# Will recent Republican politics increase or decrease their seats in congress? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 13, 2009, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666 "2009-02-13T10:12:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2009, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/21 "2009-02-13T22:37:21Z")
Every time I hear Olympia Snowe’s name I find myself wishing her last name were Dukakis. I’d LOVE to have Olympia Dukakis in the Senate. Just to watch the Republicans’ heads asplode. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/22 "2009-02-14T01:55:27Z")
It is a long way until Nov 2010. Look at [538.com](http://538.com) for good statistically based political analysis, although I will caution it leans very strongly liberal, as does reality. The public at large does not like highly ideological politics without a very smooth charismatic character leading at the front, which neither party has now. The last time anyone had it was when Reagan was the President. House seats are largely determined by how the districts are drawn by whom. They don’t change a lot, and won’t until 2012, after the census in 2010. Look for the house to remain similar to how it is now, with the Dems losing a few seats at the midterm, as usually happens to the majority party. The Senate is trickier. All the Democratic voter registration in 08 for Obama, who brought a lot of first time voters to the roles may change things, particularly in Obama campaigns hard. The Republicans have a handful of seats that might change hands. The Republicans playing hardball while the economy is tanking due to the behavior of their Wall Street constituency is not going down well with moderates, those who comprise up to 40 percentage points of potential swing vote. They do not look like they are playing nice and bipartisan and the middle does not like that at all. Obama is very much playing to those middle 40 percentage points with all his bipartisan compromising and stuff. Liberals like me are angry as hell about it because we have a strong majority we should use to get our program through. But if Obama continues to look like he is trying to reach across the aisle and is continually rebuffed, then he stands to gain in in 2012. All in all, I expect the mid-terms to be slight Republican gains. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/23 "2009-02-14T02:05:52Z")
> [@Mach Tuck](#): > > I think it will split down party lines. Die-hard Republicans will likely see Gregg as heroic for not drinking the Obama Kool-Aid. Democrats will ask what happened to the concept of “we must support our president during a crisis” that I seem to recall was thrown around a lot during the Bush days. It’s cynical, but it makes sense. The same roles, but with the actors swapping places. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/24 "2009-02-14T02:08:40Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > It is a long way until Nov 2010. Look at [538.com](http://538.com) for good statistically based political analysis, although I will caution it leans very strongly liberal, as does reality. Very strongly liberal? Care to cite that? > [@The Second Stone](#): > > House seats are largely determined by how the districts are drawn by whom. They don’t change a lot, and won’t until 2012, after the census in 2010. Look for the house to remain similar to how it is now, with the Dems losing a few seats at the midterm, as usually happens to the majority party. I seriously doubt that. If Republicans keep acting as they have, they’re not going to give moderates much encouragement to vote for them. > [@The Second Stone](#): > > All in all, I expect the mid-terms to be slight Republican gains. I also seriously doubt that. Especially since you haven’t provided much reasoning apart from “this is usually how it works”. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/25 "2009-02-14T02:15:49Z")
> [@Crocodiles\_And\_Boulevards](#): > > With the Republicans sending what – to me – seems to be a resounding chorus of "NO"s to the fundamental spirit of the Dem’s chosen method of stimulus, what message is it sending to the people? And, in particular, their own constituents? It seems to me as though they’re listening to their constituents, which is a good thing. I’ve yet to hear a fellow Republican say that they hope that the bill passes as-is. Those three who voted for the bill **are _already_** being trashed as traitors and ignorers of their constitueny just as **gonzomax** suggested. As for the effects for 2010, I think it really depends on the health of the economy once the bill does pass. (it’s almost inevitable that some form will _eventually_ pass.) Reason being that an issue this large is going to earn one party or the other some real political currency. If the economy is still in the toilet, then Republicans can legitimately remind voters that they didn’t vote to throw away more money that the Iraq war has cost. If the economy recovers swimmingly, then Democrats will be well within their rights to run reminding voters that Republicans held up the bill, and hint that if they hadn’t the economy might have recovered even sooner. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/26 "2009-02-14T02:48:34Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Very strongly liberal? Care to cite that? My own opinion as a liberal is my cite. I refer to the cheerleading coverage of the Franken/Coleman election and vote counting. You are welcome to disagree. > [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > I seriously doubt that. If Republicans keep acting as they have, they’re not going to give moderates much encouragement to vote for them. I hope you are right as to results. > [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > I also seriously doubt that. Especially since you haven’t provided much reasoning apart from “this is usually how it works”. It is how it usually works and reason has little to do with it. But I hope I’m wrong. I just don’t agree with Democrats who are getting complacent. The recent victory means we have more work to do in both organizing and campaigning. The self-congratulatory crap should be over by now. We had our parties and celebrations, but we have a lot of work to do against well financed and propagandizing opposition. