, they don’t want to destroy their legacy. So again, if this week churns up more drama and more scandal, I don’t know if they can do it. I agree. If there were the votes, then they would be voting to confirm on Tuesday. People are angry, women especially, and there are a lot of senators who will be getting a lot of calls in the next week. I think some will decide to vote no out of being shamed but also reading the tea leaves for re-election. > [@ITR\_champion](#): > > First of all, I obviously never said that Dr Ford lied. I don’t know what you’re hoping to accomplish by implying that I did so. > > I said the evidence leans towards the assault not occurring. Most obviously, Dr. Ford named four people who supposedly were at the party, but all four say there was no such party. Needless to say, nobody has attempt to respond to that. From what I understand, Mark Judge is saying it didn’t happen, but the other witnesses say they don’t remember that party, which is understandable because nothing traumatizing happened to them at that party. They didn’t see Kavanaugh pinning Ford to the bed and covering her mouth so she couldn’t scream, they saw Kavanaugh, Ford, and Judge going into another room and then coming out later, they might or might not have been even paying attention to them. I don’t know what the FBI investigation can clear up about that specific party, but they can establish patterns of behavior, and if there were routinely parties and the drinking behavior of people at them, and how Kavanaugh and Judge behaved with girls. Maybe it won’t be enough to convict him in a court of law for the crime, but it could be enough to confirm that he shouldn’t be a Supreme Court Judge. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/47 "2018-09-29T14:04:49Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > First of all, I obviously never said that Dr Ford lied. I don’t know what you’re hoping to accomplish by implying that I did so. > > I said the evidence leans towards the assault not occurring. Most obviously, Dr. Ford named four people who supposedly were at the party, but all four say there was no such party. Needless to say, nobody has attempt to respond to that. If you believe the assault did not occur, then Dr Ford lied if she said it did. Right? Or is there some nuance/spin you wish to apply? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/48 "2018-09-29T15:17:55Z")
> [@HaroldDix](#): > > Of course he will. Look at the math. Who on the Republican side will flip? Bueller…Bueller. Not a ONE. Plus who knows which spineless, window licking simpleton “Red State Democrat” will think it shows BI-PARTISANSHIP and CENTRISM to vote yes. Quite frankly the Dems don’t have the spine to go down to the gutter and knife fight Republicans on anything. The Democratic Party is the modern Nero. They they fiddle while Rome burns (I know said aphorism probably isn’t true but it’s apt). One will flip because they have one spare vote. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/49 "2018-09-29T15:26:45Z")
Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/50 "2018-09-29T15:30:09Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > No. > > (1) The FBI investigation is pretty damn unlikely to come back clean. Most probably, it will give the whipped cowards on the fence enough cover for a No vote. > > (2) Only a couple of Regressives, and there are enough already, need to understand that confirming him means losing the Senate as well as the House for a generation to come. The world is changing, and they’re on the wrong side. As far as point 2, I don’t know. I’m assuming the democrats will win big in 2018 and 2020. but I’m also assuming the democrats will not use the census opportunity in 2020 to gerrymander, and I’m assuming the public will just vote the GOP back into power in 2022. I am cynical and despondent about what America is capable of. What may happen is the GOP loses congress for 4 years, then gains it back in 2022. Getting that in exchange for a SCOTUS majority for 30 years may be worth it. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/51 "2018-09-29T15:34:46Z")
I’m going to bet wild and say it won’t come to a vote. The FBI will uncover more crap and more character witnesses will damn Kavanaugh and public opinion of him will continue to slide, not hugely because there are plenty of people who would vote for a rapist pig with the morals of Goebbels – just look at whatshisname! – but enough that the optics will look so bad his nom will be withdrawn. Not by him, he’s another one of those power-hungry narcissists that party breeds in their secret underground vats, but by the Powers that Read Polls. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/52 "2018-09-29T16:00:48Z")
That’s the way to bet. Even Trump has offered the thought that he’d have to withdraw if Ford’s story were true, although that was in between bouts of calling it a fake con-job etc. He does appear to be on board with the FBI providing cover to whoever thinks they need it, including himself. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/53 "2018-09-29T16:17:46Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > Under what authority does Congress order the FBI to investigate a crime that wasn’t federal and didn’t cross state lines? No, Congress cannot order an investigation. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/54 "2018-09-29T16:18:28Z")
