Here is is- December, and Tehran has not yet been abandoned- altho the water crisis is real,
Cape Town is not a city of international importance? Its almost 5 million residents might disagree.
And where are 15 million Tehran residents supposed to go?
I think we might. But we are also a very cosmopolitan city, so I am sure Tehranis would be welcome if they flee their city.
We do have our own water problems from time to time, but now almost every middle to upper class house has a huge rainwater tank, allowing the water supply to be cut off in order to serve the less wealthy. Sort of volunteer socialism in a way, crossed with the more basic selfishness of “I’ve got mine”. We are a slightly weird society.
It’s pronounced that way in Hebrew. Hebrew can’t have an H without a vowel in the middle of a word, so adding a vowel there is automatic for Hebrew speakers.
yep. and now amp up the REAL (not the talked/hyped-up) migration streams over that - and you don’t have to be a wizzard to predict explosive times ahead in the next 10-200 years …
the trumps, AdF, bolsonarios, Faschisti y LePens will surf the crest of this wave…
to cite you: Gonna be ugly.
I was in Capetown march/april this year, and was really surprised how (for a lack of better words) TROPICAL, HUMID and LUSH it was …
OK, I was most likely in a priviledged area (Newlands, lots of green gardens), but in the week+ there we had quite a few nightlong and strong thunderstorms there … Oddly enough Capetown is at the same lat/long (always confuse those) as Santiago, and Stgo. is eons drier, even though we share the same seasons …
Also, in one of those conversations with the cabdriver, he mentioned that with the climate change CT has actually become wetter than before … (take it for what it is)
Newlands is famously the wettest suburb, something to do with Table Mountain and wind patterns. If it is ever likely to rain, it WILL rain there.
thx for pointing that out … and that is an extremely good example of micro-climate, as the zone is not much more than 1.5 x 1 mile (eyeballing here) ..
cheers!
That’s what worries me. When it becomes a question as to whether those of us in the more temperate climate zones expect those in the tropics to starve, drown or move, the answers may be very unpleasant.
My sister, being way more wealthy than I will ever be, has a property in Newlands. She has a perennial river flowing through the bottom of her property.
She still has a 1000 litre rain tank.
Perhaps I should abandon this totally not Tehran related hijack…
I think it is more complicated than that: it’s not necesarily moderate climate zones that will do better (or worse) than the tropics … so it does not come with the territory.
It is lots and lots of micro-places will be better off / worse off due to climate shifts … some might become inhospitable (like Teheran) … and others might become way nicer than they are now. If you look at it and have a certain sensitivity, you can already see this just in the territory of the USA … where FL and Hawaii got swamped by medium to fat cats, and poorer locals cant afford to life there … that kind of thing.
The PROBLEM on the global scale is: this will happen “forcefully” within 1,2 or 3 decades, and not 100s of years for people to settle in “organically” like it was in the past (and hence allowing for organic growth of certain places). And that will create lots of hard shifts … and people hate hard shifts, especially when being on the losing end of it (e.g. white blue-collar workers in US that went full MAGA over the fact that they are losing something they had. (money, jobs, prestige, status,…))
When I was there 30 years ago, I went by the Tehran water works and copied down some of the messages they displayed on big signs over the streets:
آب شريان حيات است
Āb sharyān-e hayāt ast
Water is the artery of life.
آب الفباى آبادان است
Āb alefbā-ye ābādān ast.
Water is the ABC of civilization.
بدون آب هیچ گلی—شكفته نمى شود
Bedun-e āb hich goli shekofteh nami shavad
Without water no flower can blossom.
That’s attributable to the fact that - hang on to your seats - people actually began working in mass to do all the things necessary to conserve water. This delayed doom for so long that the crisis actually passed due to mother nature bringing rain.
It would appear that the leaders of Iran have other priorities they’d rather dedicate their national resources and efforts towards. It’s a bold strategy, we will see if it pays off.
The OP is giving the start date of concerns as September of this year.
Between July and October, Israel was firing missiles at Tehran and threatening to go to war.
I have no idea whether those are connected but certainly I can imagine that it’s difficult to keep water flowing when you’ve got to deal with the threat of invasion. But, likewise, I can imagine the central government doing things like saving off water into reserves, in case of a crisis, and of emphasizing an alternate crisis that might allow them to move the civilian population out of harm for a reason other than because the enemy is winning.
Probably, it’s best to take the matter at face value but it is curious timing.
The month of June or October is not relevant.
The “curious timing” of the water crisis is the result of decades; Long-term poor water management, based on the deliberate priorities of Iranian government policies.
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Looking up some data, it appears that total rainfall dropped around 2021 and has continued to remain low, steadily, since then:
Apparently, the biggest issue is that they’re not using ground cover in their agriculture and are losing about half of all the water that they use to irrigate. Plastic film could, plausibly, be their answer:
People in California did a lot of things like getting low flow toilets and changing from lawns to drought tolerant landscaping. That’s all fine but the overwhelming amount of water goes to agriculture and arcane laws disincentivize some growers from making changes.
Israel wasn’t firing missiles at Iran. Iran was firing missiles at Israel, and Israel hit back with airstrikes.
Iran was certainly not under threat of “invasion”.
Misrecalled.
An airstrike is, by definition, an invasion.