# Will Texas turn blue? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 7, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524 "2008-07-07T04:27:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/1 "2008-07-07T04:27:31Z")
Some [think that indeed Texas can tun blue.](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/moser) > [@](#): > > the Realm of the Bushes is now being described–in the Wall Street Journal, no less–as potentially “the next California.” The next big Republican stronghold, in other words, that is headed for a seismic partisan flip. It won’t happen tomorrow, of course. But unmistakable signs of a Democratic breakout are all around. In Dallas, linchpin of the Republicans’ statewide ascendance in the 1980s, an innovative grassroots campaign in 2006 earned Democrats a sweep of more than forty contested judicial races–and Harris County (Houston) seems poised for a similar switch. Democrats won back six Statehouse seats in 2006, bringing them within five of regaining the majority and having a hand in revising Tom DeLay’s infamous Republican-friendly redistricting after the next census. … And in the March presidential primaries, a startling show of Democratic enthusiasm was the big story buried under the Clinton/Obama headlines: just 1.3 million Texans voted Republican, while nearly 2.9 million voted Democratic–more than voted here in either of the last two general elections for Gore or Kerry. Political scientists are projecting that Bush Country will morph, by 2020, into the nation’s second-largest Democratic state. “Texas,” Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean enthused during the DNC’s rules committee showdown in May, “is ready to turn blue.” > > Yes, Texas. … > > … The Democratic resurrection in Texas could hardly be happier news for the national party’s long-term future. But in the short-term calculus of a presidential election year, it does create a dilemma–albeit a rather pleasant one–for Barack Obama’s campaign. > > On the one hand, Texas Democrats stand to gain more ground in local and legislative elections in November, and they could surely make good use of the rocket-boost of grassroots energy and big money that is Obama’s to spread around. Those investments, in turn, would build momentum for a quicker statewide turnaround–meaning, among other things, more members of Congress to bulk up the majority behind Obama’s policies. Down the road, of course, it would also bring the Democrats closer to a potential mother lode of electoral votes–thirty-four at present, with more than forty projected by 2030–that could make national contests vexingly difficult for Republicans to win. > > On the other hand, there is no realistic prospect that, barring a national landslide, Obama can carry Texas–until 2012, perhaps. … Besides, no matter how financially fat the Obama organization might be, running a full-scale campaign on Texas’ vast landscape of media markets is dauntingly expensive, with candidates needing to fork over some $1.4 million per week from Labor Day forward to get sufficient advertising on the air statewide. That adds up to a minimum of more than $11 million–money that might pay more immediate dividends in North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado or New Mexico, toss-up states where Democratic turnarounds are further advanced. > > In the consultant-driven, micro-targeting days of the not-so-distant Democratic past, the Texas dilemma would have been solved easily enough: look at the polls–screw it!–shovel everything into Florida and Ohio! As former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe reportedly declared in a strategy session during the Gore campaign, “All we care about is getting to 270”–electoral votes, that is. Winning the White House, in turn, was supposed to be a magic bullet for building the party nationally–though Democrats in states like Texas reaped no benefits from President Clinton’s two wins. > > But it’s not only a new day for Democrats in Texas–it also looks like a new day for the national party… David Axelrod, promised in a series of Texas fundraisers in early June that fifteen staffers would be dispatched to Texas for the general election. “He was cagey about their level of investment,” says Molly Hanchey, the ObamaDallas chair. “But he was clear that we won’t be just an ATM this time.” And that’s more important, she says, than making Texas a full-scale presidential battleground in November. No, I highly doubt that Team Obama is going to make huge media buys in Texas. It is an expensive state and as I think 538 pointed out as well (can’t find the post) an Obama win in Texas can occur but would go along with enough other wins that he wouldn’t need it whereas if he loses enough other states that he needs to win Texas then he has no chance there. But I believe Team Obama will compete there anyway - with the ground game (much more cost-effective) - and with select media buys to build on Democratic strengths and to help particular individuals down ticket. These are medium to long term plays that will perhaps even put Texas in play this time (I do see it as less than impossible), but will more importantly build there enough to keep it from being a Red gimmee in the future. And I leave open the possibility that if Obama raises enough money he may throw some more in Texas too. For debate: how much will Team Obama attempt to compete in Texas and with what kind of results, both this cycle and for the future? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/2 "2008-07-07T04:32:05Z")
