# Will Leo Win His Oscar?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525
**Category:** Cafe Society
**Created:** [January 8, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525 "2016-01-08T20:54:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/1 "2016-01-08T20:54:49Z")
I hope he’s nominated for the Revenant, so a simple question, yes or no?
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### Author:  [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/2 "2016-01-08T21:24:01Z")
If Leo is nominated, it will be his fifth acting nomination from the Academy. Previous nods: _What’s Eating Gilbert Grape_ (supporting), _The Aviator, Blood Diamond, The Wolf of Wall Street_.
His likely competition will be 4 of the following:
Steve Carell, _The Big Short_
Bryan Cranston, _Trumbo_
Matt Damon, _The Martian_
Johnny Depp, \*Black Mass \*
Michael Fassbender, _Steve Jobs_
Michael B. Jordan, _Creed_
Ian McKellen, \*Mr. Holmes \*
Eddie Redmayne, _The Danish Girl_
Will Smith, _Concussion_
The only one of these who has won before is Redmayne (although Damon has a Screenplay Oscar). None have been nominated as many times as Leo, though Depp comes closest.
Also, some random trivia: if Leo wins, it will be the first time ever a white performer has won an acting Oscar in a film directed by a person of color–that is, unless Sylvester Stallone wins for **Creed** first.
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### Author:  [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/3 "2016-01-08T21:45:37Z")
I like Leo, and I don’t think he’s a hack fraud, but I also don’t think he will win the Oscar. With competition from Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, Will Smith and the amazing performances in _ **Spotlight** _, it’s unlikely that this will be his year.
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### Author:  [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/4 "2016-01-08T22:38:14Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#):
>
> If Leo is nominated, it will be his fifth acting nomination from the Academy. Previous nods: _What’s Eating Gilbert Grape_ (supporting), _The Aviator, Blood Diamond, The Wolf of Wall Street_.
>
> His likely competition will be 4 of the following:
>
> Steve Carell, _The Big Short_
> Bryan Cranston, _Trumbo_
> Matt Damon, _The Martian_
> Johnny Depp, \*Black Mass \*
> Michael Fassbender, _Steve Jobs_
> Michael B. Jordan, _Creed_
> Ian McKellen, \*Mr. Holmes \*
> Eddie Redmayne, _The Danish Girl_
> Will Smith, _Concussion_
>
> The only one of these who has won before is Redmayne (although Damon has a Screenplay Oscar). None have been nominated as many times as Leo, though Depp comes closest.
>
> Also, some random trivia: if Leo wins, it will be the first time ever a white performer has won an acting Oscar in a film directed by a person of color–that is, unless Sylvester Stallone wins for **Creed** first.
If this is the full list of potential nominees, then I’m going with Yes, Leo will win. From that list, the most likely would be Eddie, but he just got one last year, so voters would be less likely to give it to him. I really don’t see any momentum with the others listed.
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### Author:  [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/5 "2016-01-08T22:45:04Z")
> [@SpoilerVirgin](#):
>
> I like Leo, and I don’t think he’s a hack fraud, but I also don’t think he will win the Oscar. With competition from Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, Will Smith and the amazing performances in _ **Spotlight** _, it’s unlikely that this will be his year.
But none of the Spotlight actors will be nominated in Lead, Redmayne won last year (which wouldn’t by itself preclude him from winning since other actors have won two year in a row, but he wouldn’t win for this part, and not over Leo), and Will Smith’s movie hasn’t gotten any kind of traction, which is a shame since I thought it was quite good. Same with Fassbender’s movie. Nominations will be their rewards.
It’s Leo’s to lose, and he’d lose only if he’s caught killing and eating babies and kittens (at the same time). IMO. If that happened, and I assume his PR people would advise him to hold off until after the Oscars, I’d choose Fassbender myself.
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### Author:  [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)
#### Post date: [January 8, 2016, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/6 "2016-01-08T23:02:46Z")
I don’t like either of those poll options but I would say he won’t win, may get nominated.
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### Author:  [@salinqmind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/salinqmind)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/7 "2016-01-09T00:11:55Z")
I hope he wins. Remember that guy who looked exactly like Leo, whose picture was circulated online this past year? Someone said, ‘what if this guy becomes an actor and is cast someday to play in “The Leonardo DiCaprio Story” and wins an Oscar for it?’ :D:D:D
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### Author:  [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hilarity_N.Suze)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/8 "2016-01-09T04:40:31Z")
I think he deserved to win at least twice already, and didn’t, so there’s that.
Eddie Redmayne turns into a girl, though, so there’s that.
