# Will people end up rebelling against the quarantine if it goes too long? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 8, 2020, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339 "2020-04-08T12:23:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/21 "2020-04-08T17:43:27Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I think the governor could start relaxing rules for areas showing no virus activity. Without more testing, how do you know there’s no activity vs no **detected** activity? ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/22 "2020-04-08T17:46:11Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Similar in [Kansas.](https://public.tableau.com/profile/kdhe.epidemiology#!/vizhome/COVID-19Data_15851817634470/KSCOVID-19CaseData) Kansas has 2.9 million people. So far there have been 900 cases and 27 deaths statewide. Many counties have had zero cases so far and in but about 8 counties (out of 105) have had less than 10. Moist of the cases are in just 3 counties. If you look at the map on[this link](https://public.tableau.com/profile/kdhe.epidemiology#!/vizhome/COVID-19Data_15851817634470/KSCOVID-19CaseData)basically all of western Kansas is virus free. > > I think the governor could start relaxing rules for areas showing no virus activity. So what happens when I (hypothetically) live in NYC and hear that Kansas has opened up and I want to get out of the house. I get in the car and drive to western Kansas and book a hotel room for a week and spend the first few days hanging out in bars and restaurants and shaking hands with Kansans and enjoying the freedom I have. But on day three I start coughing. Turns out I was unknowingly exposed to Covid-19 before I left NYC and exposed 150 people in western Kansas. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/23 "2020-04-08T17:48:06Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > Without more testing, how do you know there’s no activity vs no **detected** activity? Wouldn’t you see at least a few people being admitted to the hospitals and needing to be put on ventilators? ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/24 "2020-04-08T18:07:30Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > Spring is here, Summer on the way, school is out for the rest of the year and there is no way that most people are going to just skip Summer and stay at home, none. There must be _some_ extraordinary situation that would cause people to stay at home and “skip summer”. Can’t you imagine such a circumstance? For instance, what if there were a big pandemic going around and unless you “skipped summer” thousand of people would die. Then might it happen? No? Goddamn this country is truly fucked if many people think as you do. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/25 "2020-04-08T18:11:45Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I think the governor could start relaxing rules for areas showing no virus activity. It’s good that you’re not the one making the decision then. ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/26 "2020-04-08T19:03:57Z")
After about two months apparently Wuhan had enough: > **[Coronavirus riots erupt near Wuhan as locals leave quarantine only to be told...](https://www.the-sun.com/news/602805/coronavirus-riots-erupt-near-wuhan-as-locals-leave-quarantine-only-to-be-told-they-cant-travel-anywhere-else-in-china/)** > > ANGRY mobs rioted near coronavirus-ravaged city Wuhan  after leaving quarantine and being told they couldn’t travel elsewhere in China. Shocking footage showed crowds attack cops and overturn… ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/27 "2020-04-08T19:30:58Z")
I think it’s important for this issue that government be 1. VERY transparent, and 2. VERY clear. If government’s message is a muddled version of “It’s bad. Everyone stay inside a long time,” people’s patience will wear thin very rapidly. Clear, unambiguous messaging in terms of how bad the situation is and what the government’s specific plans are is key. I’m a patient man, but if I have no idea what’s going on or what the plan is, even I will get tired of this pretty quickly. If I know precisely what the threat is, what the status is, and that the government wants to do X, Y and Z for time periods A, B, and C, I’m good. I will roll with the plan if I know what the plan is. It might not be a perfect plan, but telling the people everything you can is critical in getting buy-in. I am fortunate where I live in that the government of Ontario has been very forthcoming with the facts. It makes this much easier to accept. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/28 "2020-04-08T19:38:27Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Wouldn’t you see at least a few people being admitted to the hospitals and needing to be put on ventilators? In the early stages? Perhaps not. That’s one of the problems with this virus. It’s usually around 2-3 weeks (sometimes sooner and sometimes longer) from infection that ventilators are needed. A lot of these counties have not been locked down for 2-3 weeks or locked down at all. Rural areas of the country are now seeing an uptick in cases and there are already suspicions it’s spreading [undetected](http://statesman.tx.app.newsmemory.com/?publink=1211107bf). It’ll be at least another week or two before I’d expect to see any cases, much less serious ones.That is to say, I suspect they’re out there but with no or mild symptoms (for now). ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/29 "2020-04-08T19:45:23Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Wouldn’t you see at least a few people being admitted to the hospitals and needing to be put on ventilators? Eventually, but between the incubation period and the fact that many of those who do catch it are either asymptomatic or have only mild cases, it can be spreading for quite a while before it sends somebody to the hospital where they are tested. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_chao_goes_mu/32/3191_2.png) [@The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Chao_Goes_Mu)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/30 "2020-04-08T20:38:15Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > After about two months apparently Wuhan had enough: > > [https://www.the-sun.com/news/602805/coronavirus-riots-erupt-near-wuhan-as-locals-leave-quarantine-only-to-be-told-they-cant-travel-anywhere-else-in-china/](https://www.the-sun.com/news/602805/coronavirus-riots-erupt-near-wuhan-as-locals-leave-quarantine-only-to-be-told-they-cant-travel-anywhere-else-in-china/) They are not longer required to stay indoors but they are to wear masks when in public and have been asked to only go outside for essential reasons. Things have not completely turned back to normal and probably won’t for some time. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/31 "2020-04-08T20:54:29Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Similar in [Kansas.](https://public.tableau.com/profile/kdhe.epidemiology#!/vizhome/COVID-19Data_15851817634470/KSCOVID-19CaseData) Kansas has 2.9 million people. So far there have been 900 cases and 27 deaths statewide. Many counties have had zero cases so far and in but about 8 counties (out of 105) have had less than 10. Moist of the cases are in just 3 counties. If you look at the map on[this link](https://public.tableau.com/profile/kdhe.epidemiology#!/vizhome/COVID-19Data_15851817634470/KSCOVID-19CaseData)basically all of western Kansas is virus free. > > I think the governor could start relaxing rules for areas showing no virus activity. [As of April 8 2020: 1,046 Confirmed Positive Test Results](https://govstatus.egov.com/coronavirus) How many Kansans have been tested? If the population isn’t tested, how can you know virus prevalence? Tests in KS and MO are limited to the very sick, not to all possible carriers. Have you been tested, **Urbanredneck**? I haven’t, so I have no idea if I’m asymptomatically spewing. I won’t visit Dodge City for the air anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/32 "2020-04-08T21:09:20Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > What would that look like more specifically? Say Dallas Jones and everyone else in his county are all good little boys and girls and 100% follow the stay in place order. Then restrictions are eased. Won’t infected people start coming into his county, infecting him and his fellow citizens, causing a spike in his county and starting the whole thing all over again? They absolutely will. I was just making the point that restrictions are why they only have 5 as opposed to suggesting that restrictions should be relaxed because they only have 5. Having some areas restricted and other areas not restricted is like having a peeing section in the swimming pool. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/33 "2020-04-08T21:18:09Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > [As of April 8 2020: 1,046 Confirmed Positive Test Results](https://govstatus.egov.com/coronavirus) > > How many Kansans have been tested? If the population isn’t tested, how can you know virus prevalence? Tests in KS and MO are limited to the very sick, not to all possible carriers. Have you been tested, **Urbanredneck**? I haven’t, so I have no idea if I’m asymptomatically spewing. I won’t visit Dodge City for the air anytime soon. Ok, go back to the original site I linked to and you will find they show the number of people who 1. have been tested 2. have tested positive 3. have died from the virus. You have to scroll down a ways but its about the 3rd statewide map. Again, some counties have maybe 4-5 tested and maybe one or even zero tested positive. I’m pretty sure by now all the counties in the state have testing kits available and if someone shows up at some tiny county hospital with symptoms, they would be tested. You are right though they arent testing people at random. No, I havent been tested but I hope to if the opportunity arises. [Good news. Soon they will have a test](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/home-fingerprick-blood-test-may-help-detect-your-exposure-coronavirus-n1176086) out to show 1. if you have it but also 2. if you HAVE had it and now have antibodies against it. PS, there are stories about vacation areas on the east coast that are asking for bridges to be closed to stop the very visitors you are describing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/34 "2020-04-08T21:18:38Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > My county is over 1000 square miles. There have been 5 confirmed positive tests for the Covid-19. Three of these have recovered and are no longer quarantined. The other two are self quarantined at home. No one is in the hospital. No one. But it has effectively been shut down waiting on the zombie hoards, or something. > > Businesses are shut down, people are out of work, and nobody, is sick. And the scant few police are only able to advise you to go home, or tell you that the beach is closed. > [@UltraVires](#): > > What would that look like more specifically? Say Dallas Jones and everyone else in his county are all good little boys and girls and 100% follow the stay in place order. Then restrictions are eased. Won’t infected people start coming into his county, infecting him and his fellow citizens, causing a spike in his county and starting the whole thing all over again? I think this is something we need to emphasize: This disease will spread differently in different areas, with a lot depending on how dense the population is. If you live in a sparsely populated rural area, you’re already mostly practicing social distancing, just because your neighbors all live very far apart. You won’t get the nice smooth exponential growth you see in crowded cities like New York. But that can very easily give you a false sense of security. If you think, “Well, we’re not New York, so we’re fine!”, you’ll still do things like shop at Walmart, go to football games and attend church. And that’s where you’re going to see the infections start. One guy goes to the Big Town Walmart on Wednesday, and gets infected. Then he goes to the Friday night football game, and Sunday Church services, and passes it to several other people. With a two-week incubation period, those people keep attending events, and pass it to others. Then you suddenly have a spike in cases that “came out of nowhere”. By the time people start showing up in a hospital, that first guy, the one who went to Walmart at the wrong time, has completely forgotten about that trip. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/35 "2020-04-08T21:35:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I think it’s important for this issue that government be > > 1. VERY transparent, and > 2. VERY clear. > > If government’s message is a muddled version of “It’s bad. Everyone stay inside a long time,” people’s patience will wear thin very rapidly. > > . I can go along with this. Keep people informed about number of new cases, number requiring hospitalization, number recovered, and where they seem to be coming from. [They did finally publish today](https://shawneemissionpost.com/category/coronavirus/) that 6 of the 11 people who have died so far in our county were from 3 nursing homes. ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/36 "2020-04-08T22:51:23Z")
So, a strategy that places the survival of a moderate number of people against the inconvenience of a great number of people is doomed. That’s just not “The American Way.” Flattening the curve means keeping the whole population alive by not overwhelming the totally unprepared medical services sector in the first two months. It also means extending the total duration of the pandemic by a proportional amount. Half the peak, twice the duration. Ten percent of the deaths. It’s a shame that the virus doesn’t strike the stupid and entitled preferentially, but it doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/37 "2020-04-08T22:52:19Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Ok, go back to the original site I linked to and you will find they show the number of people who 1. have been tested 2. have tested positive 3. have died from the virus. You have to scroll down a ways but its about the 3rd statewide map. Again, some counties have maybe 4-5 tested and maybe one or even zero tested positive. I’m pretty sure by now all the counties in the state have testing kits available and if someone shows up at some tiny county hospital with symptoms, they would be tested. You are right though they arent testing people at random. No, I havent been tested but I hope to if the opportunity arises. > > [Good news. Soon they will have a test](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/home-fingerprick-blood-test-may-help-detect-your-exposure-coronavirus-n1176086) out to show 1. if you have it but also 2. if you HAVE had it and now have antibodies against it. > > PS, there are stories about vacation areas on the east coast that are asking for bridges to be closed to stop the very visitors you are describing. You started off well here with the excellent cite, but then you went off the rails by making baseless assumptions. You’re “pretty sure” based on what? Hopes? Wishful thinking? There may be enough testing kits before long to test everyone who shows up, but asymptomatic people aren’t going to show up because they won’t know they’re carrying the virus. Plus if someone tests negative today, it doesn’t mean they won’t pick up the virus tomorrow. Finally, [up to 30% of the tests yield false negatives.](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/nation/how-accurate-are-coronavirus-tests-doctors-raise-concern-about-false-negative-results/) As much as we’d all like to find a quick way for this to be over and the economy to bounce back, it’s not going to happen any time soon. And experience has shown that [leaving restrictions in place actually \*\*benefit \*\*the economy:](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/02/coronavirus-economy-reopen-deaths-balance-analysis-159248#3) > [@](#): > > On the contrary, cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experienced a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic subsided, compared with cities that intervened less aggressively. > [@](#): > > This result might be hard to grasp at a time when millions of Americans are currently filing for unemployment amid the coronavirus pandemic. How can it be that shutdown tactics like school closures and restrictions on business hours could actually benefit the economy? > > The reason is that pandemic economics are different from ordinary economics. People are NOT going to rush back to restaurants, malls, and other businesses. The minute that virus started to spread here, the economy was going to get thrashed. If you want it to recover faster, stop pushing to lift restrictions. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/38 "2020-04-08T23:50:06Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > Yes of course, but that is not the way the average person thinks. They do not see the positive results as being due to the precautions, they will tend to see the precautions as unneeded if they do not see the threat. I’m reminded of something one of the epidemiologists said: “If after we get through this the average person says, ‘Why did we go through all that trouble? It wasn’t that bad.’, then we’ll know that our efforts were successful.” ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/39 "2020-04-08T23:51:30Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > Having some areas restricted and other areas not restricted is like having a peeing section in the swimming pool. 😃 :eek: :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339/40 "2020-04-09T02:35:40Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > So what happens when I (hypothetically) live in NYC and hear that Kansas has opened up and I want to get out of the house. I get in the car and drive to western Kansas and book a hotel room for a week and spend the first few days hanging out in bars and restaurants and shaking hands with Kansans and enjoying the freedom I have. > > But on day three I start coughing. Turns out I was unknowingly exposed to Covid-19 before I left NYC and exposed 150 people in western Kansas. Damn son, you running for office? Are you an escort? It took Typhoid Mary several years to infect 51 people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-people-end-up-rebelling-against-the-quarantine-if-it-goes-too-long/851339.md?page=3)