# Will Texas turn blue? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 7, 2008, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524 "2008-07-07T04:27:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/41 "2008-07-09T03:19:52Z")
Although I’d left the state long before, I recall that Clinton won at least his first election in 1992 without Texas, which voted Republican. So you CAN become president without winning Texas. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/42 "2008-07-09T04:30:52Z")
The ONLY thing that could change Texas to the Democratic side is a HUGE increase in political interest among Mexican voters. There’s no question that Mexicans are a sleeping giant, and the Democrats have been trying to wake that giant for a long time, without any success. Those Texas Mexicans who DO vote will vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, as they usually do for ANY Democrat. But Obama holds no great personal appeal for Latinos. There may be a candidate somewhere who can excite them enough to bring them to the polls in huge numbers, but Obama isn’t it. Look, even when Tony Sanchez ran for governor, he attracted little support from Mexicans, and was trounced by Rick Perry. If Sanchez couldn’t stir the sleeping giant, I’m not sure who could. Maybe in a few decades, Texas could be so heavily Hispanic that even a minority of the Hispanic vote could deliver the state to the Democrats… but for now, that’s a pipe dream. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/43 "2008-07-09T04:54:18Z")
[QUOTE=astorian] The ONLY thing that could change Texas to the Democratic side is a HUGE increase in political interest among Mexican voters. There’s no question that Mexicans are a sleeping giant, and the Democrats have been trying to wake that giant for a long time, without any success. Those Texas Mexicans who DO vote will vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, as they usually do for ANY Democrat. But Obama holds no great personal appeal for Latinos. There may be a candidate somewhere who can excite them enough to bring them to the polls in huge numbers, but Obama isn’t it. Look, even when Tony Sanchez ran for governor, he attracted little support from Mexicans, and was trounced by Rick Perry. If Sanchez couldn’t stir the sleeping giant, I’m not sure who could. Maybe in a few decades, Texas could be so heavily Hispanic that even a minority of the Hispanic vote could deliver the state to the Democrats… but for now, that’s a pipe dream. [/QUOTE] I think you might be mischaracterizing Mexicans. I don’t see any evidence that Mexicans are particularly likely to vote Democrat. They liked Hillary, and Bill before her, but Republicans generally don’t have a hard time winning in states with high latino populations, with the exception of California, and I am not sure Democrats win a higher percentage of latino votes in California than white votes. It’s my opinion, based on spending my entire lifetime exposed to more latino culture than “white” culture, that there’s no fuckin’ way a black man is going to convince latinos to go out and vote for him enmasse, ESPECIALLY when that black man defeated their preferred candidate. Sacrificing a large latino turnout is the price Democrats have to pay for putting Obama forward. I think he makes up for that deficiency (and more) with the black and youth vote, though. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/44 "2008-07-09T13:28:03Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] I don’t see any evidence that Mexicans are particularly likely to vote Democrat. … It’s my opinion, based on spending my entire lifetime exposed to more latino culture than “white” culture, that there’s no fuckin’ way a black man is going to convince latinos to go out and vote for him enmasse … [/QUOTE] Well here’s some evidence: Obama currently [polls](http://www.gallup.com/poll/108532/Hispanic-Voters-Solidly-Behind-Obama.aspx) much stronger among Hispanics than does McCain. Consistently two to one for Obama. > [@](#): > > Hispanic registered voters’ support for Barack Obama for president remained consistent and strong in June, with Obama leading John McCain by 59% to 29% among this group… Hispanics of differing demographic backgrounds all tend to solidly support Obama. It thus appears that there isn’t much beyond a shared Hispanic ethnicity or identity that explains Hispanic voting patterns. Getting them to come out and vote is the issue. The immigration reform debacle may have energized them and [these get out the vote drives](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/07/07/coalition_of_latino_groups_lau.html?hpid=sec-politics) may help. > [@](#): > > A multi-million dollar ad campaign designed to encourage voter registration and increased political participation among Latinos who are legal residents launches today nationwide on Spanish-language television and radio stations. The National Association of Latino Elected Officials, in cooperation with National Council of La Raza, Univision, State Farm and other groups will spend $3 to 4 million on the campaign. The coalition will air 30- and 60-second radio ads, as well as public service announcements on Univision, Time Warner Cable, Comcast Cable, and other outlets. Yes a surprisingly strong Hispanic turn-out would be more likely to make a difference in New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida, but 36% of Texans are of Latino heritage, mainly Mexican-American. 12% are Black. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_Torque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Max\_Torque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_Torque)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/45 "2008-07-09T13:50:30Z")
I’d just like to note that there are pockets of Democratic fervor in Texas. The former County Attorney from my office self-identified as a “yellow dog Democrat” (as in, “I’d vote for a yellow dog before I’d vote for a Republican.”). And he was re-elected for decades. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/46 "2008-07-09T17:39:45Z")
As to the question of Hispanic turnout - [Pew Research](http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf) (warning pdf) has looked at the turnout during the primaries. > [@](#): > > In a year when the turnout in the Democratic primaries and caucuses has > risen sharply across the board, Latinos made up a growing share of > turnout in 16 of the 19 states for which exit polling permits a comparison > between 2008 and 2004. The most noteworthy increases came in > California and Texas. In California, Latinos were 30% of all Democratic > primary voters on Feb. 5, compared with their 16% share in 2004. In > Texas, Latinos were 32% of all Democratic primary voters on March 4, > compared with their 24% share in 2004. Let’s translate that into some raw numbers. In 2004’s Democratic Texas primary (about 840K total ballots cast) about 200K Hispanics came out to vote. In 2008’s over 900K did. I’d say that’s revved. [Some](http://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/hp/content/shared/news/stories/2008/05/HISPANIC_VOTING29_COX.html) (mind you “a progressive think tank”, so take it with a grain of salt) believe