Although I’d left the state long before, I recall that Clinton won at least his first election in 1992 without Texas, which voted Republican. So you CAN become president without winning Texas.
The ONLY thing that could change Texas to the Democratic side is a HUGE increase in political interest among Mexican voters.
There’s no question that Mexicans are a sleeping giant, and the Democrats have been trying to wake that giant for a long time, without any success.
Those Texas Mexicans who DO vote will vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, as they usually do for ANY Democrat. But Obama holds no great personal appeal for Latinos. There may be a candidate somewhere who can excite them enough to bring them to the polls in huge numbers, but Obama isn’t it.
Look, even when Tony Sanchez ran for governor, he attracted little support from Mexicans, and was trounced by Rick Perry. If Sanchez couldn’t stir the sleeping giant, I’m not sure who could. Maybe in a few decades, Texas could be so heavily Hispanic that even a minority of the Hispanic vote could deliver the state to the Democrats… but for now, that’s a pipe dream.
I think you might be mischaracterizing Mexicans. I don’t see any evidence that Mexicans are particularly likely to vote Democrat. They liked Hillary, and Bill before her, but Republicans generally don’t have a hard time winning in states with high latino populations, with the exception of California, and I am not sure Democrats win a higher percentage of latino votes in California than white votes.
It’s my opinion, based on spending my entire lifetime exposed to more latino culture than “white” culture, that there’s no fuckin’ way a black man is going to convince latinos to go out and vote for him enmasse, ESPECIALLY when that black man defeated their preferred candidate. Sacrificing a large latino turnout is the price Democrats have to pay for putting Obama forward. I think he makes up for that deficiency (and more) with the black and youth vote, though.
Well here’s some evidence: Obama currently polls much stronger among Hispanics than does McCain. Consistently two to one for Obama.
Getting them to come out and vote is the issue. The immigration reform debacle may have energized them and these get out the vote drives may help.
Yes a surprisingly strong Hispanic turn-out would be more likely to make a difference in New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida, but 36% of Texans are of Latino heritage, mainly Mexican-American. 12% are Black.
I’d just like to note that there are pockets of Democratic fervor in Texas. The former County Attorney from my office self-identified as a “yellow dog Democrat” (as in, “I’d vote for a yellow dog before I’d vote for a Republican.”). And he was re-elected for decades.
As to the question of Hispanic turnout - Pew Research (warning pdf) has looked at the turnout during the primaries.
Let’s translate that into some raw numbers. In 2004’s Democratic Texas primary (about 840K total ballots cast) about 200K Hispanics came out to vote. In 2008’s over 900K did. I’d say that’s revved.
Some (mind you “a progressive think tank”, so take it with a grain of salt) believe that Hispanic Democratic turnout is going to be quite dramatic.
We’ll see.
Obama would have had an incredibly hard time getting ANY of the latino vote if McCain had stuck to his guns on the inmigration issue.
I hope you’re right, I really do. I remember how disgusted I was at the thought of my home state of Wisconsin even being considered as being in play in 2004.
However, Obama isn’t going to get that huge of a blowout. Just hope for a victory, man. Looking for a Mondale-style blowout is the road to disappointment. The repugs have not yet begun to get ugly.
-Joe
There is a potential wedge issue for Latinos. Suppose McCain leans towards accepting the Latinos currenty in residence, but supports keeping any more out? He panders to the right with “border security” but reassures those already here that he is not anxious to deport anybody. Of course, only those already citizens have the right to vote, but how many of them have friends or relations of questionable status? How vulnerable are they to an appeal about new immigrants taking their jobs (which, given the circumstances, are much harder to get and keep)?
I see the potential for a very ugly wedge issue here.
They changed in a few important ways…
Democrats had been the racists. Democrats turned inclusive, in part likely, because they were being outflanked on racism. At least in the south.
I found this article on pew research which says that the discrepancy between polls and actual results has lessened over time, and may no longer be as serious as it once was. I certainly hope so.
Also, I find it interesting that in the older elections, the percentages polled for the black candidate were more or less accurate but the white candidate’s poll numbers were actually low. I don’t know how these polls work, but my assumption is that the “dishonest” answers are more likely in the “undecided” column rather than being leached from the black candidate’s percentage.
Can You trust What Polls Say about Obama’s Electoral Prospects?
What I think I’d like to see, if the 527s go bonkers, is Obama asking America why a few rich people are so opposed to him being president. Why they are willing to deliberately lie. Why they will twist and distort the truth in rather obvious (to the informed) ways. And how McCain is going to balance the budget while not rolling back the tax cuts on the wealthy. That’ll make people think.
He needs to not look like a victim, not play the victim card, but he needs to look like a fighter - just a more proportionate one than Hillary.
Then he needs to make sure people know he has the debunking website. Even if people don’t visit it, that it exists helps create a shred of doubt - and means he isn’t laying down.
That said… People keep referring to Houston and Austin. I live outside Dallas. We elected Ron Kirk. We did a lot of things. The metropolitan areas are where Democratic voters come from. Not rural. Upside? Economies of scale.
If, and that’s a huge if, Obama chose to make any kind of a run here in an effort to nudge it blue - he could let McCain run in El Paso, Odessa, Tyler, and San Angelo. All Obama would need is Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and Austin to put things into play. States are a popular contest - not regional - and population is blue where it is densest.
Texas has more blue in it than people think. Or a rebellion against the red. Bush disillusioned the centrists. Perry has made it worse… the Trans-Texas Corridor has offended a lot of the libertarian, Ayn Rand types. Perry is a troll of a politician with good hair. His appointees have mischaracterized the transportation budget so the state could sell highways already under construction to tollway companies…
Perry is no real friend of mine. I’m centrist. I’m going for a straight ticket this year. And it ain’t red.
(When Iraq starts making it clearer just how much they want us out - that will play to judgment. Iraq is likely smart enough to do something late in the year to make their hopes very clear. And their capabilities. If the fighters actually want us out - they’d be wise to ease up later in the year.)