# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 126
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2501 "2014-01-26T19:30:10Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > No, not “gradually.” Except for rare exceptions, redistricting only happens after the census every ten years. So three chances to redistrict over a period of 30 years is not “gradual”? It has also been a gradual process that Republicans have taken over legislatures and redistricting commissions. > [@](#): > > So were the 2002, 2004, 2006 elections also a fluke? The Dems won a House majority in those too. There’s your gradual. > [@](#): > > But they only get that chance every ten years, after the census. There was no redistricting after the 2008 election. All the districts where the same as when Dems won a majority. Yes, but many of those districts were already Republican-majority districts. The Democrats had a rare chance to win several of them because of other circumstances. But by 2010 those other circumstances had faded. Did you not read my last post? > [@](#): > > Yes, Texas redistricted mid-cycle. But Texas did not turn the House Republican by itself in 2010. Funny how one data point among several offered becomes “by itself.” Gerrymandering is not necessarily an exact science, and it doesn’t produce predictable results every time, but if a single party maintains redistricting power over a period of decades, things add up. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2502 "2014-01-26T21:49:15Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > LOL! > > And then the Republicans tried their damnedest to kill their own plan, and may suffer losses for that. > > Strange how things work out when one side can’t stand to just compromise and govern. The Republicans aren’t that stupid. If they have public opinion on their side enough to repeal, they will. More likely, they’ll be able to repeal as long as existing Obamcare beneficiaries keep their benefits. Unlike Democrats, Republicans will keep a promise: If you like your Obamacare, you can keep it. So I figure we have to find something for oh, half a million people. Shouldn’t be too hard. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2503 "2014-01-26T23:29:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Republicans aren’t that stupid. Yes they are. This is the party that has wasted millions of taxpayers money on (what are we up to? Forty-some?) attempts to repeal Obamacare including a government shutdown that they then tried (and continue to try) to pin on Obama. While Obama is hardly unscathed, the GOP continue to nuke their reputation from orbit. The GOP’s “there must be a pony in this barn somewhere!” approach is based on pure blind ideological optimism that one day theirs will be the right side of the issue, if only by dumb luck. In the meantime they just keep shovelling horseshit. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2504 "2014-01-26T23:34:35Z")
And so, taking **adaher** as an example of the typical Republican, we have THIS week’s answer to the question posed by the OP. That would be “no”. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2505 "2014-01-26T23:35:35Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > So three chances to redistrict over a period of 30 years is not “gradual”? It has also been a gradual process that Republicans have taken over legislatures and redistricting commissions. The loss of the House in 2010 was not gradual. It happened suddenly. There was no gradual loss of seats. Blaming it all on gerrymandering is ridiculous. > [@](#): > > There’s your gradual. Uh, no, the opposite. These are the number of Dems elected to the House each year starting in 2002, the first year of redistricted seats after the 2000 Census: 205 201 232 257 The Dem majority basically GREW after redistricting. There was a gradual INCREASE in the majority. Your claims are simply not supported by the evidence. > [@](#): > > Yes, but many of those districts were already Republican-majority districts. The Democrats had a rare chance to win several of them because of other circumstances. But by 2010 those other circumstances had faded. Did you not read my last post? Rare chance? They built their numbers almost steadily after 2000. There were no circumstances in redistricting that changed enough in 2010 to change the margin. > [@](#): > Funny how one data point among several offered becomes “by itself.” Gerrymandering is not necessarily an exact science, and it doesn’t produce predictable results every time, but if a single party maintains redistricting power over a period of decades, things add up. [/QUOTE] Yet I’ve shown this didn’t happen. You can’t just throw out a hypothesis and not support it. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2506 "2014-01-26T23:36:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Republicans aren’t that stupid. . :):)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2014, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2507 "2014-01-26T23:56:17Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Yes they are. This is the party that has wasted millions of taxpayers money on (what are we up to? Forty-some?) attempts to repeal Obamacare including a government shutdown that they then tried (and continue to try) to pin on Obama. While Obama is hardly unscathed, the GOP continue to nuke their reputation from orbit. The shutdown was stupid. The first part of your statement though is a Democratic talking point that you fell for without demanding a cite from them. There have been over 40 votes pertaining to ACA, a few of which were for full repeal. Others were for changes to ACA, at least one of which passed Congress and was signed by the PResident(The repeal of CLASS). Others got bipartisan support. Democrats just get annoyed when the public is reminded how much they hate ACA. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2508 "2014-01-27T00:00:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats just get annoyed when the public is reminded how much they hate ACA. Why do the public have to be reminded how much they hate ACA? Surely they’d know? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2509 "2014-01-27T00:08:03Z")
