# Will South Africa go the way of Zimbabwe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2011, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248 "2011-05-09T09:08:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/21 "2011-05-09T17:15:10Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Like I said, in this case the bias doesn’t hurt the data I already produced, anyway. I just fucking hate the CIA. Strong emotions often cause people to believe things that are not true, and to disbelieve things that are true. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/22 "2011-05-09T17:17:36Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Sure. Selective choosing of databases would \*never \*introduce any bias into the dataset:rolleyes: Unless there is some reason to accuse them of selective use of databases (the online Encylo gives the sourcing, there is zero upside for them to play with anything), this is merely a sad and pitiful rejoinder. > [@](#): > > I’m not “railing”, I just like getting my digs into the murderous shitfuckers when opportunity presents. Your railing on against the CIA encyclo is frankly unhinged and hasn’t anything to do with the actual data presented. It’s a useful site for quick data, although pretty superficial. Whatever ones feelings about the American intelligence services - I personally don’t share yours - the website hasn’t a any particular tie or connection to their intelligence operations and I very much doubt they give a flying fuck if you click or not. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/23 "2011-05-09T17:21:26Z")
> [@Saffer](#): > > On reflection, I concede I have given off a slightly racist odour. > > I think it is the frustration/anger I feel toward people like JM manifests itself in many ways, looking for an outlet. I shall try to keep this in mind. Anyway, moving on from economic data and either pointless rage against or ostentatious silence on rebuttal, I think this second is worth the thread, given the overall context. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/24 "2011-05-09T18:01:17Z")
> [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](#): > > Strong emotions often cause people to believe things that are not true, and to disbelieve things that are true. So what, exactly, is it that isn’t true? That SA’s economy is doing stonkloads better now than before democracy, or that the CIA are murderous bastards? > [@wmfellows](#): > > Unless there is some reason to accuse them of selective use of databases (the online Encylo gives the sourcing, there is zero upside for them to play with anything), this is merely a sad and pitiful rejoinder. :rolleyes:Gotta love the editorial comment. Look, like I said, the original post was poorly-worded. I _don’t_ doubt the provenance of the facts in the Factbook any more than I would that of Wiki or World Bank. But I wouldn’t pretend either of those are free of bias, either. > [@](#): > > Whatever ones feelings about the American intelligence services - I personally don’t share yours Well, then you’re the misguided one, I think. The CIA’s record of assassination and interference is open knowledge. > [@](#): > > I very much doubt they give a flying fuck if you click or not. Of course they don’t. But\* I\* do. ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/25 "2011-05-09T20:22:11Z")
> [@Saffer](#): > > I do not believe for one second that any race is inferior to any other. > I do believe that apratheid was disgusting and evil. > I am enclined to believe that if it SA was free much earlier on, it could be considered “1st world” by now. I think I made these points in the thread MrDibble linked to. If it was free much earlier on wouldn’t it simply be like most African countries? You seem to be ignoring the research of people like [Greg Clark](http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/07/social-darwinism-21st-century-edition.html). The conditions that give rise to first world economies are pretty unusual. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/26 "2011-05-09T20:58:47Z")
I’m unaware that the CIA is the subject of this thread, so the supposed murderousness of CIA, KGB, DGSE, etc. really is besides the point. The data was perfectly good, but not comparable. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/27 "2011-05-09T21:10:47Z")
> [@Markxxx](#): > > Africans also have the problem they want new technology but they also want their old heritage. The two things are not always compatible. You can’t live in huts, worship your tribal ancestors and have Internet, TV, modern medicine. OK sure you CAN have this, but if you try to do it, you’re slammed on by both sides. One side saying you’re not being true, or even insulting to old ways; while the other side is screaming it’s time to come into the 21st century and abandon the old ways. The nicest thing that I can say here is that you simply have no idea what you are talking about. I don’t know anyone who prefers a hut over a nice concrete house, but there is nothing about a hut’s electrical outlet that prevents one from plugging in a TV. People all over Africa gladly tune in to Nigerian soap operas, telenovelas, Bollywood films and Caribbean MTV. When it is relavent to their lives, people figure out how to use the internet pretty quickly. Desperately poor people are most interested in making money, and from 419-scams to mail-order brides, the net cafes are booming. Nobody has any problem with taking antibiotics when they are sick. People are a bit resistant to see their local doctors at time, but that usually because the “doctors” have inadequate training and prescribe unreliable knock-off Chinese drugs that can do some real harm- people recognize the traditional healer might not do much, but at least he won’t hurt them. To give an obvious example, it turns out that cell phones were very useful to Africans, and they had no problem adopting them. Very few parts of the continent practice traditional religion primarily, and most people are just plain Christian or Muslim. Those that do practice traditional religions are not usually notably backwards- the vice-principal of my high school worshipped his ancestor’s skulls, and he was one of the most progressive and modern people i knew. You gotta remember that these “exotic” spear dances (or whatever) are exactly the same as the square dancing your grandma made you learn in Junior High. A “bizarre ancestor worship ceremony” is exactly the same as an old fashioned tent revival. My Cameroonian friend’s family photo albums looked straight our of National Geographic, but to them, they are just photos of grandma, grandpa and old aunt Libby. That hut? It’s cozy and nostalgic like an old farmhouse or a log cabin. Modernity can exist without having to look exactly like American culture (as surely we’ve realized from East Asia.) Nostalgia is present in every culture- from country kitsch to Africans nostalgic about Grandma’s hut. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/28 "2011-05-09T21:25:04Z")
