# Will passing tax reform actually help the gop **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 17, 2017, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886 "2017-11-17T18:47:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/61 "2018-01-09T18:30:04Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > [Well, start here.](http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-take-home-pay-2017-9) Scroll down to the $25,000. It says that they should expect to get about $369. Things could very well change, as that was while it was up in the air, but I am having trouble fiding something that actually compares what the savings are, if you have a better calculator, I’m all for it. > > Then come[over here](https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2016), and see that the majority of the people in the country make less than $31,000 a year. Many of those in the lower half of income are republican voters who voted for republicans because they promised lower taxes and better healthcare. They really are not getting either. > > Even the “middle income” tax payers, assuming they really get the $900 (which will reduce over time until it is actually a hike within 10 years), that’s a whopping $17 a week. You are looking at information for single, childless taxpayers. That’s basically worst-case scenario. More people file as head of households or married filing jointly than file as a single, childless taxpayers. Looking at the [IRS tables for 2015](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-statistical-tables-by-filing-status) (last year available): single, childless taxpayer making $25,000/year or less (the $369 scenario) accounted for only ~38M out of ~150M returns. In other words “most people” are going to see more savings than the scenario you put forward. > [@k9bfriender](#): > > Your contention is that these taxpayers are going to see these enormous savings, and bow down in thanks to the republican party for them. I don’t think so. … Neither one of us knows for sure how the voters will react to all of this in the mid-terms, but we do know for sure that your claim (“Most people will be getting something less than $500 a year back”) is wrong. For the record, I don’t think I’ve made the contention that “these taxpayers are going to see these enormous savings, and bow down in thanks to the republican party for them.” They might see the savings they’re getting and choose to reward the Republicans with their vote. They might not. We don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/62 "2018-01-09T19:03:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You are looking at information for single, childless taxpayers. That’s basically worst-case scenario. More people file as head of households or married filing jointly than file as a single, childless taxpayers. Looking at the [IRS tables for 2015](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-statistical-tables-by-filing-status) (last year available): single, childless taxpayer making $25,000/year or less (the $369 scenario) accounted for only ~38M out of ~150M returns. In other words “most people” are going to see more savings than the scenario you put forward. Like I said, I am having trouble finding a better calculator than that one that actually compares the tax plan to what was previous, so that’s what I as using. I will point out that 38 million out of 150m is still 25%. A minority, to be sure, but not really an insignificant one. I also point out that most people in the US make less than $31,000, so looking at the types of taxes that those making less than 31k are going to be rather relevant. Talking about what happens in a family of 4 making $75,000 a year is great for the family of 4 that makes 75k a year, but doesn’t have any relevance to the majority of people that are not in that situation. > [@](#): > > Neither one of us knows for sure how the voters will react to all of this in the mid-terms, but we do know for sure that your claim (“Most people will be getting something less than $500 a year back”) is wrong. From what I am seeing, I don’t find it all that far off, and even your cite only really calls for a $900 to middle class. Which isn’t that much greater. (And, in fact, in pursuing the article, it doesn’t say if that $900 is for each individual, or for the couple, in which case, they are getting less than a $500 tax cut each.) It does seem as though the majority of people will be seeing less than $500 in savings a year. If I had chosen to say that the vast majority of people will get less than a $1000 tax cut, it really wouldn’t have changed much. $20 a week still isn’t anything that is going to be all that noticeable. > [@](#): > > For the record, I don’t think I’ve made the contention that “these taxpayers are going to see these enormous savings, and bow down in thanks to the republican party for them.” They might see the savings they’re getting and choose to reward the Republicans with their vote. They might not. We don’t know. Choosing to reward the republicans with their vote based on the few percent they are saving for a couple of years is pretty much the definition of bowing down in thanks. Maybe slightly hyperbolic, but your pedantry aside, it does seem as though you are making the claim that the republicans _will_ be rewarded for this tax bill by the voters. I just don’t think that all the voters are that stupid and shortsighted. I could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/63 "2018-01-09T19:14:36Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > What benefit does revenge serve? Instead of trying to out-Republican the Republicans, why not just make it all but impossible for them to operate as their used to? > . Not so much revenge, but we should be playing by the same rules the GOP plays by. Today Dianne Feinstein released the Fusion GPS transcripts from the senate testimony. That is what I’m referring to, the democrats need to play hardball. They need to stop bringing a covered dish to a gun fight and start bringing their own guns. Play by the same rules the GOP does. Feinstein just exposed how the republicans are trying to cover up Trump’s treason by releasing the Fusion GPS testimony. > **[Senate Democrats just released full testimony on the Trump-Russia dossier....](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/sen-dianne-feinstein-unilaterally-releases-fusion-gps-testimony.html)** > > Sen. Dianne Feinstein released the transcript from Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson's testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/64 "2018-01-09T19:32:07Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > … it does seem as though you are making the claim that the republicans _will_ be rewarded for this tax bill by the voters. … I believe it’s a distinct possibility. I don’t claim it’s a certainty. