# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/41 "2012-12-27T17:43:26Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’ll address this later, but that’s pure 20/20 hindsight. There were plenty pf polls during the campaign showing Obama losing to a genrric Republican. Forgive me for once again referencing Nate Silver, but even at Obama’s worst point as far as national polling (right after the 1st debate), Obama was significantly favored to win by Silver. If you looked at the state polls in aggregate over the course of the campaign (as Silver, among others, did), Obama was _always ahead_. ---
**Author:** ![SeldomSeen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ba0ec/32.png) [@SeldomSeen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeldomSeen)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/42 "2012-12-27T17:51:18Z")
The R’s shot themselves in the foot when they got in bed with the religious right. The general (and unfortunately accurate) perception of Republicans as racist, homophobic, misogynistic and anti-intellectual stems mostly from platform planks inserted by the fundamentalist/evangelical crowd. The _other_ Republican agenda - pro-business, lean government, state’s rights, strong defense - still resonates with many. Smartest thing the Repubs could do now is give the boot to the moral majority types, or at least tell them to go sit in the balcony and shut up. SS ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/43 "2012-12-27T17:52:35Z")
> [@](#): > > In fact, I predicted here in this forum as early as July 2011 that the election would be between Obama and Romney, and that it would be close with Obama the winner You were perfectly right except that it really wasn’t that close. If it had been a real nail-biter the Republicans could have been forgiven their complacent hopes, but it wasn’t. It was never in a whole lot of doubt – I stopped worrying at all, right after the 47% remark. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/44 "2012-12-27T18:16:24Z")
> [@SmilinJack](#): > > Well…there has been some interesting comments but as is obvious no one has a clue as to the real reason the Republicans lost and thus no plan to regain the Presidency. > > I will wait a little while and see if anyone can come up with the solution and then I will spell it out…no I do not claim I am all that much more intelligent than anyone on here…I am simply someone with some analytical capability and someone who has studied the facts aka…who voted for Romney and who did not and why. > > The biggest myth going now is that Romney lost because of the mexican vote…the stats prove that not to be the case > > Now with that knowledge someone on here should be able to figure out the mystery of why Romney lost and most importantly the path the Republicans must take if they ever want to regain the White House. Yeah, right. Somebody will say something brilliant, then you’ll grab the baton and say, “You guessed right-_That’s_ my idea!” Just spill, genius. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/45 "2012-12-27T19:04:30Z")
Toss me in as another one who was pretty confident a LONG way out that Obama would win. The Republican’s just don’t have the horses to win a national race following a primary. A lot more would have to go wrong to have wounded Obama that badly. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/46 "2012-12-27T19:04:30Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > But it seems to me if the Democrats can come back from the crushing defeats they suffered against Reagan, then the GOP can come back from this modest defeat. It wasn’t all that modest; Romney wasn’t the only loser. And the problem isn’t “can they”; they can. The problem is will they - and I have doubts about when or if they will. You don’t correct your mistakes by crawling further into a bubble of self delusion, and so far that seems to be what they are doing; crawling even further into the infamous Republican fact repelling bubble. They won’t correct their course if they are unwilling to admit that it needs to be corrected, and that seems to be their present attitude. > [@DigitalC](#): > > They are unlikely to change anything before 2014, when they will likely make gains. Which means they are screwed in 2016. Maybe after that you’ll see serious efforts at demographic changes. You can’t stay a viable party when your voters are dying off and the opposition is crushing with the new voters. That’s a likely scenario IMHO. > [@SeldomSeen](#): > > The R’s shot themselves in the foot when they got in bed with the religious right. The general (and unfortunately accurate) perception of Republicans as racist, homophobic, misogynistic and anti-intellectual stems mostly from platform planks inserted by the fundamentalist/evangelical crowd. The _other_ Republican agenda - pro-business, lean government, state’s rights, strong defense - still resonates with many. Smartest thing the Repubs could do now is give the boot to the moral majority types, or at least tell them to go sit in the balcony and shut up. > SS I agree, but there are problems. [ul] [li]The religious fundies and other extremists don’t seem content to just vote Republcian and take empty promises anymore.[/li] [li]Basic psychology; throwing them out or marginalizing them would be a case of short term pain for long term gain, and people don’t like to do that. They won’t be able to rebrand themselves overnight; if they throw out a major chunk of their base they’ll for a time lose more elections, badly.[/li] [li]They have to worry - what if they throw out that faction, and fail to rebrand themselves? [/li] [li]Can they? The true believers, the extremists have had decades to rise in the Republican power structure, and I’m not at all sure that the more practical ones have the power to shunt the fanatics aside anymore.[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/47 "2012-12-27T19:27:38Z")
