# Will South Africa go the way of Zimbabwe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2011, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248 "2011-05-09T09:08:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/302 "2011-06-06T21:09:47Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It will not apply to the next generation of South Africans, either. Improved mass education, etc. > > Or is this some more of your _Bell-Curve_-bullshit racial theorizing? Do you want to make a bet? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/303 "2011-06-06T21:16:25Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Do you want to make a bet? What, a bet that cannot be won or lost until 20 to 30 years from now? ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/304 "2011-06-06T21:17:52Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Do you want to make a bet? Will this bet run side to your previous prediction that SA will implode into lawlessness after about 16 years of democratic rule? You probably wouldn’t pay up anyway; you don’t seem to care about being dead wrong. ---
**Author:** ![ctnguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@ctnguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ctnguy)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/305 "2011-06-06T21:25:10Z")
> [@Mighty\_Mouse](#): > > I had an encounter with this just yesterday. We were at a local school’s International Fair (something like a miniature version of Epcot). I thought the lady at the Africa booth had a New Zealand accent, and I joked that she was at the wrong booth. She was extremely indignant, and said that she most certainly was not, she was as African as anyone born on the continent of Africa. My attempt to explain that I had misidentified her accent went nowhere. She was adamant that I had made a judement based on her race. > > So I guess there is some level of sensitivity around this issue among white South Africans. I don’t know if this is something that comes with them from South Africa or they are just annoyed at ignorant Yanks. Obviously that woman was particularly sensitive about it. I can say that in a couple of months in the US I had several people say things like “You can’t be from Africa! You’re not black!”, so I can understand how she might have got to be touchy if she’d heard that sort of thing a lot. I suspect your explanation might have annoyed her more, though. 😃 There are some South Africans who get annoyed when the accent is mistaken for Australian or New Zealand. (Similar to how some Canadians dislike being mistaken for American.) > [@](#): > > I once ticked off another one by mistakenly referring to the spelling/pronunciation of her name (Voerster = Foster) as a Dutch thing, rather than an Afrikaans thing. Yes, that’s also a common sensitive point. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/306 "2011-06-06T21:40:31Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > Will this bet run side to your previous prediction that SA will implode into lawlessness after about 16 years of democratic rule? > > You probably wouldn’t pay up anyway; you don’t seem to care about being dead wrong. Err, you seem to be imagining things. I never made such a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/307 "2011-06-06T21:44:47Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Err, you seem to be imagining things. I never made such a prediction. Post 225 > [@Chen019](#): > > 16 years after majority rule Zimbabwe was also doing ok. It was only in 2000 when Mugabe started taking over the farms that things really went downhill. Isn’t the point of this thread is that some in SA are agitating for similar reforms and it might also turn out badly? ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/308 "2011-06-06T21:48:54Z")
Did you read what I said? I was saying that _if_ SA adopted the same land reform policies as Zimabwe it might also end badly. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/309 "2011-06-06T21:53:29Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Did you read what I said? I was saying that _if_ SA adopted the same land reform policies as Zimabwe it might also end badly. End badly = Zimbabwe = lawlessness. No? ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/310 "2011-06-06T21:56:29Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > End badly = Zimbabwe = lawlessness. No? Yes, _if_ they follow their land reforms. You get the distinction with simply saying they will right? I’m saying that is what would likely happen if they follow that path. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/311 "2011-06-06T22:03:13Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Yes, _if_ they follow their land reforms. You get the distinction with simply saying they will right? I’m saying that is what would likely happen if they follow that path. Then I shall amend my post: "Will this bet run side to your previous prediction that SA will implode into lawlessness _after engaging in lawful land reform_? You probably wouldn’t pay up anyway; you don’t seem to care about being dead wrong." ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/312 "2011-06-06T22:09:29Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > Then I shall amend my post: > > "Will this bet run side to your previous prediction that SA will implode into lawlessness _after engaging in lawful land reform_? > > You probably wouldn’t pay up anyway; you don’t seem to care about being dead wrong." If you mean transferring ownership & the running of the farms from europeans to blacks, as happened in Zimabwe, then I would certainly take that bet. Based on the experience so far it hasn’t worked, but I’m happy to take your money 😛 > **[Failure of South African land reform](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-nov-21-la-fg-south-africa-farms-20101121-story.html)** > > Failure of South African land reform ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/313 "2011-06-06T22:13:42Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > If you mean transferring ownership & the running of the farms from europeans to blacks, as happened in Zimabwe, then I would certainly take that bet. Based on the experience so far it hasn’t worked, but I’m happy to take your money 😛 > > [Failure of South African land reform](http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/21/world/la-fg-south-africa-farms-20101121) SA is engaging in lawful land reformations and has not descended into chaos. You have already lost. Where’s MY money. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/314 "2011-06-06T22:35:48Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > SA is engaging in lawful land reformations and has not descended into chaos. You have already lost. Where’s MY money. Did you read the article above? It’s been a failure so far. My comment was that if it pursued the Zimabwe approach it would end badly and I stand by that. So far, it hasn’t shifted ownerhship on anything like that scale. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/315 "2011-06-06T22:57:10Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > Did you read the article above? It’s been a failure so far. My comment was that if it pursued the Zimabwe approach it would end badly and I stand by that. So far, it hasn’t shifted ownerhship on anything like that scale. You call it a failure but somehow SA still hasn’t fallen like Zimbabwe. They still hold fair and free elections, their press is still free, political opponents are not arrested on phony charges, SA still holds the confidence of international lenders like the IMF and World Bank, they are not under any political/economical sanctions, their judicial system functions free and separately from the whims of the ANC (just ask Zuma). Quite frankly this will **never** happen to SA; any land reform that they choose to engage in will be done in the interest of fairness and in respect to the rule of law. So where’s the cash you’re putting up? ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/316 "2011-06-06T23:52:11Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > You call it a failure but somehow SA still hasn’t fallen like Zimbabwe. They still hold fair and free elections, their press is still free, political opponents are not arrested on phony charges, SA still holds the confidence of international lenders like the IMF and World Bank, they are not under any political/economical sanctions, their judicial system functions free and separately from the whims of the ANC (just ask Zuma). > > Quite frankly this will **never** happen to SA; any land reform that they choose to engage in will be done in the interest of fairness and in respect to the rule of law. So where’s the cash you’re putting up? I said the land reforms to date, according to the article, have been a failure. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/317 "2011-06-06T23:58:05Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > I don’t know, is it? You seem to know so much about South Africa. I’m sure you can dig up cites where Mrs Sisulu and Mandela have expressed complete disappointment in the results of their efforts :rolleyes: > > And I know you were just copy-&-pasting, but next time edit your link title. \*You \*don’t get to call her MaSisulu :mad: Why would I edit someone else’s journalism? South Africa is a mess. Maybe it’s a _successful mess_ by your standards, but it’s a mess. It doesn’t mean that South Africa will always be this way, but you seem hellbent on being an apologist. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/318 "2011-06-06T23:59:35Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > You call it a failure but somehow SA still hasn’t fallen like Zimbabwe. They still hold fair and free elections, their press is still free, political opponents are not arrested on phony charges, SA still holds the confidence of international lenders like the IMF and World Bank, they are not under any political/economical sanctions, their judicial system functions free and separately from the whims of the ANC (just ask Zuma). > > Quite frankly this will **never** happen to SA; any land reform that they choose to engage in will be done in the interest of fairness and in respect to the rule of law. So where’s the cash you’re putting up? I thought that the current land reform was giving way to land _redistribution_? In America, we are used to affirmative action, but South Africa applies straight quotas. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/319 "2011-06-07T00:35:50Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > South Africa is a mess. Maybe it’s a _successful mess_ by your standards, but it’s a mess. What matters is that SA is a **highly** successful mess (1) by African standards and (2) by Apartheid-era standards. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/320 "2011-06-07T00:37:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What matters is that SA is a **highly** successful mess (1) by African standards and (2) by Apartheid-era standards. Africans need to raise their standards. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2011, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/321 "2011-06-07T02:50:54Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > Africans need to raise their standards. [shrug] Druther live in SA than Israel. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=17)