that Hispanic Democratic turnout is going to be quite dramatic. > [@](#): > > A record 11.9 million Hispanic-Americans will vote in this year’s presidential elections, a staggering 59 percent more than cast ballots in 2004, a progressive think tank estimated on Wednesday. … “This is a community that is much more Democratic than it was in 2004 and is going to be voting in much greater numbers,” Rosenberg told reporters during the release of a report by the organization looking at the growing political heft of Hispanic voters. “It is a new day. Hispanics are poised to play a very major role in the 2008 elections.” > > Energized by the heated rhetoric on immigration, the study found, Hispanic-Americans have voted in record numbers during this year’s presidential primaries. Their impact could be felt heavily in several swing states with large Hispanic populations, including Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada. > > “The immigration debate has fundamentally altered the desire for civic participation in the Hispanic community,” said Rosenberg. “They are blaming the Republican Party for the anti-immigration sentiment, the anti-immigration rhetoric in America today.” We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/47 "2008-07-09T20:00:53Z")
Obama would have had an incredibly hard time getting ANY of the latino vote if McCain had stuck to his guns on the inmigration issue. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/48 "2008-07-09T20:12:38Z")
[QUOTE=hajario] You think? If the election were held today, and the polling is accurate, Obama wins easily. Compared to '04, Obama gets all of the states that Kerry got plus picks up CO, IN, IA, MT, NM, OH and VA. [/QUOTE] I hope you’re right, I really do. I remember how disgusted I was at the thought of my home state of Wisconsin even being considered as being in play in 2004. However, Obama isn’t going to get that huge of a blowout. Just hope for a victory, man. Looking for a Mondale-style blowout is the road to disappointment. The repugs have not yet begun to get ugly. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/49 "2008-07-09T20:25:44Z")
There is a potential wedge issue for Latinos. Suppose McCain leans towards accepting the Latinos currenty in residence, but supports keeping any more out? He panders to the right with “border security” but reassures those already here that he is not anxious to deport anybody. Of course, only those already citizens have the right to vote, but how many of them have friends or relations of questionable status? How vulnerable are they to an appeal about new immigrants taking their jobs (which, given the circumstances, are much harder to get and keep)? I see the potential for a very ugly wedge issue here. ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/50 "2008-07-09T22:26:13Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] Well, I doubt the people changed, but I can’t say if the parties changed all that much. Looking at US politics and political parties from abroad, outside the hoopla, I don’t see that they’ve really changed much at all if any. I remember the first Republican governor since Reconstruction, Bill Clements in 1978, but Texas was still largely a Democrat state and voting Democrat in most presidential elections (I remember it went for Nixon, though). I left Texas before it became well and truly regarded as a “red state,” I guess is what they’re calling it now. [/QUOTE] [They changed in a few important ways…](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy) Democrats had been the racists. Democrats turned inclusive, in part likely, because they were being outflanked on racism. At least in the south. ---
**Author:** ![Man\_from\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Man\_from\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_from_Mars)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/51 "2008-07-09T22:26:18Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] If I remember correctly, in a previous thread you were proven wrong. Black candidates have historically polled higher than election results showed. For some reason I think it was Brainglutton that supplied the link, but I might be wrong. [/QUOTE] I found this article on pew research which says that the discrepancy between polls and actual results has lessened over time, and may no longer be as serious as it once was. I certainly hope so. Also, I find it interesting that in the older elections, the percentages polled for the black candidate were more or less accurate but the white candidate’s poll numbers were actually low. I don’t know how these polls work, but my assumption is that the “dishonest” answers are more likely in the “undecided” column rather than being leached from the black candidate’s percentage. [Can You trust What Polls Say about Obama’s Electoral Prospects?](http://pewresearch.org/pubs/408/can-you-trust-what-polls-say-about-obamas-electoral-prospects) ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524/52 "2008-07-09T22:38:58Z")
What I think I’d like to see, if the 527s go bonkers, is Obama asking America why a few rich people are so opposed to him being president. Why they are willing to deliberately lie. Why they will twist and distort the truth in rather obvious (to the informed) ways. And how McCain is going to balance the budget while not rolling back the tax cuts on the wealthy. That’ll make people think. He needs to not look like a victim, not play the victim card, but he needs to look like a fighter - just a more proportionate one than Hillary. Then he needs to make sure people know he has the debunking website. Even if people don’t visit it, that it exists helps create a shred of doubt - and means he isn’t laying down. That said… People keep referring to Houston and Austin. I live outside Dallas. We elected Ron Kirk. We did a lot of things. The metropolitan areas are where Democratic voters come from. Not rural. Upside? Economies of scale. If, and that’s a huge if, Obama chose to make any kind of a run here in an effort to nudge it blue - he could let McCain run in El Paso, Odessa, Tyler, and San Angelo. All Obama would need is Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Austin to put things into play. States are a popular contest - not regional - and population is blue where it is densest. Texas has more blue in it than people think. Or a rebellion against the red. Bush disillusioned the centrists. Perry has made it worse… the Trans-Texas Corridor has offended a lot of the libertarian, Ayn Rand types. Perry is a troll of a politician with good hair. His appointees have mischaracterized the transportation budget so the state could sell highways already under construction to tollway companies… Perry is no real friend of mine. I’m centrist. I’m going for a straight ticket this year. And it ain’t red. (When Iraq starts making it clearer just how much they want us out - that will play to judgment. Iraq is likely smart enough to do something late in the year to make their hopes very clear. And their capabilities. If the fighters actually want us out - they’d be wise to ease up later in the year.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-texas-turn-blue/455524.md?page=2)