# Will South Africa go the way of Zimbabwe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2011, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248 "2011-05-09T09:08:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2011, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/221 "2011-05-16T20:05:00Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Only after a fairly long period of decline proportionally and possibly even numerically. A similar trend it should be noted was seen in Russia’s population. I realise you’re young, but believe me, 15 years is \*not \*“a fairly long period”. There was [steady growth from 1900s](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_South_African#Historical_Population) - early 1990s, then a dip (post '94) as all the racists left (or turned impotent with shock), and a mostly steady growth since. Bearing in mind that the White community is probably of a demographic maturity that it should be experiencing the demographic shift, really. [QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Is there a fourth? [/QUOTE] “Amongst our problems are poverty, AIDS, crime and the element of surprise…wait, I’ll come in again” Brain drain \*is \*a problem, actually, but of course that ties into the others. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/222 "2011-05-23T21:11:55Z")
Hey now, democracy is an evolution. The South Africa apologists resist any attempt at criticism. Let’s face it: voting public is still a relatively ignorant one, but whatever the ANC can do to keep Whitey as the oppressor will work. The ANC has to change its tune. I’m [not](http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=143476) the [only](Is South Africa a democracy?) [one](http://www.newstime.co.za/SouthAfrica/ANC_Revamp_:_In_The_Land_Of_Democracy_Policy_Is_King/25857/) who [thinks](http://www.timeslive.co.za/opinion/columnists/article1080276.ece/A-beautiful-story-about-a-beautiful-place---but-theres-an-ugly-ending) so. > [@](#): > > Addressing ANC supporters at victory celebrations in Port Elizabeth, ANC regional chairman Nceba Faku said blacks who voted for “white parties” should be driven into the sea or to Europe: “Down with white political parties, down. Down with those who vote for white political parties, down.” > > He also incited the crowd to burn down the Sunday Times’ sister newspaper, which has been writing about his shady business dealings. > > “Down with The Herald, down, down. Burn The Herald. Fire to The Herald. … Go and burn The Herald. We will face a bullet with a bullet.” > > The crowd cheered. But hey, its the Whites who are [too sensitive](http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Whites-too-sensitive-about-race-20110523) about race issues. :dubious: > [@](#): > > Johannesburg - White people in South Africa should calm down because they are too sensitive about race issues. > > This, combined with their sensitivity about the land issue, could still lead the country into a crisis, said Gwede Mantashe, secretary general of the ANC. > > His comments came after the ANC repeatedly used race during the party’s recent local government election campaign. ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema led the race rhetoric. … > [@](#): > > The controversial youth leader made headlines again on Friday when he refused to enter into a public debate with DA national spokesperson Lindiwe Mazibuko, calling her the “tea girl” of the “madam”, referring to DA leader Helen Zille. > > This came after his comments that all white South Africans were criminals because they had stolen the land from black South Africans. > > "If we can agree on this firstly, then we can go on to deal with them,” he said during an election rally in Galeshewe near Kimberley. > > He said the DA wanted to bring back apartheid and that it was a party “just for the white people”. > > President Jacob Zuma was on the stage with Malema during the event and used race rhetoric more than once. On another occasion, he told coloured voters in Cape Town that “white companies” should get the blame for the struggles of subsistence fishermen. I predict more of the same rhetoric in light of recent DA gains. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/223 "2011-05-23T23:37:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Look, as I understand it, there are really only three things wrong with South Africa today: AIDS, poverty, and crime. The crime problem stems partly from the old police forces having been disbanded after Apartheid was abolished, so it took time to train up new forces; but mainly from post-Apartheid SA having become such an attractive destination for immigrants, many of them dodgy, from all over southern Africa. (Because SA is a poor country by Western standards but a rich one by African standards.) > > Is there a fourth? > > And what does any of this have to do with Zimbabwe? Similar history, similar demographics. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/224 "2011-05-23T23:45:32Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Similar history, similar demographics. Then why did Zimbabwe go one way and SA another? ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2011, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/225 "2011-05-23T23:48:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Then why did Zimbabwe go one way and SA another? 16 years after majority rule Zimbabwe was also doing ok. It was only in 2000 when Mugabe started taking over the farms that things really went downhill. Isn’t the point of this thread is that some in SA are agitating for similar reforms and it might also turn out badly? ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/226 "2011-05-24T06:40:19Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > 16 years after majority rule Zimbabwe was also doing ok. It was only in 2000 when Mugabe started taking over the farms that things really went downhill. Isn’t the point of this thread is that some in SA are agitating for similar reforms and it might also turn out badly? Well they had a civil war after independence in which thousands in the opposition party were massacred, then there was all of these protests by unions and such against the government (which were squashed) and then it just kept getting worse. I guess they were sanctioned around the time of land restitution. Wonder if that’ll happen with SA. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/227 "2011-05-24T10:30:20Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Similar history, similar demographics. “demographics?” :rolleyes: One wonders why political analysis even exists when one can just rely on racist divination. > [@Chen019](#): > > 16 years after majority rule Zimbabwe was also doing ok. It was only in 2000 when Mugabe started taking over the farms that things really went downhill. Isn’t the point of this thread is that some in SA are agitating for similar reforms and it might also turn out badly? 16 years, eh? And when “the rapture” doesn’t happen? What will the “Chicken Littles” tell us then? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/228 "2011-05-25T14:05:43Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > Hey now, democracy is an evolution. The South Africa apologists resist any attempt at criticism. Let’s face it: voting public is still a relatively ignorant one, but whatever the ANC can do to keep Whitey as the oppressor will work. Again, I must ask : have you ever visited post-Apartheid South Africa? And how would you feel if I concluded America was a lost cause because of Tea Party “2nd Amendment solution” rhetoric? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/229 "2011-05-25T15:37:12Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > I predict more of the same rhetoric in light of recent DA gains. It’s terrible how the ANC has oppressed the DA so much that it’s only managed to increase its national share of votes from 16.6% to 23.9%. [I guess the racist approach is working](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/malema-s-comments-may-have-cost-south-africa-s-anc-votes-mantashe-says.html). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/230 "2011-05-25T16:30:19Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Again, I must ask : have you ever visited post-Apartheid South Africa? I haven’t. How does it differ from how **CitizenPained** seems to think it is? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/231 "2011-05-25T16:53:19Z")
In fact, **MrDibble,** and if you would kindly take the trouble for the sake of fighting the ignorance of us foreigners, this might be a good time for you to give us all a short capsule history, from your on-the-ground perspective, of SA since 1994. Just a few paragraphs. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/232 "2011-05-25T19:20:33Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > In fact, **MrDibble,** and if you would kindly take the trouble for the sake of fighting the ignorance of us foreigners, this might be a good time for you to give us all a short capsule history, from your on-the-ground perspective, of SA since 1994. Just a few paragraphs. Let’s see: In most ways, change has been slow to come. Sure, in '94 we got the vote, and a instant black political elite. But the real change was in the lives of the less-fortunate. The ANC (and the DA where it is in charge) has actually been delivering on the promises of making sure everyone has access to housing, electricity and water. They’re not done yet, but 17 years is \*not \*a very long time to go from the truly dire situation people were in before liberation. We have a decent constitution, and it’s stood us in good stead with getting things like gay rights and access to HIV treatment. While the Mbeki government was a disappointment there, the pace of (free!) ARV rollout has increased again. The economy is doing better than it ever has done in my adult lifetime, at least. People keep on about the crime levels, but it really doesn’t impact me, as far as that goes. I think it’s a freer media sector that has increased coverage of the crime, but the situation in the townships hasn’t actually changed much from the 80s, as far as I can tell. A lot of the high murder rate is also related to a combination of gangs and drugs, and as such is largely confined to the townships and council estates (ghettos, to foreigners). The much-too-high incidence of rape, too. I don’t know what else to say, I can answer any specific questions. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/233 "2011-05-25T21:40:54Z")
Oh come on man, I agree that the crime thing is currently overplayed but the crime wave of the late 1990s early 200s was truly horrible and massively impacted the communities of black middle class in Joburg (as well as the whites, which is more usually underlined). You’re, pardon the expression, white washing that. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/234 "2011-05-25T21:46:01Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > Oh come on man, I agree that the crime thing is currently overplayed but the crime wave of the late 1990s early 200s was truly horrible and massively impacted the communities of black middle class in Joburg (as well as the whites, which is more usually underlined). You’re, pardon the expression, white washing that. Is it a thing of the past, now? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/235 "2011-05-26T06:15:42Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > Oh come on man, I agree that the crime thing is currently overplayed but the crime wave of the late 1990s early 200s was truly horrible and massively impacted the communities of black middle class in Joburg (as well as the whites, which is more usually underlined). You’re, pardon the expression, white washing that. Yes, there was a “crime wave”. I have yet to find any credible evidence that it was any different from the immediately-pre’94 situation. I put it down to change in reporting, mostly. I was\* in\* Joburg in the 90s. Never felt unsafe going in to the city on a Sat. night (by train! From the West Rand! Then walking from Park Station to the Doors, and beyond!). Me and 2 _mlungus_. I wouldn’t go into the townships then, though. Like the Wild West, Kagiso on a Saturday. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/236 "2011-05-26T08:35:49Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Is it a thing of the past, now? Not exactly, but getting better: Murder rate fell from 66.9 per 100,000 people in 1994–95 to 37.3 per 100,000 in 2008–09, for instance. Some rates show no sign of abating, though - rape and car hijackings, specifically. Although note that the infamous 1-in-4 figure is not, actually, a nationwide survey but quite regional (and not a peer review scientific survey, but an informal poll) - not that I, _of all people_, would dismiss the rape statistics, they’re horrific. But again, it’s situational, and generally restricted to really bad places, not a anywhere/everywhere phenomenon. Bear in mind, a lot of the rape and other violent crimes are committed by quite young offenders - partly, it’s another legacy of the way AIDS and apartheid have completely fucked SA over. Both were responsible for creating an entire generation coming from broken homes, and living in abject poverty. I’ve met some young gangsters who were so … wrong, in terms of empathic responses. The only other people I’ve met like that were some Nigerian ex-child soldiers. Just completely broken, violent, sociopathic people. But that’s not the ANC’s fault (for now). They’re dealing with the hand they’ve been dealt - not as best _they_ can, looks like, but they could be doing a \*lot \*worse. ---
**Author:** ![grimpixie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecb155/32.png) [@grimpixie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grimpixie)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/237 "2011-05-26T10:16:48Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > I was\* in\* Joburg in the 90s. Never felt unsafe going in to the city on a Sat. night (by train! From the West Rand! Then walking from Park Station to the Doors, and beyond!). Me and 2 _mlungus_. I wouldn’t go into the townships then, though. Like the Wild West, Kagiso on a Saturday. Our Nanny lives in Gugulethu and her brother lives in Khayelitsha, a little further out from the city. When we asked her recently about safety in the townships, she said that Gugulethu was perfectly safe, but Khayelitsha was much more dangerous, being “full of _tsotsis_”. Then she laughed and said that her brother would never come and visit her at her house because he thought that Gugulethu was not safe. Safety is largely about perception - I feel safe in areas that I know, and unsafe when I’m out of my comfort zone. Grim P.S. So I got interested, and looked up some stats - Khayelitsha is a little more dangerous in terms of murder and rape, but Nyanga which is geographically between the two is worse than either. [Source](http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/stats/CityReports/Documents/Crime%20in%20Cape%20Town%202001-2008C.pdf)(warning PDF) ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/238 "2011-05-26T11:45:22Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Yes, there was a “crime wave”. I have yet to find any credible evidence that it was any different from the immediately-pre’94 situation. I put it down to change in reporting, mostly. > > I was\* in\* Joburg in the 90s. Never felt unsafe going in to the city on a Sat. night (by train! From the West Rand! Then walking from Park Station to the Doors, and beyond!). Me and 2 _mlungus_. I wouldn’t go into the townships then, though. Like the Wild West, Kagiso on a Saturday. Well, I can just tell you that myself and my black African (SA and region, Botswana) colleagues experienced a lot of crime, a jump up from before, and the colleagues also had carjacking near misses. And we had drivers - locals - who were afraid to park out at night. That was no joke. But then perhaps you didn’t have the money of interest to be targeted. We did. Me in passage, that’s nothing to cry about. But for my black colleagues, they were bloody well scared and angry about Mbeki blowing off the situ. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/239 "2011-05-26T11:47:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Is it a thing of the past, now? While I disagree with Dibble on the past, I’d say it’s a lot better now. Vastly better. Nevertheless there is an overhang of fear in certain quarters (and here I am not thinking of white colleagues, but black middle class and the working class folks with us, drivers, etc). I think it is a disservice to minimize the ongoing issue relative to impact locally - although same time it’s not as bad as the horror stereotypes from the late 1990s. Downtown Joburg for example is coming back. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/240 "2011-05-26T11:50:47Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > But that’s not the ANC’s fault (for now). They’re dealing with the hand they’ve been dealt - not as best _they_ can, looks like, but they could be doing a \*lot \*worse. I disagree, it was the ANCs fault to the extent that for a long while (not now) - like on the AIDs front, a certain class of ANCers did not take the crime seriously enough. Nevertheless, I absolutely agree that they were dealt an enormously bad hand, and it was stunningly difficult to deal with that transition. Overall, it came out okay (is coming out okay?), but public crime situ was a dropped ball that could have been dealt with better, earlier - for the good of the black population in particular. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=13)