# Will Russia invade the Ukraine? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 3, 2014, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281 "2014-04-03T18:49:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2014, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/1 "2014-04-03T18:49:16Z")
We have a number of threads concerning the tense situation between Russia, the Ukraine and the Crimea. Peripherally the question in this OP has been touched on, but I don’t think anyone has really explored it in depth. I’m going to base the questions in this OP off of [this](http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-troop-buildup/index.html?iid=article_sidebar) CNN piece: > [@](#): > > What do we know about Russia’s troop buildup on Ukraine’s border? > > Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) – Both Kiev and Washington say that Russian forces are massing in large numbers near Ukraine’s eastern border – and that they represent a threat to Ukraine and potentially to other former Soviet states. > > It’s hard to pin down an exact figure, amid a welter of different views, but the U.S. and Ukraine agree the number of Russian soldiers present has risen fast in recent weeks. > [@](#): > > United States: > > Russia may have as many as 40,000 troops near its western border with Ukraine, two U.S. officials said last week. > > But the officials stressed this was only an estimate, largely based on satellite imagery, saying that it is difficult to come to a firm assessment because the Russians are continuing to move units around. Early last week, U.S. officials put the number at more than 30,000, up by 10,000 from what it was a week to 10 days before. > [@](#): > > Ukraine: > > Ukraine’s estimate of the number of Russian troops at the border is 88,000, a spokesman for the Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council, Yarema Dukh, told CNN on Thursday. > > Earlier in the week, National Security Council sources put the number at up to 100,000, including units not immediately on the border that could be rapidly deployed from other nearby areas in the event of a Russian incursion into Ukraine. > [@](#): > > Russia: > > Russia’s Defense Ministry says it is carrying out snap military exercises in its southern and western districts. The numbers it says are involved in the drills – due to run until the end of March – are much smaller than those cited by Washington or Kiev. > > • One Russian infantry battalion is being withdrawn from Russia’s southern Rostov region, having finished military exercises, state news agency ITAR-Tass reported Monday. It is returning to its base in the Samara region, hundreds of miles from the border, the outlet said, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry. It’s not clear how many soldiers are concerned, but a battalion would typically number in the hundreds. > > • On March 13, Russia said that about 8,500 members of artillery units were training in the southern military district, using weaponry including multiple rocket launchers, howitzers and anti-tank cannons. > > • These artillery exercises are taking place in the Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk and Tambov regions, all near the border with Ukraine. > > • On March 11, the Defense Ministry said about 4,000 paratroopers were taking part in airborne exercises in Russia’s western military district, including the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine. > > • Russia also had about 22,000 troops in Crimea as of last week, according to President Vladimir Putin. Up to 25,000 were allowed in Crimea under the terms of Russia’s lease of the Sevastopol naval base there. > [@](#): > > NATO: > > Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday that NATO “cannot confirm that Russia is withdrawing its troops” from Ukraine’s border. > > “This is not what we’re seeing. And this massive military buildup can in no way contribute to a de-escalation of the situation,” he said. > > Gen. Philip Breedlove, head of the U.S. European Command and military chief of NATO, previously said the Russian force is “very sizable.” > [@](#): > > Analysis from Igor Sutyagin, of UK-based defense think tank RUSI: > > Sutyagin, an expert on Russian military matters whose assessment is based on Russian, Ukrainian and Eastern sources, rather than Western, puts the number of Russian combat troops at 30,000 to 40,000 in total. > > Including the support troops also present, for example in transport and communications units, gives a significantly higher number and explains the disparity in estimates given by Ukraine and others, he added. > > There are four groups of these Russian forces dispersed along the borders of Ukrainian territory, he said. > > One group is in Crimea, the southeastern peninsula now annexed to Russia, while the three other groups are positioned in a kind of triangle oriented toward three eastern Ukrainian cites: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk. There are also reserve forces deeper in Russian territory. > > The forces grouped in southern Russia, near the cities of Taganrog and Rostov on Don, number several thousand, he said. > > Sutyagin says he does not believe that forces in Russia’s western and southern military districts are on the snap exercises claimed by the Ministry of Defense. I’m not sure why more attention hasn’t been given to this topic. The possible implications of this are pretty frightening. That said, it seems crazy that the Russian’s might pull the trigger on a war with the Ukraine at this time. To me, it seems more likely that what Russia is really doing is basically making sure their land grab in the Crimea is unchallenged by showing the Ukraine a hammer that they will use on them if the Ukraine tries to use force to object to their loss of the Crimea. I suppose along those same lines, what Russia could be doing is putting forces in place in case they do provoke another Georgia and have an excuse to slice off more of the Ukraine while maintaining the fiction that they were attacked and are merely responding with force in kind. Or, maybe Russia is actually contemplating pushing this now, at this time in the thought that the West won’t really do anything if Russia bulldozes through the entire Ukraine (perhaps they figure that the Ukraine will or would fold if push came to shove and without much bloodshed). What do you 'dopers think? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2014, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/2 "2014-04-03T20:41:15Z")
I think they are keeping their options open, and if there is an opportunity, they will. If not, they will keep an intimidating presence so that Ukraine will lean more east than west. I suspect that will have the opposite effect. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2014, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/3 "2014-04-03T20:58:55Z")
Looks like Russia [recalled their ambassador](http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2) to NATO (I didn’t even realize people had ambassadors to NATO). Not sure if that means anything or not, but Russia is certainly willing to escalate toe to toe with the West. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/4 "2014-04-03T22:43:39Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Looks like Russia [recalled their ambassador](http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2) to NATO (I didn’t even realize people had ambassadors to NATO). Not sure if that means anything or not, but Russia is certainly willing to escalate toe to toe with the West. That’s hard to call a Russian escalation. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2014, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/5 "2014-04-03T23:05:00Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > That’s hard to call a Russian escalation. Really? Usually recalling an ambassador is pretty serious, though granted I don’t really know what an ambassador to NATO really means in these terms. Why do you think it’s not an escalation? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/6 "2014-04-04T00:43:48Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Really? Usually recalling an ambassador is pretty serious, though granted I don’t really know what an ambassador to NATO really means in these terms. Why do you think it’s not an escalation? Well firstly, as stated in your link, it comes after NATO announced it was halting cooperation with Russia. So it’s a predictable response. Secondly, it is pretty meaningless at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Capt\_Kirk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@Capt\_Kirk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_Kirk)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/7 "2014-04-04T00:46:35Z")
According to the BBC, Russia is now claiming to have arrested 24 Ukrainian Terrorists inside Russia. The Russians are claiming these people are from the Right Wing/Nazi groups that they have been warning about WRT the power change in Ukraine. Sounds to me like they have their pretext for a full tilt invasion all lined up. **Capt** ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/8 "2014-04-04T01:02:16Z")
I think that Russia will move into eastern Ukraine using the same flimsy premise that they used in Crimea (aiding ethnic Russians facing “oppression.”). This will cause condemnation from the West but once they are in, they’ll stay put as there will be no reason for them to leave. The only things that I see preventing this from occurring would be: [ol] [li]\*\*A sizable NATO build up in the countries bordering Ukraine \*\*- Probably not going to happen[/li][li] **The US unilaterally and publicly stating that it will provide the Ukraine with military and technical assistance** - Also unlikely as it would require that current NATO members allow that their airspace,sea lanes and facilities be utilized for this effort.[/li][li] **The current Ukrainian government taking a far tougher line than it has to date** - Possible, but not appearing to be likely as the government is showing itself to weak and ineffective right now.[/li][/ol] Frankly the Russian military isn’t even impressive on paper and it hasn’t won a significant conflict (or engaged in one) in almost thirty years. And that was against the rebel forces of a Third World nation aided by the US. If they were confronted,their performance would likely be average to poor. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/9 "2014-04-04T01:15:45Z")
One might wonder if Crimea was a test case. Russia figures it can just steal land with little repercussions. Why not grab more? Certainly those borders have been in flux over the centuries, as is true of much of Europe. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/10 "2014-04-04T01:20:48Z")
What are Ukraine’s armed forces like? Crimea seems to have been a cakewalk but what would a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine expect to face (if the political will were there to use Ukraine’s forces)? ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/11 "2014-04-04T02:27:17Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > One might wonder if Crimea was a test case. Russia figures it can just steal land with little repercussions. Why not grab more? [Here’s why not.](http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/12 "2014-04-04T04:06:37Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well firstly, as stated in your link, it comes after NATO announced it was halting cooperation with Russia. So it’s a predictable response. Secondly, it is pretty meaningless at this point. I don’t see halting cooperation as equating to withdrawing an ambassador. To me, it seems an escalation (and kind of a nitpicky point to be honest). YMMV of course. I’m curious why it’s meaningless, unless ambassador to NATO is meaningless (again, I have no idea what that even is or how meaningful a position it is…certainly it’s not on par with a regular ambassador I imagine). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/13 "2014-04-04T04:18:11Z")