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/27 "2009-02-14T02:52:51Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > As for the effects for 2010, I think it really depends on the health of the economy once the bill does pass. (it’s almost inevitable that some form will _eventually_ pass.) Reason being that an issue this large is going to earn one party or the other some real political currency. If the economy is still in the toilet, then Republicans can legitimately remind voters that they didn’t vote to throw away more money that the Iraq war has cost. If the economy recovers swimmingly, then Democrats will be well within their rights to run reminding voters that Republicans held up the bill, and hint that if they hadn’t the economy might have recovered even sooner. History didn’t start on January 20, 2009. The economy was put in the high deficit shitter with a series of tax cuts in a time where two major wars were funded by deficit spending. By 2001, the regular running of deficits was a beaten problem. By 2002, it was again a problem and got worse every year thereafter. Republicans will deficit spend as much or more than Democrats if they have executive or legislative control. It is only as an opposition party that Republicans speak out against deficits and vote against deficits. If Republicans want their party to speak out against deficits and for the government not to run deficits, they should make sure that Republicans are in the minority and Democrats are in power. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/28 "2009-02-14T03:37:30Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Very strongly liberal? Care to cite that? Nah. [538](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html) is very straight forward about their biases. > [@](#): > > What is your political affiliation? My state has non-partisan registration, so I am not registered as anything. I vote for Democratic candidates the majority of the time (though by no means always). This year, I have been a supporter of Barack Obama. The other contributor to this website, Sean Quinn, has also been a supporter of Barack Obama. > > Are your results biased toward your preferred candidates? I hope not, but that is for you to decide. I have tried to disclose as much about my methodology as possible. They’ve kept the potentially biased reporting and the modeling as very separate beasts. The analyses are usually spot on. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/29 "2009-02-14T04:04:44Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > My own opinion as a liberal is my cite. I refer to the cheerleading coverage of the Franken/Coleman election and vote counting. You are welcome to disagree. They’re cheering for Franken because Coleman is a rat bastard and refuses to admit he has lost because the longer he drags it out, the longer Franken is denied the seat he won. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/30 "2009-02-14T05:34:55Z")
> **[Specter: Republicans Support Stimulus, Don't Want 'Fingerprints' On It](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/specter-republicans-suppo_n_166875)** > > Specter: Republicans Support Stimulus, Don't Want 'Fingerprints' On It My contention has been the repub party is powerfully run from the top down. The people who finance the elections and and the party brokers do not allow the members to vote against their interests. According to Spector, that is true. These powerful politicians are afraid to stand up against their party. Some apparently feel the economic bill was right but they didn’t have the clockweights to stand up to them. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/31 "2009-02-14T06:34:40Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > They’re cheering for Franken because Coleman is a rat bastard and refuses to admit he has lost because the longer he drags it out, the longer Franken is denied the seat he won. Yes, and that is a political position. One I happen to agree with. But it is hardly neutral. ---
**Author:** ![Crocodiles\_And\_Boulevards](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ee7513/32.png) [@Crocodiles\_And\_Boulevards](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crocodiles_And_Boulevards)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/32 "2009-02-14T08:41:04Z")
So what could the Repubs do to actually succeed in regaining seats in congress? And I mean through their own ideas as opposed to benefiting from a Dem screw-up. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/33 "2009-02-14T09:14:39Z")
Seems like the premise of this entire debate is that the R’s are only for tax cuts and the D’s only wanted reasonable social spending. If some of the obvious crap in this bill is ever reported widely, I think the D’s are in trouble. That’s a BIG IF. That also assumes that the economy will not recover significantly in the nect two years … if it does, the D’s have no problem. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/34 "2009-02-14T11:09:32Z")
> [@L. G. Butts](#): > > I don’t remember this at all… What newspapers were you reading? > > Meh, doesn’t matter. I am sure that this type of rhetoric is always in evidence after an election where the power shifts, but I cannot remember the Democrats crowing like the Republicans did with President Bush. Permanent Republican majority, a clear mandate, and all that Jazz. To be fair, “Permanent Republican majority” wasn’t crowing, it was Karl Rove’s plan to so thoroughly rig the electoral system that Republicans would be elected no matter how many people vote Dem. That’s what the business of replacing honest federal district attorneys with party hacks was all about. These are the people who would prosecute for electoral fraud on the federal level. With them in his pocket, he could get away with anything, given another Republican presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Crocodiles\_And\_Boulevards](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ee7513/32.png) [@Crocodiles\_And\_Boulevards](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crocodiles_And_Boulevards)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2009, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/35 "2009-02-14T23:30:51Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Seems like the premise of this entire debate is that the R’s are only for tax cuts and the D’s only wanted reasonable social spending. > > If some of the obvious crap in this bill is ever reported widely, I think the D’s are in trouble. That’s a BIG IF. That also assumes that the economy will not recover significantly in the nect two years … if it does, the D’s have no problem. That’s more of what I was trying to find out. Is there something in the bill that the Repubs could focus on to raise hell about? The reason it looks likes the Repubs are “tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts” is because they’ve allowed their political message to look like that. Surely there is a different angle that they could take with their political message that looks significantly more principled (and therefore virtuous) to the public at large. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2009, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/36 "2009-02-15T00:42:53Z")
