# Will the Domino effect of liberlaisation happen in the Middle East? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 23, 2003, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572 "2003-03-23T17:36:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/1 "2003-03-23T17:36:21Z")
So Iraqs defeated, it rebuilds, has a shaky democratic government in place, its economy booms and the people of Iraq are generally enjoying their new freedoms, troubles up north, Kurdistan, is one of the few ‘problems’ that hinder total iraqi rehabilitation. But what about the rest of the Middle East? Which states will start to show cracks under the pressure for more basic human rights and respect for rule of law, how would this liberalisation affect the world economy, would it be similar to the fall of communist governments in the Eastern Europe, will the Middle East need a ‘Marshall plan’ to effectively hinder progress of Islamist parties, I think that Saudi Arabia would be most resistant to democracy as it is the bastion of world Islamism, would America like the Idea of a democratic Middle East, I am not convinced it does because it is much more easier to manipulate dictatorships to your will than a democracy. And why has it been so hard for Middle Eastern states to implement Democracy? Is it ever going to work by the force of a gun, or does it need to be from the grassroots level? Are we seeing the fall of the Regimes now that America has the will to replace them? How many years would it take for full democracy to take a hold and produce a stable region a volatile as that one? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/2 "2003-03-23T17:45:39Z")
Do a thought experiment. If tomorrow, a full and free vote could be taken throughout the Middle East, guaranteed honest (voting overseen by Jimmy Carter or Jesus Christ, whomsoever) on the issue “Do we love America, or hate America?”… What do you think the result would be? ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/3 "2003-03-23T18:44:04Z")
> [@](#): > > Are we seeing the fall of the Regimes now that America has the will to replace them? You’re witnessing the fall of **one** regime. The current administration may have the “will” to replace more, but I’ll bet my ACLU card that they won’t get supported on the next one. And the countries involved have no reason to change internally. ---
**Author:** ![drhess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/94ad74/32.png) [@drhess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drhess)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/4 "2003-03-23T18:55:11Z")
Ok, if you tell me if the UK would “like the Idea of a democratic Middle East, I am not convinced it does because it is much more easier to manipulate dictatorships to your will than a democracy”, I’ll tell if the US does. I mean, why just ask about the US? ---
**Author:** ![Milum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ea666f/32.png) [@Milum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Milum)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/5 "2003-03-23T19:00:47Z")
**If free elections were held in all countries of the Middle East on the issue… “Do we love America, or hate America?” What would they say?** What the heck does that mean? Rephrase the question… **"Do the people of the Middle East want to have central air conditioning and six-hundred and two channels on their digital TV?"** If so, there is only one way… \*\* Join the free people of the world and go foward with them as they march boldly into the 21st Century\*\*. ---
**Author:** ![AZCowboy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/97f17d/32.png) [@AZCowboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AZCowboy)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/6 "2003-03-23T19:02:48Z")
Perhaps Pakistan could offer an interesting case study. > [@](#): > > _[Trade Union and Democratic Rights in Pakistan, July 2002](http://members.tripod.com/~INDIA_RESOURCE/tupakistan.html)_ > While it is true that India’s political parties often fail to represent the interests of the common people, and more often than not, either bend to pressures from local business interests or neo-liberal elites more beholden to the agenda of Western imperial powers than Indian concerns, the answer is clearly not to replace India’s democratic constitution with a constitution derived from medieval theocracy, or to replace India’s elected government by a military administration. Neither can anyone seriously argue that Pakistan’s military leadership is any less immune from Western imperialist pressures, or acts in the interests of Pakistan’s poor and disenfranchised masses. If anything, it is quite the reverse, and that is why the US Pentagon and CIA have always preferred Pakistan’s military regimes to Pakistan’s democratically elected governments. Sorry, it is a Tripod site, so there are a couple of pop-ups. ---
**Author:** ![bo989](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@bo989](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bo989)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2003, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/7 "2003-03-23T20:00:14Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Ryan\_Liam \* > Will the Domino effect of **liberlaisation** happen in the Middle East? That was typo, right? I’ll assume you meant **colonization**. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Milum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ea666f/32.png) [@Milum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Milum)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2003, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/8 "2003-03-24T02:29:33Z")
**Colonization!!!** Durnit **bo989** , we’re not perfect. We should have granted you Canadians statehood years ago before you became string-jerked puppets of your own namby-pamby government. Now it seems too late. Yall go back and civilize yourselves and learn to hold your intemperate tongues and then come back as good neighbors or we’ll give you back to your good buddies the french. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Kempis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kempis/32/19248_2.png) [@Kempis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kempis)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2003, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/9 "2003-03-24T04:29:00Z")
Turkey is an Islam-majority country which is a part of NATO. Would you call that place colonized? They’ve been acting pretty uppity for being slaves to the USA. -k ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2003, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-domino-effect-of-liberlaisation-happen-in-the-middle-east/163572/10 "2003-03-24T08:33:21Z")
There was an [article](http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fg-domino14mar14001443,1,2644504.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dfrontpage) at the _Los Angeles Times_ that touched on this issue; apparently, there’s a classified State Department report that looked at Gerge W. Bush’s oft-touted “Iraqi domino” theory, and concluded that it was highly unlikely to ever happen. The _Times_ requires registration to read the article, and I’m not entirely certain if it will be availalble as a free online read for much longer. In case it doesn’t, here are a few excerpts: > [@](#): > > **Democracy Domino Theory "Not Credible"** > WASHINGTON – A classified State Department report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence officials familiar with the document. > > The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq. > > …Some officials said the classified document reflects views that are widely held in the State Department and CIA but that those holding such views have been muzzled in an administration eager to downplay the costs and risks of war. > > One intelligence official said the CIA has not been asked to produce its own analysis on the domino question. I’m personally disappointed that this news hasn’t gotten more exposure in the mainstream media. But then again, given how much CNN and Fox are being nothing more than mouthpieces for the Presidency these days, perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised.