# Will Obama or Romney do better with the "independent" vote? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2012, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398 "2012-05-28T23:59:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2012, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/1 "2012-05-28T23:59:25Z")
Looking at [2011 version of the Pew Political Typology,](http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/) American adults, sorted by their political opinions and voting behavior, now fall into nine typology groupings of roughly equal size in the population, including four distinguishable significant groups of “independents”: > [@](#): > > Independents have played a determinative role in the last three national elections. But the three groups in the center of the political typology have very little in common, aside from their avoidance of partisan labels. **Libertarians** and **Post-Moderns** are largely white, well-educated and affluent. They also share a relatively secular outlook on some social issues, including homosexuality and abortion. But Republican-oriented Libertarians are far more critical of government, less supportive of environmental regulations, and more supportive of business than are Post-Moderns, most of whom lean Democratic. > > **Disaffecteds,** the other main group of independents, are financially stressed and cynical about politics. Most lean to the Republican Party, though they differ from the core Republican groups in their support for increased government aid to the poor. Another group in the center, **Bystanders,** largely consign themselves to the political sidelines and for the most part are not included in this analysis. The Bystander (10% of adult population, 0% of registered voters) vote is one you can’t get, by definition. “Defined by their disengagement from the political process, either by choice or because they are ineligible to vote. They are highly unlikely to vote (61% say they seldom vote, and 39% volunteer that they never vote; none are currently registered to vote). Most follow government and public affairs only now and then (42%) or hardly at all (23%).” The Libertarians (9%/10%) won’t vote for Obama; they might vote for Romney, but they might well vote for Gary Johnson or write in Ron Paul or stay home. “Highly critical of government. Disapprove of social welfare programs. Pro-business and strongly opposed to regulation. Accepting of homosexuality. Moderate views about immigrants compared with other Republican-oriented groups.” The Post-Moderns (13%/14%) are “Strongly supportive of regulation and environmental protection. Favor the use of diplomacy rather than military force to ensure peace. Generally positive about immigrants and their contributions to society.” Obama could win these. (In fact, he’s a very post-modern fellow, he is.) The Disaffecteds (11%/11%): “The most financially stressed of the eight typology groups, Disaffecteds are very critical of both business and government. They are sympathetic to the poor and supportive of social welfare programs. Most are skeptical about immigrants and doubtful that the U.S. can solve its current problems. They are pessimistic about their own financial future. . . . A majority believe that the government is wasteful and inefficient and that regulation does more harm than good. But nearly all say too much power is concentrated in a few companies. Religious and socially conservative.” A group that mistrusts government but wants more welfare programs, that is socially/religiously conservative but mistrusts business elites, could go either way in this election. They’ll be the battleground. (There are also, of course, “independents” to the right of the Pubs (Constitution Party, America First Party, Tea Partiers, general sympathizers with the hard-paleocon POV); and “independents” to the left of the Dems (Greens, Socialists, Working Families Party, progressives generally); but they are not numerous enough to show separately in this analysis. For the most part they will be included within the “Staunch Conservatives” and “Solid Liberals” groups respectively, and will vote for Romney and Obama respectively or stay home.) Overall, I say Obama will fare better than Romney with “independent” voters. What do you say? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/2 "2012-05-29T01:08:06Z")
Wouldn’t a lot of post-Moderns also be to the left of the Democrats (like a lot of the posters here)? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/3 "2012-05-29T01:24:40Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Wouldn’t a lot of post-Moderns also be to the left of the Democrats (like a lot of the posters here)? I don’t think so. > [@](#): > > **Post-Moderns** > 13% OF ADULT POPULATION /14% OF REGISTERED VOTER > **Basic Description:** Well-educated and financially comfortable. Post-Moderns are supportive of many aspects of government though they take conservative positions on questions about racial policy and the social safety net. Very liberal on social issues. Post-Moderns were strong supporters of Barack Obama in 2008, but turned out at far lower rates in 2010. > **Defining values:** Strongly supportive of regulation and environmental protection. Favor the use of diplomacy rather than military force to ensure peace. Generally positive about immigrants and their contributions to society. > **Who they are:** The youngest of the typology groups (32% under age 30); a majority are non-Hispanic white (70%) and have at least some college experience (71%). Nearly a third (31%) are unaffiliated with any religious tradition. Half live in either the Northeast (25%) or the West (25%). A majority (58%) lives in the suburbs. > **Lifestyle notes:** 63% use social networking. One-in-five (20%) regularly listen to NPR, 14% regularly watch The Daily Show, 10% read the New York Times. 