For a week after the election, I was reading and listening to all sorts of Republican viewpoints. I think that almost all of them hit upon some aspects of why they lost, but in the end decided that it was the brand, or Romney, or a combination of excuses like Obama’s gifts and the downfall of America that did it, that it really really wasn’t the rejection of the GOP and its xenophobic, misogynistic tone. Even if they, through some indirect way, took responsibility of the GOP’s problems, they doubled down on the belief that ultimately, they didn’t really need to change their message all that much (they really seem to want to be able to hold on to that hate crowd), they just needed to tweak it. Maybe next time don’t let Akin talk about rape, maybe next time stop the shit about self-deportation. What they don’t get is that they’ll never be able to muzzle everybody, and there will always be something that pops up. Stop Akin from talking about rape and someone else will say it, or they’ll say something racist. Don’t talk about illegal immigration and somebody will say something about rape. They can’t help not talking about it. It gives me hope in 2014 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/48 "2012-12-27T19:55:45Z")
> [@SmilinJack](#): > > I think not…and they will continue to lose unless there is a major reform in the party…which unfortunately I do not see happening. > > It is a little too early to say for sure but most likely they will try and become even more politically correct…aka become a imitation of the democratic party…definitely a losing proposition. :rolleyes: Do **you** understand why the Pubs lost this year? Hint: Not because they ran too far to the **left.** ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/49 "2012-12-27T20:35:40Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Forgive me for once again referencing Nate Silver, but even at Obama’s worst point as far as national polling (right after the 1st debate), Obama was significantly favored to win by Silver. If you looked at the state polls in aggregate over the course of the campaign (as Silver, among others, did), Obama was _always ahead_. His system isn’t like a poll. He gives odds. And I don’t think Obama was “always ahead” in the state polls unless you ignored the margins of error. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/50 "2012-12-27T20:35:59Z")
Really, you’d think that part would be clear. ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/51 "2012-12-27T21:04:23Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > The “Mexican vote”? For you pc types…the hispanic vote although there is no such thing as a hispanic. Ah duh! ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/52 "2012-12-27T21:06:15Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > The Republicans’ inability to get Hispanic (not Mexican) voters was a major problem. It wasn’t their only problem, but you don’t lose an election because of one group of people. It’s true that they did very badly with most minority groups, though. If you have your own theory about why they lost, you should post it instead of making people guess what you’re thinking. See above regarding hispanics and then study up…of course you can lose an election with one group of people if that group of people have big numbers…you are not thinking good…stay tuned…I will clue you all in real soon. heh heh ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/53 "2012-12-27T21:07:24Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > His system isn’t like a poll. He gives odds. And I don’t think Obama was “always ahead” in the state polls unless you ignored the margins of error. IIRC, he was always ahead in the state polls _in aggregate_- he might have been behind in, say, FL and OH on a specific day, but in any given period of time if all the polls for the states were averaged together than it showed Obama ahead in the electoral college. The last sentence shows that you may not entirely understand what the margin of error is- if a poll shows Obama ahead by 3, and the margin of error is 4, then the poll still shows an Obama lead- but there’s a small but significant chance that Romney actually has a slight lead. Even a lead of 1 in a poll doesn’t mean a “statistical tie” (a meaningless phrase). ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/54 "2012-12-27T21:11:41Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > The Mexican vote? Not alone, no. There’s the single women vote, the gay vote, the black vote, the young vote, the first time voter vote, the urban vote. Romney lost because the Republican Party only appeals to white rich and white ignorant voters. In truth the Republicans did not need the mexicans, did not need the single women, did not need the sexual deviants, did not need the negroes…but you are partially right …about the rich…but a little more to it…i will get to it eventually. ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/55 "2012-12-27T21:20:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :rolleyes: Do **you** understand why the Pubs lost this year? Hint: Not because they ran too far to the **left.** I know exactly why they lost and I know exactly how they can win…but I will late a little longer to see if anyone else can come up with the truth…it is not rocket science folks…all you have to do is to analyze the election results…which amazingly many(even big wig repubs)seem unable to do…why? Not because they are stupid …simply because the truth does not fit their agenda…and the truth is far too explosive for their political careers. ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/56 "2012-12-27T21:23:21Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Yeah, right. Somebody will say something brilliant, then you’ll grab the baton and say, “You guessed right-_That’s_ my idea!” > Just spill, genius. heh heh…well at least you are thinking…I just want to see if anyone on here is capable of thinking for themselves…I really find it amazing that no one has figured it out. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/57 "2012-12-27T21:27:04Z")
Are you quite sure the SDMB is the place for you, **Smilin’**? There are any number of message boards available, have you given them enough thought? Perhaps a simple Facebook page, where others can voluntarily gather to bask in your radiant awesomeness? ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/58 "2012-12-27T21:28:16Z")
> [@handsomeharry](#): > > They need not have a major reform in the party. Which party ever has??? > > They will not try to become a. more politically correct, nor b. an imitation of the democratic party. > > That is, in as much as politics allow. Both sides seek to appeal to the mainstream of voters, irrespective of what their party platform is composed of. If they have an unpopular position on a controversial subject, they (any party) usually doesn’t change it for a long, long time. The party will seek out some other issue to press. > > In truth, I suspect nobody knows why the Republicans lost, nor ever will, except that the voters that they were counting on did not a. vote, nor b. vote the Republican way. I know exactly why they lost and exactly how they can win…I find it amazing that no one else seems able to. ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/59 "2012-12-27T21:34:13Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > In fact, I predicted here in this forum as early as July 2011 that the election would be between Obama and Romney, and that it would be close with Obama the winner. I never wavered for a second. I also said that Romney would have to win 6-9 states that Obama had won in 2008 and that he would win 2-5. This was completely predictable and I don’t claim any special applause for seeing the blindingly obvious. > > It’s true that the national media, as well as the pundits on both sides, disgraced themselves by insisting it was too close to call, both so that they could write about a horse race and so they could pontificate of the tremendous meaning of whatever took place during the last 24-hour news cycle. Something had to keep eyeballs glued to sites during a supremely boring election whose outcome was known. But I kept telling people over and over that nothing had changed and not to pay attention to the noise. The demographics mattered, not the candidate. > > SmilinJack, if you read the article linked to in post #5, you’ll see that the Republican Establishment already understands just what the problem is: they way-too-successfully branded themselves the party of intolerance. You’ll also see that their constituents don’t want to believe this yet. Nor will they have changed their minds by 2016. I also predicted Obama would win and long before Romney was selected and I can prove it…but to proceed to exactly why the Republicans lost…that is the question…and as I have indicated it has not that much to do with requiring anyone to be super-intelligent to figure it out…if that was enough it would have been figured out by the repub big wigs already…in truth they probably know but they cannot tell…so they go off on these tangents of microscopic analysis i.e. not being able to see the forrest for the trees. ---
**Author:** ![SmilinJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bc8723/32.png) [@SmilinJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmilinJack)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2012, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/60 "2012-12-27T21:36:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Are you quite sure the SDMB is the place for you, **Smilin’**? There are any number of message boards available, have you given them enough thought? Perhaps a simple Facebook page, where others can voluntarily gather to bask in your radiant awesomeness? heh heh…am I making you feel inadequate? Not my intention…and as I said…one does not have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. I do not even know you but I can tell two things about you already. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=4)