# Will Kevin McCarthy be the next speaker? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 1, 2015, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121 "2015-10-01T10:36:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/201 "2015-10-09T20:42:40Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Not really, from their pov all those RINOS got elected by pretending to be real conservatives and then betrayed the cause. They’ve been calling McConnell and Boehner and the like RINOs for _years_. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/202 "2015-10-09T20:56:42Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Let’s go through the possibilities, in order of likelihood. > > **Likely** > Boehner continues (say, past the end of November). > Ryan caves and accepts the position. > > **Also possible** > Some other House Republican pulls it together. > > **Not gonna happen, but fun to talk about** > Newt Gingrich > A House Democrat > Another Outsider > > ETA: What are the odds of “Not gonna happen”? Less than 10% combined? Sounds reasonable, although there is one possibility that you missed. Namely fairly moderate house Republican gets it but only with some Democratic support. I think that falls somewhere between the “also possible” and “not gonna happen” I guess the question is what will be the state of affairs come December 11th. If Ryan or some other freedom caucus approved Republican gets in then I figure we’ll end up with another shut down. If the situation lingers on and Boehner is still in the seat at that time, then I think there is a good chance that as the lamest of lame ducks he’ll go ahead and allow a reasonably clean budget to come to the floor, since there isn’t anything they can do against him. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/203 "2015-10-09T21:15:32Z")
Let’s say you are a business conservative, but not a reactionary. You oppose chaotic Republican governmental shutdowns and prefer lower budget deficits. You understand the need for health care reform given that the US spends a vastly greater share of GDP than other high income countries with middling results, but aren’t too keen on a public option. You prefer smaller stimulus packages and dislike earmarks. The Republican caucus is broken and is uninterested in governing. Such a conservative would be a Democrat and support someone like [Jim Cooper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cooper) (D-TN5). ETA: > [@](#): > > Sounds reasonable, although there is one possibility that you missed. Namely fairly moderate house Republican gets it but only with some Democratic support. I think that falls somewhere between the “also possible” and “not gonna happen” Nice catch. I’d put it in the also possible category, but below “Some other Republican pulls it together”. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/204 "2015-10-09T21:44:50Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > What are you talking about? There will be a next Speaker, a Republican, within weeks at most. Nope. Looks like Sir John of Orange is stuck with the hot seat for the foreseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/205 "2015-10-09T21:55:21Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > If the situation lingers on and Boehner is still in the seat at that time, then I think there is a good chance that as the lamest of lame ducks he’ll go ahead and allow a reasonably clean budget to come to the floor, since there isn’t anything they can do against him. To the contrary, Boehner is stronger today than at anytime since the 2010 midterms. The Freedom Caucus has shot its last bullet, any threats to depose Boehner are laughable since he wants to get out of town anyway. Plus, they haven’t got the votes to replace him with anyone that even remotely qualifies as conservative enough to advance their agenda. Boehner can do what ever he wants and negotiate with Democrats. He might also could use the mere threat of compromise with Democrats as a cudgel to force the Freedom Caucus to get in line and vote for his [second] choice for Speaker. Either vote in his chosen heir, or they will be cut out of the process all together. It is the Tea Party that is the lame duck, not Boehner. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/206 "2015-10-09T22:04:07Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > To the contrary, Boehner is stronger today than at anytime since the 2010 midterms. I think you’re saying the same thing, you’re just using “lame duck” differently. Lame ducks by definition have the power of having nothing left to lose, and the weakness of no one having a reason to work with them to curry favor. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/207 "2015-10-09T22:58:03Z")
So it sounds like the Democrats should nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger for Speaker and hope a few RINO’s go along. But does the Terminator want the job? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/208 "2015-10-10T02:23:55Z")
I spoke of the devil, and now he says he’s willing to be Speaker(Issa). ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/209 "2015-10-10T03:21:51Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > So you’re saying that we’ll get another scumsucker who puts party interest over the good of the country every time? > > Sounds about right for the GOP. Doing “whatever Nancy Pelosi wants” is not putting the good of the country ahead. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/210 "2015-10-10T03:32:19Z")
Yeah, that’s kinda the Speaker’s job. This is the Straight Dope, spare us the self righteous posturing. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/211 "2015-10-10T05:36:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, that’s kinda the Speaker’s job. This is the Straight Dope, spare us the self righteous posturing. So you’re saying the Speaker’s job is kinda to be a “scumsucker who puts party interest over the good of the country every time?” Just checking; sometimes crossposts cause confusion, but I don’t think you were responding to my Schwarzenegger post from over 4 hours ago. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/212 "2015-10-10T06:04:49Z")
The Speaker looks after his party’s interests. The party’s interests should coincide with the country’s interests, and voters should hold the party accountable for their votes. Kinda like the way they did in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/213 "2015-10-10T06:17:06Z")
Scurrilous rumors abound regarding Mr McCarthy engaged in missionary positioning with someone not his wife. It is, of course, beneath my standards to link to any such disreputable gossip, and I only advise the Boards so that they may steel themselves to face further indignity. Or sniggering, juvenile\* schadenfruede\*, depending. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/214 "2015-10-10T10:05:56Z")
Honestly, **luci** , that’s _so_ three days ago… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/215 "2015-10-10T14:03:37Z")
You’re totally right, and I was completely wrong, I admit it, I confess. I docked my ship in the wrong harbor, and beg the forgiveness of my piers. Anybody know how I can mark this page so that, say, ten years from now I can bring it up when i want to prove I can admit that I’m wrong? Just askin’, is all. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/216 "2015-10-10T14:27:59Z")
There’s no need for that Luci. There are plenty of folks here who will be happy to remind you, I’m sure. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/217 "2015-10-10T14:29:00Z")
Getting back to our muttons, how about Ted Cruz for Speaker. He’s already been doing it, so why not give him the title? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2015, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/218 "2015-10-12T01:27:23Z")
Matt Yglesias at Vox: [These are the 7 possible paths forward for the House GOP](http://www.vox.com/2015/10/10/9489319/house-gop-path-foward). “All of them, interestingly enough, lead to essentially the same outcome: The Freedom Caucus loses, and the must-pass bills pass.” The last one involves the Freedom Caucus simply coming to its senses and curbing their drama rather than forcing the country to participate in it. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2015, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/219 "2015-10-12T02:54:26Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > The last one involves the Freedom Caucus simply coming to its senses and curbing their drama rather than forcing the country to participate in it. I rolled my eyes so hard I saw my medulla oblongata. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2015, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121/220 "2015-10-12T03:24:30Z")
He’s called “The speaker of the House”, not “The Speaker of the Majority Party”. Looking after the interests of the Republican party is the majority leader’s job. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-speaker/733121.md?page=12)