Will the death of American social conservatism produce a completely new party system?

People wishing for something to happen, and them actually happening are two different things.

It wasn’t that long ago in 2008 that Obama won the election and many on this site were postulating how the county would be now that the Republican party was dead. Low and behold, in 2010, Republicans had a net increase of 69 seats in Congress. Some are predicting similar results in 2014. I don’t see the huge shifts that many see.

As I’ve said before, many on this site judge the country on the (vocal) liberal participants here. The country is more conservative than is perceived on this site, and as I travel the country, it is more conservative than I tend to remember. I live in big, east coast city so I don’t live in the big red country west of here.

I’m increasingly libertarian so that’s my perspective.

Like I said in the OP, we are talking about impending but not imminent changes, on a generational time-scale. Of course the GOP will survive these changes, but what it means to be “Republican” will change, as it has several times before.

As will what it means to be a “Democrat” change. Both are changing and have been since their creation.

Part of it is my age (50) but there was a time in my life when Republican were in the White House 20 out of the last 24 years, and many on the right where wondering what it was going to be like with the Democrats relegated to a second class party. The Dems shifted slightly, the American people wanted to hear a different voice, and here we are.

I’m not seeing the profound shift that you and many others are seeing, or wish to believe is happening.

See the OP, there is statistical evidence for it – the change in question being that social conservatism is far less salient in the Millennial generation than in elder generations, and there is no reason to expect any reversal in that trend.

In the long term of multiple decades political parties have a tendency to morph and can move in far from previous positions.

In the 1840’s and 1850’s it was the descendants of the Democrats that supported slavery. In the 1860 election is was that new radical and liberal Republicans with the wild ideal that slavery was an evil institution that ran and won. The democrat candidates wanted to continue with slavery as it was.

Took decades for the Dems and Repubs to morph to what they are now. I personally don’t think the two parties have changed all that much, but certainly perceptions have.

Where the two parties will be in 50 years is anyone guess, but for sure they will change.

Although I’m not a social conservative, I can make an argument for it that doesn’t rely on religion. It’s basically the social precautionary principle.

The argument goes like this: Like any ecosystem, society is an evolved construct. When looking at social structures, it’s important to consider that these evolved for a reason, even if we don’t quite understand it. We muck with them at our peril.

This is the same argument for not having a ‘progressive’ policy towards managing an ecosystem to make it ‘better’. If we tried applying ‘social justice’ to animals and started mucking about in the ecosystem to make it more fair, do you think we’d be likely to make it better? Or would we get bitten in the ass for mucking about with things we don’t understand?

For example, should we implement universal day care? What will be the social effects of that? Is it better for young children to be in institutions than with their mothers? Will the long-term effect of this be that more single mothers have children? Or perhaps child birth will increase if parents can have children and both still work? What happens to the generation after that? How will this change social attitudes? How will this affect family unity in the long run?

It could be argued that the replacement of charity as a largely private function into an entitlement has broken a number of social conventions that were very useful - in the past, people who received charity were generally given it with expectations that they would A) work to relieve the conditions that required the charity, and B) pay it forward. It was part of a social contract that helped keep people in line and kept communities more tightly bonded as everyone relied on each other. Taking that function and giving it to a faceless bureaucrat, and turning it into a ‘right’ removes all such obligation and exchanges local decision-making for bureaucracy. How does that effect society in the long run?

And religion seems to be touching a universal need, since it arises pretty much everywhere. If we destroy traditional religions, will people seek something else to replace it? Perhaps something more dangerous like worship of the state, or something equally goofy like Gaia theory, new age nonsense about crystals and chakras and healing auras, Wicca, or tribal politics as secular religion?

The social order is always changing. The automobile did more to destroy the nuclear family than did any ‘progressive’ politics of the time. So you can’t avoid change, and conservatives need to realize that. But at the same time, there’s an argument to be made that destroying old social orders because they are ‘unjust’ is a dangerous thing to do. It may be the right thing to do, but it needs to be approached with a little more humility and care.

Not WRT any particular element of it, you can’t. We’ve been over this before WRT same-sex marriage – all arguments against it are religious ultimately and the “social precautionary principle” does not hold water.

So you reject the view that social conservatives will ever vote based on their economic self-interest? In Iowa the leading Republican candidate is running on a platform than calls for eliminating the Department of Education. Say you’re lower middle class and pro-life. Would you vote for a candidate who is pro-life but wants to eliminate the Department of Education with its Pell grants and student loans–and you’ve got a kid who wants to go to college and there is no way you can afford to pay for it?

We’ll never be libertarian as the Libertarian Party sees it, but we continue to become more libertarian with time. The country is inexorably moving towards more freedom in both the social and economic spheres and the public is only growing more and more distrustful of government. The last time the American public’s attitudes towards government warmed was when it was being cut, during the Clinton years.

I think that in 50 years America will be a very different place and both right and left will have victories to cheer. Fiscal realities plus changing American attitudes means that the federal government in 50 years will be nothing more than an insurance company with an army. It will have mostly abandoned any of its other roles. On the bright side for liberals, at least no one will be able to say that the government is too complex for a President to manage. Just keep the checks going out. Who can screw that up?

That argument fails because the entire point of politicized social conservatism is to make laws against spontaneous social phenomena.

(It won’t do to get meta and declare these laws to be part of the existing system which is to be preserved under some “social precautionary principle” – there are simply too many cases where the politicized social conservative agenda demands the repeal of existing laws, which is obviously ruled out when one resorts to this argument.)

Those are goofy compared to what now?

It’s difficult for me to imagine another “Great Awakening” in the age of the internet. Previous forays into intense religiosity came in the times of respect for authority and poor avenues for the communication of ideas. Some generation is really going to have to go off the deep end for a new age of “traditional” morality to occur.

Where are you getting these figures?

What do you base that on?

Oh, it’s conceivable, by some interpretations we had one in the '60s. But another Christian Great Awakening is out of the question.

Watch the old HBO movie, “The Second Civil War”. Balkanization is historically no nation’s friend.

You know that was a made-up movie, and not a thing that actually happened, right?

Well, *Idiocracy *may yet turn out to be a documentary, so yaneverknow.

I recognize it’s a satire, and fiction, but like all good satire it was meant to make a point: a future America with 1 billion people, speaking several languages, and with racial enclaves all over, is not going to be a United States. Geez, even the Flemings and the Walloon can’t get along over in Belgium, and you think we’ll do better?

We’ve never had multiple languages or racial enclaves before, have we? :rolleyes: