# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 122
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2421 "2014-01-22T20:06:53Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A President who is underwater has no clout. A popular President can make the opposition fear to cross him lest voters retaliate in the next election. Well, I’m certainly not voting for Obama in 2016, I’ll tell you! ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2422 "2014-01-22T20:07:32Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think it’s important to keep in mind (a) that the Teahadist wing is going to keep doing what it’s doing, regardless of election results, as long as the GOP still has some power. (And right now, they’ve still got lots.) And (b) that the intraparty division is largely about tactics rather than goals. I don’t see why. Other than Bob McDonnell v. Creigh Deeds in 2009, where the GOP managed to find its most presentable candidate in some time, and the Dems put up a candidate that was arguably weaker than McAuliffe, the Dems have been winning at the statewide level in Virginia ever since 2006. So given that the GOP put up a bunch of extremists on the ticket, why should they have done better rather than worse than the recent track record?I think that’s an exaggeration. Through the end of September, polls that showed Cooch behind by more than 5% were the exception. I am barely more fond of McAuliffe than you are, but I don’t see it. I expect that if he’d gotten the nomination in 2009, he would have lost narrowly to McDonnell. I can’t see why he should have been toast in 2013. > See above. > > We’ll see. But if they clear the field for Ed Gillespie, they’ve learned the wrong lesson. Gillespie is about as close to a GOP version of McAuliffe as you could find - corporate-friendly Washington insider with minimal connection to Virginia - but one takeaway from 2013 should be that McAuliffe won _despite_ those traits rather than _because_ of them. Another should be that he was able to win _despite_ that handicap, so why should they expect a Republican with the same handicaps to win? > > Not that it matters. Is there a more popular statewide politician in Virginia than Mark Warner? I can’t think of one. Whoever runs against him is toast. There you go **RTFirefly** with your facts, over-ruling my recollections. Good! I think we agree in both broad and narrow strokes. Mark Warner is very popular, and an incumbent, but I think he lacks a deep emotional connection with the voters. For that and other reasons he could lose re-election. It seems past time for VA to revert to its right-leaning ways, but that does depend on how both candidates campaign. Right now it seems like Gillespie is the GOP’s answer to McAulliffe - but who asked _that_ question? McAulliffe wasn’t just some rich carpetbagger, he turned out to have had a good strategy, plenty of funding, the incumbent taken off the board, and an opponent who was every bit as bat-shit crazy as his record indicated. Will Gillespie get past the Teahadists to get the nomination? If so, can he win his base but keep enough of Teh Crazee off of him to appeal to the middle? Can Gillespie make a case why Warner should not be Senator, or why he should be? It’s way to early for answers yet, but how Gillespie and the VA GOP behave in the coming months will show whether the GOP - at least in Virginia - is finally trying to win elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2423 "2014-01-22T21:11:32Z")
Gillespie has no shot at Warner. However, winning isn’t everything, as I’ve tried to point out here. What Gillespie can do is test how well he can degrade Warner’s lead by running ads reminding voters that thanks to him, ACA is the law of the land. Right now it’s a 29-point lead for Warner. If that lead falls 10 points over the next couple of weeks, it may not do Gillespie much good, but a lot of Democratic incumbents can’t afford to lose 10 points in the polls like Warner can. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2424 "2014-01-22T21:21:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What Gillespie can do is test how well he can degrade Warner’s lead by running ads reminding voters that thanks to him, ACA is the law of the land. Yes, let’s hope he does exactly that. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2425 "2014-01-22T21:42:27Z")
Were Republicans trying to talk Medicare down for years after it was passed? Just curious as to whether our perpetually wrong friend is unique or just trudging down a well-worn GOP path. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2426 "2014-01-22T21:47:11Z")
They just nominated a VP candidate who wants to gut Medicare by converting it into a voucher system, allowing the insurance companies to milk it while eliminating coverage guarantees, so, yes. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2427 "2014-01-22T21:58:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think it’s clear that the Dems are the party that really needs to learn some lessons. > > First lesson they need to learn: to stop being a pack of scared rabbits, and take an occasional stand on behalf of the bottom 80%. Second, to paraphrase Napolean, don’t interrupt the Republicans when they are making a mistake (and that’s “when,” not “if”). Third, use the tools of the frickin’ Information Age to _get the message out._ Stop letting ignorant right-wing nutjobs control the narrative. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2014, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2428 "2014-01-22T22:44:37Z")
What’s the problem? I thought demographics made Democratic victory all but inevitable? What’s with this persuasion you’re trying to do, this messaging? I thought Democrats didn’t need to worry about such things anymore? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2014, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2429 "2014-01-23T00:29:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What’s the problem? I thought demographics made Democratic victory all but inevitable? What’s with this persuasion you’re trying to do, this messaging? I thought Democrats didn’t need to worry about such things anymore? Oh no… he’s moved on from just talking about the imaginary fantasy caricature liberals in his own head to thinking that they’re here in the forum, and speaking to him! ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2014, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2430 "2014-01-23T06:52:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Oh no… he’s moved on from just talking about the imaginary fantasy caricature liberals in his own head to thinking that they’re here in the forum, and speaking to him! You noticed that too, huh? :dubious: One wonders why he bothers to post here… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2014, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2431 "2014-01-23T21:57:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What’s the problem? I thought demographics made Democratic victory all but inevitable? What’s with this persuasion you’re trying to do, this messaging? I thought Democrats didn’t need to worry about such things anymore? Doom, certain doom. After all, what are demographics but just a bunch of people? Sure, the Dems have women, latinos, blacks, asians, so on and so forth, but have made no headway in the all important grumpy old white men category! Name me one thing Obama has done in regard to youthful yard intrusion and lawn trampling! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2014, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2432 "2014-01-23T22:29:57Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Name me one thing Obama has done in regard to youthful yard intrusion and lawn trampling! Drone strikes? ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 8:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2433 "2014-01-24T08:53:50Z")
