# Will Rand Paul win in Kentucky? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 14, 2010, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211 "2010-06-14T22:32:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/61 "2010-10-19T00:48:51Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > The problem is that the guys that don’t have an embarrassing story from college are _exactly_ the guys that Paul’s supporters want running things. Paul ain’t one of 'em and it’s fair to call that out. [And exactly the same applies to Christianity.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13037576&postcount=47) They want conservative Christians running things. If Paul ain’t one, it’s fair to call him out – him and, more importantly, **all** the Libertarians. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/62 "2010-10-19T02:03:44Z")
There’s another angle that hadn’t occurred to me at first. Even though Paul has been running as a social conservative, he still has a modicum of libertarian cred. A lot of the small but vocal and organized “Ron Paul crowd” holds on to the hope that the social conservative positions he touts are saying what he has to say to get elected. Now, two weeks before the election, he’s been forced into a Holier-Than-Thou pissing contest. I like to think that every time his response ad airs, in which he talks about how much he loves the Jeebus, a few of those Libertarians decide to stay home on the 2nd. So it’s possible that Conway’s ad could make some of the hardcore Christians stay home, and Paul’s religious posturing in response could keep some Lib votes away. We won’t really know how it’s going to play until the polls start coming out. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/63 "2010-10-19T02:05:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [And exactly the same applies to Christianity.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13037576&postcount=47) They want conservative Christians running things. If Paul ain’t one, it’s fair to call him out – him and, more importantly, **all** the Libertarians. This comes across as if you’re making a point to me, when we agree. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/64 "2010-10-19T02:14:03Z")
> [@Yossarian](#): > > This should be emphasized. Right now, Rand Paul signs and bumper stickers are everywhere, he’s in the news cycle, he’s got both statewide and national attention. Conway? Nothing. If you were dropped into the middle of Kentucky (where I am) right now, you’d neither see nor hear ANY evidence that Jack Conway even exists, much less is running for Senate. Why the Democrats seem to even be shying away from the fact that they are running a candidate for Senate is just… odd. It is a reflection of the Supreme Court ruling. There will be 6 times as much money spent by conservatives in the last weeks of all campaigns. They do not have to identify who they are either. So the Repub advertising will get even worse the next 2 weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/65 "2010-10-19T02:52:08Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > It is a reflection of the Supreme Court ruling. There will be 6 times as much money spent by conservatives in the last weeks of all campaigns. They do not have to identify who they are either. So the Repub advertising will get even worse the next 2 weeks. You’re responding to a post from three months ago in a thread that was bumped three days ago to discuss an ad from a Democrat. Could you please at least try to be relevant? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/66 "2010-10-19T07:49:15Z")
A few things about that ad: 1. It’s mostly accurate, unlike many other ads (source: [Factcheck.com](http://Factcheck.com)) 2. It hits a fair point: Rand poses as one thing (a Christian) while his older actions indicate something else. Now he could have blown this off as a youthful indiscretion. But that’s the sort of thing you do in a seated interview, and Rand fled from those after he won the primary. So instead he blubbers on stage about attacks on his faith. (Wha? Attacks on aqua-Buddha?) 3. The ad raises policy issues vis a vis tax reform. 4. Given Rand’s new found fear of interviews, the people of Kentucky know very little about him. “Why are there so many questions about Rand Paul?” is a well deserved attack. (A: Because he is a handler-muzzled loon.) 5. When Conway appeared on CNN he said that he’s not questioning Rand’s faith, he’s questioning his actions. It’s not wrong for a candidate to be skeptical about other religions, but it is wrong to mock other religions, according to Senate hopeful Jack Conway. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/67 "2010-10-19T19:18:57Z")
The abductee in l’affaire Aqua Buddha [speaks up again](http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/10/aqua_buddha_lady_conway_ad_is.html). > [@](#): > > “My whole point in sharing [the episode] was that Randy used to be a different person with different views that have radically changed, and he’s not acknowledging that,” she told me. “That is why I shared it in the first place.” > > She added that his college years and views should raise questions “as to how genuine he is about his beliefs now. I have a hard time seeing how someone who espouses beliefs that he used to would turn around and become a conservative Christian.” > > She confirmed the ad’s accuracy, and wondered aloud why Paul doesn’t just admit what occured and move on. > > “Yes, he was in a secret society, yes, he mocked religion, yes, the whole Aqua Buddha thing happened,” she said. “There was a different side to him at one time and he’s pretending that it never existed. If he would just acknowledge it, it would all go away and it wouldn’t matter anymore.” > > However, she also said that Conway’s ad went too far in depicting college pranks as something frightening, and added that the topic wasn’t consequential enough to drive the Senate race. > > * * * > > She concluded: “If he would just acknowledge that he had been a prankful and crazy college kid who at one point in time shared some different views, I think that would diffuse the whole thing.” Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll has Paul at 47% and Conway at 42%, which means it’s pretty much tied. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2010, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/68 "2010-10-19T19:31:51Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > There’s another angle that hadn’t occurred to me at first. > > Even though Paul has been running as a social conservative, he still has a modicum of libertarian cred. A lot of the small but vocal and organized “Ron Paul crowd” holds on to the hope that the social conservative positions he touts are saying what he has to say to get elected. Apparently this “Ron Paul crowd” is not aware that Ron Paul is also a social conservative. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/69 "2010-10-20T03:01:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll has Paul at 47% and Conway at 42%, which means it’s pretty much tied. That’s one poll, and that’s at the outside edge of “margin of error”. I’d love for Paul to lose, too, but let’s be realistic, here: 538 still gives Conway only an 11% chance of winning. EDIT: I should also mention that, from what I understand of Silver’s models, that 11% is probably mostly conditional on a strong nationwide surge for Democrats in general. So Kentucky still isn’t really the place to watch, since such a surge would show up elsewhere first. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/70 "2010-10-20T05:02:52Z")
> [@](#): > > “The tone of voice sounds more ominous than it actually was,” she said, referring to the ad’s narrator. “The way the person is talking, it sounds like [Paul] is some kind of evil-worshipping person who’s a little bit more threatening than perhaps he really is. The ad is over the top. I’m disappointed that someone is making this into a central issue.” She is voicing the same thing about this ad that has bothered me since I saw it online. I am a Baylor alumnus who entered the university in the same freshman class with Randy. I also knew him in passing before that because we went to neighboring high schools and had some friends in common. While we were at Baylor I also had several close friends in the Noze Brotherhood, though I don’t recall knowing that he was a member. Although I don’t know anything about the “Aqua Buddha” incident, there were plenty of other pranks I witnessed in my four years in Waco. Some of them were clever and pretty funny and others were juvenile and lame. The ad makes it sound like the Noze were a bunch of thugs. Has anyone seen how these guys dress up? I can’t imagine how anyone could find a bunch of young guys wearing old bathrobes, Groucho glasses and wigs made from mopheads anything but ridiculous. Spending four years in Waco attending a Southern Baptist university could be mind numbingly dull at times. These guys at least livened things up from time to time. Anyway, I do agree that it seems his views have changed significantly since his college days. I don’t live in Kentucky and wouldn’t be voting for him if I did since his political beliefs are so far from mine. I mostly find it incredibly bizarre that the Noze Brothers have figured into a race for the U.S. Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/71 "2010-10-20T13:40:43Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > The GOP has made religion a political issue, and if you’re going to run on your faith, that makes it fair game. Yep. I remember an analogy Spider Robinson made to the scene in _Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid_ where Butch is about to fight Harvey Logan. Butch asks Harvey what the rules are going to be, and Harvey disdainfully says, “No rules.” – so Butch immediately gives him a knee to the balls and (after a quick 1-2-3 count to start the fight) decks him. If the GOP doesn’t want to be hit with low blows, they need to start setting – and following – rules that put these things off limits. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/72 "2010-10-20T14:35:14Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Apparently this “Ron Paul crowd” is not aware that Ron Paul is also a social conservative. Can’t explain that, either. His devotees I know personally tend to be pretty socially liberal. Mostly they like guns and weed and hate paying taxes. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/73 "2010-10-20T14:54:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s one poll, and that’s at the outside edge of “margin of error”. I’d love for Paul to lose, too, but let’s be realistic, here: 538 still gives Conway only an 11% chance of winning. This race hadn’t been polled in a few weeks, not even since the $2K Medicare deductible ads, so Silver’s predictions are behind as well. A poll done for the DSCC in the last few days shows Conway up by two points, 49-47. You have to be suspicious of internal polls–not because they’re inherently flawed, but because they don’t get released unless they’re favorable. But it’s another piece of evidence that the momentum is in Conway’s favor. I think polls on this race are going to be tough, because it’s going to be next to impossible to predict turnout. It will be relatively heavy in Lexington and Louisville because both cities have contested House seats (both held by Dems, both of whom will likely win, but neither is a lock) and hot mayoral races. They will vote heavily for Conway (especially in Louisville, where he’s from). Local races elsewhere in KY are often foregone conclusions because counties are so slanted one way or the other, so Conway-Paul may be the only vote that makes any difference. If the religious right-wingers can’t be sure that Paul is one of them, many of them may just decide to stay home. I still wouldn’t bet the farm on Conway, but I feel better about the race than I have in a while. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/74 "2010-10-20T15:10:20Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > Can’t explain that, either. His devotees I know personally tend to be pretty socially liberal. Mostly they like guns and weed and hate paying taxes. That’s the problem with the Libertarian movement in America; its leaders do not represent its membership. They either nominate Republicans who don’t care about drugs, or crazy people. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/75 "2010-10-20T15:18:55Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > That’s the problem with the Libertarian movement in America; its leaders do not represent its membership. They either nominate Republicans who don’t care about drugs, or crazy people. I’ve been to many Libertarian-hosted social gatherings. I can tell you, there are plenty of crazy people in the membership. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/76 "2010-10-20T15:21:12Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > Can’t explain that, either. His devotees I know personally tend to be pretty socially liberal. Mostly they like guns and weed and hate paying taxes. Ron Paul never really came anywhere close ot winning, so his devotees were free to subscribe to him whatever beliefs they wanted. His real beliefs were never going to matter anyways. This seems to happen a lot with long-shot, outsider candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/77 "2010-10-20T15:25:02Z")
He might not have come close to winning the Republican nomination for the Presidency, but he’s been winning Congressional elections for decades. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2010, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/78 "2010-10-20T15:29:36Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > He might not have come close to winning the Republican nomination for the Presidency, but he’s been winning Congressional elections for decades. True, but few of his supporters are from his congressional district. And his district is socially conservative, which I suspect is the reason why Paul himself votes as a social conservative. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/79 "2010-10-21T07:21:01Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > True, but few of his supporters are from his congressional district. And his district is socially conservative, which I suspect is the reason why Paul himself votes as a social conservative. There’s a pronounced relationship between voting record and district. For example, high tech districts (Dell, Silicon Valley, Washington State) tend to have reps that are socially liberal but for free trade. This is yet another strand of evidence suggesting that character and personality are _way_ overrated. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2010, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211/80 "2010-10-21T22:33:39Z")
> [@](#): > > There’s a pronounced relationship between voting record and district. For example, high tech districts (Dell, Silicon Valley, Washington State) tend to have reps that are socially liberal but for free trade. This is yet another strand of evidence suggesting that character and personality are way overrated. Depends on how you unravel the causation, there. I would interpret that not so much as those legislators voting that way because that’s the nature of their district, as that they vote that way because that’s what they believe, and the fact that they believe that is what enabled them to win in those districts to begin with. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-rand-paul-win-in-kentucky/543211.md?page=5)