FWIW, I’m heading to South Africa right now to work with a rural community outside of Kimberley on an education project. The place I’m heading happens to be involved in a complicated and protracted dispute about diamonds, which they expect to win. It will be interesting to be right in the middle of this. From what I understand (which is limited) South Africa is still very…_new_…at figuring out how to be a modern and united country. The scale of inequality is staggering. I was sharply corrected when I asked a question about childhood malnourishment- “undernourishment” is the problem in the community where I wil be working. And yet I was cheerfully informed that there is a KFC down the street from the village. Inequalities like this do not co-exist easily or change smoothly. The guy sounds like a young rabble rouser, and there are going to be people attracted to that sort of rhetoric. But i don’t think it represents a large movement. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/29 "2011-05-09T21:44:14Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > If it was free much earlier on wouldn’t it simply be like most African countries? You seem to be ignoring the research of people like [Greg Clark](http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/07/social-darwinism-21st-century-edition.html). The conditions that give rise to first world economies are pretty unusual. That sounds like it would be interesting to read, but this is what I got when I clicked on it: Not Found The requested URL /sdmb/-1 was not found on this server. Do you have another link? ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/30 "2011-05-09T22:00:56Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > If it was free much earlier on wouldn’t it simply be like most African countries? You seem to be ignoring the research of people like [Greg Clark](http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/07/social-darwinism-21st-century-edition.html). The conditions that give rise to first world economies are pretty unusual. "Groups that became agriculturalists relatively recently, or not at all, are slow to master important new social and technical developments… "[Jared] Diamond asserts [in Guns, Germs, and Steel] that such differences were entirely cultural, that is to say, learned - but if this were so, populations that missed out on these experiences could in principle catch up rapidly. After all, culture is learned anew every generation… "economists have shown that the age of the transition to agriculture appears to have a strong influence on a country’s economic development in recent decades, even after controlling for many other factors… “If the root causes of these differences are biological changes affecting cognitive and personality traits, changes that are the product of natural selection acting over millennia, conventional solutions to the problem of slow modernization among people with shallow experiences of farming are highly problematic.” - Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending, from The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, Chapter 4, “Consequences of Agriculture,” pages 118-122. > **[Home - The 10k Year Explosion](https://the10000yearexplosion.com/)** ---
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/31 "2011-05-09T22:10:23Z")
> [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](#): > > That sounds like it would be interesting to read, but this is what I got when I clicked on it: Not Found > The requested URL /sdmb/-1 was not found on this server. > > Do you have another link? The link was to this [paper](http://campus.usal.es/~revistas/Artefactos/pdfs/5465.pdf) by Greg Clark that Steve Hsu posted about. It summarizes a lot of his work associated with [‘A Farewell to Alms’](http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/a_farewell_to_alms.html). > [@](#): > > As the progeny of the rich pervaded all levels of society, Dr. Clark considered, the behaviors that made for wealth could have spread with them. He has documented that several aspects of what might now be called middle-class values changed significantly from the days of hunter gatherer societies to 1800. Work hours increased, literacy and numeracy rose, and the level of interpersonal violence dropped. > > Another significant change in behavior, Dr. Clark argues, was an increase in people’s preference for saving over instant consumption, which he sees reflected in the steady decline in interest rates from 1200 to 1800. > > “Thrift, prudence, negotiation and hard work were becoming values for communities that previously had been spendthrift, impulsive, violent and leisure loving,” Dr. Clark writes. > > Around 1790, a steady upward trend in production efficiency first emerges in the English economy. It was this significant acceleration in the rate of productivity growth that at last made possible England’s escape from the Malthusian trap and the emergence of the Industrial Revolution. > > In the rest of Europe and East Asia, populations had also long been shaped by the Malthusian trap of their stable agrarian economies. Their workforces easily absorbed the new production technologies that appeared first in England. [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/07/science/07indu.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5070&en=dbd529f0cc3c0cf2&ex=1187582400](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/07/science/07indu.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5070&en=dbd529f0cc3c0cf2&ex=1187582400) ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/32 "2011-05-09T22:19:39Z")
To answer the OP, I think not. SA has a lot going for it, in spite of the problems, and I think that people of all races probably recognize that in order to capitalize on their strengths, they must do so in a manner which indicates stability to world markets, and they can look to Zimbabwe as a fine example of what not to do. The devil is in the details, though, and it’s quite a devil, indeed, from what I understand. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/33 "2011-05-09T22:30:07Z")
Probably not. ---
**Author:** ![New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/New_Deal_Democrat)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/34 "2011-05-09T22:46:38Z")
> [@Chen019](#): > > The link was to this [paper](http://campus.usal.es/~revistas/Artefactos/pdfs/5465.pdf) by Greg Clark that Steve Hsu posted about. It summarizes a lot of his work associated with [‘A Farewell to Alms’](http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/a_farewell_to_alms.html). > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/07/science/07indu.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5070&en=dbd529f0cc3c0cf2&ex=1187582400](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/07/science/07indu.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5070&en=dbd529f0cc3c0cf2&ex=1187582400) This is an interesting article, but I disagree with this part: “It is puzzling that the Industrial Revolution did not occur first in the much larger populations of China or Japan. Dr. Clark has found data showing that their richer classes, the Samurai in Japan and the Qing dynasty in China, were surprisingly unfertile and so would have failed to generate the downward social mobility that spread production-oriented values in England.” For two thousand years the imperial exam system in China enabled intelligent peasant boys to enter the Scholar Gentry. As members of the Scholar Gentry they had incomes equal to those of merchants, and far more prestige. They were expected to have several wives, and many children. They were more prolific than European aristocrats who lived during the same time, and there was easier mobility for talent into the Scholar Gentry than into the European nobility. This explains why Chinese, and those of Chinese descent have higher average IQs than Caucasians everywhere in the world that they live. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/35 "2011-05-09T23:01:18Z")
For the sake of a bloody fucking Christ can we not make yet another fucking piece of crap pseudo-science African IQ thread? ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/36 "2011-05-09T23:06:04Z")
[QUOTE=evensven] Nobody has any problem with taking antibiotics when they are sick. People are a bit resistant to see their local doctors at time, but that usually because the “doctors” have inadequate training and prescribe unreliable knock-off Chinese drugs that can do some real harm- people recognize the traditional healer might not do much, but at least he won’t hurt them.]… Modernity can exist without having to look exactly like American culture (as surely we’ve realized from East Asia.) Nostalgia is present in every culture- from country kitsch to Africans nostalgic about Grandma’s hut. [/QUOTE] Technology is not modernity as such. And I dispute your characterisation regarding Drs. I have seen people in the French zone, Abidjan, with perfectly fine access to Drs prefer ‘traditional’ (however tenuous the tie to any actual historical traditions) for reasons entirely unrelated to supposed knock-off Chinese drugs. There is, I think, a valid point in the issue of maladapted cultural norms, that has roots back into the near-agrarian, clan and tribe past. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/37 "2011-05-10T00:02:02Z")
Unlike Zimbabwe, South Africa is a fully functional democracy with an open press and a free opposition; quite frankly, I don’t see those things disappearing any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/38 "2011-05-10T00:13:53Z")
> [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](#): > > “If the root causes of these differences are biological changes affecting cognitive and personality traits, changes that are the product of natural selection acting over millennia, conventional solutions to the problem of slow modernization among people with shallow experiences of farming are highly problematic.” > > - Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending, from The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, Chapter 4, “Consequences of Agriculture,” pages 118-122. > [@Chen019](#): > > The link was to this [paper](http://campus.usal.es/~revistas/Artefactos/pdfs/5465.pdf) by Greg Clark that Steve Hsu posted about. It summarizes a lot of his work associated with [‘A Farewell to Alms’](http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/a_farewell_to_alms.html). > [@New\_Deal\_Democrat](#): > > This explains why Chinese, and those of Chinese descent have higher average IQs than Caucasians everywhere in the world that they live. This thread is about South Africa and Zimbabwe, not your opinions of the relative IQs of different groups of people. Your posts about race and IQ aren’t relevant to this discussion. I also point out that you’re both venturing into one-trick pony territory here. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/39 "2011-05-10T00:17:36Z")
I’m going to speculate that most South Africans are not going to be interested in turning the clock back twenty years and re-opening a hugely devise issue that’s been settled. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248/40 "2011-05-10T00:20:21Z")
I still don’t understand the question. The practice of taking land back from white men and giving them to black South Africans has been going on for years. If you want to talk about increased threat and violence, I think that’s totally valid. But I remember this coming up years ago back when Mbeki was President. Or maybe I’m wrong. Was it just a bunch of talk that amounted to nothing? If so, it isn’t surprising. Land…appropriations…er…redistribution…is kind of sketch when you’re talking about people who have been there since 1994 and (presumably) many who have been there much longer. My cousin (related by marriage) is from South Africa (Johannesburg) and she left around 1999. Her parents were still there as of a few years ago. I don’t talk to her much now, but I do remember her talking about this issue. “Land reform” just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. (You want to take back land from foreigners, whatever. Compensate and risk trade. But your own citizens? Ouch.) \*edit: I had seen this issue years ago as something that was ‘okayed’ by the government though not officially a ‘policy’ in the books. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-south-africa-go-the-way-of-zimbabwe/581248.md?page=3)