31% trade stocks and 53% have a passport. In voting behavior, they’re 26% Democrat; 33% “Indep-lean Dem”; 19% “Indep-no lean”; 16% “Indep-lean Rep”; 7% Republican. Not to the left of the Dems at all – as before, I’d say all those left of the Dems would fall under the “Solid Liberals” category: > [@](#): > > **Solid Liberals** > 14% OF ADULT POPULATION /16% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > **Basic Description:** Politically engaged, Solid Liberals are strongly pro-government and hold liberal positions across the full range of political issues. They are one of the most secular groups. Two-thirds (67%) say they disagree with the Tea Party. > **Defining values:** Very supportive of regulation, environmental protection and government assistance to the poor. Socially tolerant, supportive of the growing racial and ethnic diversity of the country. A majority (59%) say that religion is not that important to them. > **Who they are:** Compared with the general public, more live in the Northeast (25%) and the West (28%). About half (49%) are college graduates , including 27% with post-graduate experience, the most of any group. 57% are female. > **Lifestyle notes:** Less likely than any other group to watch Fox News. About a third (34%) regularly listen to NPR, 21% regularly watch The Daily Show, 18% regularly read the New York Times. Six-in ten(60%) use social networking sites. 59% have a U.S. passport; 21% are first- or second-generation Americans. Many (42%) regularly buy organic foods. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/4 "2012-05-29T01:50:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Overall, I say Obama will fare better than Romney with “independent” voters. What do you say? [Not in Florida.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/23/mitt-romney-obama-florida-poll_n_1538756.html) _Romney leads with independent voters by a 44-36 margin, with men by a 50-37 margin and with whites by a 56-33 margin, according to the poll._ ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/5 "2012-05-29T18:06:31Z")
What precisely is meant by “independent voters”, there, **Oakminster**? Is that people in the categories the OP laid out, or is that including things like Tea Partiers who don’t call themselves Republicans because Republicans are too liberal? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/6 "2012-05-29T19:11:06Z")
Looking at the “Staunch Conservatives” category: > [@](#): > > **Staunch Conservatives** > 9% OF ADULT POPULATION /11% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > **Basic Description:** This extremely partisan Republican group is strongly conservative on economic and social policy and favors an assertive foreign policy. They are highly engaged in politics, most (72%) agree with the Tea Party, 54% regularly watch Fox News, and nearly half (47%) believe that President Obama was born outside the U.S. > **Defining values:** Extremely critical of the federal government and supportive of sharply limited government. Pro-business and strongly opposed to environmental regulation. Believe that military strength is the best way to ensure peace. Highly religious; most say homosexuality should be discouraged by society. > [b[Who they are:\*\* More than nine-in-ten (92%) non-Hispanic white and 56% male. The oldest of the groups (61% ages 50 and older). Married (79%), Protestant (72%, including 43% white evangelical), and financially comfortable (70% say paying the bills is not a problem). > **Lifestyle notes:** Many are gun owners (57%) and regular churchgoers (57% attend weekly or more often), and fully 81% are homeowners. More watch Glenn Beck (23%) and listen to Rush Limbaugh (21%) than any other group. That’s the Tea Partiers, all right. Libertarians they ain’t. Compare and contrast the Main Street Republicans: > [@](#): > > **Main Street Republicans** > 11% OF ADULT POPULATION /14% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > **Basic Description:** Concentrated in the South and Midwest. Main Street Republicans differ from Staunch Conservatives in the degree of their conservatism and in their skepticism about business. They are socially and fiscally conservative but supportive of government efforts to protect the environment. > **Defining values:** Highly critical of government. Very religious and strongly committed to traditional social values. Generally negative about immigrants and mostly opposed to social welfare programs. But much less enamored of business than Staunch Conservatives, and less supportive of an assertive foreign policy. > **Who they are:** Predominantly non-Hispanic white (88%), with two-thirds living in the South (40%) or Midwest (27%). A majority are Protestant (65%, including 38% white evangelical). A large majority (69%) are generally satisfied financially. > **Lifestyle notes:** Most (84%) are homeowners. About half are gun owners (51%) and regular churchgoers (53% attend weekly or more often). Nearly a quarter (24%) follow NASCAR racing. About half (51%) watch network evening news. There’s Romney’s real base, I should think, the ones who will vote for him without holding their noses. But the Staunch Conservatives will at least vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/7 "2012-05-29T20:38:17Z")