Funny, but I remember growing up in Texas, no one would have beleived it could ever turn Republican. That tells you how many years ago it was. Things always change. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/3 "2008-07-07T05:07:43Z")
Been hearing rumors to this effect for some time now. There are a couple of serious obstacles, money and money. Texas is the Saudi Arabia of America, it is the home of capitalisms _wahabbist_ sect, truly fanatical capitalists, richer than Midas and just to the right of Ayn Rand. And then there’s the structure of Texas political machnery, artfully devised by DeLayCo for the maximum advantage for the Republicans. A very tough fight, fer sure. But this is not the first or only report I’ve heard of optimism and enthusiasm, so I’m rooting for the team. At the least, I expect the Dems to gnaw away at Republican power in Texas. Still think turning blue is a bit too optimistic, its like playing Republican poker, they get seven cards, you get five, all yours are face up and he gets to draw twice. But goddamn! GOD-damn! If they pull it off, Texas Republicans will wander the streets in like stunned oxen, and the Pillars of Heaven will shake. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/4 "2008-07-07T05:21:50Z")
Recently, I had an aunt visit from Denton, right outside of Dallas. “Have you seen that picture of Obama and his family?” Nope. Which one? “Ugh, just ugh. Personally, I’m not ready for a black man as president.” This is the same family that calls black women “nigras” and everyone else “coloreds”. The same family that also won’t speak to any black person that shows up at their house unless in an absolute emergency. Not saying Republicans are racists, but racists are pretty much Republicans if they are anything at all. Give it another generation, I say. Let the boomers die off first, then we’ll talk. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/5 "2008-07-07T05:25:34Z")
Not all that long ago, California was a reliable Republican state in presidential elections. As has been said, things change. Ed ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/6 "2008-07-07T07:49:46Z")
[QUOTE=suranyi] Not all that long ago, California was a reliable Republican state in presidential elections. As has been said, things change. Ed [/QUOTE] Not this year. California might have a slim chance of turning Red because of all the political turmoil there, but there’s absolutely no indication that Texas will go blue. The election map is going to look the same this year as it did in 04. The only difference we’ll see is in the states that were close then. ---
**Author:** ![Sublight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@Sublight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sublight)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/7 "2008-07-07T08:19:31Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] Funny, but I remember growing up in Texas, no one would have beleived it could ever turn Republican. That tells you how many years ago it was. Things always change. [/QUOTE] True, but was that an instance of the parties changing, or the Texans? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/8 "2008-07-07T13:26:19Z")
Aren’t the Texas Democrats generally a lot different than the Democrats one might find in NY, MA or even IL? Like, maybe more conservative? IOW, it’s one thing to elect local Dems to office in the state, but another thing to elect a “Northern Dem” to the presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/9 "2008-07-07T13:32:26Z")
Generally speaking, yes, except in urban centers like Houston or most particularly Austin. Democratic Congressman Matt Santos carried Texas in his bid for the White House, 🆒 , but I can’t see Barack Obama doing it, even when/if running for reelection in four years. I agree he’s likely to try to fire up the grassroots and maybe make some appearances there, to help the party and to force McCain to have to fight there, but doubt he’ll make huge ad buys unless the state really seems within his grasp come October. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/10 "2008-07-07T15:07:57Z")
In [_Made in Texas: The Southern Takeover of American Politics,_](http://www.amazon.com/Made-Texas-Southern-Takeover-American/dp/0465041213) native Texan Michael Lind asserts there has been a “civil war” of political cultures going on in Texas for decades – Old South traditionalists vs. New Deal modernists. LBJ represented the latter, and it is not dead, only marginalized at present. Plenty of hi-tech industry in Texas still, and that produces a culture that does spill over into political views. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/11 "2008-07-07T15:20:19Z")
I wouldn’t make too much of the Democratic turnout advantage in the primary. It was an open primary. The Republican race was pretty much over by then, and Limbaugh was urging Texas Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Who knows how many did so, just to monkey with the Democratic results. (To be fair, some may have crossed over not because of Limbaugh but just to be sure that the Republican would wind up running against the lesser of two evils, as they saw it.) ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/12 "2008-07-07T16:05:12Z")
