# Will the diamond market be destroyed? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 2, 2003, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156 "2003-10-02T16:44:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Demigorgon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/bc79bd/32.png) [@Demigorgon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demigorgon)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2003, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/1 "2003-10-02T16:44:18Z")
In main refernce to[this](http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.09/diamond.html) article. In short: 2 companies have developed a way to syntheticly produce diamonds. Not the little diamond flakes that are produced now, but big ones, and diamond wafers, which in the near future could be used to produce diamond computer chips. DeBeers is freaking out, and rightfully so. With mass production the market the value of a diamond could drop dramaticly. They’re saying hypotheticly diamonds could reach $5 a carat. My opinion? I sure as hell hope so. The only difference is that these diamonds aren’t dug out of the ground by some worker in a third world country making $2 a week, and they are of flawless quality. The whole value and hype of a diamond was created by the campaign’s of DeBeers. And as little attention as this has recieved it’s alomost like there’s a consiparcy to keep the story under wraps. This is big freakin news! And image the computer products that could be developed as a result! I can’t wait for my 100Ghz processor! ---
**Author:** ![Daizy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/46a35a/32.png) [@Daizy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daizy)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2003, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/2 "2003-10-02T16:48:35Z")
When did Canada become a third World Country? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2003, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/3 "2003-10-02T17:19:23Z")
DeBeers will start marketing their products as “real” diamonds, “forged by the fires of the heart of Earth” or some other romantic hooey. And it’s true that Canada produces a great many damonds, but I’m pretty sure no-one is working for $2 a week. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2003, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/4 "2003-10-02T17:21:25Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Daizy \* > \*\*When did Canada become a third World Country? \*\* 😕 [Another thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=207644) - Rune ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2003, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/5 "2003-10-02T20:06:13Z")
Look for DeBeers to start adding logos or other visibly identifiable markings to their natural diamonds so that people will know they are real diamonds. Or maybe come up with a different gem to replace the diamond. After all, it was the DeBeers marketing which promoted the idea of a diamond engagement ring. So chose some other gem (ruby, emerald, etc.) and make that the new gem. The new marketing campaign could be something like this: “Why buy the love of your life a colorless hunk of coal? Buy a heart-shaped ruby instead. It’s the only way to truly let her know that you love her.” ---
**Author:** ![Zenster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/cdc98d/32.png) [@Zenster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zenster)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/6 "2003-10-03T02:52:59Z")
In reality there is no existing “diamond market.” De Beers has manipulated prices, perception and supplies to the point where their CEOs all have outstanding warrants for their arrest should they set foot on American soil. Diamonds are neither rare nor hard to find. Very _large and flawless_ stones are another matter. Although the “Wired” article you link to is interesting and fact filled, it is also a little dramatic. I refer you to a much more realistic piece out of [The Industrial Physicist](http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-8/iss-4/p8.pdf) from August - September of last year. They interviewed Carter Clarke of Gemesis and he was not quite so optimistic as the “Wired” article made it seem. > [@](#): > > “We are producing a diamond every four days with each of 24 machines, but we are building more machines and hope to have 700 in our new facility,” says Clarke. > Gemesis is working on developing a colorless diamond as well, but Clarke admits that the problem is a tough one. “The nitrogen not only colors, it helps the crystallization process to go faster. So, at the moment, the less nitrogen, the slower the growth,” he explains. > Meanwhile, Gemesis is selling rough yellow diamonds, up to 3 carats in weight, to diamond cutters who produce finished stones weighing up to 1.3 carats (Figure 4). The gems - labeled as lab-grown, synthetic or cultured diamonds - retail for about $3,000 a carat, about half the price of comparable mined yellow diamonds. As you can see, they make no big mention of being able to produce flawless colorless white diamonds. Note (in my linked article) how the nitrogen gas needed to “getter” (reactively attract oxygen from) metallic compounds out of the aluminum-carbon starting mix also contributes highly undesirable (yellow) color. Why do you think they’re still only showing off yellow diamonds? Diamond synthesis is colloquially referred to as a “Goldilocks” process. Not too hot, not to cold, it has got to be _just right_. Please note the mention of **200** variables that must be controlled in order to reliably produce gem quality material. While this is an exaggeration, it still approximates the war of nerves needed to fabricate a girl’s best friend. The Apollo group mentioned in that “Wired” article is much closer to the goal of _applied_ diamond synthesis. For over two decades semiconductor