# Will Kavanaugh be affirmed - yes or no? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 28, 2018, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126 "2018-09-28T18:25:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/101 "2018-09-30T05:32:31Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > Did anyone else see the SNL opener? Good stuff. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/102 "2018-09-30T05:37:50Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > I’m going to bet wild and say it won’t come to a vote. The FBI will uncover more crap and more character witnesses will damn Kavanaugh and public opinion of him will continue to slide, not hugely because there are plenty of people who would vote for a rapist pig with the morals of Goebbels – just look at whatshisname! – but enough that the optics will look so bad his nom will be withdrawn. Not by him, he’s another one of those power-hungry narcissists that party breeds in their secret underground vats, but by the Powers that Read Polls. Your scenario seems most likely, IF he collapses at long last. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/103 "2018-09-30T11:46:41Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > That’s not really my question. Of course they can’t determine if a crime has been committed off a news report. But if Dr. Ford were to go to them and says: “I’d like to file a complaint against Kavanaugh. He sexually assaulted me in 1982.” Would they investigate a crime for which no criminal charges could be filed? Or would they, for example, think: Well, maybe it actually was a rape, not an attempted rape, or some other crime with no SoL issue and we won’t know until we investigate? Or would they tell Dr. Ford: “Fill out this form and we’ll get someone right on it”, and then file the report away somewhere and send here a letter in a few weeks saying the investigation was stymied because of SoL issues or make some other excuse? > > I’m trying to get at what you think they’d actually do. And if you were Dr. Ford’s attorney and she said she wanted to file criminal charges, what advice would you offer her? > > My instinct tells me it’s a non-starter, but IANAL so my instincts could easily be wrong. The real world answer is that it depends on the department and the officer. I spend a lot of time getting relief for bad policing, so I see a lot of bad policing. But I also work with experts on good policing. So I know there is a big spectrum. In such a high-profile case, it would be pretty surprising for the police to not even do an investigation before telling a sexual assault victim that there’s nothing they can do. They would not count on some conclusory or superficial account to determine which exact crime has been committed and whether any exceptions to the SOL apply. Indeed, depending on the jurisdiction, the cops might not even be the ones to do that analysis. Police are also often interested in investigating in the hope they will discover other crimes. Sometimes there will be some kind of collateral crime, like obstruction of justice or conspiracy or witness tampering, etc., not to mention other related crimes, like in the Cosby case. So if my client wanted to file charges, and assuming she has been counseled about the various downsides of doing so, I would pursue it. And I expect there would be at least some initial investigation, taking her statement and talking to some witnesses. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/104 "2018-09-30T12:05:04Z")
Yes. In an ordinary criminal complaint. This is (or would be) one with a massive audience and two sides with functionally unlimited warchests. Every decision would be challenged to the hilt. I have never done historical abuse cases. But, I have drafted complaints, pleadings and affidavits on behalf of sex crimes victims. And represented them in challenges against decisions to close or not to proceed. I have had success in cases with less evidence than Prof Fords. However, in those cases the relative paucity of time passed meant that a thorough investigation could get sufficient evidence to proceed. Not the case here. And that’s before we look at the evidences probative value, which is little. Sure Kavanaugh’s friends say he drank might be enough to change people’s minds in the Courtnof Public opinion. In a courtroom? It would make people laugh. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/105 "2018-09-30T12:40:57Z")
I’m in with 60/40 in favor of confirmation. Considering where the odds were three weeks ago, I’d say the Democrats have done yeoman’s work in trying to block confirmation, which I support. Kavanaugh was sailing to confirmation when Blasey-Ford fell into their laps. Even if they fail, they win; their base, especially women, are energized for the midterms. Lots of Republicans are who weren’t vulnerable now are, with plenty of sound bites to use against them. Kavanaugh forever has an asterisk next to his name. Yeah, I’m satisfied, even if he is confirmed. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/106 "2018-09-30T13:31:01Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > The real world answer is that it depends on the department and the officer. I spend a lot of time getting relief for bad policing, so I see a lot of bad policing. But I also work with experts on good policing. So I know there is a big spectrum. > > In such a high-profile case, it would be pretty surprising for the police to not even do an investigation before telling a sexual assault victim that there’s nothing they can do. They would not count on some conclusory or superficial account to determine which exact crime has been committed and whether any exceptions to the SOL apply. Indeed, depending on the jurisdiction, the cops might not even be the ones to do that analysis. > > Police are also often interested in investigating in the hope they will discover other crimes. Sometimes there will be some kind of collateral crime, like obstruction of justice or conspiracy or witness tampering, etc., not to mention other related crimes, like in the Cosby case. > > So if my client wanted to file charges, and assuming she has been counseled about the various downsides of doing so, I would pursue it. And I expect there would be at least some initial investigation, taking her statement and talking to some witnesses. Thanks. Agreed on the high profile nature and the need for the department to not look like they are ignoring the issue. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see what Ford does going forward. I’d be pretty surprised if she filed a complain, but you never know. Meanwhile, I wonder what Avenati’s next move is going to be. He seem strangely absent from news reports in the lsat few days, but there is a figurative eternity between now and Friday. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/107 "2018-09-30T13:42:12Z")