People who play/transition into the opposite sex usually win, although all I can think of at the moment are Linda Hunt and Hilary Swank. On the other hand, people who really scuff up usually win, too.
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### Author:  [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/9 "2016-01-09T14:40:05Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#):
>
> I think he deserved to win at least twice already, and didn’t, so there’s that.
>
> Eddie Redmayne turns into a girl, though, so there’s that.
>
> People who play/transition into the opposite sex usually win, although all I can think of at the moment are Linda Hunt and Hilary Swank. On the other hand, people who really scuff up usually win, too.
I actually thought The Danish Girl performance wasn’t that great. It was a dull, risk free, performance. Solely changing sex doesn’t constitute risk for me. This seems to be the fault of the director as all elements were that way…but then again The Reader got love in at least a few categories and that movie wasn’t that great either, so who knows what the academy will do.
Some best actor odds I found have Leo at 1:4 so it looks like he is a pretty big favorite at this point. I haven’t seen it yet, but I’ll have an opinion on Sunday.
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### Author:  [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/10 "2016-01-09T15:42:12Z")
You have to admit that Alicia Vikander was great though, yeah? Worth seeing the movie for IMO.
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### Author:  [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/11 "2016-01-09T16:44:08Z")
Eventually, he will. This year? I don’t think so at this point.
I’d be thrilled to be wrong, even without seeing The Revenant yet.
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### Author:  [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/12 "2016-01-09T16:52:30Z")
Nope, he will never win an Oscar. I saw someone post on another forum that in 30 years time they’ll make a biopic about how Leo never won an Oscar. And the person playing Leo in THAT film will win an Oscar. 😉
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### Author:  [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/13 "2016-01-09T19:12:43Z")
> [@Equipoise](#):
>
> You have to admit that Alicia Vikander was great though, yeah? Worth seeing the movie for IMO.
She was, yes, her performance deserves to be seen. The whole thing seems like a missed opportunity though. She had quite a year with that and Ex Machina. Next year she is in The Light Between Oceans directed by Cianfrance and co-starring Fassbender. I’m pretty excited for that.
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### Author:  [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/14 "2016-01-09T19:22:04Z")
Best actors to never win.
Leo
Ralph Fiennes
Depp
…?
As for the question; no I think it will be Redmayne. Just the as in Dallas Buyer’s Club, the issue will win it, although McConaughey’s performance was in general terms better than Redmayne
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### Author:  [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/15 "2016-01-09T19:59:59Z")
Redmayne won last year, they won’t give it to him again this year. Back-to-back Best Actor wins have only happened twice in the history of the Academy Awards.
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### Author:  [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/16 "2016-01-09T20:05:00Z")
Neither choice reflected my true feelings, but I cast a pro-Leo vote because he’s given a lot of good performances and has made a lot of interesting career choices. Eventually, he’ll get his Oscar, and he’ll probably deserve it.
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### Author:  [@gigi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gigi)
#### Post date: [January 9, 2016, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/17 "2016-01-09T20:23:45Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#):
>
> Redmayne won last year, they won’t give it to him again this year. Back-to-back Best Actor wins have only happened twice in the history of the Academy Awards.
Right – Tom Hanks won for the issue in Philadelphia, and Redmayne could win with the transgender issue being a very current one.
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### Author:  [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2016, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/18 "2016-01-10T01:37:03Z")
> [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](#):
>
> Redmayne won last year, they won’t give it to him again this year. Back-to-back Best Actor wins have only happened twice in the history of the Academy Awards.
According to IMDB, it’s happened 3 times. Five if you count the Actresses, too.
1. Luise Rainer:
[ul]
[li]The Great Zigfield (1936)[/li][li]The Good Earth (1937)[/li][/ul]
2. Spencer Tracy:
[ul]
[li]Captains Courageous (1936)[/li][li]Boys Town (1937)[/li][/ul]
3. Katherine Hepburn:
[ul]
[li]Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967)[/li][li]The Lion in Winter (1968)[/li][/ul]
4. Jason Robards:
[ul]
[li]All The President’s Men (1976)[/li][li]Julia (1977)[/li][/ul]
5. Tom Hanks:
[ul]
[li]Philadelphia (1993)[/li][li]Forrest Gump (1994)[/li][/ul]
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### Author:  [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2016, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/19 "2016-01-10T03:14:56Z")
Robards’ wins were for Best Supporting Actor, to be pedantic.
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### Author:  [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-leo-win-his-oscar/742525/20 "2016-01-10T03:45:22Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#):
>
> Robards’ wins were for Best Supporting Actor, to be pedantic.
Oh, foo. I didn’t notice that.
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