researchers have understood (and published about) the utility of diamond layers. Known as DLF (Diamond Like Films), controlled reactions of carbon rich methane gases were known to produce usable thin films, but not any long sought rocks of the ages. The founder of Apollo will find his work with growing single crystal III-V (gallium arsenide) to be of great use. There were some other interesting passages in the “Wired” article. To wit: > [@](#): > > “Robert and Bryant Linares expect to use revenue from the gem trade to fund their company’s semiconductor ambitions. Not surprisingly, the diamond industry is hostile to the idea, as the younger Linares discovered four years ago when he attended an industry conference in Prague. He was hoping to find out whether any other researchers - possibly De Beers scientists themselves - had discovered the sweet spot. During a break in the conference, a man approached Linares and told him to be careful. “He said that my father’s research was a good way to get a bullet in the head,” Linares recalls.” While a bit dramatic, it still serves to illustrate the stakes involved. > [@](#): > > At the moment, the company is producing 10-millimeter wafers but predicts it will reach an inch square by year’s end and 4 inches in five years. The price per carat: about $5." Now this is where the meat can be found. At this point, we are no longer talking about jewelry. With its refractive index of ~2.42 , diamond is highly transparent to not only visible light but higher frequencies ranging from ultra violet to microwaves. FILR (Forward Looking Infra Red) detectors and other sensing devices all require a window through which to view the outer world. For an infra red Sidewinder missile, the lens is a shaped piece of pure single crystal silicon. Rock-hard and fully transparent to heat based photonic emission, it serves pretty well. Problems arise when jet fighters fly at multiple Mach speeds. Raindrops have been know to gouge out bit of a jet’s titanium skin. Such in-flight micro-collisions also can degrade the formed surfaces of a Sidewinder’s monocrystalline lens. Imagine the durability of a diamond aperture. Only high pressure forms of cubic boron nitride and carbon[sup]13[/sup] exhibit greater density or hardness. Now, consider that diamond, while a near-perfect electrical insulator, remains six times more _thermally conductive_ than copper. Here we arrive at a bit of pure horseradish embedded in the “Wired” article: > [@](#): > > But someday, that’s exactly what chipmakers will be forced to do. Just ask Bernhardt Wuensch, an MIT professor of materials science. “If Moore’s law is going to be maintained, processors are going to get hotter and hotter,” he tells me. “Eventually, silicon is just going to turn into a puddle. Diamond is the solution to that problem.” At temperatures that will _puddle silicon_ any multi-compound computing system will be demonstrating conductivity issues due to kinetic and electrical noise being introduced into its atomic structure. The above quote is a gross overstatement of diamond’s promise. Nonetheless, diamond films and solid shapes hold great potential to overcoming the materials based limitations of existing technology. In closing, De Beers has a lot to be afraid of, but only due to their extortionate manipulation of a market that would long ago driven the price of diamonds in to the realm of precious metals. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/7 "2003-10-03T09:29:43Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Demigorgon \* > My opinion? I sure as hell hope so. The only difference is that these diamonds aren’t dug out of the ground by some worker in a third world country making $2 a week, and they are of flawless quality. The whole value and hype of a diamond was created by the campaign’s of DeBeers. And as little attention as this has recieved it’s alomost like there’s a consiparcy to keep the story under wraps. This is big freakin news! \*\* Of course you realize those workers will then make $0 an hour. ---
**Author:** ![Skip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@Skip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skip)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/8 "2003-10-03T09:45:42Z")
One should also note that De Beers has quite a large industrial diamond business called Element 6. I would not be suprised if they aren’t hastily trying to culture their own multi-carat diamonds. Just in case… Also if Gemesis ever does manage to produce colourless diamonds, it is to their advantage to keep the price of diamonds high? Why sell a grown diamond for $200 when you can sell if for $1800 and still undercut De Beers (who might be selling theirs for $1900). Remember the aim of businesses is to maximise profit and if selling less diamonds for $1800 means bigger profit that is what they will do. ---
**Author:** ![dal\_timgar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@dal\_timgar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dal_timgar)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/9 "2003-10-03T18:25:29Z")
the diamond market is a farce. Diamonds are NOT RARE! The whole thing is a marketing delusion for women. ---