[Democratic popularity has grown, Republican popularity has dropped](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/14/13452/3284/620/697060), over the last month, and Nancy Pelosi, the arch-demoness to all Right-thinking Americans, is the only Congressional leader with a net positive favorability rating according to one polling firm, Research 2000. > [@](#): > > Not only have the already unpopular congressional Republicans seen their net favorability ratings drop 10 points in a matter of a few weeks, but they now face a net 36-point deficit compared to congressional Democrats. And it’s not as if congressional Democrats are all that popular (they’re obviously not), it’s just that people really hate the Republicans. > > And how about the House leadership? The supposedly hated “San Francisco Liberal” Nancy Pelosi not only has the only net-positive favorability rating of the bunch, but she has a net favorability advantage of 40 points over her hapless and clueless Republican counterpart. The 18-point gap in the net favorability ratings in the Senate leadership is less dramatic, but still significant. Especially since Democrats are stuck with the ineffective Harry Reid as their leader. > > And it gets even worse once you dive into the crosstabs. Among independents, only 15 percent have favorable views of congressional Republicans, with 70 percent disliking them. And only in the South do congressional Republicans hit 30 percent favorability (the same, ironically, as Democrats), with a whopping 57 percent disliking them in their own stronghold. And that’s fantastic compared to the rest of the country – It’s 10/79 in the Northeast, 17/72 in the Midwest, and 16/73 in the West. Ouch. Aside from the 30 favorables in the South, congressional Democrats hit at least 42 percent in the other regions. Now, that’s Kos writing on Daily Kos. Yes, consider the source. Thing is, all the polling firms whose output I’ve been able to track down are singing the same tune. Take a look at the charts in that article and then tell me that the Republican Party doesn’t have a massively deep hole to clamber out of. A year and a half is a long time, politically. A lot could change between now and then, true. But currently the American public is by and large not buying what the GOP is selling. I leave you with one last quote from Kos: > [@](#): > > The Democratic Party is only five points down in net favorability in the South, the GOP’s “stronghold”, while it blows them away in every other region. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2009, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/37 "2009-02-15T20:44:40Z")
The GOP has been the Party of No for a long time, & they appear to think it’s their source of appeal. Perhaps it is. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2009, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/38 "2009-02-15T21:17:44Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > [Democratic popularity has grown, Republican popularity has dropped](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/14/13452/3284/620/697060), over the last month … > Now, that’s Kos writing on Daily Kos. Yes, consider the source. Thing is, all the polling firms whose output I’ve been able to track down are singing the same tune. … Some of that same tune is [that Pew:](http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1098/democratic-favorability-advantage-widens) > [@](#): > > finds the Democratic Party with a vast favorability advantage over the GOP. More than six-in-ten Americans (62%) say they have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 40% who say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party. > > The current Democratic favorability advantage is the largest measured in nearly two decades. The widening gap is primarily a result of an increase in favorable views of the Democratic Party since the election, up from 57% in late October 2008. … Even among white evangelical Protestants, who are some of the most loyal supporters of the Republican Party, opinions about the two parties are about even. Fully half of white evangelicals have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party and about the same number (48%) say they have a positive opinion of the GOP. … But again, how else can they play the cards they have in their hand? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2009, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/39 "2009-02-15T22:44:29Z")
The problem is that the Pubbies have been singing “cut taxes” forever, they had eight years to do it, they did it in some respects, and it didn’t work. They have zero credibility with moderates. The only people that are still buying that line are a dwindling number of conservatives. Also, a lot of people remember that the Republican Congressional leadership was in **lockstep** (remember that term?) with Bush for most of his administration. His failures are their failures. That’s the real reason the Republicans are in the toilet, and likely to stay there. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2009, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666/40 "2009-02-21T05:32:32Z")
On 538 Nate Silver says of the 15 senate seats most likely to change hands in 2010, about 10 are GOP seats. Of the 5 dem seats several are in strong dem states like Delaware, Illinois & Connecticut. The GOP will lose seats in 2010 in the senate. I have no idea how many they will lose in the house though, as most of the seats they’ve lost so far are in fairly moderate districts. I am guessing they may have already lost as many moderate seats as they can. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-recent-republican-politics-increase-or-decrease-their-seats-in-congress/485666.md?page=3)