# Will the Democrats win control of the Senate in November? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 4, 2004, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464 "2004-10-04T15:08:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/1 "2004-10-04T15:08:51Z")
From [http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct03.html:](http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct03.html:) > [@](#): > > Not much news on the presidential front today, but a lot of news on another, much less talked about front: the Senate. Five Democratic senators from the South are retiring at and end of this session of Congress: John Breaux (D-LA), John Edwards (D-NC), Bob Graham (D-FL), Fritz Hollings (D-SC), and Zell Miller (D-GA). Only three Republicans are retiring: Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO), Peter Fitzgerald (R-IL), and Don Nickles (R-OK). In addition to these eight open seats, one other seat is semi-open: Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is fighting to actually be elected to the Senate seat her dad the governor appointed her to. > > Early in the year, the Republicans couldn’t control their glee at the possibility of picking up as many as five Senate seats in the South, which has become increasingly Republican over the years. But a funny thing happened on the way to the election. The voters had different ideas. Not only are the Democrats holding four of the five seats in the South, but they are leading in all three formerly Republican seats. They are also leading in the only two really contested seats in which an incumbent might lose: Alaska and South Dakota. > > If the Senate election were held today, the Democrats would take control of the Senate, 52-48 (counting independent Sen. Jeffords as a Democrat, since he caucuses with the Democrats). And this realignment does not take into account the possibility that Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) might pull a Jeffords and jump ship. He is from a hugely Democratic state and, like Zell Miller, would be much more appreciated in the other party. The only reason Chafee hasn’t switched is out of a sense of duty to his late father, John Chafee, who was a respected Republican senator from RI. Here is the current polls. For more details about the individual races, see the Senate page. > > **State---------------------Democrat (pct)--------------------Republican (pct)** > > Alaska-----------------------Tony Knowles (47%)-------------Lisa Murkowski (41%) > Colorado--------------------Ken Salazar (50%)---------------Pete Coors (46%) > Florida-----------------------Betty Castor (49%)--------------Mel Martinez (43%) > Georgia---------------------Denise Majette (37%)-----------Johnny Isakson (53%) > Illinois-----------------------Barack Obama (68%)------------Alan Keyes (17%) > Louisiana-------------------“John” (47%)----------------------David Vitter (44%) > North Carolina-------------Erskine Bowles (45%)-----------Richard Burr (44%) > Oklahoma-------------------Brad Carson (44%)--------------Tom Coburn (37%) > South Carolina-------------Inez Tenenbaum (46%)---------Jim DeMint (43%) > South Dakota--------------Tom Daschle (48%)--------------John Thune (46%) > > Louisiana is a special case since the Senate election is nonpartisan and three Democrats and one Republican are competing against one another. The two Democrats who have a chance are Chris John and John Kennedy, collectively referred to here as “John.” If no candidate gets a majority on Nov. 2, there will be runoff in early Dec. What do you think? Will this election produce a Democratic-controlled Senate? And what will that mean for whoever is in the White House then? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/2 "2004-10-04T15:26:38Z")
Yeah, a last-minute surge for the challenger, a typical pattern, might well involve some coattail effect. Bush isn’t the only GOP candidate that undecideds might well be looking for a reason to vote against; their leadership’s conduct in Congress has been a cause for anger as well. I certainly could see a late surge of a “Fuck Bush and all the rest of 'em too” attitude putting this over the top. Anybody know of other poll compilation sites that address Congress too? ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/3 "2004-10-04T15:45:55Z")
Those poll numbers really are interesting. If they hold, it could make quite a difference in federal policy whoever wins the presidency. If Bush, the Senate democrats would probably hold together better than in the past, effectively blocking much of Bush’s agenda. And if Kerry wins, he would at least have the Rebuulican controlled house as a scapegoat. ---
**Author:** ![GLWasteful](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f05b48/32.png) [@GLWasteful](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GLWasteful)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/4 "2004-10-04T15:57:06Z")
Well, to answer the question posed, I certainly hope so. However, it bothers me to no end that there exist 17% of the populace of Illinois who have expressed support for Alan Keyes. I mean, really! Alan Keyes? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/5 "2004-10-04T16:01:44Z")
