# Will The Republicans ever figure out why they lost? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224 "2012-12-26T21:33:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1001 "2013-07-02T17:11:39Z")
**Adaher** : I can easily see Republicans winning 80-90% of the white vote nationwide if Democrats maintain their current course. You are very, very alone in this opinion. It is ludicrous on the face of it. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1002 "2013-07-02T17:24:36Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > **Adaher** : I can easily see Republicans winning 80-90% of the white vote nationwide if Democrats maintain their current course. > > You are very, very alone in this opinion. It is ludicrous on the face of it. Well, he may not necessarily be wrong if projected 300 years from now, when the segment of the electorate considered white will be approximately 40 percent of the nation’s population. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1003 "2013-07-02T17:40:48Z")
[The white population is shrinking](http://www.standard.net/stories/2013/06/13/us-white-population-declined-2012-first-time)in \*absolute \*terms, not just relative ones. Anything the GOP can do to increase its support there is not advancing, just covering a retreat - and there’s no reason to think they can do it by spewing even more hate than they already do. ---
**Author:** ![user\_hostile](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/user_hostile/32/474_2.png) [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1004 "2013-07-02T18:44:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [The white population is shrinking](http://www.standard.net/stories/2013/06/13/us-white-population-declined-2012-first-time)in \*absolute \*terms, not just relative ones. Anything the GOP can do to increase its support there is not advancing, just covering a retreat - and there’s no reason to think they can do it by spewing even more hate than they already do. Thus, I [Ninja’d](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=16381009#post16381009) thee… ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1005 "2013-07-02T18:52:00Z")
Well, goody for you. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1006 "2013-07-02T19:10:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Shrinking, but remaining a majority for our lifetimes. And if it wasn’t for the GOP’s problem with women, we’d already be winning 75% of the white vote and winning every election by a landslide. And if your aunt had balls, she’d be your uncle. Whites made up 80% of the electorate in 2000, in 2016 it could drop to 70%. Your party is ceding 80% of the non-white vote to the Democrats. So in 2016, a Republican candidate would have to win 63% of the white vote to go with 20% of the non-white vote to get a majority. Only in the Reagan landslide years of 1980 and 1984 and the Nixon landslide of 1972 did they get this number. Only 61% of whites voted against Obama. In order for your math to work, the white vote for a white Democrat would have to be less than the white vote for Obama. I just don’t see this as realistic. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1007 "2013-07-02T19:19:45Z")
It’s kind of insulting, actually, speaking as a white guy. It assumes that whites will always vote racial resentment, which is just vile. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1008 "2013-07-02T19:29:17Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > It’s kind of insulting, actually, speaking as a white guy. It assumes that whites will always vote racial resentment, which is just vile. Or else that what the GOP stands for is generally speaking good for white people, which is just ludicrous. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1009 "2013-07-02T19:46:38Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > In order for your math to work, the white vote for a white Democrat would have to be less than the white vote for Obama. I just don’t see this as realistic. Or maybe your numbers are skewed. 😉 Anyhoo, the Electoral College already looks out of reach for the GOP, regardless of the popular vote however you count it - especially when Texas flips, which it would have already if the Hispanic turnout there had equalled the white turnout. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1010 "2013-07-02T20:37:55Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > **Adaher** : I can easily see Republicans winning 80-90% of the white vote nationwide if Democrats maintain their current course. > > You are very, very alone in this opinion. It is ludicrous on the face of it. It’s no more insane than thinking that 80-90%, or even 70%, of Hispanics will vote Democrat. yet Democrats are counting on that as if their race is enough to make then vote a certain way. Race is either determinitive of voting behavior or it isn’t. It can’t be determinitive for one group but not for another. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1011 "2013-07-02T20:39:26Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > It’s kind of insulting, actually, speaking as a white guy. It assumes that whites will always vote racial resentment, which is just vile. Is that how minorities vote? Why is there an assumption that minorities will always be Democratic voters by huge margins? I’m not assuming that anyone will vote by racial resentment, but if you have a party that supposedly represents white interests and another that supposedly is looking out for minorities, voters will start to settle into those two camps. And for that, I blame the Democrats. Republicans haven’t changed to become the anti-minority party. They are still the same small government party they were 50 years ago. Democrats, on the other hand, have fanned the flames of racial resentment and fear to win votes. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1012 "2013-07-02T20:45:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Race is either determinitive of voting behavior or it isn’t. It can’t be determinitive for one group but not for another. Of course it can, if the groups are being treated differently. Minorities don’t live in a vacuum where nothing the parties say is audible. They aren’t voting Democratic because they are genetically disposed to vote Democratic. They are voting Democratic because the Republican party appears to contemn them and view them as the enemy. It would be hard for a majority race to be in a similar position with only two parties. ETA: As a white person, I see the Republicans as looking out for rich white Christians and the Democrats as looking out for everyone equally. I am not threatened by positive attention being shown to minorities. It makes my life better and richer. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1013 "2013-07-02T20:46:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Is that how minorities vote? Why is there an assumption that minorities will always be Democratic voters by huge margins? Because they heard Republicans think they can win without them. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1014 "2013-07-02T20:48:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans haven’t changed to become the anti-minority party. They are still the same small government party they were 50 years ago. Gee, what happened fifty years ago that put the GOP on the wrong side of history? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1015 "2013-07-02T20:56:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Is that how minorities vote? Why is there an assumption that minorities will always be Democratic voters by huge margins? Extrapolation from the data, for one thing. That isn’t an assumption in the skewed sense you’re thinking of it. For another, there’s the fact that immigrants pretty much by definition aren’t going to be attracted to a party that fears and scorns immigrants, or in general to one that indulges fear of change, the sort of change that immigrants pretty much by definition have embraced. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1016 "2013-07-02T21:06:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They are still the same small government party they were 50 years ago. Republican Administrations have been in office for 28 of those years and we have yet to see any hint out of any of them that the GOP is the party of small government. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1017 "2013-07-02T21:09:16Z")
The data shows both minorities and whites voting more and more as a bloc. Your assumption is that minorities will continue to vote as a bloc while whites remain a swing group with a GOP lean. And if Democrats aren’t alienating whites, why are whites not supporting the Democrats? Will Democrats ever figure out why they are losing the white vote by a large margin? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1018 "2013-07-02T21:17:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And if Democrats aren’t alienating whites, why are whites not supporting the Democrats? Will Democrats ever figure out why they are losing the white vote by a large margin? The Democrats share of the white vote has been growing in every presidential election since 1996. We are doing something right. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1019 "2013-07-02T21:38:24Z")
That’s wrong: 2000-54% GOP [http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/exitpolls.htm](http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/exitpolls.htm) 2004-58% GOP [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html) 2008-55% GOP > **[Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com](https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1)** > > Latest results, headlines and video, candidates' positions on the issues, fundraising totals, States to Watch news and analysis, and a unique side-by-side visual comparison of the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. 2012-59% GOP, 39% Democrat [http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president) ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2013, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224/1020 "2013-07-02T21:39:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Is that how minorities vote? Why is there an assumption that minorities will always be Democratic voters by huge margins? > [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Because they heard Republicans think they can win without them. And because they heard what Republicans think of them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-republicans-ever-figure-out-why-they-lost/645224.md?page=52)