# Will the Iraqi Kurds declare independence? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495 "2014-06-24T00:09:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/1 "2014-06-24T00:09:23Z")
[The Kurds have taken the city of Kirkuk](http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/6/12/iraq-kirkuk-isil.html), which they have always considered their capital, and its oilfields. [The Iraqi government appears to have accepted that as a _fait accompli_](http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/18/uk-iraq-kurdistan-oil-idINKBN0ET29K20140618), while still protesting the Kurds have no right to sell oil independents, but they’re doing that anyway, to Turkey and now [to Israel](http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/06/23/iraqs-kurds-sell-oil-to-israel-move-closer-to-independence/). Some are speculating they will soon declare independence, and if they do there’s probably nothing the Iraqi government, in its present straits, can do to stop them; besides, it needs them as an ally against ISIS. If so, how will the Turks react? The largest part of [Kurdistan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan) is within their territory, and the Turkish government (like the Iraqi, Iranian and Syrian governments) have always been implacably hostile to the idea of an independent Kurdish state anywhere in the region, for fear it will encourage their own Kurds to join it. OTOH, you know, oil. And the Iranians also want all the allies they can get against ISIS, they don’t want a radical Sunni theocracy on the borders of their radical Shi’a theocracy. Meanwhile, the Syrian Kurds, who have militias active in Syria’s civil war, [have been pushing for regional autonomy](http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/13/syrian-kurds-inchtowardsautonomy.html). It is possible they’ll raise the stakes to outright independence if they have a larger Kurdish state to unite with. I’m for an independent Kurdistan, I suppose, the Kurds are always going to make trouble until they get one, and it could be a useful buffer state in the region. Of course, it would have all the problems of a landlocked country with possibly hostile neighbors. But, you know, oil. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/2 "2014-06-24T02:24:44Z")
However, in the fight with ISIS, [they do have a supply problem.](http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/0619/Facing-ISIS-threat-Kurdish-fighters-favor-US-air-power) > [@](#): > > While the dream of a Kurdish homeland keeps spirits high in the trenches, there is also a growing concern that supplies and ammunition could run out unless Baghdad or the West steps in. > > “We are in it 100 percent but wars are not fought without ammunition,” says Polat Talabani, the commander of the counterterrorism unit with 160 commandos who received US Delta Force training in 2003. His men, Mr. Talabani estimates, can only hold out for two weeks in Khanaqin with current supplies. > > **More weapons than the Army** > > Although oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan has the money to purchase weapons and ammunition, such transactions are subject to Baghdad’s approval. And right now, Iraq’s central government is too distracted by the threat of ISIS to key cities and facilities, such as the oil refinery in Baiji that was contested in recent days. > > Kurdish security officials estimate that ISIS fighters have seized enough Humvees, Howitzers, tanks, sniper rifles, and ammunition to keep on fighting for another year. “[ISIS] has more weapons now than the central government in Baghdad,” claims Bahjay, adding that the militant group captured two helicopters. > > US-led air strikes, these officials argue, would throw ISIS off its tracks. “It is not a matter of us trying to get the West involved in this war but we are fighting a war with ISIS. We cannot afford to lose,” says Mr. Talabani. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/3 "2014-06-24T02:57:44Z")
How wise/clever are they? Might they get better results by playing it coy and cagey, always on the verge of declaring statehood, but never quite, so as to wring the maximum concessions from Turkey? It’s a scaled-down version of the Palestinian problem: if they declare statehood, with the borders they want, they antagonize Turkey, but if the declare statehood with borders that other countries could accept, they deny themselves a whole lot of land they really want. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/4 "2014-06-24T03:21:04Z")
> [@csmonitor.com via BrainGlutton](#): > > Although oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan has the money to purchase weapons and ammunition, such transactions are subject to Baghdad’s approval. And right now, Iraq’s central government is too distracted by the threat of ISIS to key cities and facilities I can’t make sense of this at all. It’s not as though ISIS are putting suppressing fire inbetween government officials and their laptops. They can make decisions whatever’s going on, and if they’re focused on the threat, well, this is a very easy thing they can do to help reduce the threat. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/5 "2014-06-24T03:23:55Z")
I hope they do. It will be good to have one state in the region that is reasonably friendly to Israel. Kurds and Jews were never enemies (yes, there were some bellicose Jumblatt utterings, but that guy can be excused for having to deal with Lebanon politics). ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/6 "2014-06-24T03:24:56Z")
Flatout declaring statehood from a crumbling/weak central government didn’t work for [Somaliland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somaliland); 23 years later they still are unrecognized. The only way for full recognition (not the half measures that Taiwan/Kosovo/NCyprus have) is to have the larger country you’re ceding from, acknowledge your sovereignty. In other words, they need Baghdad’s blessing or they will become a non/half-state pariah. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/7 "2014-06-24T04:18:17Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I hope they do. It will be good to have one state in the region that is reasonably friendly to Israel. Kurds and Jews were never enemies (yes, there were some bellicose Jumblatt utterings, but that guy can be excused for having to deal with Lebanon politics). Jumblatt is Druze, not Kurdish. And Israel has always had a good relationship with the Kurds. It’s part of a decades-long policy to nurture relations with non-Arab minorities in the Middle East, which led to Israel’s former friendships with Iran and Turkey, among others ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/8 "2014-06-24T04:28:29Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Jumblatt is Druze, not Kurdish. Look it up. Jumblatt is a Kurd. And a Druze. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/9 "2014-06-24T04:34:28Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > How wise/clever are they? Might they get better results by playing it coy and cagey, always on the verge of declaring statehood, but never quite, so as to wring the maximum concessions from Turkey? > > It’s a scaled-down version of the Palestinian problem . . . Scaled **up;** there is much more territory and population at stake. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/10 "2014-06-24T05:25:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Scaled **up;** there is much more territory and population at stake. I knew I should have been more specific: scaled down in terms of the urgency in terms of worldwide interest. The declaration, tomorrow, of Palestine as a state would be a major upheaval. The declaration of Kurdistan would be much less dramatic in overall world interest. My fault for not being clear on what dimension I was scaling. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/11 "2014-06-24T14:21:48Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I knew I should have been more specific: scaled down in terms of the urgency in terms of worldwide interest. > > The declaration, tomorrow, of Palestine as a state would be a major upheaval. The declaration of Kurdistan would be much less dramatic in overall world interest. > > My fault for not being clear on what dimension I was scaling. Perhaps, but it would be a development of far greater (and direr) importance to the Iraqi, Iranian, Turkish and Syrian governments. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/12 "2014-06-24T14:54:28Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I knew I should have been more specific: scaled down in terms of the urgency in terms of worldwide interest. > > The declaration, tomorrow, of Palestine as a state would be a major upheaval. The declaration of Kurdistan would be much less dramatic in overall world interest. > > My fault for not being clear on what dimension I was scaling. Define ‘Kurdistan’. ‘Greater Kurdistan’ includes parts of Turkey, Syria and Iran. That’s why they tend to have opposed an independent Kurdistan. Thin end of an unpleasant nationalist wedge. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/13 "2014-06-24T15:53:05Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Look it up. Jumblatt is a Kurd. And a Druze. Well…probably better to say he claims Kurdish ancestry. His family has been in the Chouf for many generations and seem pretty thoroughly Arabized. The PSP were definitely pan-Arabists in an earlier generation. Splitting hairs maybe, but while there _are_ some Kurds in Lebanon, I don’t believe there are many in Walid Jumblatt’s constituency. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/14 "2014-06-24T16:12:31Z")
Is Turkey afraid the Kurds are going to keep a chunk of Turkey if they declare independence or that all of the Kurds are going to move out of Turkey? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/15 "2014-06-24T16:31:26Z")
> [@YogSosoth](#): > > Is Turkey afraid the Kurds are going to keep a chunk of Turkey if they declare independence or that all of the Kurds are going to move out of Turkey? The former, I’m sure; it’s the territory they want to keep, the people are a headache, and anyway there are at least 12 million Kurds in Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan has no room for them all. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/16 "2014-06-24T18:51:11Z")
[John Kerry’s trying to talk them out of declaring independence, apparently.](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kerry-to-urge-kurds-not-to-give-up-on-iraq/) ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/17 "2014-06-24T20:11:31Z")
For some reason, it seems to have escaped almost everyone’s notice, but Turkey has recently become much more friendly to the Iraqi Kurds than it has been. > [@](#): > > “The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of entity they are living in,” a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party told a Kurdish news outlet. > **[How Turkey Went From Guaranteeing Iraq's Territorial Integrity to Hastening...](https://time.com/2898883/iraq-turkey-kurd-isis/)** > > Ankara changed from from enemy to ally of Iraq's Kurds, who already have a little nation of their own in north > [@](#): > > The military posture of northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government to defend itself against advancing Islamist rebels spotlights a reversal in one of the region’s most toxic relationships: Between Turkey and the Kurds. [http://online.wsj.com/articles/conflict-shows-new-closer-turk-iraqi-kurdish-ties-1402689691](http://online.wsj.com/articles/conflict-shows-new-closer-turk-iraqi-kurdish-ties-1402689691) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/18 "2014-06-24T20:24:02Z")
Yeah, Flyer, I’ve brought it up a few times that Turkey and Kurdistan have been doing some big business. The kurds just completed an oil pipeline to a Turkish port city. You quote above though is pretty illustrative that Turkey is not that worried about an independent Kurdistan. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/19 "2014-06-24T22:41:22Z")
I don’t know if they will, but it would at least make some sense. The borders of these countries don’t really make any sense now- they were drawn by basically colonial powers who wanted to keep the place under control. If the whole area gets repartitioned, even by these means, well, I doubt it will make anyone like us or each other much more than they did before, but at least it will have a greater perceived legitimacy than what exists now. The factions and the geography will (sort of) line up, and will be the result of negotiations or wars between the resident parties. Brilliant! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495/20 "2014-06-25T23:33:12Z")
[There have been a lot of changes recently in the Turkish government’s relations with Turkey’s Kurds.](http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/game-changer-syria-iran-and-kurdish-independence) Not necessarily portending independence, Erdogan has a Turkish-nationalist base to answer to, but he is trying to make nice with the PKK; maybe they’ll get regional autonomy. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-iraqi-kurds-declare-independence/691495.md?page=2)