I think it’s meaningless in that they’re probably not having particularly useful conversation with the Russian ambassador to NATO atm and there’s a bunch of other channels to go through when they want to make diplomatic discussions. And when you publicly announce you aren’t going to cooperate then why the hell would you expect the Russian ambassador to hang around? And technically they used the code phrase “recalled for consultation”, which means they haven’t declared that they are out for ever. So yes, MMV ---
**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/14 "2014-04-04T06:29:55Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I’m curious why it’s meaningless, unless ambassador to NATO is meaningless… NATO itself is meaningless, as of the 21st century. ---
**Author:** ![Batistuta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/58956e/32.png) [@Batistuta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batistuta)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/15 "2014-04-04T06:50:35Z")
> [@buddha\_david](#): > > NATO itself is meaningless, as of the 21st century. No. I’m pretty sure that Estonia and Latvia would be MUCH more worried right now if they weren’t in NATO. And it’s hardly surprising that non-aligned countries like Finland and Sweden are officially considering joining the organisation. I’m as critical of NATO as the next guy, but the current crisis has definitely given it the importance it lost during the past decade. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/16 "2014-04-04T13:42:16Z")
> [@buddha\_david](#): > > [Here’s why not.](http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) What’s your point? A link is not an argument. > [@buddha\_david](#): > > NATO itself is meaningless, as of the 21st century. No, it’s not. Wow, this debate stuff is easy. All you have to do is make an assertion! ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/17 "2014-04-04T14:29:25Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > What are Ukraine’s armed forces like? Crimea seems to have been a cakewalk but what would a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine expect to face (if the political will were there to use Ukraine’s forces)? All the news sources I’ve looked into say that beside the numerical disadvantage Ukraine’s military has had issues similar to Russia’s when it comes to manning, paying and keeping up to date. Russia did have the advantage of starting with most of the former Soviet military so they could afford to cull out a lot of their rusty “fat” and end up with a leaner force that may not be up to a sustained major-power land war but can do a lot of damage against an inferior foe if it’s a limited operation or a punitive strike (and the Chechens or someone like that don’t open a second front). I suppose even more important would be, to what extent Ukraine’s organizational command must have suffered after the government upheavals, and still contain Russian sympathizers: witness how their Crimean fleet’s commanding admiral defected. Also, remember that on their left flank they’ve got Russian [del]loyal vassal[/del] close ally Belarus who may not mind if Russians “absentmindedly” take the shortcut to Kiev through her territory and airspace. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/18 "2014-04-04T15:17:09Z")
You know, if this was an EU style of game, I’d press forward and take all of the Ukraine east of the Dnieper river. That would let Russia link eastern Ukraine into Belarus, gives a second secure passage to Crimea and puts Kiev effectively within range of artillery if you really wanted to make a point. That would likely put the kibosh on Ukrainian membership in NATO and I could see them adopt the same political association with Russia Finland use to have. Both of which Russia would like to see. ---
**Author:** ![Wakinyan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wakinyan/32/352_2.png) [@Wakinyan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wakinyan)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2014, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/19 "2014-04-04T15:52:35Z")
Perhaps it’s because I’m European and most posters in this thread are American, I don’t know, but there are a lot of strange statements in this thread, IMHO. > [@nevadaexile](#): > > /…/The current Ukrainian government … is showing itself to weak and ineffective right now. In what way is the Ukraine goverment showing itself weak? What options do they have? War with Russia? That’s not “strong”, it’s suicide, and the goverment of a country has responsibilities towards it people. In my opinion the goverment of the Ukraine has been very rational and have done what they could have done so far. > [@nevadaexile](#): > > Frankly the Russian military isn’t even impressive on paper /…/ Compared to what? Ukraine? Poland? Lituania? – What in god’s name are you blathering about? > [@buddha\_david](#): > > [Here’s why not.](http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) So you think that Russia would not follow its own doctrine of protecting Russians in Ukraine, if it came to that, because the US may launch nuclear weapons? – How is that suggestion in any way connected to the real world? > [@buddha\_david](#): > > NATO itself is meaningless, as of the 21st century. Nato is very, very far from meaningless. Nato is today of extreme importance in Europe “as of the 21 century”. > [@Batistuta](#): > > … non-aligned countries like Finland and Sweden are officially considering joining the organisation. … Sweden is not officially considering joining Nato. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2014, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281/20 "2014-04-05T01:03:47Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > You know, if this was an EU style of game, I’d press forward and take all of the Ukraine east of the Dnieper river. That would let Russia link eastern Ukraine into Belarus, gives a second secure passage to Crimea and puts Kiev effectively within range of artillery if you really wanted to make a point. I assume you mean _Europa Universalis_? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-russia-invade-the-ukraine/685281.md?page=2)