Sure they do. But Democrats also work hard to try to make just about anything else the #1 issue, so Republicans have to counter that. AS for what Republicans have learned, they are doing just dandy if the election was today. So apparently they are doing something right. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2510 "2014-01-27T00:10:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > AS for what Republicans have learned, they are doing just dandy if the election was today. So apparently they are doing something right. You are correct in that the absolute best scenario for the GOP is to have the election RIGHTNOW before their candidates have a chance to talk to the media on pretty much any subject. Also, before actual knowledge about the benefits of the ACA have more of a chance to spread through the population. Misinformation, disinformation and just plain made-up lies are the GOP’s last, best hope. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2511 "2014-01-27T00:15:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > AS for what Republicans have learned, they are doing just dandy if the election was today. So apparently they are doing something right. Alas, the election isn’t until November, and when they wake up the morning after with fewer seats than before, I expect the GOP won’t be any closer to answering the OP than today. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2512 "2014-01-27T00:16:24Z")
No, what’s actually been happening with ACA has been the GOP’s best hope. Years of your “misinformation” didn’t move public opinion, but when ACA actually started taking effect the polls started going south for it. Be interesting to see what happens when small business plans get cancelled right before the election. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2513 "2014-01-27T00:17:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > AS for what Republicans have learned, they are doing just dandy if the election was today. So apparently they are doing something right. Mitt Romney was doing equally ‘dandy’ at various times during the campaign. Lately, though, Republicans have not been doing ‘dandy’ on election day. The numbers don’t mean anything until there’s actually voting. The Republicans haven’t been doing anything right in the last few years. [Adaherbot-2000]The Republicans were doing pretty damn good in the 2010 election, wouldn’t you say?[/Adaherbot-2000] Since then pretty much every major decision the party’s made has been laughably wrong. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2514 "2014-01-27T00:17:45Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Alas, the election isn’t until November, and when they wake up the morning after with fewer seats than before, I expect the GOP won’t be any closer to answering the OP than today. If things change due to campaigning, then all that means is that the GOP isn’t as skilled at campaigning. That doesn’t require deep changes in the party’s ideology. And we’ve got a special election in Florida pretty soon that Democrats are supposed to win. Let’s see if they actually do it. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2515 "2014-01-27T00:34:01Z")
[QUOTE=adaher] And we’ve got a special election in Florida pretty soon that Democrats are supposed to win. Let’s see if they actually do it. [/QUOTE] Are you going to disappear for a couple months again if they do? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2516 "2014-01-27T00:35:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sure they do. But Democrats also work hard to try to make just about anything else the #1 issue, so Republicans have to counter that. Utterly laughable, given the Republicans’ Benghazi Tourettes over the past 18 months. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2517 "2014-01-27T00:53:19Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > The loss of the House in 2010 was not gradual. It happened suddenly. There was no gradual loss of seats. Blaming it all on gerrymandering is ridiculous. The number of seats is not gradual, it’s the statistical effect over time that is gradual. All the circumstances came together in 2008 to lift the Democrats over the top to a large majority, but everyone who knew anything at the time was saying that the Democrats were winning a lot of seats that in any other circumstance would be safe Republican seats and they would find it very hard to hold onto them. In 2010, the cumulative effect of weakly held Republican-leaning districts, the loss of the Obama surge, and other political events turned the whole thing around, and after 2010, Republican controlled state governments tightened gerrymandering even more. > [@](#): > > Yet I’ve shown this didn’t happen. You can’t just throw out a hypothesis and not support it. Your data are not relevant to the issue. You’re confusing the weather with the climate. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2518 "2014-01-27T04:21:11Z")
If you’ve looked at any real analysis of Congressional districts, you’ll find that Republicans have a natural majority and that gerrymandering has not increased this majority a great deal. Do you believe that state boundaries are gerrymandered too? It is quite possible, and it is currently fact, that the way Democratic voters are concentrated means more red districts than blue. Democrats should figure out why their appeal is so limited that their voters are so concentrated in certain places, usually big cities. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2519 "2014-01-27T04:23:08Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Utterly laughable, given the Republicans’ Benghazi Tourettes over the past 18 months. That turned out to be a huge tactical mistake. Romney had things going in his favor after that first debate, but suddenly the national conversation got switched to ground more favorable to the Commander-in-Chief, between Benghazi and Sandy. So let’s see what happens in this election. There’s no way the last few weeks won’t be about health care, since cancellation notices for several million employees of small businesses will be due by mid-October. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2014, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/2520 "2014-01-27T04:25:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If you’ve looked at any real analysis of Congressional districts, you’ll find that Republicans have a natural majority and that gerrymandering has not increased this majority a great deal. > > Do you believe that state boundaries are gerrymandered too? It is quite possible, and it is currently fact, that the way Democratic voters are concentrated means more red districts than blue. > > Democrats should figure out why their appeal is so limited that their voters are so concentrated in certain places, usually big cities. This is why I believe the United States should move toward the mixed-member proportional system as practised in Germany to counter the inequalities of voter concentration. And I don’t see why you think the Democrats’ appeal is “limited” when they in fact have the support of the majority of the population. Of course admittedly the Democratic Party can really become the permanent majority party again if it emerged from the wedge issue trap its been stuck in since 1972 and offer Big Ideas again. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=125) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=127)