# Will territorial disputes in the South China Sea lead to war? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 23, 2023, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947 "2023-10-23T09:18:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/1 "2023-10-23T09:18:10Z")
Territorial brinkmanship in the South China Sea has crossed a new line. Chinese vessels made physical contact with — some reporters are using the term “rammed” — Filipino vessels. The US is deploying in response. > **[US renews warning it will defend treaty ally Philippines after Chinese ships...](https://news.yahoo.com/us-renews-warning-defend-treaty-083353410.html)** > > The United States renewed a warning Monday that it would defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack under a 1951 treaty, after Chinese ships blocked and collided with two Filipino vessels off a contested shoal in the South China Sea. ... This is a no-middle-ground dispute. China says the sea is China’s, and will defend against what it defines as incursion. Everyone else (or nearly) says “no, it isn’t, and you have no right to do that.” What’s the endgame? Seems to me that war is sometimes defined by an invitation to conflict, which is either accepted or declined. In this case, China may push its claim with increasing aggression, to the point that a military response is obliged, believing that they are calling the West’s bluff as to its rhetoric. The West (meaning primarily the US) will then decide whether to allow its bluff to be called, surrendering to Chinese demands, or to back up its rhetoric with real action, leading to escalation. I don’t feel like I know enough about this to have an opinion, and I’d like to open the floor to better-informed views. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/2 "2023-10-23T13:40:54Z")
If it was a deliberate ramming, what’s their endgame? Keep poking the bear, so to speak, until we either make a bigger move or there’s a change in leadership in the US that might respond differently? How much slack do they have before a real confrontation? I’m likewise no expert but I’m also curious what others think. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/3 "2023-10-23T14:15:31Z")
I think that China continually pushes boundaries, just like Russia does. They’re deliberately doing this to see where the Filipino/US response will land and what they can get away with. They know the Filipinos aren’t going to start a war, but they don’t really know how far and how firm our support for their territorial claims are. I doubt they’re trying to start a war; that wouldn’t be advantageous for anyone involved. But they’re absolutely willing to push to see where the boundaries are, and how far they can be pushed. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/4 "2023-10-23T14:43:04Z")
EDIT-Upon reflection, my post doesn’t seem to fit well with the thread. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/5 "2023-10-23T15:08:02Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I doubt they’re trying to start a war; that wouldn’t be advantageous for anyone involved. But they’re absolutely willing to push to see where the boundaries are, and how far they can be pushed. That’s the complicated and dangerous part. “Pushing the boundary” in this situation is _literally_ asking, “Does this start a war? Does _this_ start a war? Does **_this_** start a war?” At some point the answer will be “yes, oops.” ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/6 "2023-10-23T15:28:10Z")
I only have time for the quick reply that it’s nothing new; back in 2001 a US EP-3 was intercepted by Chinese fighters, one of them collided with it causing the Chinese jet to be lost and forcing the EP-3 to conduct an emergency landing in China. [Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident). It’s been happening a lot again recently, more so than was previously acknowledged. > **['Lives Are at Risk': Pentagon Declassifies Hundreds of Dangerous Chinese...](https://www.airandspaceforces.com/pentagon-declassifies-hundreds-chinese-intercepts/)** > > Chinese aircraft have engaged in many more risky intercepts of U.S. planes than previously publicly known, the Pentagon said Oct. 17 ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/7 "2023-10-23T15:43:19Z")
I think that right now, it’s more like “Does _this_ start a war?” , until Uncle Sam says “Do something like that again, and it will start a war.” We do the same thing to them, FWIW. We regularly do “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea. In other words, the Chinese claim all that seven-dash line area as their territorial waters, but we (the US and UK in particular) deliberately sail warships through it, staying _just_ outside of the actual maritime boundaries for such things. That’s us saying “So… this is what you say is Chinese territorial waters. Are you willing to fire on a US destroyer to prove it?” ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/8 "2023-10-23T15:57:37Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > What’s the endgame? I don’t know because there is no logic to this. At this point, we are buying a huge amount of goods from China. We are of definite benefit to them economically. They would prefer a dangerous and destabilizing war instead? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2023, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/9 "2023-10-23T16:03:16Z")
This is what gets me, but we’ve just seen two major acts where the aggressors misjudged or didn’t care about the consequences. Both the Ukraine invasion and Hamas assaults are hard to logically follow. We have to hope China is smarter. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/10 "2023-10-24T14:58:03Z")
I believe they buy US bonds. Can we quit paying them if they attack one of our ships? ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2023, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/11 "2023-10-24T17:31:02Z")
That and plenty more. I won’t complain. 😐 ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2023, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/12 "2023-10-25T01:53:38Z")
Aggresive countries have been doing this for years. They keep making more and more steps and dare countries to start wars to stop them. This is where miscalculations occur. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2023, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-territorial-disputes-in-the-south-china-sea-lead-to-war/991947/13 "2023-10-25T04:01:39Z")
I bet the Philippines really regrets kicking the US military out of Subic Bay and Clark Airforce base. China [claims](https://apnews.com/article/china-map-territorial-dispute-south-sea-702c45165d7f9cade796700fffa5691e) a huge swath of the Pacific. The big challenge is that China (along with Taiwan, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Borneo, plus possibly Cambodia, and Singapore) lay claim to various parts of the Pacific. And closer to home, in the northeast, there is a group of islands administered by Japan, but also claimed by China and Taiwan. Here is Wikipedia’s [take](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute) No, I don’t think it will lead to war but accidents can happen.