# Will the other debates make any real difference?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [October 12, 2012, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488 "2012-10-12T04:30:58Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/1 "2012-10-12T04:30:58Z")
I was pondering this earlier in the shower. There’s an argument to be made that the other two Presidential debates can only be lost by Obama, not won (Romney, I think, could win or lose either).
The reason this is a possibility in my mind is based on a post in another thread, which pondered the old adage “you never get a second chance to make a first impression.” Despite being the President for four years, Obama didn’t make a very good one, and those kinds of things stick. Romney, OTOH, came off very well, almost independently of Obama’s performance, which did him a world of good.
First impressions like that are hard, if not impossible, to dislodge, especially with the excitement of the “first.” Will anyone pay any attention to the other debates (in terms of voters, I mean)? Does either man have any shot at improving their “rep” any further?
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### Author:  [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/2 "2012-10-12T05:58:10Z")
It’s possible that they will make a difference, if Obama does well.
There is some precedence. [In 2004](http://prespredict.com/elec2004.html), Bush had a disastrous first debate, and his chances of winning dropped significantly after that. But after doing better in the following debates, he was back to the same position he was before the first debate.
So, we’ll have to wait and see how Obama does in the second and third debates. His performance in the first debate was perplexingly bad.
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/3 "2012-10-12T06:24:31Z")
The 2nd debate is a townhall debate. Neither man is very good at relating to average people, so don’t expect a Clinton-caliber performance there. Nor is it a good place for Obama to hit Romney on most of the things he’s attacked him on. Negativity doesn’t fly at these things.
The 3rd debate is foreign policy. again, not a good venue for Obama to attack Romney, and he’s going to have to defend his handling of the Benghazi attack. Biden wanted to change the subject very quickly when it came up.
Obama can’t win either debate decisively. The best he can hope for is to win by a little bit at each one. But does that really do anything for him? No. He’s the President. All Romney had to do was establish credibility and he did that. from here on, a draw is as good as a win for Romney.
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### Author:  [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/4 "2012-10-12T06:36:21Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Obama can’t win either debate decisively.
This is pure speculation. Sure, if the Obama of the first debate shows up, he’s screwed. But if a much more prepared and energized Obama shows up, we can’t know how it will turn out, especially if it so happens that Romney has a bad day or makes a big gaffe.
Not that he will for sure win either debate decisively, but it’s way too early to say “Obama can’t win either debate decisively”.
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/5 "2012-10-12T06:38:56Z")
How would he do that? The first debate was a fairly open ended affair. The next two are much more restrictive for the candidates. Obama’s campaign has been based primarily on attacking Romney’s character. How is he going to do that effectively in a townhall setting and then a foreign policy debate?
Unless he comes up with a new strategy, I don’t see how he can get much more than a pyrrhic victory.
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### Author:  [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/6 "2012-10-12T06:55:38Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Obama’s campaign has been based primarily on attacking Romney’s character.
I dispute this.
> [@](#):
>
> How is he going to do that effectively in a townhall setting and then a foreign policy debate?
>
> Unless he comes up with a new strategy, I don’t see how he can get much more than a pyrrhic victory.
I think that in the first debate, it’s not so much that Romney won it, but that Obama lost it (by his terrible performance).
These debates are such highly-orchestrated and polished events that, as you mention, it’s unlikely that one candidate can dominate the debate and wow the audience with his great debate skills and awesome ideas on the future of the country.
What’s more likely in a debate with a clear “winner” is one candidate does well, according to plan, and the other candidate does terribly.
So, even if the debate format for the next two debates doesn’t leave much room for one candidate to dominate by pure excellence on their part, there is always the chance that they can dominate because the other candidate messes up (in any of a myriad of ways).
That’s why I said that it’s way too early to say “Obama can’t win either debate decisively”.
_Nitpic_: I think you meant something like “I don’t see how he can get much more than a \*\*token \*\*victory”, given the definition of [pyrrhic victory](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory).
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/7 "2012-10-12T07:02:34Z")
Well, to determine if Obama can win, first we have to determine what his goals are for the next two debates.
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### Author:  [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/8 "2012-10-12T11:08:50Z")
> [@Leaper](#):
>
> I was pondering this earlier in the shower. There’s an argument to be made that the other two Presidential debates can only be lost by Obama, not won (Romney, I think, could win or lose either).
>
> The reason this is a possibility in my mind is based on a post in another thread, which pondered the old adage “you never get a second chance to make a first impression.” Despite being the President for four years, Obama didn’t make a very good one, and those kinds of things stick. Romney, OTOH, came off very well, almost independently of Obama’s performance, which did him a world of good.
>
> First impressions like that are hard, if not impossible, to dislodge, especially with the excitement of the “first.” Will anyone pay any attention to the other debates (in terms of voters, I mean)? Does either man have any shot at improving their “rep” any further?
He definitely messed up with alot of first impressions in the first debate. He still has a chance to perform for the 47% in hopes that too many of them don’t jump ship.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/9 "2012-10-12T11:29:27Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> The 3rd debate is foreign policy. again, not a good venue for Obama to attack Romney, and he’s going to have to defend his handling of the Benghazi attack. Biden wanted to change the subject very quickly when it came up.
