# Will Repubs keep the House? Dems the Senate?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [September 21, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429 "2012-09-21T20:18:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429/1 "2012-09-21T20:18:17Z")

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Are there any projections yet if power will shift in the House and Senate?

How strong is the Republican House majority? The Democrat Senate majority, is it secure?

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**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429/2 "2012-09-21T20:29:12Z")

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Well, Durbin, a democrat thinks the majoritys will stay about the same.

[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/18/durbin-predicts-republicans-will-keep-house-majority/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/18/durbin-predicts-republicans-will-keep-house-majority/)

> [@](#):
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> “I think it’s likely we’ll see an outcome similar to what we have today,” Durbin told the Arlington Heights Daily Herald. He described a “Democratic majority in the Senate but not 60 votes, and a Republican majority in the House but less than it is today.”

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**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429/3 "2012-09-21T20:29:57Z")

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The Dems have something of an uphill battle to keep the Senate this year, as they were defending considerably more seats and had several retirements in places like Virginia and Indiana where the GOP has a general edge.

But the polls have been improving for their candidates in the last few weeks. And they’ve had a few lucky breaks, with Akin screwing up what should have been a GOP cakewalk in Missouri and Olympia Snowe calling it quits in Maine. And of course, the rising Dem chance of keeping the Vice Presidency also improves their odds, as the VP decides tie-votes.

So Nate Silver has bumped them up from a 40% chance of having a majority to something north of 70%.

The Dems are also projected to win seats in the House, but not many people think they’ll win the 25ish contests they’d need to gain control. FWIW, [here’s a counter-argument](http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/) to the conventional wisdom.

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**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\
**Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-repubs-keep-the-house-dems-the-senate/635429/4 "2012-09-21T20:32:46Z")

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Nate Silver currently projects the Democrats will hold the Senate with, on average, 51.9 seats.

He doesn’t do the House, but [Sam Wang at Princeton](http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/) recently made news by predicting the Dems will take the House too. Most prediction systems have not gone that far, although the generic congressional ballot has [shifted towards the Dems](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html) pretty strongly in the past few weeks.