# Will the Democrats win control of the Senate in November? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 4, 2004, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464 "2004-10-04T15:08:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/41 "2004-10-05T17:59:57Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > Correct. I was actually thinking of Israel when I was making the reference. So what do you think of my point? Do you agree with it? I’ve run several GD threads on that very question. (Most recently, see “A multiparty system is better than a two-party system!” – [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=269169.)](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=269169.)) My thinking is, a change to a PR system would bring into politics a lot of extremists of the right and left who are present are effectively barred out of it unless they want to compromise their principles and work within one of the two main parties (as many do). We might see Congressman Ralph Nader, Congressman Al Sharpton, Congressman Michael Badnarik, Congressman Pat Buchanan, Congressman Roy Moore, Congressman David Duke, Congressman Louis Farrakhan, etc. On the other hand, under the present system the centrists – who are the majority, both in the political world and in the general population – **need** extremist support to win voting majorities in districts – and under a PR system, they wouldn’t. E.g., the mainstream, big-business-interest Republicans would no longer need the fundaloonie Republicans; the latter could split off, form their own party, go their separate way, and get their own representation in Congress, where they would vote with the Bizpubs on some issues but not others. I fleshed out the dynamics of this, best I could, in the thread linked about. So, in short, I think you’re half-right: Under a PR system extremists would get actual, direct **representation** in Congress than they have now; but extremists still would lose some of the policy influence they have now, because there would be a solid majority centrist block that, most of the time, on most policies, would be in agreement, center-left with center-right, and could get its business done without going to the extremists for votes. Most of the time, but not always, and sometimes the fringe parties would be able to use logrolling to get at least some of their agenda enacted. Also, the fringe parties would be represented on all the legislative committees and provide a wide range of different minority viewpoints in the process of crafting legislation before it comes to a floor vote. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/42 "2004-10-05T18:13:46Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > I’ll also note, **Shodan** , that there were some pretty inaccurate conservative predictions in that thread, too. Wonder why you didn’t quote them, o model of fairness, o bastion of balance? I’ve read thru the thread again - I honestly didn’t see any. The only poster I could identify as a conservative was **Sam Stone** (OK, libertarian), and his predictions (that Gore isn’t the right candidate for the Dems and that they need to run to the right to beat Bush) haven’t been shown to be inaccurate. If you mean **Big Kahuna Burger** , I don’t know enough about his politics to identify him as a conservative. Of course, he could be. > [@LHoD](#): > > Wanna see what a reasonable person does when they were wrong, Shodan? > > I was wrong. Kerry IS a serious candidate. > > I’m coming along in my lessons; one day, perhaps, I’ll be as nonpartisan as you . No, I don’t think you are wrong. Kerry is not a serious candidate. More like an empty suit. I am not sure why you think I believe myself to be non-partisan. I am conservative. And I didn’t post the predictions because I wanted to be fair. I was amused by what some are able to convince themselves of if they wish hard enough. FWIW, I don’t expect the Democrats to win the Senate in November, and I expect a Bush victory. It is entirely possible that I am wrong, and that I am confusing what I wish for with what is realistic. Like a lot of folks in the other thread. If it turns out that I am wrong, OK, then I’ll be wrong. If it turns out that I am right, I will do my best not to be insufferable about it. I grant that my best may not be all that good. And I am looking forward to the meltdowns with evil glee. We’ll see come November. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/43 "2004-10-05T18:23:01Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > If it turns out that I am right, I will do my best not to be insufferable about it. > > I grant that my best may not be all that good. And I am looking forward to the meltdowns with evil glee. Come now, leopard! We would never expect you to change your spots for us! ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/44 "2004-10-05T18:31:07Z")
> [@This Year's Model](#): > > The polls are far too volatile to say either party is on track. I think it’s wide open, and I think the Dems have a good chance. > > Yeah, I could put a reasonable amount of money where my mouth is. How’s $100 - straight-up. If the Democrats (including Jeffords - although technically an independent, he caucuses with the D’s) have control of the Senate, you win; if not, I win. “Control” may include the VP if the Senate is otherwise split evenly. A deal? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/45 "2004-10-05T18:41:14Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > No, I don’t think you are wrong. Kerry is not a serious candidate. More like an empty suit. Them millions of Americans who support Kerry must be fools, then, to support an empty suit, a nonserious candidate, huh? I think **Bricker** had a thread on this subject recently. Almost on this subject, anyway. > [@](#): > > I am not sure why you think I believe myself to be non-partisan. I am conservative. And I didn’t post the predictions because I wanted to be fair. I was amused by what some are able to convince themselves of if they wish hard enough. Yep–it’s pretty amusing. Remember the reasons for going to war? Jiminy Cricket sang his heart out. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/46 "2004-10-05T18:44:21Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > How’s $100 - straight-up. If the Democrats (including Jeffords - although technically an independent, he caucuses with the D’s) have control of the Senate, you win; if not, I win. “Control” may include the VP if the Senate is otherwise split evenly. > > A deal? A hundred is too much for me; I could go for fifty. The VP as of the date the Senate convenes, or the VP that is elected in November? I’d prefer the one elected, obviously. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/47 "2004-10-05T19:56:27Z")
> [@This Year's Model](#): > > A hundred is too much for me; I could go for fifty. The VP as of the date the Senate convenes, or the VP that is elected in November? I’d prefer the one elected, obviously. Yes, the VP that’s elected (by either the Electoral College or by the Senate in case of an EC tie) is the one that counts - we’re talking about control of the upcoming Senate, and the period of time between Jan 3rd and Jan 20th is too small to worry about. OK – $50. You’re on. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/48 "2004-10-05T20:03:20Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > OK – $50. You’re on. OK - done. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/49 "2004-10-05T20:40:29Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > Them millions of Americans who support Kerry must be fools, then, to support an empty suit, a nonserious candidate, huh? If you say so. 😃 But I don’t think there is a huge amount of support for Kerry _per se_. He is banking pretty heavily on being “anybody but Bush” and the war hero thing. I suspect that was the reason that there were so few Dopers who were willing to come out in his favor two years back. It was only after he became the last Democrat standing after the primaries and Dean’s downfall that Democrats sort of shrugged their shoulders, said, “Anybody will do” and jumped on the bandwagon. Doesn’t mean that he is necessarily going to lose (although I expect it - narrowly), or that anyone is a fool to support him. It is possible to be anti-Bush and still rational (although relatively rare on the SDMB, and getting rarer as November approaches). But Kerry is the nominee very nearly by default. There was genuine excitement about Dean, and some more about Nader (although the lefties shouted that down as soon as they could manage it), but nobody considered Kerry a serious candidate until he was the only one left. So here we are. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/50 "2004-10-05T20:42:50Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Now **there** is a thread I can read with interest - thanks, **Bricker**. > > Some highlights (all from [here.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=125829&page=1&pp=50) > > > [@minty green](#): > > > > Once again, I repeat: there will be–nay, can be–no invasion of Iraq. Yes, I concede that I vastly underestimated the reckless stupidity of Dear Leader and his handlers. But in the interests of fairness, you could have quoted my express _reasons_ for concluding that an invasion was not going to happen, which were and are quite correct: > [@](#): > > None of the essential countries in the region will permit our troops to be stationed there, nor will any of our allies assist or support us in such an enterprise. > [@](#): > > No nation in the region will allow the U.S. to launch an invasion from its territory, and our allies are all firmly against it (with possible exception of Tony Blair, ever balancing on the yellow stripe of a two lane highway and hoping not to get killed). > > That Bush is even considering it smacks of equal proportions desperation and idiocy. Silly me, I actually listened to the schmuck when he told us he was going to put together a real coalition, enlist the aid of the rest of the world, and get the United Nations on board. I certainly won’t make that mistake again, I assure you. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/51 "2004-10-05T20:51:34Z")
And in case those quotes didn’t make it clear why I concluded from the lack of regional and international support that an invasion was “impossible,” it’s because the _lack_ of such support would lead to precisely the boondoggle we have today. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/52 "2004-10-06T17:21:14Z")
As of today (10/6/04), [http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/senate.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/senate.html) projects the next Senate as 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, 1 Independent. The preceding link is to a new page of the site, providing a detailed state-by-state analysis of the Senate races. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/53 "2004-10-06T18:22:23Z")
> [@minty green](#): > > But in the interests of fairness, you could have quoted my express _reasons_ for concluding that an invasion was not going to happen, which were and are quite correct: > > > [@](#): > > > > No nation in the region will allow the U.S. to launch an invasion from its territory… Did you really think then that Kuwait would not allow an invasion of Iraq from its territory? I would have considered it ours for the asking, as, indeed, [it turned out.](http://www.fact-index.com/2/20/2003_invasion_of_Iraq_1.html) So, your first reason was and is quite incorrect. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/54 "2004-10-06T19:43:42Z")