In this cycle the post-moderns are the most interesting of the groups to me. It seems as though they might be turned off by Obama’s militancy in Afganistan, Libya, Africa, Yemen, Pakistan, etc. (probably add Syria to that before its over but I digress). Also they seem to agree with conservatives that “the government can’t do much more to help the needy”. This is where someone like Gary Johnson could possibly add to his libertarian base. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2012, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/8 "2012-05-29T22:04:58Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > In this cycle the post-moderns are the most interesting of the groups to me. It seems as though they might be turned off by Obama’s militancy in Afganistan, Libya, Africa, Yemen, Pakistan, etc. (probably add Syria to that before its over but I digress). Also they seem to agree with conservatives that “the government can’t do much more to help the needy”. This is where someone like Gary Johnson could possibly add to his libertarian base. Perhaps – and perhaps the next time they do the Pew Typology it will emerge that some or many Post-Moderns have shifted over the Libertarian grouping – but, neither Johnson nor Paul is going to play even a measurable spoiler-role in **this** election; it’s Obama vs. Romney vs. stay home, those are the only voting behaviors that will matter. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/9 "2012-05-30T01:07:54Z")
To say a stay-home citizen who doesn’t vote “matters” more than a 3rd party vote is strange to me but suit yourself. If anything they achieve the same thing. 3rd parties pull votes from people who wouldn’t otherwise vote or major party voters. If post-moderns see Johnson as an acceptable alternative to Obama, he will have trouble getting independents as a whole, which is the subject of this thread, no? ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/10 "2012-05-30T01:33:18Z")
I think it depends on who independents think represents them more: An Ivy League lawyer academic or a management consultant / private equity billionare. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/11 "2012-05-30T01:56:56Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I think it depends on who independents think represents them more: An Ivy League lawyer academic or a management consultant / private equity billionare. 200 million dollars makes him a billionaire? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/12 "2012-05-30T02:54:53Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I think it depends on who independents think represents them more: An Ivy League lawyer academic or a management consultant / private equity billionare. Neither does, really, but the Ivy League lawyer academic comes nearer. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/13 "2012-05-30T03:11:55Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Wouldn’t a lot of post-Moderns also be to the left of the Democrats (like a lot of the posters here)? I think the election of 2000 taught post-Moderns the folly of voting for someone to the left of a Democrat who can actually win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/14 "2012-05-30T03:12:55Z")
> [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](#): > > I think the election of 2000 taught post-Moderns the folly of voting for someone to the left of a Democrat who can actually win. 😕 There was no way Nader could actually win. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/15 "2012-05-30T07:47:14Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 There was no way Nader could actually win. That’s “A democrat who could actually win”, I think, meaning Gore. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/16 "2012-05-30T11:44:11Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The Libertarians (9%/10%) won’t vote for Obama; they might vote for Romney, but they might well vote for Gary Johnson or write in Ron Paul or stay home. 10% of the nation will vote for Gary Johnson? HAW! These people will vote for Romney. Libertarians are nothing more than Republicans in drag. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/17 "2012-05-30T12:09:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Neither does, really, but the Ivy League lawyer academic comes nearer. I don’t know. As a former consultant myself, Romney’s Bain experience really speaks to me. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/18 "2012-05-30T12:11:49Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > 200 million dollars makes him a billionaire? What am I his accountant? People throw the term “billionaire” around to mean “really really rich dude” like they did with “millionaire” back in the day. Even though there are only about 1200 billionaires in the world. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/19 "2012-05-30T15:20:09Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > What am I his accountant? > > People throw the term “billionaire” around to mean “really really rich dude” like they did with “millionaire” back in the day. Even though there are only about 1200 billionaires in the world. My mistake, I never heard “billionaire” used in that way… Ever… By anyone…Except, maybe, on MSNBC. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2012, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398/20 "2012-05-30T16:09:25Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > That’s “A democrat who could actually win”, I think, meaning Gore. Still don’t get it. If **more** had voted for Gore, he would have won and we would be better off now. Where’s the “folly”? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-obama-or-romney-do-better-with-the-independent-vote/623398.md?page=2)