I think **adaher** makes a good point that the Democratic demographic and Electoral College advantages are not enough to lock out a good Republican candidate. He rightly points out that Obama’s approval rating is cause for concern for Democratic candidates and that a 2 term president is almost never hands over the office to another member of his party. But historic trends do not trump the realities of the day. The political reality is that today’s GOP has become so extremist that it faces major obstacles to producing a presidential candidate that appeals to the general electorate. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2434 "2014-01-24T14:02:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What’s the problem? I thought demographics made Democratic victory all but inevitable? What’s with this persuasion you’re trying to do, this messaging? I thought Democrats didn’t need to worry about such things anymore? If you’re responding to **CaptMurdock** , that was his first post in this thread. You’re attributing beliefs to him without any basis. Believe it or not, the non- **adaher** posters in this thread don’t constitute a Borg hive mind. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2435 "2014-01-24T14:04:14Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Second, to paraphrase Napolean, don’t interrupt the Republicans when they are making a mistake (and that’s “when,” not “if”). Third, use the tools of the frickin’ Information Age to _get the message out._ Stop letting ignorant right-wing nutjobs control the narrative. Yeppers. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2436 "2014-01-24T14:33:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Gillespie has no shot at Warner. However, winning isn’t everything, as I’ve tried to point out here. What Gillespie can do is test how well he can degrade Warner’s lead by running ads reminding voters that thanks to him, ACA is the law of the land. Right now it’s a 29-point lead for Warner. If that lead falls 10 points over the next couple of weeks, it may not do Gillespie much good, but a lot of Democratic incumbents can’t afford to lose 10 points in the polls like Warner can. [According to Rasmussen](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html), Warner’s lead is down to 14 - _OMG, he’s lost 15 points already in just a week!_ On a calmer note, that 29-point lead is from a Roanoke College poll. As I’ve been watching the polls for Virginia over the past couple of years (President and Senator in 2012, Governor in 2013), I’ve noticed that Roanoke College’s poll results tend to be all over the place. I don’t know what they’re doing wrong methodologically, but their survey design is definitely screwy somewhere, somehow. If you look at [RCP’s list of polls for the governor’s race last year](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/va/virginia_governor_cuccinelli_vs_mcauliffe_vs_sarvis-4111.html), Roanoke’s at both extremes, with the only poll favoring Cooch (by 6, even!) and the second most pro-McAuliffe poll, showing him up by 15 in late October. If you’re looking at Virginia politics, just filter out any Roanoke College polls, and you’ll be better off. In the Senate race this year, that leaves us a Christopher Newport U. (Randall Munroe’s alma mater :)) poll, which shows Warner with a 20-point lead, and the aforementioned Ras poll. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2437 "2014-01-24T14:39:39Z")
> [@2sense](#): > > I think **adaher** makes a good point that the Democratic demographic and Electoral College advantages are not enough to lock out a good Republican candidate. I wouldn’t have a problem with a good Republican candidate, for any office. But that is someone a lot closer to the center than any of the current crop. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2438 "2014-01-24T15:23:53Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What Gillespie can do is test how well he can degrade Warner’s lead by running ads reminding voters that thanks to him, ACA is the law of the land. No Pub is going to get any fresh traction by running **against** the ACA this year, **adaher.** ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2439 "2014-01-24T15:25:07Z")
Besides which, the Republicans do have a major demographics problem, and if they don’t do anything to address that demographics problem, there will come a time when they really will find it impossible to win. But note the qualifiers in my statement: First, there will come a time when demographics make Republican wins impossible, but that time has not yet come. And second, this depends on the Republicans not doing anything to address their demographic problems. Now, the current Republican party doesn’t seem to be making any efforts in that direction, but it’s sheerest folly to rely on your opponents to continue to make a mistake. And besides which, we also want to win elections right now, not just in the indeterminate future. So, while Democrats should certainly be happy about the demographic trends, we shouldn’t rely entirely upon them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2014, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2440 "2014-01-24T15:34:34Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Besides which, the Republicans do have a major demographics problem, and if they don’t do anything to address that demographics problem, there will come a time when they really will find it impossible to win. > > But note the qualifiers in my statement: First, there will come a time when demographics make Republican wins impossible, but that time has not yet come. And second, this depends on the Republicans not doing anything to address their demographic problems. Now, the current Republican party doesn’t seem to be making any efforts in that direction, but it’s sheerest folly to rely on your opponents to continue to make a mistake. And besides which, we also want to win elections right now, not just in the indeterminate future. So, while Democrats should certainly be happy about the demographic trends, we shouldn’t rely entirely upon them. Then, the Democrats should start looking color-blind at **class** demographics as distinct from ethnic demographics. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=121) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=123)