I do find myself wondering whether the Kurds might have designs on Mosul. It is Iraq’s second-largest city, on the west bank of the Tigris opposite the ruins of the ancient Assyrian capital of Nineveh, and the capital of Nineveh Province. (And now you can face the keeper of the Bridge of Death and answer he these questions three!) It is majority-Arab with a substantial Kurdish minority, and on the western edge of what is generally considered Kurdistan. ISIS now holds it. Probably the ISIS cannot be defeated in northern Iraq unless the Kurds and nobody else drive them out of Mosul – and once they have it, would they give it up? By size and location it would probably make an even better capital for them than Kirkuk. I have seen both cities described as what the Kurds consider their “Jerusalem.”
Why would they even bother, they’d spend more time consolidating what they’ve recently acquired. I doubt highly the Kurdish leadership has the appetite to take control of a city which is where the majority of the former Saddam officer corps came from, and is Arab, and has been a nightmare to control ever since 2003 by whoever was in charge.
Trying to kill Kurdish independence with kindness, just like the UK tried to do with Ireland before 1922.
But if the Kurds don’t drive ISIS out of Mosul, who else can? They’re the only other military presence in northern Iraq.
“Because they can” isn’t a great reason. Why should they stick their neck out like that rather than just let the Arabs fight each other? ISTM they are better off saving their bullets and their soldier’s lives to defend the border they have established.
But “because no one else can” is. The Kurds don’t want an ISIS state surviving on their border any more than anyone else does.
In addition to the above, perhaps because they want Mosul – once again, it’s the Other Kurdish Jerusalem.
No, it’s not. This is a delicate newborn state. A little early for them to take on the regional policeman role.Beef up defenses is name of the game here.
Even if they did think it was in their interest to smack down ISIL they wouldn’t do it now at their height. They would still want to wait for the infighting between Sunni groups to start in earnest.
One obvious reason the Peshmerga will fight them is that ISIS has already spilled Kurdish blood. Another is that the Arab fight affects their economic well being. The Arab fighting in Baijii at the refinery has caused long lines at the pump in Kurdish territory.
I think the only thing holding Kurds back right now is a lack of armor and artillery and short supplies of ammo. And of course the lack of effective US style air support.
The air support is being put into place as see ISIS momentum being stopped across Iraq.
Arab terrorists can go fight it out in the middle of the Syrian desert but the Kurds don’t want them fighting it out in Mosul so the half million refugees in Kurdish areas can go back home and live in peace with their neighbors.
ISF can roll and fly back into northern Iraq.
The Iraqi army is huge. if only 25% of it is effective and managed properly with air cover and targeted bombardments they can eventually do it with moderate Sunni tribes and the Kurds on the ground can mop things up and provide security after the terrorists have been sent packing or to the grave.
http://en.shiapost.com/2014/06/27/iraqi-forces-recapture-district-in-tikrit/
http://en.shiapost.com/2014/06/27/diyala-almost-fully-cleansed-of-takfiris-army-regains-control/
Muqtada al Sadr had inclusive role in all this:
Your willingness to expend Kurdish lives to save Iraq is quite courageous.
What? I have no influence over what they’ll do or not do, I’m just trying to predict.
Not yet, it isn’t; it is still the KRG, with the same organization it has had since the Kurdish Civil War was settled.
It’s an independent government in every way of operational consequence, even without a flag/anthem/UN seat/World Cup side/airline. If the rest of the world is faced with the possibility of a theocracy controlling that area and its oil instead, then those other things can happen pretty quickly. But Kurdistan as a nation if not yet a state is real, and Turkey is wise to try to mend fences and do business deals with it. It might even take some pressure off their internal problem, if Ankara stops trying to suppress it and permits more local autonomy, perhaps using Spain’s treatment of the Basque region as a model.
And if the Kurdish question goes away, Turkey can afford to improve its human-rights record and might just get that EU membership. Then they’ll be ideally positioned to be what they want to be economically: The crossroads and entrepot between Europe and the MENA.
That was really directed at NFBW and I know he isn’t in charge of anything. I do find it bizarre that everyone calling for the Kurds to jump into the middle of this fight acknowledge that they don’t have a great ammo supply but it would still be awesome for them to try. The Kurdish leadership has been as plain as they can frigging be that they have no intention of pushing out past their borders.
Maybe eventually. More immediately, they’d be more like the front lines than a crossroads.
That’s why I’m convinced Turkey will experience it’s own Vietnam eventually by turning a blind eye to this.
We’re you were directing your comment to this?
"One obvious reason the Peshmerga will fight them is that ISIS has already spilled Kurdish blood. Another is that the Arab fight affects their economic well being. The Arab fighting in Baijii at the refinery has caused long lines at the pump in Kurdish territory. "
Its bizarre that what I wrote could be read as ‘calling the Kurds to jump into the fight’ while low on ammunition. Or that I Have a willingness to expend Kurdish lives to save Iraq.
Where did that come from? ISIS is no longer advancing toward Baghdad. The Peshmerga does not appear required to save Iraq. The point is that Kurds have an interest to take the fight to ISIS however they decide its necessary.
And team up with that jolly fellow, Muqtada al Sadr. That idea makes the neocon argument look like pure genius.
“How they decide it’s necessary” is defending their new border, not " taking the fight to ISIL" as you’ve alternatively called for or said is already happening.