You’ve made this assertion repeatedly, as if you think Romney can milk “But they didn’t _saaaaaaaaaaaay_ it was terrorism” for 90 minutes. Last night’s debate poked several gaping holes in the Romney/Ryan foreign policy plan. Ryan was unable to state what he’d do differently in Afghanistan or Iran, tripped over his own words when he said a humanitarian crisis wasn’t good enough justification for “boots on the ground” after saying Obama wasn’t doing enough in Syria, and made himself look like a fool when he accused Obama of turning his back on Israel. These are things Obama will be able to take Romney to task over.
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### Author:  [@JLRogers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JLRogers)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/10 "2012-10-12T11:36:03Z")
No. The far right (FNC) and center right (CNN) news channels will give the win to Romney unless he literally soils his pants at the podium. The others will, at best, pretend that it was a toss-up. Consider the VP debate as a model: Biden spent 90 minutes beating Ryan down to the point where he could only blurt talking points, but somehow it became a Ryan win on the former networks and a push on the others.
And yes, the coverage is what matters. Most people rely on the news to tell them what happened rather than research the issues and watch the debate critically.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/11 "2012-10-12T11:43:20Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> The 3rd debate is foreign policy. again, not a good venue for Obama to attack Romney, and he’s going to have to defend his handling of the Benghazi attack. Biden wanted to change the subject very quickly when it came up.
Biden was pretty effective in pointing out how unpresidential it was for Romney to start dancing on the corpses before they were even cold or identified.
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### Author:  [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/12 "2012-10-12T11:47:32Z")
[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15579995&postcount=633](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15579995&postcount=633)
> [@](#):
>
> Romney’s a relatively strong debater, Obama’s a relatively weak one.
>
> Obama tries hard to do better, and does, but is still bested by Romney, who’s riding a surge of confidence. (A confident, sincere liar is tough beat in the short run. It takes time for people to see through him.) Obama loses all three debates by not being able to produce a definitive victory in any of them.
>
> Advantage Romney, and it’s too close to the election to create any other narrative. The first debate ends up being the last word.
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### Author:  [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/13 "2012-10-12T11:58:07Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> You’ve made this assertion repeatedly, as if you think Romney can milk “But they didn’t _saaaaaaaaaaaay_ it was terrorism” for 90 minutes. Last night’s debate poked several gaping holes in the Romney/Ryan foreign policy plan. Ryan was unable to state what he’d do differently in Afghanistan or Iran, tripped over his own words when he said a humanitarian crisis wasn’t good enough justification for “boots on the ground” after saying Obama wasn’t doing enough in Syria, and made himself look like a fool when he accused Obama of turning his back on Israel. These are things Obama will be able to take Romney to task over.
Not 90 minutes. Only takes 1 minute to land a haymaker. Fact is, they lied about it because the truth didn’t fit the narrative they were trying to sell so close to the election. And they didn’t just tell one lie. They lied about the demonstration, lied about whether it was a terrorist attack, lied about the cause, and lied about whether more security had been asked for. They even managed to mislead about Republicans cutting embassy security.
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### Author:  [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/14 "2012-10-12T12:52:26Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Not 90 minutes. Only takes 1 minute to land a haymaker. Fact is, they lied about it because the truth didn’t fit the narrative they were trying to sell so close to the election. And they didn’t just tell one lie. They lied about the demonstration, lied about whether it was a terrorist attack, lied about the cause, and lied about whether more security had been asked for. They even managed to mislead about Republicans cutting embassy security.
The interesting thing about this response is it’s so very vague that the only way to tell which party you’re talking about is to look at your username.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/15 "2012-10-12T12:55:21Z")
> [@Lightnin](#):
>
> The interesting thing about this response is it’s so very vague that the only way to tell which party you’re talking about is to look at your username.
You’ll have to explain it for me. What does his username mean?
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### Author:  [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/16 "2012-10-12T13:01:54Z")
I think Lightnin meant that the post can only be interpreted correctly once you see that adaher posted it, given what we know about adaher’s views and takes on things. Otherwise, it could as easily be referring to the Republicans’ response to the Bengazhi incident.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/17 "2012-10-12T13:03:31Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#):
>
> I think Lightnin meant that the post makes sense only once you see that adaher posted it, given what we know about adaher’s views and takes on things.
OK, that makes sense. I just couldn’t figure out what the word “adaher” signified, if anything. Yes, we all know his political leanings. But, I’ll say this for him, he’s a pleasant enough fellow.
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### Author:  [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/18 "2012-10-12T13:53:38Z")
My take is that, as a result of the first debate, people’s expectations of Obama’s debate skills are so low going into the next debate, that if he does any better, it’ll be a big positive. It’ll also re-energize the base with less than three weeks to go. Base energy is as critical as wooing the middle at this point; moreso, I dare say.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/19 "2012-10-12T13:57:32Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> Base energy is as critical as wooing the middle at this point; moreso, I dare say.
I agree. There isn’t any middle. We’re about evenly split into two camps, so all these debates do is raise and lower the enthusiasm on each side.
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### Author:  [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)
#### Post date: [October 12, 2012, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-other-debates-make-any-real-difference/637488/20 "2012-10-12T16:58:23Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> I agree. There isn’t any middle. We’re about evenly split into two camps, so all these debates do is raise and lower the enthusiasm on each side.
So you two would say that Obama’s latest polling woes and Romney’s surge is greatly or mostly due to enthusiasm? Some polls found that Obama’s support actually lessened when Romney’s went up, implying switching. I realize you didn’t say that the enthusiasm thing was exclusive to anything else, but I ask anyway.
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