I have found [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) to be a good resource. The last poll in TX was on June 25th. It showed McCain 48%, Obama 39%. That’ll be tough to overcome. > [@Mosier](#): > > The election map is going to look the same this year as it did in 04. The only difference we’ll see is in the states that were close then. You think? If the election were held today, and the polling is accurate, Obama wins easily. Compared to '04, Obama gets all of the states that Kerry got plus picks up CO, IN, IA, MT, NM, OH and VA. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/13 "2008-07-07T16:12:58Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] …If the election were held today, and the polling is accurate, Obama wins easily. Compared to '04, Obama gets all of the states that Kerry got plus picks up CO, IN, IA, MT, NM, OH and VA. [/QUOTE] From your lips to God’s ears! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/14 "2008-07-07T16:32:19Z")
The chances this election depend on Texas Republicans mostly sitting on their hands and Obama motivating a large turn-out in what appear to be his two likely demographics there: urban centers, such as Houston and more so Austin, and Hispanics. Those are areas that he can reach moderately cost-effectively without buying into all Texas media markets. Buy into Spanish language media (highlight how McCain has now taken to trumpetting English-only and his pandering to the right on immigration reform perhaps), a few big city buys, and a good urban ground game. Texas Republicans have, per that article, become pretty hardcore. Those are folks who McCain may fail to excite and may just stay home assuming a Texas win. Especially if Team McCain decides not to spend too much going negative on Obama there. (Coming out to vote against Obama will motivate there more than voting for McCain methinks.) Texas would be an upset win for Obama for sure, but I can see it happening. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/15 "2008-07-07T16:35:10Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] I have found [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) to be a good resource. The last poll in TX was on June 25th. It showed McCain 48%, Obama 39%. That’ll be tough to overcome. [/QUOTE] But it’s interesting that the current map shows Texas as “Weak GOP” rather than “Strong GOP.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/16 "2008-07-07T16:46:03Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] But it’s interesting that the current map shows Texas as “Weak GOP” rather than “Strong GOP.” [/QUOTE] That’s because it’s a nine point lead. If it were a ten or more point lead, it would be considered strong. The Dems have way more electoral votes in the Barely column so the lead is more shaky than it might appear. ---
**Author:** ![Merhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Merhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merhouse)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/17 "2008-07-07T18:04:39Z")
IMHO Texas wouldn’t turn blue even if you cut off its air supply. Hmmm, it might turn purple though :eek: ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/18 "2008-07-07T20:01:07Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] I have found [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) to be a good resource. The last poll in TX was on June 25th. It showed McCain 48%, Obama 39%. That’ll be tough to overcome. [/QUOTE] Yet put that last poll [in context](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_mccain_vs_obama-628.html) … Rasmussen (that last poll, McCain up by 9) had previously been at McCain up by 13 and the other recent poll has McCain only up by 5. Remember, SUSA had Clinton up by 12 in Indiana just before the election and Obama only up by 5 in North Carolina. Rasmussen at least had him up by 9 there. Yet it was a near tie in Indiana and Obama actually won North Carolina by 15, 6 more than Rasmussen called it and 10 more than SUSA had - on the eve before real voting. Real results depend on who decides to come out that day. A lack of a McCain ground game there coupled with some lack of GOP enthusiasm for him, coupled with good organization and targeted media buys (not blanketing the state) by the Democrats, may indeed result in a surprise. Even more so if Team McCain decides that they are really not under enough threat there to use up resources defending it. Worst case for the Democrats is that some down ticket candidates are helped and the organization is grown for next time. Not a bad result for a few professional staffers, a few million, and a visit or two. ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/19 "2008-07-07T20:12:44Z")
Of note, in its history, Texas has had 39 democratic governors and 6 republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2008, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/20 "2008-07-07T20:48:07Z")
[QUOTE=Merhouse] IMHO Texas wouldn’t turn blue even if you cut off its air supply. [/QUOTE] I say it’s worth a try. Where’s the valve? 😉 (I kid. I kid my Texas friends.) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524.md?page=2)