How much do you want to bet that even the Democrats are praying he stays away? His last few earth shattering revelations have been less so. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/108 "2018-09-30T14:14:10Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Thanks. Agreed on the high profile nature and the need for the department to not look like they are ignoring the issue. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see what Ford does going forward. I’d be pretty surprised if she filed a complain, but you never know. > > Meanwhile, I wonder what Avenati’s next move is going to be. He seem strangely absent from news reports in the lsat few days, but there is a figurative eternity between now and Friday. He’s been making noise on Twitter about being ready to embarrass Grassley and others, but he’s been vague about what he has, as far as I can tell. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/109 "2018-09-30T15:06:00Z")
Trump now says the FBI has “free rein”. If that’s true (never a good assumption with him), then delete any speculation about it being limited and a whitewash. Also look for Pussy Hat rallies next weekend, at least in wavering Senators’ states. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/110 "2018-09-30T15:24:07Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Trump now says the FBI has “free rein”. If that’s true (never a good assumption with him), then delete any speculation about it being limited and a whitewash. > > Also look for Pussy Hat rallies next weekend, at least in wavering Senators’ states. Heard Conway on the news this morning say they have free rein within the limitted scope of the investigation. They are free to do what they are told, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/111 "2018-09-30T18:45:58Z")
If Trump said that the FBI has free reign, well then, they do. He’s the head of the executive branch, after all. Now, if it later turns out that that’s not what he _meant_ to say, well then, too bad for him. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/112 "2018-09-30T18:54:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If Trump said that the FBI has free reign, well then, they do. He’s the head of the executive branch, after all. Now, if it later turns out that that’s not what he _meant_ to say, well then, too bad for him. What if he told the FBI one thing, and the public another? Which is the FBI bound by, his private directive or his public statements? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/113 "2018-09-30T18:58:50Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > What if he told the FBI one thing, and the public another? Which is the FBI bound by, his private directive or his public statements? If that were the case, I suspect someone at the FBI would leak his private directive soon. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/114 "2018-09-30T18:59:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If Trump said that the FBI has free reign, well then, they do. He’s the head of the executive branch, after all. Now, if it later turns out that that’s not what he _meant_ to say, well then, too bad for him. As head of the executive branch, he could also change his mind, and change the orders to the FBI. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/115 "2018-09-30T19:12:34Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > If that were the case, I suspect someone at the FBI would leak his private directive soon. You mean, like [this](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/us/politics/kavanaugh-fbi-inquiry.html)? ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/116 "2018-09-30T19:38:52Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > What if he told the FBI one thing, and the public another? Which is the FBI bound by, his private directive or his public statements? Any sane person would ignore oral/twitter Trump and take direction from something on paper from the White House. Likely McGhan or similar. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/117 "2018-09-30T19:47:28Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > If that were the case, I suspect someone at the FBI would leak his private directive soon. Would you believe them if they did? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/118 "2018-09-30T19:55:58Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Would you believe them if they did? That would depend on what they claimed and what evidence they provided. I’m not going to automatically believe or disbelieve every leak from the FBI. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/119 "2018-09-30T21:00:19Z")
amazing how Brett explained away all those slang words so they had nothing to do with sex. I guess he would have claimed oral sex was kissing or a blow job is where your job is to inflate balloons. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2018, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126/120 "2018-09-30T23:36:01Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > amazing how Brett explained away all those slang words so they had nothing to do with sex. > > I guess he would have claimed oral sex was kissing or a blow job is where your job is to inflate balloons. No, silly! A blow job is a position in the brass section of the band. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kavanaugh-be-affirmed-yes-or-no/822126.md?page=7)