# Will Mars Experiment Succeed or Fail? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 3, 2010, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794 "2010-06-03T16:56:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/1 "2010-06-03T16:56:16Z")
I read this [story](http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/100603/top_news/space_russia_europe_china_mars_4) , and am fascinated with the experiment it’s eventual results. Can six men co-habitat a space capsule in almost complete isolation for this long? The results will have great implications on whether interplanetary or interstellar travel is possible. What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/2 "2010-06-03T17:15:50Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Can six men co-habitat a space capsule in almost complete isolation for this long? …without driving each other crazy? ---
**Author:** ![campp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@campp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/campp)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/3 "2010-06-03T17:20:06Z")
Interesting experiment. Biosphere II had one member who had to be pulled out for medical reasons. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/4 "2010-06-03T17:51:06Z")
> [@campp](#): > > Interesting experiment. > > Biosphere II had one member who had to be pulled out for medical reasons. True, but in an actual deep space expedition every crewmember would duplicate the skills of _at least_ one other crewmember and any crewmember that becomes too sick or too badly injured to continue would have to be euthanized. ---
**Author:** ![twickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ec9cab/32.png) [@twickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/twickster)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/5 "2010-06-03T17:56:48Z")
Moved Cafe Society --\> IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/6 "2010-06-03T17:57:58Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > …without driving each other crazy? I voted that the experiment will fail for this reason. IMHO the living conditions and being confined with 6 other people will drive them insane long before the 520 days expire, not to mention the fact that no females were selected. I love my wife and we’re best friends, but seriously we’d fail too, I don’t spend anywhere near that much time with her, every waking and sleeping minute for 520 days. Sadly, I think a “Lord of the Flies” type-scenario may develop and someone may actually get hurt. ---
**Author:** ![rainy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c2a13f/32.png) [@rainy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rainy)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/7 "2010-06-03T18:50:47Z")
I voted that they would succeed, but I do have some reservations. The people actually selected to go to Mars will have devoted their entire lives to achieving that goal. They will likely have the psychological advantage of that driving ambition that got them there in the first place. These people may be motivated, perhaps even people who always dreamed of being astronauts but didn’t physically stack up, but they aren’t going to have sacrificed the way space program participants will have. And they will always know, they could just pull the plug and be with their family in under 24 hours. Undoubtedly that is going to make a huge difference to them. What they should really do is spawn several different scenarios of the experiment – they could build additional “space craft” areas, and share the landing module and Mars terrain just by staggering their starting dates. That way you generate multiple data points in as little time as possible with different mixes of ages/sexes/ethnicities/temperaments etc, anything the psychologists can dream up that might lead to mission failure. -rainy ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/8 "2010-06-03T19:09:44Z")
I’m not sure what their credentials are. If you do thorough screening and get legitimate candidates, the guys who would actually go off on this mission, I think they could do it. But volunteers and a less strenuoous screening process will probably lead to at least one member of the crew not being able to cut it. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/9 "2010-06-03T19:10:07Z")
You forgot the option, “They’ll succeed, but previously heterosexual men will become GWI’s” ( **g** ay **w** hile **i** mprisoned - it’s kind of like LUG). ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/10 "2010-06-03T21:20:34Z")
Werner Von Braun wanted to send six ships on the Mars mission. Obviously to effect rescue and replace parts as needed, but perhaps he intended to rotate crews as well. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/11 "2010-06-03T21:32:04Z")
I think it can succeed. If someone becomes ill the medical personnel will treat the patient as if they were thousands of miles from home with supplies on hand. If the treatment is unsuccessful or if it’s a cancer or something life threatening without specialized treatment they declare him a casualty and remove him from the habitat. ---