**Author:** ![Fang](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/96bed5/32.png) [@Fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fang)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/10 "2003-10-03T19:07:51Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by msmith537 \* > \*\*Of course you realize those workers will then make $0 an hour. \*\* True, but they will also not fund the cutting off of kids’ arms. I certainly was never one of the “sweatshops are slavery” crowd, but the diamond industry goes to far worse extremes than sweatshops. ---
**Author:** ![Zenster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/cdc98d/32.png) [@Zenster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zenster)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/11 "2003-10-03T19:22:07Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dal\_timgar \* > the diamond market is a farce. Diamonds are NOT RARE! The whole thing is a marketing delusion for women. The above bears repeating. While Gemesis has some interest in keeping the sale price of diamonds up, they will not have the market penetration that lower prices would bring. It is indeed a quandary. De Beers has an inventory of enough diamonds in all stages of production (raw, cut, polished) to the point where they have overtly threatened (in turn) the Russian and Australian diamond startups with flooding the market just long enough to put both of them out of business. This ploy obviously worked, because both of these countries acquiesced in joining the De Beers cartel. Someone desperately needs to break De Beer’s back. Only synthetic diamond fabrication promises to do this. I have serious doubts that Gemesis will be able to succeed as the diamond market is specifically oriented to _flawless colorless white +1 carat stones_. Their process (so far) does not lend itself to fast growth of such material. Apollo’s CVD method shows promise, but to deposit single crystal diamond phase carbon is more than a little daunting. Their wafer product alone could make them immensely wealthy as it has instant and sustained demand in both the electronics and defense industries. If Apollo has indeed found the elusive sweet spot, this might bode ill for De Beers in the long term. Still, the monstrous backlog of inventory sitting on De Beers’ shelves mean they can essentially ride jewelry diamond prices down to well below even the break even point of Gemesis or Apollo. With the _multi-billions_ of dollars that De Beers has in the bank already, I can only imagine that they too are pursuing synthesis. ---
**Author:** ![alterego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@alterego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alterego)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/12 "2003-10-03T19:36:49Z")
Another [thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=207644&highlight=fake+diamond) on this topic. ---
**Author:** ![handy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5a626/32.png) [@handy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/handy)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2003, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/13 "2003-10-03T22:01:26Z")
Gemesis needs seed diamonds to make their diamonds, don’t they? I wonder if they buy from DeBeers? ---
**Author:** ![Zenster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/cdc98d/32.png) [@Zenster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zenster)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/14 "2003-10-04T00:09:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by handy \* > Gemesis needs seed diamonds to make their diamonds, don’t they? I wonder if they buy from DeBeers? Why bother? Since the final diamonds are synthetic, a synthetic seed wouldn’t seem to violate any principals involved. Synthetic seed crystals would be very regular in size, have a higher purity and more consistent stochiometry. They would also cost a lot less. Buying from De Beers would be (as the Taiwanese say about doing business with China), “feeding the tiger with your own flesh.” After reading the Apollo patent, it is quite obvious that they do not have a method of growing gem size diamonds. The major advance I find cited in their process portion of the patent relates to the use of ECR (Electron Cyclotron Resonance) or microwave stimulation of the methane reduction plasma. The only other significant finding is their research into initiation layers (diffused carbide interface films) and the texturing required to enhance nucleation of the desired diamond coating. Their use of ion etching to accomplish a nonabrasive preconditioning of the deposition substrate all points towards industrial and electronic applications. Both ECR and ion milling have been around for decades. For fairly obvious reasons, the patent’s authors do not provide much detail about the aforementioned “sweet spot” of process parameters noted in the “Wired” article. These people are (as I suspected) going after non-cosmetic (i.e., not jewelry related) applications. Their mention of color control via boron doping was very interesting. I was amazed to see no mention of how it might be possible to create a diamond lensed laser scalpel. While they mention making a solid diamond scalpel more visible to the naked eye and how doping said tool thereby provides electrical conductivity to suppress ESD (Electro Static Discharge) i.e., static arcs, they do not mention the opto-mechanical hybrid design I have seen discussed elsewhere. Imagine having a diamond edged scalpel that also serves as an optical conduit for laser radiation. You would have the best of both worlds, a precise and incredibly sharp edged cutting tool that also channeled cauterizing (laser) energy to close off all tissue damage caused by the laceration. Selective doping and multilayer structures could also enhance heat removal to keep the implement cool during use. All of this points to a tremendous new family of surgical tools. However, none of this indicates that De Beers has a single thing to fear. A quick review of Apollo’s [patent](http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=/netahtml/search-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=ptxt&s1=6,582,513.WKU.&OS=PN/6,582,513&RS=PN/6,582,513) also revealed that tailoring gas compounds to enhance growth rates and other desirable properties tends to increase the COG (Cost of Goods) by orders of magnitude. An excerpt from the patent: > [@](#): > > “The advantages of enhanced thermal conductivity diamond have, to date however, not been applicable to any commercial application because the cost of producing .sup.12 C enhanced precursor gasses (typically methane gas) is prohibitively high compared to the cost of natural isotope gasses. Typically, the cost of .sup.12 C enriched precursors, such as methane gas, is $75 to $200 per gram, compared with the cost of unenriched methane at less than $0.01 per gram. Since only 1 to 2% of the methane is converted to diamond this would result in a cost of materials for enhance thermal conductivity of $7,500 to $20,000 per gram of diamond crystal produced and the cost for natural isotope raw materials at less than $1 per gram of diamond produced. This high cost far overshadows the advantages in tool, wire die, window or device performance obtained and would permit such enhanced thermal conductivity diamond to be used in only the most demanding and cost tolerant and low volume specialty applications.” De Beers is hardly quaking in their boots and more’s the pity. ---
**Author:** ![Zenster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/cdc98d/32.png) [@Zenster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zenster)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/15 "2003-10-04T01:51:03Z")
For anyone who takes this issue seriously, [this](http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/82feb/8202diamond1.htm) article (linked in the earlier thread) is required reading. It precisely details the outright fraud that De Beers has perpetrated upon the market. An excerpt: > [@](#): > > **Have You Ever Tried to Sell a Diamond?** > > _An unruly market may undo the work of a giant cartel and of an inspired, decades-long ad campaign_ > > by Edward Jay Epstein > > THE diamond invention – the creation of the idea that diamonds are rare and valuable, and are essential signs of esteem – is a relatively recent development in the history of the diamond trade. Until the late nineteenth century, diamonds were found only in a few riverbeds in India and in the jungles of Brazil, and the entire world production of gem diamonds amounted to a few pounds a year. In 1870, however, huge diamond mines were discovered near the Orange River, in South Africa, where diamonds were soon being scooped out by the ton. Suddenly, the market was deluged with diamonds. The British financiers who had organized the South African mines quickly realized that their investment was endangered; diamonds had little intrinsic value – and their price depended almost entirely on their scarcity. The financiers feared that when new mines were developed in South Africa, diamonds would become at best only semiprecious gems. ---
**Author:** ![manhattan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/manhattan/32/7_2.png) [@manhattan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manhattan)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/16 "2003-10-04T02:11:16Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Zenster \* > \*\*In reality there is no existing “diamond market.” De Beers has manipulated prices, perception and supplies to the point where their CEOs all have outstanding warrants for their arrest should they set foot on American soil. \*\* No they don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Freiheit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e8c25b/32.png) [@Freiheit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freiheit)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/17 "2003-10-04T02:33:34Z")
manhattan: we all know you meant “No we won’t.” 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Freiheit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e8c25b/32.png) [@Freiheit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freiheit)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/18 "2003-10-04T02:34:54Z")
er–don’t. And there goes my attempt at making fun. _sob_ ---
**Author:** ![Testy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c37758/32.png) [@Testy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Testy)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/19 "2003-10-04T07:02:10Z")
Several people on this and other threads have pointed out that selling a diamond is generally disappointing. The seller gets around one-third of what they paid for the stone new. Given that there is little or no difference between a brand new diamond and a “used” one, how does DeBeers or whoever prevent a thriving trade in second-hand diamonds? Is there any objective reason for the differences in pricing or is it simply an opportunity for gem dealers to rip someone off? How would someone tell the difference anyway? Regards Testy ---
**Author:** ![drachillix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/48db29/32.png) [@drachillix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drachillix)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2003, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156/20 "2003-10-04T14:32:48Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Testy \* > Is there any objective reason for the differences in pricing or is it simply an opportunity for gem dealers to rip someone off? How would someone tell the difference anyway? Thats probably not too far from the wholesale price that a gem dealer pays for his “new” stones. Its not like a typical jewelry store make hundreds of sales a day, so it has to pay its employees, rent, insurance, etc on the few sales a day it does get. Although there is some pretty ugly market manipulation something else to consider is how often we buy jewelry. Most prople don’t buy really nice pieces of jewelry more than a couple times in their life. Makes it even harder to support a business. In many cases the price we pay for diamond jewelry is pretty much what the market will bear, and what the stores can stay in business on. Many people here never look at things from the perspective of the business owner and are painfully unaware that the neghborhood discount store has similar levels of markup. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-diamond-market-be-destroyed/205156.md?page=2)