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/65 "2018-01-09T20:41:16Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I believe it’s a distinct possibility. I don’t claim it’s a certainty. Well, sure, I agree it is a possibility. Many things are possible. I just don’t think that the bribe is big enough. The voters know that the cake got cut up and passed out, and they know that they got some pretty tiny slices. We have historical knowledge of this. People didn’t notice the Obama tax cuts, even though they would have added more to worker’s paychecks than this one. If people didn’t reward democrats for a bigger tax cut that didn’t reward the rich as much and didn’t run up the deficit as much, then why should they reward the republicans for a smaller tax cut that goes more to the wealthy and blows up the debt? The only reason that I can think of to expect that is that you think that they are stupid or ignorant. You may be right, but basing your policies on lying to your constituents really only can work for so long, eventually they will figure it out. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/66 "2018-01-09T21:07:13Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Anyone who votes republican based on economic concerns now knows that they are not the responsible ones in the room. That’s been true for 35 years, don’t know why we should expect anyone to start noticing it now. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/67 "2018-01-09T21:08:58Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > basing your policies on lying to your constituents really only can work for so long, eventually they will figure it out. I wish that were a reliable truth. Bribing your constituents can work forever. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/68 "2018-01-09T21:21:36Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > … The only reason that I can think of to expect that is that you think that they are stupid or ignorant. You may be right, but basing your policies on lying to your constituents really only can work for so long, eventually they will figure it out. You went and soured a pretty good post, and a pretty good discussion, with this paragraph. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/69 "2018-01-09T21:47:22Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > I work for an employee-owned company. . Quite rare, overall. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/70 "2018-01-09T22:07:11Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I wish that were a reliable truth. Bribing your constituents can work forever. That’s my point, the bribe is not big enough. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You went and soured a pretty good post, and a pretty good discussion, with this paragraph. I was just stating my conclusions. I do not see any other way that you can think that people will accept the tax bill, as republicans have passed it, as actually looking out for their interests, unless the people are poorly informed on the contents, or are not able to work through it. What reason do you think that republican voters will notice and appreciate this tax cut, when they did not notice or appreciate the Obama tax cut? That they are expected to be ignorant that they got a tax cut under Obama is the only conclusion I can come to. Do you have a better explanation? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/71 "2018-01-09T22:28:46Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > What reason do you think that republican voters will notice and appreciate this tax cut, when they did not notice or appreciate the Obama tax cut? It has been touted quite a bit. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/72 "2018-01-09T22:51:07Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > … I was just stating my conclusions. I do not see any other way that you can think that people will accept the tax bill, as republicans have passed it, as actually looking out for their interests, unless the people are poorly informed on the contents, or are not able to work through it. > > What reason do you think that republican voters will notice and appreciate this tax cut, when they did not notice or appreciate the Obama tax cut? That they are expected to be ignorant that they got a tax cut under Obama is the only conclusion I can come to. Do you have a better explanation? It would probably do you some good to consider how your “conclusion” (“The only reason that I can think of to expect that is that you think that they are stupid or ignorant.”) about what opinions I hold about voters might be insulting both to me and to voters. Next time, perhaps just try asking directly, rather than making wild guesses without any basis in reality. Something like this: “Hey, Ditka, do you think voters are stupid or ignorant”? Then I can answer “No, I think they’re generally in the best position to judge what’s in their best interest”. Anyways, here are some reasons I think it might work out better for Trump than Obama: 1. Tax cuts were one of the front-and-center themes of Trump’s campaign, and he’s largely delivered on that. 2. Republicans will almost certainly spend more time and energy emphasizing and reinforcing that they’ve cut taxes than Obama and the Democrats did. 3. The Republican tax cuts are, I believe, larger than the ones during the Obama administration (although I suppose we could get into the details of it and see if that’s really the case). In general, I think extending existing cuts isn’t nearly as compelling a story as fresh, new tax cuts. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/73 "2018-01-09T22:53:07Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > It has been touted quite a bit. And do you think that this excitement will continue after they see their paycheck? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/74 "2018-01-09T23:08:57Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > It would probably do you some good to consider how your “conclusion” (“The only reason that I can think of to expect that is that you think that they are stupid or ignorant.”) about what opinions I hold about voters might be insulting both to me and to voters. Next time, perhaps just try asking directly, rather than making wild guesses without any basis in reality. Something like this: “Hey, Ditka, do you think voters are stupid or ignorant”? Then I can answer “No, I think they’re generally in the best position to judge what’s in their best interest”. > > Anyways, here are some reasons I think it might work out better for Trump than Obama: > > 1. Tax cuts were one of the front-and-center themes of Trump’s campaign, and he’s largely delivered on that. > > 2. Republicans will almost certainly spend more time and energy emphasizing and reinforcing that they’ve cut taxes than Obama and the Democrats did. > > 3. The Republican tax cuts are, I believe, larger than the ones during the Obama administration (although I suppose we could get into the details of it and see if that’s really the case). In general, I think extending existing cuts isn’t nearly as compelling a story as fresh, new tax cuts. Eh, I threw a “you” in there that was meant as a more general you. I am saying that the republican legislators that pushed this tax cut through do think that their constituents are stupid or ignorant enough to think that they are getting a good deal out of this. I hope that they are not. As far as the other caveats you have, 1. So was Repeal and Replace the ACA, that didn’t work out too well, as when the voters that voted for the republicans saw what they were proposing, said, “Hey, we’re not stupid or ignorant, that bill will hurt us, we voted for you to help us.” 2. You are probably right that the republicans will spend more time on talking about what they accomplished rather than try to accomplish things. I don’t know that that is a good thing, but you may be right that if they talk enough, they may manage to convince the voters. 3. I don’t know about that. Overall, sure the republican tax cut was a bigger cut to federal revenue than the Obama cut was, but as far as how much the average taxpayer saves, I think the Obama one was better. So, yeah, I do have hope that there are enough voters that voted R, because they thought that the republicans had their best interests at heart will be disabused of that notion, due to the republicans demonstrating that they do not have their constituents interests at heart, and the republicans in congress are hoping that the voters stay ignorant and stupid enough to not notice. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/75 "2018-01-09T23:44:33Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > At the end of the day, Democrats (so far) have won the branding campaign on the bill. It’s opposed by 2/3 of those polled, Meanwhile, [back in reality](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:net-HbEXUcYJ:https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/19/poll-gop-tax-bill-304831+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us): The survey, conducted Dec. 14-18, shows a narrow, 42 percent plurality of voters support legislation, introduced by Republicans in Congress, that makes widespread changes to the U.S. tax system. Slightly less, 39 percent, oppose the legislation. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/76 "2018-01-10T02:25:42Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Meanwhile, [back in reality](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:net-HbEXUcYJ:https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/19/poll-gop-tax-bill-304831+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us): > > The survey, conducted Dec. 14-18, shows a narrow, 42 percent plurality of voters support legislation, introduced by Republicans in Congress, that makes widespread changes to the U.S. tax system. Slightly less, 39 percent, oppose the legislation. Protip: Next time you cite an outlier poll, post a link that doesn’t give away the fact that it _is_ an outlier: > [@](#): > > Moreover, the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll stands in contrast to other public surveys that show majorities in opposition to the bill. A CNN poll, also released on Tuesday and conducted over virtually the same time period, shows just a third of Americans favor “the tax reform proposals made by the Republicans in Congress,” while a 55 percent majority oppose them. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/77 "2018-01-10T02:51:22Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > And do you think that this excitement will continue after they see their paycheck? Yes, they are bright enough to realize it will mount up during the year. It occurs to me that they will believe that the tax break will be rescinded as “Fake News”. After all, the Democrats have said it, not Trump. ---
**Author:** ![SingleMalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/singlemalt/32/3961_2.png) [@SingleMalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SingleMalt)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/78 "2018-01-10T14:52:23Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Yes, they are bright enough to realize it will mount up during the year. > It occurs to me that they will believe that the tax break will be rescinded as “Fake News”. > After all, the Democrats have said it, not Trump. They are also bright enough to compare their middling pile with the truckloads the 1% are hauling in. They’re also bright enough to know that the tax break doesn’t need to be rescinded; it will expire on its own unless action is taken. They are also bright enough to know that “action is taken” is a heavy lift for Congress these days. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/79 "2018-01-10T15:17:31Z")
> [@SingleMalt](#): > > They are also bright enough to compare their middling pile with the truckloads the 1% are hauling in. … The only people I know personally that obsess that someone else might be getting more are Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2018, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886/80 "2018-01-10T15:25:23Z")
> [@SingleMalt](#): > > They are also bright enough to compare their middling pile with the truckloads the 1% are hauling in. Did they believe Trump when, referring to the tax changes, he said, “This is going to hurt me.”? I think they believed him during the election, and believe what he says now. Maybe we will see changes in the mid term elections. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-passing-tax-reform-actually-help-the-gop/801886.md?page=5)