> [@GLWasteful](#): > > Well, to answer the question posed, I certainly hope so. > > However, it bothers me to no end that there exist 17% of the populace of Illinois who have expressed support for Alan Keyes. I mean, really! Alan Keyes? Barack Obama must have been very, very good in a previous life to have accumulated so much positive karma. His old opponent was forced out of the race by the “scandal” of wanting a spicier sex life with his wife. His new opponent sounds like Marvin Martian on crack. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/55 "2004-10-06T19:48:41Z")
> [@Steve MB](#): > > His old opponent was forced out of the race by the “scandal” of wanting a spicier sex life with his wife. The guys must be an idiot. Millions of teenage boys (and a few of us adult kind) would sell their souls to the devil for one night with Seven-of-nine!! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/56 "2004-10-06T19:59:03Z")
Gotta admit. You’ve got 7 of 9 for the asking and YOU NEED MORE? _slap_ ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/57 "2004-10-06T20:21:10Z")
Oh, hell, if you were doing Jeri Ryan, you’d want to make sure everyone saw you doing her, too. I know I would. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/58 "2004-10-06T21:14:14Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > The guys must be an idiot. Millions of teenage boys (and a few of us adult kind) would sell their souls to the devil for one night with Seven-of-nine!! 🙂 True dat! Resistance is futile! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2004, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/59 "2004-10-06T23:37:54Z")
It’s great that the true spirit of bipartisanship can be found in Jeri Ryan’s tits. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464/60 "2004-10-07T00:32:56Z")
Speaking of predictions… > [@](#): > > **Sam Stone** said: > > The Democrats have one chance to beat Bush - on the right. A winning strategy for the Democrats would be to become the ‘war hawk’ party. After all, that’s what they used to be. Bush is vulnerable on Homeland Defense, where the administration is going seriously astray IMO, to is waffling on the war. If the Democrats could convince the country that they will fight the war better than Bush is, they’ve got a big chance. > > Given that strategy, Al Gore isn’t the right man for the job. He’s vulnerable to the accusation that the Clinton administration was asleep at the switch when it comes to terrorism. **Someone like John Kerry or John McCain, who have serious military credentials, could be a dangerous foe to Bush. Might even get my support.** If only they had listened… I still think Howard Dean was a disaster for the Democrats. Imagine if he hadn’t been in the race - Kerry and Edwards wouldn’t have voted against the 87 billion, and wouldn’t have had to move over to the anti-war side in the primaries. No flip-flopper charges, no backpedalling and trying to straddle the line on Iraq. Bush would be in BIG trouble right now. My other predictions from 2002: > [@](#): > > My predictions: > > 1. The Democratic challenger is most likely to be Al Gore, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, or someone who’s not even on the radar screen today - in decreasing order of likelihood. > > 2. Bush of course gets the Republican nomination. There are no serious challengers. > > 3. McCain doesn’t run. Certainly not as a Democrat. \*Possibly as an independant, but I’d give pretty long odds that he stays out of the race entirely. > > 4. If McCain does run, he loses. Big time. Independants just don’t have the infrastructure or funding. The best he’d do as an independent would be about like John Anderson - he might get into the high teens early on, but in the actual election less than 10%. But that might hurt Bush. > > 5. The usual fringe suspects will run again. Nader, Buchanan, et al. None of them amount to anything. > > 6. Cheney will still be on the ticket, barring some huge scandal that forces him off of it. > > 7. If Cheney does leave, Bush will not pick Tom Ridge for VP. The guy has built too much of a bad reputation as Homeland Security advisor. And I’d point out that it can only get worse - I have no idea how you can possibly make people happy as Homeland Security director - if the U.S. is attacked he wasn’t doing his job, and if it’s not attacked he’s doing too much. Can’t win. > > 8. Possible nominees for Bush VP would be Colin Powell (doubtful - the right doesn’ t like him much), Rumsfeld (but probably too old), or (outside shot) Condoleeza Rice, which I think would be a brilliant choice unless the Bush team knows something about her I don’t. But the most likely pick for VP would be for the ‘traditional’ reasons. You have to remember that there is a lot of electoral strategy in a VP pick. If you want to take a good guess at a Bush VP, just look at the larger swing states where Bush might be vulnerable - that’s where he can be expected to shore up his strength through a VP pick. So look for a popular governor from a swing state or geographic region that would help Bush. > > 9. There will be war with Iraq, before the end of the next winter. And it will have the support of many Muslim countries (including, importantly, Turkey and possibly Jordan). There will also be widespread coalition support for the attack. > > 10. Bush will be elected president again in 2004. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-win-control-of-the-senate-in-november/267464.md?page=4)