**Author:** ![Valgard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7feea3/32.png) [@Valgard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Valgard)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/12 "2010-06-03T23:14:30Z")
> [@Projammer](#): > > I think it can succeed. > > If someone becomes ill the medical personnel will treat the patient as if they were thousands of miles from home with supplies on hand. If the treatment is unsuccessful or if it’s a cancer or something life threatening without specialized treatment they declare him a casualty and remove him from the habitat. For extra realism they could remove the “casualty” and replace him with an equivalent weight of meat in the fridge… I think it’s possible but I wonder what limitations they’re putting on the setup. For example do they have a predetermined amount of consumables (air, food, water, power) and only what they would reasonably have with them to generate/purify more (CO2 scrubbers, water filtration systems, solar panels or some metered amount of electricity that represents what would come from the power source of the theoretical spaceship, that kind of thing)? If I recall correctly that was one of the early problems with the Biosphere2 test, they had to pump in outside oxygen. Things will probably get very tense at certain times. A friend of mine has done year-round research stints in Antarctica and his wife told me about the psychological checks they go through first and the sorts of things that are Really Huge Problems - like one person using another’s coffee mug. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/13 "2010-06-03T23:23:30Z")
> [@Valgard](#): > > For extra realism they could remove the “casualty” and replace him with an equivalent weight of meat in the fridge… > > I think it’s possible but I wonder what limitations they’re putting on the setup. For example do they have a predetermined amount of consumables (air, food, water, power) and only what they would reasonably have with them to generate/purify more (CO2 scrubbers, water filtration systems, solar panels or some metered amount of electricity that represents what would come from the power source of the theoretical spaceship, that kind of thing)? If I recall correctly that was one of the early problems with the Biosphere2 test, they had to pump in outside oxygen. In the OP’s linked article: > [@Yahoo!](#): > > Their diet will be no different to that enjoyed by real-life astronauts on the International Space Station. The crew will be given all the food at the beginning of the experiment, forcing them to ration out their supplies. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/14 "2010-06-03T23:33:48Z")
Bah, our recent and not so recent ancestors have survived some pretty damn horrible physical and mental tests. Is there a small chance someone will go batshit crazy and frack things up? Yes, IMO. Is it likely, particularly if they try to choose the right people and try to make things as comfortable as possible? Hell no IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Valgard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7feea3/32.png) [@Valgard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Valgard)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/15 "2010-06-03T23:44:15Z")
> [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > In the OP’s linked article: Ah, I read the AP article and it didn’t mention that. Still wonder about the other stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/16 "2010-06-03T23:52:16Z")
I think I would be seriously depressed in a week (and I do not suffer from depression). For a year and a half, no way. Also while I don’t know how they were selected, I do know that I have read that “The Right Stuff” people have the wrong stuff for this kind of mission. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2010, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/17 "2010-06-03T23:55:52Z")
> [@rainy](#): > > And they will always know, they could just pull the plug and be with their family in under 24 hours. Undoubtedly that is going to make a huge difference to them. I don’t know whether this will make it easier or harder on them. The real thing–the _knowledge_ you’re stuck in a capsule in the depths of interplanetary space, _no matter what_–might be a kind of stress that’s not really testable on the ground. Unless… I seem to recall a SF story in which a test crew in an earthbound vessel was elaborately deceived into thinking they were making the trip for real. Does that sound familiar to anyone else? ---
**Author:** ![rainy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c2a13f/32.png) [@rainy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rainy)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2010, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/18 "2010-06-04T00:06:02Z")
> [@spark240](#): > > The real thing–the _knowledge_ you’re stuck in a capsule in the depths of interplanetary space, _no matter what_–might be a kind of stress that’s not really testable on the ground. Agreed. But this should get us further along the continuum of knowing what to expect. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2010, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/19 "2010-06-04T01:18:02Z")
> [@spark240](#): > > I seem to recall a SF story in which a test crew in an earthbound vessel was elaborately deceived into thinking they were making the trip for real. Does that sound familiar to anyone else? If you’re thinking about the same story that I am, the crew was going through live action sims like this one, but while they were asleep one night they were sedated and sent to Mars where when they awoke they thought it was just another sim. The difference in gravity was ignored in the story. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2010, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794/20 "2010-06-04T01:22:30Z")
I think it can succeed, assuming they have enough to do to keep busy and distracted. Don’t forget, these people were specifically chosen for this, I assume after lots of testing. It might help for the people outside to create some “emergencies” for them to deal with. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-mars-experiment-succeed-or-fail/541794.md?page=2)