Yeah, I can’t see the FBI investigation as anything but cover for the eventual failure. They might not be able to conclusively prove Ford’s story, but they are going to get to interview a ton of people who will confirm Kavanaugh lied about plenty of other things. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/55 "2018-09-29T16:24:47Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > Re the four named people who said they were not at the party. > > 1. Kavanaugh obviously denies it. > > 2-4. The gist is that they don’t deny the party happened, but that they don’t recollect the party. It could have occurred, it might not have occurred - they just don’t remember one way or the other. > > The FBI will probe those bland non-recollection statements further. And ask appropriate follow-up questions based on the witnesses answers. That will build out a better picture of what exactly they do or do not remember. “I do not recall” is lawyer-speak for “It never happened.” It’s what lawyers advise their clients to say in any circumstance, not just when asked about a 35-year-old sexual assault allegation. If your former employer was accused of holding a huge cocaine orgy every Friday afternoon, and you worked right next door to him for ten years and are certain that it’s untrue, a lawyer would still advice you not to say “It didn’t happen”. They would instead instruct you to say, “In ten years of working at the \_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Company, I have no recollection of any event in which…” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/56 "2018-09-29T16:27:06Z")
But “I do not recall” is also lawyer-speak for “It totally happened, and I saw it all and remember it clearly”. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/57 "2018-09-29T16:34:32Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > “I do not recall” is lawyer-speak for “It never happened.” It’s what lawyers advise their clients to say in any circumstance, not just when asked about a 35-year-old sexual assault allegation. > > … As a lawyer, I disagree. Kavanaugh said it never happened - pretty clear and direct. Maybe it’s a good idea to ask some follow-up questions to these witnesses to determine what they mean. Fair? ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/58 "2018-09-29T16:36:37Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I really, really hope you’re right. And your use of “a ham and two people” is spectacular. \ Aww, thanks. I always thought it described eternity to a tee and is one of my favorite metaphors. Glad you will now make use of it, too. 🙂 I, too, really, really hope I’m right. Unfortunately, I can tend toward too much optimism based on what _ought_ to happen in a normal circumstance… and **RitterSport** ’s scenario is as plausible as mine, based on what we’ve observed over the past 2 years. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/59 "2018-09-29T16:42:25Z")
HOw fast can the REpublicans get an alternative candidate to vote on ahead of the mid-terms? I think that is a key factor. Someone not so conservative right, not so blatantly partisan, not so open about sitting Presidents not be indictable, but nonetheless a victory? Methinks if a plan B candidate can be shoved thru before the mid terms then Cavanaugh is toast. His friend Mark Judge and others, under threat of lying to the FBI, just might be less equivocal or even spill the beans. Jesus, it would take uncovering one woman with credible claims of having consensual sex with Kavvy in high school to highlight his lying about being a virgin. Finally, Kav’s performance was for Trump and the core base. As far as a job interview, he failed bigly. Christ almighty,in all my years of interviewing job candidates, I’ve never had someone go so far off the deep end. Kav had a chance to show coolness under fire, the gravitas of a supreme court justice, a diplomat forcefully making his points without resorting to deep state Clintonian conspiracies, ad nauseum. I wouldn’t be surprised if his performance violated the code of conduct at Harvard and the standards of which Harvard Lecturers/professors are required to meet. Don’t blame a witch hunt, blame your own performance. Epic fail. After watching Kav’s performance, IMHO he is exactly the mean, nasty drunk that some of his peers accuse him of being. YMMV ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2018, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/60 "2018-09-29T16:49:58Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > As a lawyer, I disagree. Kavanaugh said it never happened - pretty clear and direct. Maybe it’s a good idea to ask some follow-up questions to these witnesses to determine what they mean. Fair? Kavanaugh also said he never drank to excess and that the devils triangle is a drinking game. Even putting the sexual assault allegations aside, Kavanaugh is very willing to commit perjury, and is a very partisan person. He shouldn’t be a judge for those reasons alone. Add in the sexual assault allegations and he shouldn’t even be a lawyer, let alone a judge. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=4)