# Will the death of American social conservatism produce a completely new party system? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 17, 2014, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632 "2014-05-17T14:37:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/101 "2014-05-20T19:21:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A large percentage of Democrats either have no principles or just have a weird amount of trust in a politician. This, I argue is unhealthy. Back to unreasonable, but vague enough to be meaningless. > [@](#): > > And why wouldn’t assuming Obama could take us to war with Iran without a problem unreasonable? He took us to war in Libya with barely a peep from anyone. There were plenty of “peeps”. But in any case, the outrage was more subdued because there were no troops on the ground, no long term commitment, and no American casualties. That would not hold for any conflict with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/102 "2014-05-20T19:31:48Z")
So basically we can go to war as long as we’re only blasting foreigners. Again, what a principled position for Democrats to hold! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/103 "2014-05-20T19:33:16Z")
Multiculturalism _is_ assimilation. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/104 "2014-05-20T19:34:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So basically we can go to war as long as we’re only blasting foreigners. Again, what a principled position for Democrats to hold! Not exactly what I said. But blasting foreigners with no risk to Americans is going to be less objectionable to many than blasting foreigners with high risk to Americans. ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/105 "2014-05-20T19:47:13Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So “Democrats have no principles”, Mr. Hannity. What’s the point? Probably something along the lines that we are all doomed by our cult of personality. It’s why boring guys make the best leaders. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/106 "2014-05-20T19:47:22Z")
There is no low risk way to blast away at foreigners. What happens if the foreigners unexpectedly inflict casualties? Do we run away? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/107 "2014-05-20T19:48:24Z")
> [@Stringbean](#): > > Probably something along the lines that we are all doomed by our cult of personality. It’s why boring guys make the best leaders. Perhaps. But the main point was that a charismatic partisan can temporarily make his followers buck trends. Libertarianism is still the basic direction we are heading in, it’s just that Obama has temporarily arrested that trend among Democratic voters. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/108 "2014-05-20T19:50:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There is no low risk way to blast away at foreigners. What happens if the foreigners unexpectedly inflict casualties? Do we run away? Why are you asking me? I don’t want us to use military force anywhere at present. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/109 "2014-05-20T19:50:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So basically we can go to war as long as we’re only blasting foreigners. Kinda hard to go to war blasting anyone else, isn’t it ? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/110 "2014-05-20T19:51:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Libertarianism is still the basic direction we are heading in Not on health care. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/111 "2014-05-20T19:53:27Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Multiculturalism _is_ assimilation. Resistance is futile either way. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/112 "2014-05-20T19:54:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And why wouldn’t assuming Obama could take us to war with Iran without a problem unreasonable? For one thing, because he has never indicated the slightest interest in doing so. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/113 "2014-05-20T19:57:48Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > It’s not a very sophisticated estimate, but you can do a back-of-the envelope estimate based on fertility rates and interconversion rates. > > Religious people have more children than secular ones\* (evangelicals have about 2.5 per women, secular people about 1.5), and people raised ‘secular’ are somewhat more likely to convert to a religion as adults, than people raised religious are to lose their religion. (The Pew Forum refers to this as secularists having a lower ‘retention rate’ than religious people as a whole, and also lower than most individual religions). Those two are factors that tend to decrease the relative proportion of secularists. On the flip side, there is a much larger _number_ of religious people right now, in America. So even if only 33% of raised-religious people convert to secularism as adults, as compared to 50% of people raised secular, that still produces a net outflow of people from religion into secularism. > > Assuming birth rates and interconversion rates stay the same, the religious and secular populations should reach equilibrium at around 60:40. IIRC, relatively soon, within a couple generations or so. Anyone with the time and access to the data is welcome to make a better estimate, as I said this is purely back-of-the-envelope. > > \*Religiosity is also somewhat heritable, IIRC the heritability is around 0.5. Where are you getting those figures? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/114 "2014-05-20T20:04:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Not on health care. I agree with you policywise, the jury is still out on public opinion. The idiot pollsters aren’t actually asking voters what they want. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/115 "2014-05-20T20:10:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I agree with you policywise, the jury is still out on public opinion. The idiot pollsters aren’t actually asking voters what they want. They want single-payer, that’s been established for years now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/116 "2014-05-20T20:19:32Z")
If that was true, the Democrats would have just backed single payer. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/117 "2014-05-20T20:50:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If that was true, the Democrats would have just backed single payer. Obama took that off the table so fast all that was left was an outline of nematode worms. HE never was interested in single payer, because he’s a Republican Lite. He LURVED Romneycare, though, so he took that and rebranded it under his own name. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/118 "2014-05-20T21:02:13Z")
That’s not really true, he said that if he had his way, he’d start with single payer. But the political reality is that the vast majority of people liked the insurance they had, which means that you can’t screw with their insurance. Or at least not look like you’re screwing with it when you are trying to pass your bill. Single payer would have been a flashing red light saying, “Your insurance is cancelled.” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/119 "2014-05-20T22:04:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Single payer would have been a flashing red light saying, “Your insurance is cancelled.” Only if “cancelled” means “obsolete.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632/120 "2014-05-20T23:20:21Z")
That depends on how the law is written. If you establish a public option, that’s one thing. If you say that only the government can pay for basic health care as is done in Canada, or put restrictions on how private insurance can pay for care and what that means if you ever need public care, as Britain does, then it doesn’t make your insurance obsolete, it effectively makes it illegal, or at least very undesirable due to government policy. See, governments have never been willing to compete on an even playing field with private insurance. Since I’m assured that public insurance is superior, I’d be very happy to test that theory. I actually supported the public option, provided that it was not subsidized and would be allowed to fail if it went bankrupt. Let’s have that test! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-death-of-american-social-conservatism-produce-a-completely-new-party-system/688632.md?page=7)