# Will the choice of Paul Ryan as VP doom Florida for Romney? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 11, 2012, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161 "2012-08-11T04:34:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/81 "2012-08-11T16:34:58Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > As much as **adaher** wants to turn another thread into a debate on budget plans, let me offer a political comment: Paul Ryan very much strikes me as the Jack Kemp of this decade. Lots of ideas, energetic, and smart. I think Kemp had a couple advantages in that he was somewhat more charismatic, plus he played in the NFL. People could relate to that. > > But in the end, Kemp didn’t help Dole at all. I think there are remarkably few undecided voters this year, and I just have a hard time seeing this pick changing people’s minds. In fact, I’m not sure there is a VP pick that would generate a lot of momentum for Romney. > > I’m going to lay out a prediction here: over the next week, polls will remain pretty much as they are (Obama up nationally by roughly 4), and by the end of the conventions, we’ll pretty much be at the same place. > > Let’s see just how good a prognosticator I really am. Romney will get a convention bounce. It always happens. It will only be maintained if something external happens that is bad for Obama. If the stock market falls due to the Euro crisis for instance, or unemployment has a big change, or something drastic happens in Iran or Syria, all bets are off. Otherwise, I don’t think this play will appeal to the undecided votes - it will turn out the base, but the base is being polled and what Romney needs is the undecided voters and a shift in the middle. Moreover, while this will turn out the tea party and evangelical base, it is not a move likely to appeal to seniors and our aging baby boomers, who may lean right, but aren’t necessarily dependable. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/82 "2012-08-11T18:13:56Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Paul Ryan Argued Snow Invalidates Global Warming Policy. In the same December 2009 op-ed, Ryan argued, “Unilateral economic restraint in the name of fighting global warming has been a tough sell in our communities, where much of the state is buried under snow.” In fairness to Ryan, maybe he was just trying to say his _community_ is too dumb to understand what global warming means, not that he himself is that dumb. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2012, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/83 "2012-08-12T19:10:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Um, because it only cuts the deficit over the next ten years by 10%. We’re $9 trillion in the hole. THe bush tax cuts for the rich will only raise $700-$900 billion. The deficit isn’t synonymous with the debt. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/84 "2012-08-12T19:36:49Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > What makes you think that those over 55 don’t care about the future for their children under 55, but only about themselves? The very idea that this is a valid approach is pure class warfare. > This announcement constitutes a surrender for the Romney campaign, knowing it means losing Florida among many other places. Let’s hope this is Goldwater all over again, part of the process of healing the party of its infection so it can become responsible once again. Problem with this: Goldwater’s butt-kicking gave us the modern GOP. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2012, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/85 "2012-08-12T20:06:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We already invest a ton in education and results are not improving much. No one anywhere in the world knows how to grow an economy . . . Keynes did, and [Krugman does.](http://www.amazon.com/End-This-Depression-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393088774) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2012, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/86 "2012-08-12T20:10:53Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > What makes you think that those over 55 don’t care about the future for their children under 55, but only about themselves? The very idea that this is a valid approach is pure class warfare. > This announcement constitutes a surrender for the Romney campaign, knowing it means losing Florida among many other places. Let’s hope this is Goldwater all over again, part of the process of healing the party of its infection so it can become responsible once again. Have you forgotten what happened to the GOP **after** Goldwater? Its present state would drive him into the arms of Karl Marx. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/87 "2012-08-13T03:16:15Z")
Krugman and Keynes have theories of how to grow an economy. No one in practice has been able to get consistent results from any set of policies. If Keynes and Krugman knew how to get growth, then stimulus would work consistently. The only way you can say it does is by insisting that stimulus always creates more growth than there would otherwise be, an undisprovable assertion. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/88 "2012-08-13T08:47:42Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Come on. You know the horse is going to the glue factory once the election is over. It lost, after all. No, based on her past practices, she’ll dope it up and then sell it to some sucker as a healthy horse. Guess she’s picked up some business practices from her husband. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/89 "2012-08-13T10:28:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Um, because it only cuts the deficit over the next ten years by 10%. We’re $9 trillion in the hole. THe bush tax cuts for the rich will only raise $700-$900 billion. Then we shouldn’t do it? Just because something doesn’t plug the entire deficit hole by itself means it’s not worth doing? If this is 10% of the problem, let’s do it! ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/90 "2012-08-13T10:38:59Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’ll see your Florida and raise you Arizona. What the Ryan pick does is write off Florida. Those seniors do not want their Medicare threatened. Now the Ryanites tried to calm the waters by saying to seniors “we’re not going to fuck _you_ over, we’re going to fuck _your kids_ over when they get to be your age.” I don’t think that will sell, seniors know that Republicans hate Medicare like they’ve always hated Social Security. Color Florida blue, it’s over. > > Obama wins easily, and you can now put Arizona with its sizable senior population in play. Uh huh. Well, you do have a keen analytical insight. [QUOTE=BobLibDem on 08-18-2004 at 02:29 PM; 5179681] I happen to think it will be a Kerry landslide. I see a lot of red states turning blue but none will go the other way. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/91 "2012-08-13T10:39:51Z")
Personally, I think after the election the GOP should just give in on the Bush tax cuts for the rich. That way it takes it off the table and they can turn to the Democrats and say, “Okay, how do we solve the rest of the problem?” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/92 "2012-08-13T10:43:39Z")