> [@GLWasteful](#): > > However, it bothers me to no end that there exist 17% of the populace of Illinois who have expressed support for Alan Keyes. I mean, really! Alan Keyes? Well, just think of that as a good indication of the percentage of the population (in Illinois, anyway) who would never vote for a Democrat under any circumstances – and be grateful the figure isn’t higher. ---
**Author:** ![GLWasteful](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f05b48/32.png) [@GLWasteful](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GLWasteful)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/6 "2004-10-04T16:06:38Z")
**BrainGlutton** : Done and done. But it still creeps me out. After all, this isn’t Tom DeLay we’re talking about, it’s Alan-freakin’-Keyes. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/7 "2004-10-04T16:12:26Z")
Confirms what I’ve said elsewhere- that the South isn’t as Republican as some folks might think (and others might wish). North Carolina, Louisiana and Florida are always up for grabs. South Carolina, hard hit by textile mill closings, may be wavering in its Republicanism. Georgia has several popular Democrats in statewide office, and it looks like its state House of Representatives will remain Democratic. And I will renew my prediction made earlier in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=270660) that Georgia will be closer than the polls are showing, owing to the presence on the ballot of a black candidate for Senate (Denise Majette). (A first for Georgia.) The Atlanta paper has noted a surprising surge in voter registration in Georgia this year, including a particularly strong surge among black voters (presumably the result of Ms. Majette’s agressive grass-roots campaign). Given Georgia’s history of low voter turnout, it wouldn’t take too many motivated voters to change the state’s political complexion. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/8 "2004-10-04T16:18:19Z")
Incidentally, Inez Tenenbaum has been making hay of her Republican opponent in South Carolina by attacking his support of proposals to replace the income tax with a federal sales tax. She has shown the proposal for what it is - a boon to the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. Republicans are absolutely panicked by her success. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/9 "2004-10-04T16:39:37Z")
Although I’m rooting for her, I’ll eat my hat if Tenenbaum wins. (With high hopes, I’m getting my mustard ready, just in case.) I figure the chances of the Dems winning the Senate are about 35 to 40 percent. No matter how well Kerry may do, we’re losing the South, and there’s a heck of a lot of open Dem seats down there this year. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/10 "2004-10-04T16:52:18Z")
The Reps may have to hold at least 52 seats to continue shutting out the Dems. [There may be at least one defector](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/04/politics/04chafee.html): > [@](#): > > One day after the Supreme Court sealed the 2000 election for George W. Bush, his running mate, Dick Cheney, went to the Capitol for a private lunch with five moderate Republican senators. The agenda he laid out that day in December 2000 stunned **Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island** , sending Mr. Chafee on a painful journey of political conscience that, he said in an interview last week, has culminated with his \*\*decision not to vote for Mr. Bush \*\* in November. > … > “I understand the feelings that he has,” **Mr. Jeffords said. "I’m going to be talking to him** , so I’m not going to say any more. I probably shouldn’t have even told you that." Don’t rule out Snowe and Collins following not much later. They’re both supported warmly enough in Maine that they wouldn’t face any real backlash if they do switch. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/11 "2004-10-04T17:40:41Z")
The short answer for the question posed in the OP: No. Obama is a lock in Illinois. The rest of the percentages are within or very close to the margin of error. Most voters are not politically sophisticated enough to grasp the national importance of local races. If they were, people like John Thune in South Dakota would benefit from national campaign contributions and other aid from individuals. I think the White House, Senate and House will be in Republican hands come November 3rd. And I think a Bush loss is more likely than the Senate switching majority parties. The House isn’t even on the table for Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/12 "2004-10-04T17:57:45Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > The short answer for the question posed in the OP: No. > > Obama is a lock in Illinois. The rest of the percentages are within or very close to the margin of error. If anything, I believe the polls are erring on the side of the Republicans in the South. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports again today a surge in black voter registration not just in Georgia but across the South, and suggests (as I have suspected for a while) that the sampling models used by pollsters may not be taking into account a possible surge in black voters. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/13 "2004-10-04T18:05:31Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yeah, a last-minute surge for the challenger, a typical pattern, might well involve some coattail effect. Bush isn’t the only GOP candidate that undecideds might well be looking for a reason to vote against; their leadership’s conduct in Congress has been a cause for anger as well. I certainly could see a late surge of a “Fuck Bush and all the rest of 'em too” attitude putting this over the top. That’s a very measured “might well,” **Elvis1Lives** , and a good thing too, since your crystal ball apparently broke on this question two years ago, as you may recall: > [@Elvis1Lives 07-17-2002](#): > > But it’s foolish to stand behind a prediction made more than a few months in advance - it’s only now becoming clear that the House and Senate will both be solidly in control of the Democrats next term. I’ll bet on that. I’ll also bet on the media not discussing the candidates or their policies any more deeply or responsibly in 2004 than they did, well, just about ever. > > This regency is taking on water, in case anyone hadn’t noticed. All of Bush’s individual problems are politically survivable, but the total is approaching critical mass. From [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=125829), which I expect to be linking to again in about a month… In any event, I don’t think the Senate is in serious danger of changing chands. - Rick ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/14 "2004-10-04T18:08:10Z")
I got 2 out of 3 right: > [@](#): > > I’ll also bet on the media not discussing the candidates or their policies any more deeply or responsibly in 2004 than they did, well, just about ever. > > This regency is taking on water, in case anyone hadn’t noticed. All of Bush’s individual problems are politically survivable, but the total is approaching critical mass. Pay up. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/15 "2004-10-04T18:10:51Z")
Not so much an issue of how many D’s and R’s add up to 50 or 51. It is the burgeoning sense that the era of the extremist R’s is closing. I speak, as most of you know, from the conservative wing of the extreme left, and I don’t _want_ a lock. I want a sensible rightwing to keep a check on some of the loonier ideas that come burbling out from my allies and friends. “Well, sure, I’d love to extend citizenship to gay whales, but the Pubbies won’t let us, mmmmm, nasty break…” Rulership and governance should proceed from a sensible center, and that is a fight worth making. If there is a slight R edge in the Senate, fine, so long as they are people we can negotiate with and come to a reasonable position. A fired-up, committed, and motivated center-left is a recipe for returning sanity to the nation, and not a moment too soon. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/16 "2004-10-04T19:02:13Z")
From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, here’s a column on the [dubious science (alchemy) of polling](http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/17 "2004-10-04T19:10:30Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > A fired-up, committed, and motivated center-left is a recipe for returning sanity to the nation, and not a moment too soon. These are the people that voted for Clinton. Edwards could have gotten them again. As I’ve said many times on this board, the Democrats cannot elect a President unless he is a southern moderate. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/18 "2004-10-04T19:19:26Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > In any event, I don’t think the Senate is in serious danger of changing chands. Even given the polls? The polls that you are always throwing about as evidence that Bush will be relected easily? Well, at least that you throw about when Bush is leading in them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/19 "2004-10-04T19:34:21Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > These are the people that voted for Clinton. Edwards could have gotten them again. As I’ve said many times on this board, the Democrats cannot elect a President unless he is a southern moderate. Not even if he has a Southern moderate as his running mate? And the incumbent’s running mate has a the charisma of a rotting dog carcass? ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2004, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/20 "2004-10-04T19:46:50Z")
Here’s my somewhat informed opinion of how things will break down in the open/competitive races: Illinois – Obama (D) wins (pick-up) Alaska – Knowles (D) wins (pick-up) Colorado – Salazar (D) wins (pick-up) South Dakota – Daschle (D) wins (same) North Carolina – Bowles (D) wins (same) South Carolina – DeMint ® wins (pick-up) Georgia – Isakson ® wins (pick-up) Washington – Murray (D) wins (same) Pennsylvania – Specter ® wins (same) Oklahoma – Carson (D) wins (pick-up) Florida – Castor (D) wins (same) So, that’s 4 Democratic pick-ups and only 2 for the Republicans. So, the net change is 2 seats, in favor of the Democrats, which (when you toss in Jeffords) in turn would give them control of the Senate. Of course, a lot could change in some of the races listed above, particularly Alaska, Colorado, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Florida. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464.md?page=2)