# Will Taiwan declare independence? Will China invade? Will (should) we intervene? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 21, 2005, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204 "2005-02-21T17:28:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/21 "2005-02-23T07:43:44Z")
I agree with Hemlock’s link that China is capable of putting troops in Taiwan. But I don’t think the occupation would succeed. It would be roughly the same scenario as Korea was - most of the country might be overrun but American ready troops (probably marines and airborne) would go in within a few days and a beachhead would be held. From that point on it would a contest between which side could supply its troops better and overwhelming American naval superiority would eventually win. It would probably be a long war with a lot of casualties but I don’t think it would go nuclear - neither side would feel its national survival was threatened. And I have no doubts the United States would fight - Taiwan is as central to America’s position in the world as Kuwait was. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/22 "2005-02-23T08:03:14Z")
At least for the next ten years, China has zero hope of ever taking the US on in a military struggle, especially one that would involve send many many ships of troops and equipment over the sea to face a hostile army. Look: the US has subs that can litterally sink entire modern fleets singlehandedly without any fear of counterattack. We can see any assault, airborne or ship-based, almost instantly. China has no chance. We own the seas, we own the skies. Period. If China tries anything, we can quickly issue this warning: “Hi: we won’t be attacking the mainland or attacking your cities or anything that might set up a nuclear confrontation. But please consider any invaders or equipment you send to Taiwan to be effectively lost to you forever. Thank you!” China right now is the most nightmarish regime on the planet: it’s a huge and increasingly wealthy modern state pouring money into its military that has still managed to keep it’s populace docile under totalitarian rule and convince many of them that they should like it. It’s the last Evil Empire of true consequence. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/23 "2005-02-23T13:08:14Z")
as always in these threads, let me point out it is highly likely taiwan has the bomb. certainly tsiwan has the brains, technology and most likely raw material. of course it is a MAD strategy as taiwan would be able to blast a few cities before becoming a radioactive waste cloud. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/24 "2005-02-23T14:05:11Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > So was “We do not torture prisoners,” once upon a time… Yes because that relates to Taiwan on so many levels :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/25 "2005-02-23T17:15:52Z")
> [@So was "We do not torture prisoners](#): > > So was “We do not torture prisoners,” once upon a time… What this has to do with Taiwan is beyond me, but I’ll bite since the thread is winding down and as usual you have nothing substantial to say about the actual OP but merely like to do these drive by hijacks. WHEN did the US (or anyone else) say they would never ‘torture’ prisoners? Depending on how you define ‘torture’ of course we never did…nor has anyone else. Interestingly enough I was up at 4 am last night with a baby related problem and on the History Channel they were giving the history of ‘torture’. They estimated that something like 80-90% of countries in the world today used ‘torture’ defined as beating, inflicting pain or other forms of discomfort, sleep depravation, etc when interrigating prisoners. Something like 70% of the nations of the world (again their estimate) will use the more brutal forms of ‘torture’ including perminent disfigurement, sexually oriented torture, humilation torture (including forced consumming of human waste) and sever beatings. You should see what REAL torture is like sometime, especially when its systematically inflicted instead of random or isolated incidents…it was pretty sickening. You would be surprised at some of the nations on the list of countries that use the more extreme forms of torture regularly…and certain nations that weren’t on the list of the more extremem forms of torture. Not that you’d believe of course…you already know. 🙂 Since I figure I know what you are getting at with this, I’ll just point out (again) that the people who used whats considered ‘extreme’ forms of torture in the form of sexual and humilation type tortures in Iraq were in violation of the law (both our military and civilian laws) and are being punished for what they did. Its not US policy to use such methods (I’m sure you don’t believe this)…the methods we DO use (sleep depravation and such) fall within the letter of the treaties we’ve signed. When folks go outside of that and are caught they are tried and if found guilty they are punished. We aren’t perfect about it, but then again, no one else is either…we DO however try, which you can’t say about every country out there. -XT ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/26 "2005-02-23T18:14:03Z")
> [@Hemlock](#): > > [Here’s](http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html) a theoretical way China could take Taiwan. This scenario has been discussed on the boards before. Essentially it 1. Ignores the fact that US spy satellites would pick up any large-scale mobilization 2. fails to deal with the large numbers of planes trying to make airdrops that would be shot down 3. says that China has “special forces,” as if they were the equvalent of SEALs or SAS; they don’t. 4. posits that these forces won’t need resupply and reinforcement, which is utterly absurd, and 5. Suggests that the Taiwanese populace, having struggled for a generation to wrest democracy from one group of oppressors from the mainland, will just placidly welcome their new overlords. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/27 "2005-02-23T18:18:08Z")
Also from the article: > [@](#): > > Taiwan’s military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification. With that “hence,” the writer reveals himself to be ignorant. > [@](#): > > Many could use taxis to move about the city unnoticed. Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales, supplying critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night; death is the ultimate aphrodisiac. And with that, a bad novelist. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/28 "2005-02-23T18:46:54Z")
“With that “hence,” the writer reveals himself to be ignorant.” No kidding. Yes, the KMT is pro-unification… but only from the perspective of Taiwan conquering China! (well, I doubt they are that silly anymore, and haven’t been for decades, but the KMT is not going to welcome mainland troops either). ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/29 "2005-02-23T19:40:22Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > So was “We do not torture prisoners,” once upon a time… > [@xtisme](#): > > What this has to do with Taiwan is beyond me Once again, I find I must spell everything out for the folks who can’t connect 1 to 2 to 3… Saying “Its always been the US’s policy (i.e. it predates the dreaded Bush) to defend Taiwan if its attacked” (as you did earlier) means diddly/squat. It has already been demonstrated that the folks currently in the White House have no qualms about abandoning prior policies, treaties, and promises when it does not suit their purposes to do so. The notion that this Administration feels any obligation to stand by Taiwan in case the shooting begins is as quaintly antiquated as the notion that the US would never support torture by appointing a known torture advocate as attorney general, or that the US would abide by its earlier signing of the ABM treaty, or… ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/30 "2005-02-23T21:31:41Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > It has already been demonstrated that the folks currently in the White House have no qualms about abandoning prior policies, treaties, and promises when it does not suit their purposes to do so. Except that your claim was that the Military would, and should, try to stop Bush if he _did_ try to follow longstanding policy. If you have a better policy than that which has been promoted by every president since Carter, let’s hear it. But as usual, your desire to blame everything on Bush is preventing you from thinking clearly. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/31 "2005-02-23T21:41:16Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Except that your claim was that the Military would, and should, try to stop Bush if he _did_ try to follow longstanding policy. I didn’t claim the military would or should do anything. > [@furt](#): > > If you have a better policy than that which has been promoted by every president since Carter, let’s hear it. My answer involves a time machine. 😉 And besides, when did we pass the rule that says, “Thou shalt not criticize without presenting an alternative”? Heaven knows the GOP didn’t do anything half as constructive during Clinton’s terms in office. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/32 "2005-02-23T22:15:40Z")
Mea culpa; I was thinking of \*\*rfgdxm \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/33 "2005-02-23T22:41:40Z")
Best bet for Taiwan (and probably their main plan) is to just wait until communism collapses in China, as it so richly deserves to do. I wonder if they produce any television broadcasting aimed at the mainland showing how happy and prosperous they are? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/34 "2005-02-23T23:30:24Z")
> [@Bryan Ekers](#): > > Best bet for Taiwan (and probably their main plan) is to just wait until communism collapses in China, as it so richly deserves to do. See this thread from last July: “Is the Chinese government on its last legs?” – [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=267456](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=267456) (The consensus was, no.) ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2005, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/35 "2005-02-23T23:57:15Z")
> [@Bryan Ekers](#): > > I wonder if they produce any television broadcasting aimed at the mainland showing how happy and prosperous they are? China is not North Korea. The people are well aware that Taiwan is quite prosperous. It’s part of why they want it back. China has not been really Communist for two decades; they are well into the transition to a market economy. But while I don’t see them collapsing, they could have some serious wobbles at some point in the next 50 years. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2005, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/36 "2005-02-24T00:10:48Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > Saying “Its always been the US’s policy (i.e. it predates the dreaded Bush) to defend Taiwan if its attacked” (as you did earlier) means diddly/squat. It has already been demonstrated that the folks currently in the White House have no qualms about abandoning prior policies, treaties, and promises when it does not suit their purposes to do so. Do you have any actual evidence that Bush wouldn’t honor our treaties towards Taiwan in the (highly unlikely) event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, or are you, as usual, talking out your nether orifice? Because I’ve seen zero indications that Bush et al wouldn’t honor our treaties to Taiwan…in fact, I thought the neocons were supposedly quite taken with the concept of a free and democratic and SOVEREIGN Taiwan…no? I doubt China will collapse…I think they are too smart for that. Once the old guard finally dies out completely I think the whole communist thing will just fade away in everything but name…and eventually even that will go. If China ever REALLY throws out the baby with the bath water and gets rid of the last vestiges of communism I think Taiwan WOULD consider coming back into the fold. -XT ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2005, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/37 "2005-02-24T01:25:53Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Do you have any actual evidence that Bush wouldn’t honor our treaties towards Taiwan in the (highly unlikely) event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, or are you, as usual, talking out your nether orifice? I let this administration’s track record for honoring prior treaties and policies be my guide. You may continue relying on wishful thinking if that’s your preference. ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2005, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/38 "2005-02-24T02:28:33Z")
> [@](#): > > If they are not worth defending from a nuclear-armed aggresor, what sort of nations is? (I mean that seriously; please answer the question.) If you say “none,” you are essentially saying that there should be no interference when someone decides to be the aggressor. What if China decides to take back Mongolia? What if disputes over the Spratlys lead to attacks against Vietnam or the Phillipines? Hell, what if they want to take New Zealand? I don’t think a policy of “well, they have nukes. Gotta let 'em do what they want” makes much sense. I just don’t think Taiwan is worth risking a nuclear war over. > [@](#): > > Do you seriously think that if the US shoots Chinese planes violating Taiwanese airspace, the Chinese response will be to nuke Seattle? They’re not psychopaths (unlike, say NK), and they know what the response would be. I am presuming if China really wanted to take over Taiwan, they have the resources that they could do so quickly with little losses. At that point, if the US wanted to do something they’d have to launch a full scale attack to kick the Chinese out of Taiwan. Even if it didn’t go nuclear, things would be pretty ugly. ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2005, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/39 "2005-02-24T02:34:19Z")
> [@Bryan Ekers](#): > > Best bet for Taiwan (and probably their main plan) is to just wait until communism collapses in China, as it so richly deserves to do. I wonder if they produce any television broadcasting aimed at the mainland showing how happy and prosperous they are? China is more a fascist state than communist. And I see little evidence they will soon collapse. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2005, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204/40 "2005-02-24T02:59:43Z")
> [@rfgdxm](#): > > China is more a fascist state than communist. And I see little evidence they will soon collapse. Well, perhaps “collapse” is too strong a word. Rather, I expect the Chinese government to be forced into major reforms sooner or later. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-taiwan-declare-independence-will-china-invade-will-should-we-intervene/291204.md?page=3)