Now Bricker, no one claims to be right all the time. I’ve made my share of bad predictions in the past too. I was sure McCain was going to beat Obama easily. I think Bob is wrong again, but his 2004 prediction doesn’t really have any bearing on whether he’s right this time or not. Predicting election results is tough even for the pros. And Florida I think is still leaning GOP. Seniors know there’s a problem, it’s just never been in their self-interest to see it dealt with until after they are gone. Ryan’s plan caters to their desires by exempting them. If anything, Ryan’s plan is better for current seniors, because otherwise seniors get stuck with IPAB and more draconian Medicare fixes like reducing doctor reimbursements. And of course Dems have already cut MEdicare Advantage pretty severely. Which may be good policy, but can’t be too popular with seniors taking advantage of the program. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/93 "2012-08-13T10:57:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now Bricker, no one claims to be right all the time. I’ve made my share of bad predictions in the past too. I was sure McCain was going to beat Obama easily. > > I think Bob is wrong again, but his 2004 prediction doesn’t really have any bearing on whether he’s right this time or not. Predicting election results is tough even for the pros. > > And Florida I think is still leaning GOP. Seniors know there’s a problem, it’s just never been in their self-interest to see it dealt with until after they are gone. Ryan’s plan caters to their desires by exempting them. > > If anything, Ryan’s plan is better for current seniors, because otherwise seniors get stuck with IPAB and more draconian Medicare fixes like reducing doctor reimbursements. And of course Dems have already cut MEdicare Advantage pretty severely. Which may be good policy, but can’t be too popular with seniors taking advantage of the program. Politifact rates the claim about ACA cutting Medicare “mostly false.”. I know that won’t matter, of course. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/94 "2012-08-13T11:32:34Z")
For 100 points and the game, name the Obama cuts in Medicare that Ryan-Romney oppose. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/95 "2012-08-13T11:34:44Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Politifact rates the claim about ACA cutting Medicare “mostly false.”. I know that won’t matter, of course. Politifact is an unbiased source, but not wisdom coming down from the mountaintop. They note that Medicare continues to grow under ACA, the rate of growth is just slowed. Whenever Democrats attack Republicans for merely slowing the growth of spending, they call it ‘crippling cuts’. As a matter of fact, Ryan’s budget plan, supposedly the most heartless budget plan ever produced, grows spending at 2.5% per year. So if the ACA contains no cuts, then Democrats can’t attack the Ryan plan for having cuts. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/96 "2012-08-13T11:35:56Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > For 100 points and the game, name the Obama cuts in Medicare that Ryan-Romney oppose. They support the reforms the cut Medicare mostly, they just don’t support taking money out of Medicare to create a new entitlement. And then double counting that money. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/97 "2012-08-13T12:01:28Z")
Ryan doesn’t reduce Medicare. He does away with it entirely. Calling his voucher program Medicare is just a distraction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/98 "2012-08-13T12:09:42Z")
Actually, his latest version keeps traditional Medicare and offers seniors the choice to get a voucher instead. > **[Ryan unveils new Medicare plan that keeps traditional option](https://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ryan-unveils-new-medicare-plan-that-keeps-traditional-option-qj3eqtc-135626323.html/)** > > GOP House budget chair Paul Ryan has teamed up with Senate Democrat Ron Wyden to offer what they're billing as a bipartisan approach to overhauling Medicare. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/99 "2012-08-13T12:41:39Z")
According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation, there will be no reduction in services under the cap in growth that the ACA requires. > [@](#): > > CMS and the Kaiser Family Foundation tell ABC News that there will be no benefit cuts to Medicare. They say instead of Medicare’s being cut, there will be much more spending at the end of a 10-year window, but it does slow the rate of that growth. This is all unless Congress makes drastic changes to Medicare, for example passing House Budget Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan’s Medicare Plan. > > CMS says—and Kaiser agrees—that spending will be reduced by getting rid of fraud and ending overpayments to private insurance companies. It sends a message to those insurance companies: Operate more efficiently. > > And instead of cuts, the CMS says they will be able to fund new benefits, including free preventive care and broader prescription coverage, including closing the “doughnut hole” affecting seniors. > **[Fact-Checking Romney: Does Health Reform Cut Medicare, Levy $500 Billion Tax?](https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/fact-checking-romney-does-health-reform-cut-medicare-levy-500-billion-tax/)** > > Get breaking national and world news, broadcast video coverage, and exclusive interviews. Find the top news online at ABC news. Since both the ACA and Romney/Ryan include this same cap on growth, the real difference is that Obama takes the savings and uses them to help address the nation’s health care needs. Romney/Ryan uses them to provide additional tax cuts to the very wealthy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2012, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161/100 "2012-08-13T12:57:13Z")
If there are no real cuts, why the need to postpone the Medicare Advantage cuts until after the election? Obviously there’s no problem, so let the Medicare cuts go through in October as planned. [http://blogs.courant.com/connecticut\_insurance/2011/04/obama-administration-spares-fu.html](http://blogs.courant.com/connecticut_insurance/2011/04/obama-administration-spares-fu.html) Millions of seniors in popular private insurance plans offered through Medicare will get a reprieve from some of the most controversial cuts in President Obama’s healthcare law. In a policy shift critics see as political, the Health and Human Services Department will award quality bonuses to hundreds of Medicare Advantage plans. The $6.7-billion infusion could head off service cuts that would have been a headache for Obama and Democrats in next year’s elections for the White House and Congress. More than half the roughly 11 million Medicare Advantage enrollees are in plans that are rated average. Hmm, looks like there are service cuts. CMS and Kaiser were wrong. or politically influenced. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-choice-of-paul-ryan-as-vp-doom-florida-for-romney/631161.md?page=6)