Saddam is history for all the above reasons, but the primary one is that under Islamic law and that culture’s conventions, it is absolutely essential that he be killed.
And in this case, I don’t think that’s a bad thing. And I’m generally opposed to the death penalty. But in this case, I think the man is not only evil enough, but his death will close a chapter in Iraq’s history and make it more likely that they will be able to move forward. He’s not going to be a martyr - the guys that ‘love’ him are basically part of an extended crime family that personally benefited from an enslaved Iraq. If Saddam is killed, all it means to them is that the guy at the top of the heap is gone. Perhaps that will help them realize that they aren’t going to get to stay on top any more.
Consider the execution of Nicolai Chaucescu. Was it good for the country? I thought it was cathartic and helped them get on with starting anew. The execution of Saddam might do the same.
Well then, by those lights one might propose executing every President of the U.S. and Prime Minister of Canada the moment they leave office. Hussein’s execution will not deter the Ba’athists from wanting to regain power in Iraq. He will simply become another loser in the power struggle. He is already no longer at the top of the heap. He has been replaced by whoever is leading the Ba’athist insurgents. He will be executed; I have no doubt. At least he will get a semblance of a trial, unlike Ceausescu - seized, tried, convicted, and executed by a kangaroo court.
When the Iraqi puppet government does decide to judicially murder him, he will not be the only one to go.
I will predict now quite clearly that in the month after he is hanged, the number of deaths of US military personnel will multiply by several times over the previous monthly average.
So anyone feeling good about the death of Saddam will need to mourn the extra 40-120 US deaths that will be caused by this.
History says that he’ll be executed. When you install a new regime by conquest or coup, you generally kill the leaders of the old regime. It’s the surest way to keep them from retaking power down the line.
I don’t see that at all. It’s conceivable, but I just don’t see his execution causing outrage among those who aren’t already part of the insurgency.
Tell you what. If, over the 30 days immediately following Saddam’s execution, the number of coalition military deaths is at least three times the average over the preceding 24 months, I’ll start a thread pointing out that you were right and I was wrong. If the number is less than double the monthly average, you start the thread. If it’s between two and three times the average, I guess we can both save some face.
So, what do you say? Shall we have some accountability in our predictions?
The insurgency isn’t random. Look at the upsurge in deaths during the installation of the puppet government Nov-Jan 2004-2005 when the insurgents tried to derail that installation. If monthly deaths are still running at an average of 40+ per month, I would predict that excess US deaths will be 40+ at minimum in the month following, and more probably 80-100.
I have my doubts we’ll see a huge upsurge in violence following Saddam’s execution (assuming the Iraqi’s wack him). As the Iraqi ‘puppet government’ ( :dubious: ) gets closer to ratifying a constitution and after that as general elections approach I think you will see an upsurge in violence…and we’ve certainly seen an escalation this summer…much of which I’m sure is due to the Iraqi’s moving in that direction. I doubt anyone will care greatly if Saddam is killed. I can’t see the insurgents making a big deal about it…even the Ba’athist factions. Certainly I don’t see the other factions of the insurgency giving two shits if Saddam lives or dies. Why should they?