# Will the Oakland Raiders go 0-16? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [September 15, 2006, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887 "2006-09-15T21:22:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/21 "2006-09-18T16:51:49Z")
[QUOTE=kevja] Will the Oakland Raiders go 0-16? Probably not. But I’d love to see it happen. [/QUOTE] Ditto (speaking as an Oakland resident but a Charger fan 🙂 ) ---
**Author:** ![vibrotronica](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a9a28c/32.png) [@vibrotronica](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vibrotronica)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/22 "2006-09-18T17:08:47Z")
Looks like the Titans are going to give them a run for their money. I had the game on TV yesterday while doing other things, but I did manage to hear the announcer say at halftime “I think that’s the worst half of football I’ve ever seen in the NFL.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/23 "2006-09-18T17:20:30Z")
Sad. I was a big fan during their 70’s/early 80’s heyday, but this is completely beyond the pale. Al Davis has clearly lost whatever genius brain cells he used to have. Now that I have a hometown team (Jags) the Raiders’ loss of prestige doesn’t bother me as much as it might, but it still blows. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/24 "2006-09-18T17:29:43Z")
Oakland plays Cleveland, Houston and the Jets and has a 50/50 chance of beating each of those teams, so their expected wins stands at 1.50. At least Oakland still has the Raiderettes, who are always worth watching. Browns and Jets fans don’t have pretty cheerleaders to drool over 😃 ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/25 "2006-09-18T17:45:37Z")
[QUOTE=SenorBeef] The Browns had a bad first game, but we’re not in the same league as the Texans and the Jets. Little doubt we’re going to beat Oakland, whereas those two teams just might. [/QUOTE] I may have to take this back. How the hell have we _regressed_ after having had such a good offseason and continuity of coaching? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/26 "2006-09-18T18:08:17Z")
28 - 6 This week. The over/under for the Raiders first TD of the year is week 5. The Raiders took some injuries this week. Robert “Turnstyle” Gallery and Brooks both went down. Both injuries would seem to _improve_ the team, however. The Titans look really bad too, but the Raiders don’t play them this year. ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/27 "2006-09-18T18:20:45Z")
Q: (possibly rhetorical, not sure if there is a definitive answer) Just how big of a dick is Jeff George, that the team would choose to go with the three losers they currently have at QB than add him to the roster? ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/28 "2006-09-18T18:24:25Z")
They have Cleveland (0-2), Houston (0-2), Arizona (1-1), KC (0-2) at home. Even if they ONLY had a 50-50 chance to win each of those, that puts them at a 1 in 16 chance to go 0-16. They have games with San Fran and St Lou. No great shakes, but when you add it all up, it looks unlikely they can’t pull 1 out. It’s hard – after seeing them play for two weeks – to imagine that they could win 4 though. I’d worry a lot more about going 0-16 if I were the Texans. ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/29 "2006-09-18T18:27:03Z")
Agree it will be hard- they at least have a decent defense to hold the scores down. The Texans and Titans, on the other hand, look totally inept on both sides of the ball- don’t be fooled by the Texans point total against the Colts! ---
**Author:** ![Mayo\_Speaks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mayo\_Speaks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mayo_Speaks)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/30 "2006-09-18T18:31:43Z")
Assuming they have a 25% chance to win in the Cleveland, Houston, and Jets games and only a 10% chance against everyone else, the chances of them going winless (since there’s only 14 games left) is P(no wins) = (1-.25)^3 \* (1-.10)^(14-3) = 13% EG, they’d be a 7.5:1 underdog to go 0-16. The expected number of wins is Predicted wins = .25_3 + .10_(14-3) = 1.85 So using my model (which is probably a worst case scenario) we predict a 2-14 season for Oakland. Using a more realistic model (40% against Cleveland, Houston, NY, 20% against anyone else), the probability of 0 wins is P(no wins) = (1-.40)^3 \* (1-.20)^(14-3) = 1.85% EG, they’d be a 53:1 underdog to go 0-16. The expected number of wins is Predicted wins = .40_3 + .20_(14-3) = 3.4 And since Art Shell and Aaron Brooks are collaborating on this, I’ll take the under a make a final prediction for 3-13. I leave you with a [link](http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060915) to Bill Simmons’s column about how horrible Art Shell is. Enjoy! The contents of this post brought to you by IE360: Probability and statistics for engineers, ESPN, and viewers like you. ---
**Author:** ![Iggins](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Iggins](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggins)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/31 "2006-09-18T20:44:54Z")
If the Niners can go 4-12 last year, the Raiders should get 2 wins this year. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/32 "2006-09-18T20:48:58Z")
[QUOTE=Trunk] They have Cleveland (0-2), Houston (0-2), Arizona (1-1), KC (0-2) at home. Even if they ONLY had a 50-50 chance to win each of those, that puts them at a 1 in 16 chance to go 0-16. [/QUOTE] You say “ONLY” as if you were being conservative. You’re not. You’re assuming that they’re not the underdog in any of those games. Their chances to win each of those games is less than 50%, except perhaps the Texans. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/33 "2006-09-18T21:18:58Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Lance Murdoch] 28 - 6 This week. The over/under for the Raiders first TD of the year is week 5. [/QUOTE] I wonder if Moss will dismember Brooks in week four. Even the saddest teams in recent NFL history have managed to win ONE game. They get very determined and their opponents overlook them, which probably helps. I don’t think the Raiders will do it. By the way, they’re not the only team in the league that hasn’t managed a touchdown so far. Tampa Bay got shut out in week one and put up all of three points in week two. Nobody expects them to go 0-16 because they can play defense, but that’s sad. ---
**Author:** ![Morbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morbo/32/389_2.png) [@Morbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/34 "2006-09-18T21:23:39Z")
[QUOTE=Snooooopy] Brooks tried to throw up, but his vomit was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. [/QUOTE] Oh man. Sublime. This is the first time in my 4000+ posting history that I’m making a “spit out coffee need to clean monitor” post. Feel free to look it up. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2006, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/35 "2006-09-18T21:23:43Z")
[QUOTE=NoClueBoy] I think Aaron Brooks just got sacked _again!_ [/QUOTE] In Oakland, Raiders sack you! …no..wait a minute…no they don’t…hm… ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2006, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/36 "2006-09-19T01:07:56Z")
I heard all the hype about how LaMont Jordan was going to be a fantasy stud this year now that Art Shell has brought back the old school mentality to Oakland. He was as high as top 10 on many fantasy big boards so I took him in the second round. I doubt I’ll even play him again this season. It’s SOOOOO worth it though… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2006, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/37 "2006-09-19T03:02:38Z")
Man oh man, I didn’t realize they were THAT bad. The Ravens looked like they were beating a practice squad. I am pretty sure Oakland could win 6 games. In the CFL. That’s an 18-game schedule, too. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2006, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/38 "2006-09-20T06:21:45Z")
[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever] In Oakland, Raiders sack you! …no..wait a minute…no they don’t…hm… [/QUOTE] You mean: “In Oakland, Raiders sack themselves!” ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/39 "2006-10-09T18:14:51Z")
They lost to the otherwise winless Browns at home last week and now they got murdered by the pretty bad 49ers. Go! Go! Go! ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2006, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887/40 "2006-10-09T18:21:00Z")
Trade Moss for a quarterback, now, and they might win one. It almost makes me cry seeing the best receiver probably ever catching 2 passes for 12 yards. Get this man to someone who can get him the ball!! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-oakland-raiders-go-0-16/372887.md?page=3)